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NFL Odds: Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers

Written October 11, 2009 by Rock Henderson

The Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers clash this Sunday in a important NFC game between two 1 loss teams. The 49ers have been a pleasant surprise through four games, posting a 3-1 record behind a strong defense and efficient offense. Head coach Mike Singletary has made an early case for coach of the year with the results he has delivered to the Bay area. Atlanta comes into this match-up off their bye week and hopes to get back on the winning side of things after a tough loss at New England. They are led by 2nd year quarterback Matt Ryan and talented running back Michael Turner. The NFL odds currently show the San Francisco 49ers favored by 2.5 points at home with a total set for 40.5.

When head coach Mike Smith took over the Falcons after leaving his position with the Jacksonville Jaguars he knew what he was getting himself into. Troubled QB Michael Vick had just been arrested on dog fighting charges and Atlanta was coming off of a 4-12 season. The rebuilding project was put into place when they drafted Matt Ryan out of Boston College 3rd overall. Little did Smith know that his rookie quarterback would play like a seasoned veteran and free agent acquisition Michael Turner rushed for 1700 yards and 17 touchdowns to lead the Falcons into the playoffs in Smith’s first year. Atlanta continues to add weapons to their offense arsenal as they signed TE Tony Gonzalez in the off season. Gonzalez is leading the team in catches with 13 and has also caught two of Ryan’s five touchdown passes. The Falcon running attack has yet get on track in 2009 as Turner is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. 75 is the key number for Turner to reach rushing as the Falcons win 63% of the time when he attains that number.

Mike Singletary made his famous statement last season after an embarrassing loss to Seattle that “he wants winners” and winners is exactly what he has gotten. The Hall of Fame linebacker has transformed the 49er defense into one of the top units in the NFL as they rank 4th against the run. They recovered two fumbles for touchdowns and LB Patrick Willis intercepted a Kyle Boller pass and took it to the house for San Francisco’s third defensive touchdown last week. The offensive side of the ball received good news earlier this week when 1st round draft pick Michael Crabtree decided to end his holdout and agreed to a six year deal. Crabtree’s presence should give the 49ers exactly what they were missing, a big play wide receiver that can take some of the pressure off of RB Frank Gore. The fifth year running back was off to a nice start as he totaled 237 yards and three touchdowns in two games before going down with an injury on his first carry against Minnesota in Week 3. He will most likely miss the Atlanta game and could possibly return after their bye week on October 25th.

San Francisco is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season and has the city thinking of a return to their glory days in the 90’s. While the Gore injury definitely hurts their running game, the defense has been able to turn turnovers into points. Atlanta is in a nice spot to get the cover here with two weeks to prepare for the 49ers and everyone healthy. If the number gets up to 3, take Atlanta and cash that ticket in. Play: Atlanta +3, if anything below pass.

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One Response to “NFL Odds: Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers”

M on October 11th, 2009 8:56 am

I think this is a good piece of advice. Most handicappers I’ve read this morning are taking SF minus the points, but I really don’t think that’s a good idea, considering Matt Ryan has had two weeks to prepare.

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