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Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Suns/Bucks UNDER 195 at 5Dimes

Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks.  Season averages alone show you that there is some serious value with the UNDER in this one.

Phoenix used to be an OVER machine, but that is the case no longer even though that remains the perception of this team.  The Suns are scoring 92.8 points/game and giving up 96.2 points/game for an average combined score of 189.0 points/game.  The Suns are 17-7 to the UNDER in all games, and 10-3 to the UNDER in road games this year.

Milwaukee remains a very good defensive team with a struggling offense, which has been the case every since Scott Skiles took over as head coach.  The Bucks are scoring 93.9 points/game and allowing 95.2 points/game for an average combined score of 189.1 points/game.  As you can see, we are getting nearly 6 full points of value based on both team’s season averages.

The UNDER is 21-8 in Suns last 29 games as an underdog, including 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The UNDER is 22-8-1 in Bucks last 31 games as a home favorite.  The UNDER is 35-16 in Bucks last 51 games playing on 2 days rest.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

PS – You can’t truly judge a handicapper’s success with just one day of picks.  A monthly sample would be your best bet because you save so much money with this package.  Get Jack’s 30-Day All Sports Pass for $349.95 and cash in over the next month.  You’ll get 30 days of winners in all sports while SAVING $1,150.00 off the cost of 30 daily packages ($50.00 times 30 = $1500). Of course, Jack guarantees you’ll make a PROFIT or you get another 30 days at NO EXTRA COST!

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Originially posted on BetFirms

The Super Bowl is exciting to watch for numerous reasons.  One of the biggest is prop betting.  There are hundreds of prop bets that can be placed on the Super Bowl year in and year out.  That’s a big reason why this is the most wagered-on event in the world.  I’m going to give you a few tips on a couple different popular props so you aren’t betting blindly going in.  Below you’ll find our huge list of popular Super Bowl 45 props from several different sportsboooks.

For those of you looking to add a little fun to your Super Bowl party, we’ve put together a printable Super Bowl Props Pool Sheet!

You can wager on such outrageous things like how long it will take Kelly Clarkson to sing the national anthem, to whether or not Chris Collinsworth and Al Michaels will mention Tim Tebow in the first quarter.  Even with some of these crazy bets there is value to be had as long as you do your research.  You are almost certainly setting yourself up for disaster if you are just betting blindly.

You almost certainly don’t want to put all your eggs in one basket.  If you think that the Giants are going to win the Super Bowl behind a big game from Eli Manning, then simply just bet him to win the MVP at 9/4 odds.  You may be tempted to bet him to score the first touchdown, throw for over 300 yards, and to also bet the Giants on the money line.  This could be setting you up for disaster if none of those props go your way when you could have minimized your losses with the MVP bet.

Don’t try to hedge your bets through props.  If you bet New England -3 to win according to the latest Super Bowl odds then you don’t want to side with the Giants on most of your prop bets.  Remember, props are in favor of the sportsbooks because the juice is sometimes 40 or more points in their favor.  If you try to hedge, then the best you will probably do is break even.  Pick one side and make smart bets like the MVP wager.   A quarterback has won the MVP in 24 of the last 45 Super Bowls.

The coin toss is one of the wildly popular prop bets that fans love betting.  That’s because it is one of your first chances to make money before the game even starts.  Miraculously, the NFC team has won the pregame coin flip in each of the last 14 years.  Obviously, the chances are still 50/50 on which team will get to choose kick, receive, or defer to the second half.  So don’t look too much into this trend, though it’s a very interesting fact nonetheless.

The Giants opened at -180 to receive the ball first.  It has been bet up to -260 and higher at most books.  That’s because bettors have gotten word that the Patriots have deferred to the second half every time they have won the toss since Tom Brady suffered a torn ACL in 2008.  That was the last time that the Patriots elected to receive.  New England has played 65 times since, winning the toss 28 times, and deferring on all 28 occasions.

