Falcons Bears Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Sunday two of the NFC’s best from a year ago will face off opening week, as the Chicago Bears host the Atlanta Falcons. Chicago surprised everyone by winning the NFC North with a 11-5 regular season finish, but their Super Bowl dreams were put a rest by the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a 13-3 regular season mark, but were upset at home 21-48 by Green Bay. Kickoff for this week 1 matchup is scheduled for 12:00 ET.

To give you an idea of who is expected to win this game, oddsmakers have Atlanta favored by 3-points over Chicago with the total set at 40.5 points.

Atlanta Falcons:

Atlanta made a couple of big moves this offseason that they believe will have them back on top the NFC in 2011. First they traded up to get Alabama wide out Julio Jones in the first round of the NFL draft. Jones gives Atlanta that speedy receiver on the outside that will not only open up the field, but it will take a lot of pressure of star wide out Roddy White. The other big move the Falcons made this offseason was adding veteran defensive end Ray Edwards to team up with Pro Bowl defensive end John Abraham. The Falcons desperately needed someone to compliment Abraham, and Edwards should do just that. He had eight sacks with the Minnesota Vikings last year.

The Falcons are also counting on the continued development of fourth-year quarterback Matt Ryan, who is coming off his best season as a pro yet. Ryan threw for 3,705 yards with 28 touchdowns to just nine interceptions, despite really only having White and tight end Tony Gonzalez as his only legit threats on the outside. Don’t be surprised if Atlanta starts move away from the run game and open up the offense a little more in 2011.

I was a little surprised that Atlanta didn’t make a couple of moves to improve their secondary after they were picked apart by Rodgers and the Packers. That unit is still a concern against the top passing teams, but it might not be as big of a problem if Edwards really improves the pass rush.

Chicago Bears:

Everyone is going to have their eyes on Bear’s quarterback Jay Cutler, who made a questionable exit from last year’s NFC Championship Game. Cutler doesn’t get a whole of respect around the league, but he does deserve some credit for what he did with the lack of talent the Bears have in the passing game. On top of that Cutler was sacked an NFL-high 52 times in 2010.

Offensive coordinator Mike Martz isn’t a big fan of using a passing tight end, and the Bears went ahead and traded starting tight end Greg Olson. They are hoping that former Cowboy’s wide out Roy Williams can give Cutler a go to guy in the red zone, while Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and Earl Bennett continue to improve.

The most dangerous offensive player for Chicago is running back Matt Forte, who not only rushed for a team-high 1,069 yards and six touchdowns, but he also caught 51 passes for 547 yards and three addition touchdowns. He figures to continue to be a huge part of the offense in 2011. Forte isn’t happy about his contract, so it will be worth watching his play early on.

Outside linebacker Lance Briggs is another player that wants a new deal done. If Briggs doesn’t come to play, the entire defense will suffer. The trio of Briggs, middle linebacker Brian Urlacher, and defensive end Julius Peppers are three players the Bears have to have on the field for their defense to remain one of the top units in the league.

Betting Trends:

Atlanta is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 1 and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

The UNDER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.

Find out who Steve Janus has picked to win in week 1 of the NFL by taking a look at his premium NFL picks.

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