Falcons Panthers Spread

Written by Jack Jones

The Atlanta Falcons visit the Carolina Panthers Sunday in a NFC South rematch in Week 14. Atlanta won the first meeting 31-17 after outscoring Carolina 17-0 in the fourth quarter. Michael Turner led the way with 139 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while Matt Ryan threw for 163 yards and a score. Cam Newton had one of his worst performances of the season, throwing three interceptions in the loss. The Falcons have won three straight and five of their last six meetings with the Panthers.

Taking a look at the NFL lines for Week 14, I find a spread of Atlanta -2.5 over Carolina and a total set of 48 points.

Atlanta

The Falcons have taken a step back this season after going 13-3 last year and earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Atlanta (7-5, 4-2 home) is barely hanging on to the final wild card spot in their conference. They trail the New Orleans Saints by two games in the division, while also being tied with the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions in the wild card race. The Falcons are coming off of a disappointing 17-10 loss at Houston last Sunday.

The Texans were playing with third-string quarterback T.J. Yates, but it didn’t matter. Houston managed to win the same way they have been all season. They rushed for 162 yards as a team while also playing stingy defense. Ryan threw for 267 yards and a touchdown for Atlanta, but he was picked off twice. Ryan nearly led his team on a game-tying drive at the end, but Houston defenders knocked down two passes in the end zone on the Falcons’ final two plays. One was a great throw to Julio Jones, who got his hands on the ball but couldn’t corral it on the last play of regulation.

Atlanta enters this game ranked 13th in the NFL in total offense (363.5 yards/game) and 9th in total defense (329.8 yards/game). Despite a poor performance against Houston, the Falcons are still ranked 3rd in the league in run defense (90.0 yards/game). Ryan is completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 3,154 yards with 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Turner ranks 4th in the NFL in rushing with 992 yards and eight scores. Roddy White has come on strong after a slow start to lead the team with 68 receptions for 881 yards and five touchdowns. Tight end Tony Gonzalez never seems to age, catching 66 balls for 730 yards with seven scores.

Carolina

The Panthers are certainly one team I can say with confidence that is better than their record. Carolina (4-8, 2-4 away) has suffered numerous close losses all season. They continue to beat themselves with turnovers and penalties, but there’s no doubt that this team has a bright future. After picking up their first road win of the season on November 27th with a 27-19 victory at Indianapolis, the Panthers went on the road last week and played their most complete game in a 38-19 win at Tampa Bay.

Cam Newton played a big role in giving Carolina their first winning streak of the season. He threw for 204 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 54 yards and a whopping three scores. Newton now has 13 rushing touchdowns on the season, which is already the NFL single-season record for a quarterback. Jonathan Stewart added 80 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Panthers defense also held the Buccaneers to just 285 total yards in one of their best performances of the year.

Carolina ranks 5th in the league in total offense (397.6 yards/game) and 21st in total defense (363.0 yards/game). Newton is completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 3,297 yards with 13 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He is also third on the team in rushing with 518 yards and those 13 scores. Steve Smith has resurrected his career with Newton at the helm. The veteran wideout is tied for second in the NFL in receiving with 61 receptions for 1,092 yards and five touchdowns.

Betting Trends

The Falcons are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing record.

The Panthers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games in December, but just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.

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