You can bet on which player is going to score the first touchdown, and New England TE Rob Gronkowski is the favorite.  He led the Patriots in touchdowns with 17 this season, but he is dealing with a sprained ankle.  New York WR Victor Cruz is next in line, followed by TE Aaron Hernandez and RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis of the Patriots.  A receiver appears to be the smart choice as they have been the first to score a touchdown in 18 of the previous 45 Super Bowls.  Running backs are next with 16, followed by tight ends with five.  Quarterbacks, kick returns and defensive players have registered the initial score two times each.

If you want to know which team is going to cover the spread while also receiving a few FREE prop bets, then sign up with expert handicapper Jack Jones today.

Huge List of Super Bowl 45 Props

Props from Bovada

SUPER BOWL XLVI SPECIALS How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem?
Over/Under 1 minute 34 Seconds
From first note starts until she completes saying “Brave”.  All wagers have action, if she restarts for any reason, wager will start from restart.

SUPER BOWL XLVI SPECIALS How many times will Peyton Manning be shown on TV during the game?
Over/Under        3.5
From kick off until final whistle. Live pictures only, any taped pictures or past video does not count towards wager. Half time does not count towards wager.

SUPER BOWL XLVI SPECIALS Who will Barack Obama pick to win the game?
New England Patriots        -120
New York Giants        -120

SUPER BOWL XLVI SPECIALS – Will Tom Coughlin or Bill Belichick retire if their team wins the game?
Yes        10/1

See More Props from Bovada!

Super Bowl Props from 5Dimes

B.Green-Ellis scores first TD            +800

A.Bradshaw scores first TD            +850

V.Cruz scores first TD            +800

H.Nicks scores first TD            +850

R.Gronkowski scores first TD        +550

A.Hernandez scores first TD            +875

W.Welker scores first TD            +800

*includes only Al Michaels or Chris Collinsworth to say “Tebow” from kickoff until 0:00 on clock in first quarter  
“Tebow” said during 1st quarter        +170
“Tebow” not said during 1st quarter        -230

More Props from 5Dimes!

Super Bowl Props from WagerWeb

Will Either Team Score 3 Unanswered Times In The Game?
Yes    -185
No    +145

Will A Special Teams or Defensive TD Be Scored?
Yes    +140
No    -180

Will The Team That Scores Last Win The Game?
Yes    -200
No    +150

Will The Game Ever Be Tied After The First Score?
Yes    +105
No    -145

Find more Super Bowl Props from WagerWeb!

Super Bowl Props from Bookmaker

Total Fumbles Lost (Both Teams Combined)
Over 1        -155
Under 1    +125

Total Sacks (Both Teams Combined)
Over 4.5    +110
Under 4.5    -140

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards
Over 327.5    +135
Under 327.5    -165

Eli Manning Total Passing Yards
Over 310.5    -130
Under 310.5    +100

Total Penalties Called Against New York Giants
Over 5.5    -110
Under 5.5    -115

Total Penalties Called Against New England Patriots
Over 5.5    -110
Under 5.5    -120

See all Super Bowl Props Available at Bookmaker!

Super Bowl 45 Props from BetOnline

Longest Completion by Tom Brady
Over 42.5 Yards    -120
Under 42.5 Yards    -110

Longest Completion by Eli Manning
Over 43.5 Yards    -120
Under 43.5 Yards    -110

Longest Reception by Victor Cruz
Over 25.5 Yards    -140
Under 25.5 Yards    +110

Longest Reception by Wes Welker
Over 19.5 Yards    -120
Under 19.5 Yards    +110

Eli Manning vs. Tom Brady Completions
Manning +1.5 Completions    +100
Brady -1.5 Completions    -130

Victor Cruz vs. Rob Gronkowski Receptions
Victor Cruz +0.5 Receptions    -145
Rob Gronkowski -0.5 Receptions    +115

See more Super Bowl 45 Prop options at BetOnline!

