New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons Spread
The Atlanta Falcons (11-2, 6-0 home) look to remain unbeaten at home when they host the New York Giants (8-5, 3-3 away) this Sunday. Taking a look at the odds for Week 15 pro football, I find Atlanta as a 2-point favorite over New York.
Why Atlanta Covers
This line may be an overreaction from last week’s results. New York beat New Orleans 52-27 at home, while Atlanta lost at Carolina by a final of 20-30. The Falcons likely just suffered a letdown considering they clinched the NFC South division with a win over the Saints the previous week.
Look for the Falcons to have no problem getting motivated for this game. They are now just one game ahead of the No. 2 seed in the NFC for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They also want revenge from an ugly 24-2 loss to the Giants in the first round of the playoffs last season.
Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 at home this season. Matt Ryan simply does not lose at home very often. The Falcons’ signal caller owns a 32-4 record as a starter in the Georgia Dome since coming into the league in 2008. That’s an incredible .888 winning percentage in his career at home.
The Falcons have become more of a pass-heavy team this season. They rank 4th in the league in passing offense at 289.2 yards per game. Matt Ryan should be in line for a big game against a New York pass defense that ranks just 27th against the pass, allowing an average of 252.8 yards per game.
This play falls into a system that is 58-26 (69%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) – after a win by 10 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
Why New York Covers
The Giants have a knack of playing their best football at the end of the season each year. That was certainly the case during their run to the Super Bowl last season, and after a 52-27 win over the Saints last week, they appear to be rounding into form at the right time.
Atlanta may be 11-2 on the season, but there’s no question that it is not as good as its record would indicate. The Falcons have simply been on the right side of the breaks and close games all season. In fact, seven of their 11 wins have come by 7 points or less. This team is only outgaining opponents by an average of 14.3 yards per game on the season.
The Falcons have really proven to be vulnerable defensively over the last two weeks. They gave up 436 total yards to the Saints despite winning that contest 23-13 in a game that was much closer than the score would indicate. They were exposed again last week, yielding 475 total yards to the Panthers with 195 on the ground and 280 through the air.
New York thoroughly dominated Atlanta in the playoffs last season in their 24-2 victory. They held the Falcons to just 247 total yards. Offensively, they did whatever they wanted to, gaining 442 total yards. They amassed 172 yards on the ground and 270 through the air.
The Giants are 10-2 against the spread as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. New York is 11-3 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Tom Coughlin is 37-22 against the spread as an underdog as the coach of New York.