Falcons Saints Line

Written by Steve Janus

The New Orleans Saints will try and lock up the NFC South when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football. The Saints won 26-23 in overtime at Atlanta back in week 10, thanks to huge 4th down stop that set up the game winning field goal in extra time. The Saints improved to 11-3 with a 42-20 win at Minnesota, while the Falcons crushed the Jaguars at home 41-14 to move to 9-5. With a win the Falcons guarantee themselves at least a Wild Card spot. New Orleans is tied with the 49ers for the No. 2 seed, but unless they finish a game better in the standings San Francisco will win the tie breaker.

Taking a look at the week 16 NFL spreads, oddsmakers currently have the Saints favored by 6.5-points over the Falcons with the total set at 52.5 points.

Atlanta Falcons:

The Falcons don’t get a lot of the hype when it comes to teams in the NFC, but it’s time people started taking notice of this team. Atlanta has won seven of their last nine games, since opening the season just 2-3. Had the Falcons won that overtime game against the Saints, I think the opinion of this team would be a lot different coming into this game.

In their last game against the Jaguars, Atlanta had a 41-0 lead midway through the third quarter. Matt Ryan went 19 of 26 for 224 yards and three touchdowns. Roddy White had a game-high 10 catches 135 yards and two touchdowns, while rookie Julio Jones hauled in five passes for 85 yards and a touchdown.

Michael Turner had just 61 yards on 19 attempts. If you don’t think the Falcons are a pass-first offense, that right there should convince you. Most running teams would just pound the football with a huge lead, but the Falcons kept throwing it. Atlanta actually has the 9th ranked passing offense in the NFL, while ranking just 18th in rushing.

In the matchup against the Saints, Ryan threw for 351 yards and two touchdowns, but neither White or Jones had a very good game. White caught just four passes for 62 yards and Jones had just two for nine yards. Harry Douglas had eight catches for 133 yards and Tony Gonzalez finished with six for 71 yards and score. I expect Ryan to really focus on getting his two stars the ball in this game.

New Orleans Saints:

The Saints win over the Vikings was their six straight since getting upset at St Louis back in week 8. New Orleans is a perfect 6-0 at home this season, and lately they have been having their way in the Superdome. Their last four home wins have all been decided by double-digits, including their last two against the Giants and Lions.

Drew Brees is coming off another incredible performance, as he completed 32 of 40 attempts for 412 yards and five touchdown against the Vikings. That gives Brees 4,780 passing yards on the season, leaving him just 305 yards shy of breaking Dan Marino’s single-season record of 5,084 back in 1984.

Marques Colston caught a team-high nine passes for 91 yards, Lance Moore had five for 91 yards and two scores, Darren Sproles hauled in five for 79 yards and a touchdown, and Jimmy Graham added seven for 70 yards and a touchdown.

The Saints didn’t just have the passing game working. Chris Ivory, Pierre Thomas, and Sproles combined for another 151 yards on the ground. Ivory led the way with 74 yards on 18 attempts. It will be interesting to see how much focus they put in the ground game this week. In the first meeting against the Saints, Atlanta held New Orleans to just 41 yards on 16 attempts.

I expect the Saints to at least try and get something going by way of the run, but most of their damage will come from Brees and the passing attack. Brees picked apart the Falcons secondary for 322 yards and two touchdowns the first time these two teams played.

Betting Trends:

Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in the NFL.

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