Originially posted on BetFirms

Even if you buy your tickets in advance, the cheapest tickets you are going to find are between $800-$1,200. However, those tickets are hard to come by. More than likely if you are going to have to deal with a secondary market that is looking to make a profit. Just how much the tickets get priced up depends on the two teams playing in the Super Bowl and where the game is being played.

The good news for fans that are still looking to buy tickets is prices have dropped over the last few days. On January 27 the average ticket price was around $4,311, but that number has dropped down to $3,982 as of January 30. Prices may continue to decline gradually up until the game, but don’t expect a huge drop in price. The lowest ticket prices available right now are around $2,250. According to Stub Hub, the price range for tickets is between $2,250 and $675,000. Most people looking to buy tickets at this point are just wanting to be apart of the action, and aren’t willing to pay six digits.

Not to take anything away from the Giants and Patriots, but the buzz surrounding this game is down from just a season ago. In Super Bowl 45 you had two of the best traveling teams in the NFL in Green Bay and Pittsburgh, who are more than willing to spend the extra money to see their team play in the big game. Not to say the Patriots and Giants don’t have loyal fans, but this is New England’s fifth Super Bowl appearance in the last 12 years. There’s a good chance those fans willing to pay for overpriced tickets have already went to a Super Bowl.

Another big factor is the difference in where the game is being played. Last year the Super Bowl was held at the new Dallas Cowboys Stadium, which attracts people to the game regardless of who is playing. Not too mention, Texas usually has some pretty nice weather this time of year. The game this year is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Indianapolis Colts. Not that Lucas Oil Stadium isn’t worth visiting, but it’s far less attractive than the new Cowboys Stadium.

On the other hand, there is plenty of reason to pony up and pay to go to Super Bowl 46, even if you aren’t a fan of either the Patriots or Giants. This game should be as entertaining as they come for fans, as both teams feature an elite quarterback. Our Super Bowl odds show the total currently at 55-points, which means a lot of big plays and ultimately touchdowns are expected.

Find out who Steve Janus has covering the spread, by locking in his 5* Super Bowl ATS Game of the Decade!

Originially posted on BetFirms

Reasons to take New England: While this will be the Patriots fifth Super Bowl appearance in the last 12 years, New England hasn’t brought home the Lombardi Trophy since beating the Carolina Panthers in the 2004 Super Bowl. Head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady were a perfect 3-0 in the Super Bowl before losing to the Giants. Belichick and Brady haven’t forgot about that loss, and it’s hard to imagine there is any team out the NFC they would rather face in than the Giants.

A lot is being made of the Giants pass rush and how it will slow down the Patriots passing attack. In the first meeting against the Giants Brady completed just 28 of 49 attempts with two interceptions, but was still able to rack up 342 passing yards. Anytime you give Brady two weeks to prepare for a defense, more times than not he is going to find holes that the offense can attack. I also believe Brady will benefit from facing the Giants in the regular season. New York gave the Patriots a new look by using an extra safety in place of a linebacker. Don’t be surprised at all if New England runs the ball more than they normally do, especially if New York decides to pull a linebacker for a safety again.

A lot of people want to knock the Patriots because of how poor their defense has looked at times this season, but you can’t ignore the fact that they continue to find ways to win games. A lot of people look at how many yards the Patriots give up, and completely ignore the fact that they allowed just 21.4 ppg (15th best in the NFL) and forced the most turnovers (34) of any team in the AFC. Everyone wants to forget that they held the Giants to just 361 total yards and 24 points.

Reasons to take New York: There is no question that the Giants come into the Super Bowl playing their best football of the season. Most experts thought this team was finished after losing four straight in the middle of the season. At that point the Giants were just 6-6 overall. Things really seemed to turnaround after a horrible 10-23 loss at home to the Redskins in week 15. New York went on to win the final two games of the regular season to secure the NFC East, and completely dominated Atlanta and Green Bay before edging out a win against San Francisco. In reality this team has been in playoff mode for the last five games. New York is riding a very similar wave of momentum that Green Bay used to win the Super Bowl last season.

I think it’s pretty safe to say the Giants once again feel completely disrespected. New York went on the road and beat the Patriots, yet they come into the rematch as an underdog. Sure there are a lot more people backing the Giants compared to the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl, but the players are going to fuel off the fact that they aren’t the favorites in this game.

The Giants defensive line is arguably the best unit in all of football, and will likely be the deciding factor in this game. If New York can get pressure up front it makes the job of their secondary a heck of a lot easier. If they struggle to put pressure on Brady, New England’s receivers will have a field day against a week group of defensive backs. It’s hard to ignore what this group did to the Packers in the Divisional Round. The Giants held Aaron Rodgers to 264 yards on 26 of 46 attempts. Most importantly they allowed Green Bay to score just two touchdowns the entire game.

Most of the quarterback attention is being given to Brady, but you can’t ignore how well Eli Manning and the Giants passing attack has looked of late. Manning has stepped up into that elite class of quarterbacks, and you have to like his chances against the Patriots defense. If he can take care of the football, New York should have no trouble moving the ball and putting points on the board. In the playoffs Manning is averaging 308 passing yards a game with 8 touchdowns to just one interception.

Find out who Steve Janus has covering the spread, by locking in his 5* Super Bowl ATS Game of the Decade!

Originially posted on BetFirms

The winner is chosen by a fan vote during the game and by a panel of 16 American Football writers and broadcasters who vote after the game. The media panel’s ballots count for 80 percent of the vote, while the viewers’ ballots make up the other 20 percent. Fan were first able to vote in the 2001 Super Bowl, and they can do so on the internet or with their cell phones.

Not surprisingly, Tom Brady and Eli Manning are the favorites to win the MVP according to the Super Bowl XLVI odds. A quarterback has won the award in 24 of 45 games all-time. Joe Montana is the only player to have won the award three times. Brady has won it twice, so he can match Montana with another trophy this Sunday. It would only further cement his place among the all-time greats at the position. Here is a look at the players and their odds to win the MVP, and also a few notes about the favorites.

Tom Brady 13/10 – Since the Patriots are favorite to win the Super Bowl, it’s only fitting that Brady would be the odds-on favorite to win the MVP as well. Including playoffs, he has thrown for a ridiculous 6,220 yards with 48 touchdowns and 16 interceptions this season.

Eli Manning 9/4 – Manning is finishing the season as the hottest quarterback in the league. He has thrown for 6,170 yards with 37 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. Manning has been really hot in the playoffs, throwing for 923 yards and eight touchdowns with only one interception.

Rob Gronkowski 8/1 – This star tight end just has a knack for the end zone, and touchdowns usually win MVP awards. Gronkowski scored 17 touchdowns in the regular season, and he has tacked on three more scores in the playoffs. Provided he’s recovered from a nasty ankle injury come game-time, he should be the favorite among pass-catchers.

Victor Cruz 12/1 – Cruz has been the biggest surprise on the Giants this season. He came out of nowhere to lead the team with 82 receptions for 1,536 yards and nine touchdowns. Cruz has 17 catches for 244 yards in three playoffs games, reverting to a No. 2 role behind Hakeem Nicks.

Hakeem Nicks 14/1 – This would be my value play to win the MVP award for New York. Nicks is still their “best” receiver and should have a big day against this New England secondary. He caught 76 balls for 1,192 yards and seven touchdowns during the regular season. Nicks has really stepped it up in the playoffs, registering 18 receptions for 335 yards and four scores.

Aaron Hernandez 15/1 – The “other” tight end in New England, Hernandez is an intriguing option considering Gronkowski is not fully healthy coming in. If he were to suffer a setback, than Hernandez could easily become Brady’s go-to guy. He caught 79 balls for 910 yards and seven touchdowns in the regular season.

Wes Welker 15/1 – The steady Welker was New England’s leading receiver during the regular season. He had 122 receptions for 1,569 yards and nine touchdowns in the regular season, but has been held in check with just 12 grabs for 108 yards and a score in the playoffs.

Ahmad Bradshaw 22/1 – While the Giants like to use Brandon Jacobs to thieve carries from Bradshaw, there’s no question which back will get the most touches Sunday. Bradshaw has 46 rushes and 14 receptions in three playoff games compared to the 28 carries and four catches Jacobs has registered.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis 22/1 – While the Patriots us a running-back-by-committee approach, there’s no question which back is going to get the ball down near the goal line. Green-Ellis found the end zone 11 times in the regular season, and he scored a touchdown against the Ravens last week. He would need multiple touchdowns to win the MVP, but it’s certainly possible.

Jason Pierre-Paul 30/1 – New York’s star defensive end is the favorite among players on defense to win the MVP award. He is the best player on either stop unit, hands down. Pierre-Paul registered 86 tackles, 16.5 sacks and two forces fumbles during the regular season. He will be getting after Brady and could easily have a multi-sack game.

Rest of the Field:

Brandon Jacobs 35/1
Deion Branch 35/1
Mario Manningham 35/1
Antrel Rolle 75/1
Justin Tuck 75/1
Chad Ochocinco 100/1
Danny Woodhead 100/1
Devin McCourty 100/1
Jake Ballard 100/1
Jerod Mayo 100/1
Kyle Arrington 100/1
Lawrence Tynes 100/1
Osi Umenyiora 100/1
Stephen Gostkowski 100/1
Vince Wilfork 100/1
Field 18/1

If you are looking for winning advice for Super Bowl XLVI, then turn to expert handicapper Jack Jones.

Originially posted on BetFirms

For those of you looking to bet on the total, here is a quick look at what I believe will send the total over or under the set number of 55. I will also give my prediction on which side I think the final score will fall on.

Why the Total will go Over: Anytime you have two elite quarterbacks going head-to-head there is always the possibility of a high-scoring game, regardless of what two defenses step on the field. Last year the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers combined for 56 points, despite both teams having two of the best defenses in the regular season.

Tom Brady of the Patriots and Eli Manning of the Giants have had little trouble carving up secondaries this season. Brady helped the Patriots finish with the leagues 2nd-best passing offense, averaging 317.8 ypg, while Manning and the Giants finished 5th with 295.9 ypg.

While both the Giants and Patriots have stepped up their play on the defensive side of the ball, these two units were two of the worst against the pass this season. New England finished 31st out of 32 teams, giving up 293.9 ypg, while the Giants finished 29th, allowing 255.1 ypg. If the two offensive lines can protect their quarterback, it’s hard to see either defense consistently forcing the other team off the field.

There has been plenty of low scoring games in the Divisional and Conference Championship games, but it’s worth noting that all of those games were played outdoors. This game will be played indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. This not only helps the passing game, but it should give the kickers a better chance of connecting on field goals if given the opportunity.

Why the Total will go UNDER: There have been seven previous Super Bowls with a total set at 50-points or more. Only two of those actually finished over the total. Anytime you give a team two weeks to prepare for an opposing offense, especially top notch coaches like Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin, the game ends up being more of a defensive battle.

Adding to that is the fact that both teams played each other in the regular season. In that game the two sides combined for 44 points, but 31 of those points were scored in the final period. Not only do both defenses have two weeks to prepare, but they have first-hand experience of what the other team likes to do offensively.

There is something to take out of how well both defenses have played coming into this game, The Patriots are giving up just 15.0 ppg in their two playoff games, while the Giants have allowed just 13.4 ppg over their last four. Unlike the regular season when you will find defenders taking a play off here and there, you can expect maximum effort on every snap in the Super Bowl.

*It is also worth nothing that the betting public loves to bet the over, which more times than not leads the oddsmakers to set the total higher than what they would if they had to set an honest number. However, I find it interesting that they they have set the total this high. The public remembers how they were killed on the total the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl, and to no surprise I’m showing heavy action on the UNDER right now.

Originially posted on BetFirms

The Giants topped the Atlanta Falcons 24-2 at home in the wild card round behind a dominant defensive effort. They would go on to knock off the defending champion Green Bay Packers 37-20 on the road in the Division Round behind 330 passing yards and three touchdowns from Eli Manning. In the NFC Championship, New York knocked off the San Francisco 49ers 20-17 in overtime after taking advantage of a fumbled punt by the 49ers on special teams, their second of the day.

While the Giants are riding high, they still find themselves as a 3-point underdog to the New England Patriots according to the latest Super Bowl odds.

I’m sure that is exactly how New York players want it. They can simply use it as a motivational tool to get up to beat the Patriots once again. It’s actually kind of surprising that they are listed as an underdog considering they have New England’s number. Manning has orchestrated two game-winning drives in their last two meetings. The Giants rallied to beat the Patriots 17-14 in Super Bowl XLII, and they would go into Foxboro and knock off the Patriots 24-20 on November 6th earlier this season.

New York came into their Week 9 road meeting with the Patriots as a 9-point underdog. Few gave them much of a chance, but they overcame expectations again thanks to some late heroics from Manning. Rob Gronkowski caught a 14-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady with 1:36 remaining to give New England a 20-17 lead. Manning would respond, moving his team down the field and hitting Jake Ballard on a game-winning 1-yard touchdown pass with 15 seconds left. Manning finished 20 of 39 passing for 250 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, while Brady went 28 of 49 for 342 yards with two touchdowns and two picks.

Manning has been one of the most clutch quarterbacks in the league. He set the record for most 4th quarter touchdown passes in a season with 15 this year. Manning threw for 4,933 yards and 29 touchdowns to 16 interceptions during the regular season. He has been even better in the playoffs. In three postseason games, the star quarterback has thrown for 923 yards and eight touchdowns to only one interception. Not surprisingly, his two favorite targets in the playoffs have been Hakeem Nicks (18 receptions, 335 yards, four TD) and Victory Cruz (17, 244). Mario Manningham (8, 116, three TD) has also been a key weapon.

While this game will likely come down to how well Manning can move the ball through the air, it has to be reassuring to see the Giants improve their running game in the postseason. This team ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing during the regular season at 89.2 yards/game. In three playoffs wins, the Giants are rushing for an average of 117.3 yards/game. Ahmad Bradshaw has carried the load with 200 yards on 46 carries, while Brandon Jacobs has chipped in 127 yards and a score on 28 attempts. I don’t expect the Giants to abandon the running game unless they fall behind by a couple scores early.

Perhaps the biggest reason the Giants are on the Super Bowl right now is because of their defense. Dating back to their Week 16 win over the New York Jets, the Giants have not allowed more than 20 points in any of their last five games. New York is yielding an average of only 13.4 points/game during this stretch. They have a whopping 20 sacks while forcing 11 turnovers during this span as well. This defense is playing almost up to the level that it did during their last Super Bowl run. Considering they’ve held the Patriots to just 17 points/game in their last two meetings, the Giants certainly have something figured out when it comes to stopping New England that other teams do not.

If you are looking for the winning side in this game, then turn to expert handicapper Jack Jones.

Originially posted on BetFirms

The Patriots finished up the regular season with an AFC-best 13-3 regular season record. While New England came into the season as the favorites to win the AFC, there was a point in the season when some experts were questioning this team. In week 9 the Patriots lost 20-24 at home to the Giants, just one week after a 17-25 loss at Pittsburgh. The Patriots were just 5-3 overall at that point, and the skeptics were all over the poor play of their defense. Belichick and Brady would finish up the regular season with eight straight wins, followed by a 45-10 win over the Broncos in the Divisional round and a 23-20 win over the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.

The big question is whether or not the Patriots will be able to get their revenge on the Giants. Oddsmakers seem to think so. Looking at the Super Bowl odds, New England is currently favored by 3-points over the Giants. A lot of people will look at the Giants win over the Patriots in Foxboro and instantly jump on New York. However, New England would have won that game by a field goal if it wasn’t for the Giants scoring a touchdown with just 15 seconds left.  Here are few things that are working in the Patriots favor.

The Giants used what they call their “Bison” package in the first game to rattle Brady and the Patriots offense in the first game. Basically they replaced one of their linebackers with veteran safety Deon Grant. It allowed them to match up better with the Patriots two tight end sets. You can bet Brady has spent plenty of time reviewing that game.  If anyone is going to find a whole in a defense it’s Brady. If it means run the ball more to take advantage of the Giants having an extra defensive back, they will do just that. I think anytime you give New England this much time with this much motivation it has to work in their favor.

While the Patriots are the team that’s favored to win the game, the betting public has jumped on the New York bandwagon. It’s a complete reversal of the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl. Going into that game almost everyone was on the Patriots and all the Giants heard for two weeks was how they had absolutely no shot of even keeping the game close.

In the first meeting the Patriots turned the ball over four times, yet still had a lead with less than 2 minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Tom Brady threw two interceptions in that game and fumbled on another series. Those turnovers led to 10 easy points for the Giants. I have a hard time seeing Brady making those kind of mistakes in the Super Bowl.

I think there is a very good chance New England wins this game, which more than likely will lead to them covering the spread. However, the Giants are riding a wave of momentum, very similar to what the Packers rode to their Super Bowl win last season. If you are looking for some expert advise on who take, get on board with NFL handicapper Steve Janus!

Originially posted on BetFirms

It’s always important to look at what kind of injuries each team suffered in the previous game and if anything new pops up from practice. Here is a quick look at the injury report for both teams. Keep in mind that there is plenty of time before kickoff, so be sure to stay up to date.

New York Giants

Chase Blackburn, Middle Linebacker – Blackburn is the only player who played in the NFC Championship Game that is currently listed on the Giants injury report. Blackburn suffered a shoulder injury and is listed as questionable. This would be a big loss for the Giants, as he led the team with 7 tackles against the 49ers.

Mark Herzlich, Linebacker – Herzlich has been out of commission since spraining his ankle back in week 12 against the Saints. He is currently listed as questionable. The Giants would like to have him back, but I don’t think he is all that valuable against the pass-happy Patriots.

Da’Rel Scott, Running Back – Scott hyperextended his knee in week 17 against the Cowboys, which forced him to the Giants three playoff games. As long as Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs stay healthy, not having Scott wouldn’t hurt the Giants chances of winning the game.

Injured Reserve:
Stacy Andrews, Offensive Tackle
William Beatty, Offensive Tackle
Michael Clayton, Wide Receiver
Michael Coe, Cornerback
Justin Tryon, Cornerback
Terrell Thomas, Cornerback
Jonathan Goff, Linebacker
Marvin Austin, Defensive Tackle
Domenik Hixon, Wide Receiver

New England Patriots

Rob Gronkowski, Tight End – Gronkowski suffered what looked like a devastating ankle injury in the AFC Championship Game. However, he was able to return to the game. As of right now Gronkowski is listed as probable with full intentions on playing. This is definitely and injury to keep up on. New England’s offense would not be the same without him on the field.

Chad Ochocinco, Wide Receiver – Ochocinco had to miss the AFC Championship Game due to the death of his father. He is expected to be back and available for the Super Bowl, but he hasn’t exactly found his place in the offense. You never know what the Patriots have up their sleeve. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Ochocinco made a couple big catches against the Giants.

Kyle Arrington, Cornerback – Arrington was forced out of the AFC Championship Game with an eye injury and was not able to return to the field. He is listed as questionable. The Patriots secondary isn’t very good to start with, and not having Arrington would make things even harder on them. This is another injury worth keeping up on as it gets closer to game time.

Sebastian Vollmer, Offensive Tackle – Vollmer hasn’t played since suffering a back injury in week 12. There is a chance he could be available for the Super Bowl, as he is currently listed as questionable. His return would only be significant if the Patriots suffered multiple injuries at offensive tackle during the game.

Shane Vereen, Running Back – A hamstring injury has kept Vereen out of the lineup late in the year. He is listed as questionable for the Super Bowl. It’s hard to imagine Vereen having much of an impact even if he does play, but you just never know with the Patriots.

Injured Reserve List:
Andre Carter, Linebacker
Jermaine Cunningham, Linebacker
Jeff Tarpinian, Linebacker
Josh Barrett, Defensive Back
Ras-I Dowling, Defensive Back
Mike Wright, Defensive End
Myron Pryor, Defensive Tackle
Dan Koppen, Center

Originially posted on BetFirms

Taking a look at the NFL playoff lines, oddsmakers currently have the Patriots favored by 7-points over the Ravens with the total set at 50.5 points.

Baltimore Ravens:

Despite jumping out to a 17-3 lead by the end of the first quarter, the Ravens struggled to put away the Texans. Baltimore had a chance to really put the game away, but a failed 4th and goal from the 1-yard line kept Houston within striking distance. While the offense slowed down drastically after a great start, Baltimore’s defense stepped up and made the big play when it was needed. The Ravens intercepted rookie T.J. Yates three times and forced four turnovers in all.

One thing a lot of people will overlook is how disciplined the Ravens were in that game. They didn’t turn the ball over once or commit a single penalty the entire game.  The win secured a perfect 9-0 record at home for Baltimore. Now they must prove they can win on the road, something they struggled with during the regular season. Baltimore went just 4-4 away from home, which included head shaking losses to the Titans, Jaguars, Seahawks, and Chargers.

While the Ravens mentality of defense and protecting the football has got them this far, some question whether or not they will be able to win this game on defense alone. The way New England is playing offensively, Baltimore is going to have to score 20+ to win this game.

I think a lot of people are overreacting to the Patriot’s defensive performance against Denver, It should come as no surprise that Bill Belichick devised a game plan that shut down a one-dimensional offense, especially when that one dimension is running the football. New England ranked 31st in the league against the pass, giving up 293.9 ypg, and I think Joe Flacco and the Ravens receivers are in for a big day offensively.

New England Patriot:

The Patriots came out and looked as sharp as they have all season in their win over the Broncos. Tom Brady completed 26 of 34 attempts for 363 yards and six touchdowns. Three of those touchdowns tosses went to tight end Rob Gronkowski, who finished up the game with 10 catches for 145 yards. Defensively the Patriots held the Broncos to jsut 252 yards of total offense, allowing Tim Tebow to complete just 9 of 26 attempts.

If you remember back to the regular season, the Patriots beat the Broncos 41-23  in a game you could tell New England really wanted to win. However, that next week they came out extremely flat against the Dolphins. They were able to rally from a 0-17 halftime deficit to win the game 27-24. A lot of people are wondering if the Ravens can keep up with New England, but I question whether or not the Patriots offense can attack a defense as good as Baltimore’s.

The Ravens finished 4th in the NFL against the pass (196.3 ypg) and 2nd against the run (92.6 ypg). There is no denying that the New England can move the ball without a running game, whether or not Brady can avoid turning the ball over will likely determine the outcome of this game. The Patriots haven’t scored more than 27 points in their last three games against the Ravens and their two wins came by a combined 9-points.

Betting Trends:

Baltimore is 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

New England is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff home games.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this weekend!

Originially posted on BetFirms