2009 Final Four Betting Trends
Written April 1, 2009 by Steve Janus
With the Final Four all set for this Saturday, I’m taking a look at the college basketball betting trends heading into the this weekend’s big match ups.
Moneyline Dogs – Underdogs have been money since 2002 in the Final Four. Dogs are 9-4 against the spread over the past 7 years (one push). What’s interesting about this year’s field is that North Carolina is the biggest favorite in college basketball betting history with their 7.5 point spread against Villanova. Before UNC, the Florida Gators held that honor when they were favored by 6.5 over George Mason in 2006. Looking back at the last 14 years of the NCAA Tournament, it appears that taking the underdog on the moneyline is a better bet than taking them against the spread. Puppies are 15-13 against the spread, but 12-16 straight up. With Villanova at +270 and Michigan State +155, those with the cojones to play the underdogs on the moneyline could be looking at a very nice payday. Be sure to check the NCAA basketball odds on every game before you bet this Saturday.
North Carolina with Roy Williams - Ever since Roy Williams took over as head coach of the Tar Heels, they’ve been money in the NCAA tournament. They are 8-1 both straight up and against the spread over the past two tournaments and 15-8 ATS and 19-4 SU in all of the tournament games that Williams has coached. In last year’s Final Four the Tar Heels were blown out by Kansas 84-66 as 2.5 point favorites, but, as history has shown, North Carolina has almost always been a smart bet in tournament play during Williams’ tenure.
Villanova and the Over - It’s safe to say that not many people, including the “experts” saw Villanova’s run to the Final Four coming. Since February 4th, however, the ‘Cats have been on fire. Since that date they’ve averaged 8.1 points per game. Because they play great defense and aren’t thought of as a high-scoring team, the total in their games is often set much lower than it probably should be. Savvy bettors could have cashed in on an 11-5 ‘Over’ winning streak between 2/4 and now. Taking the over with the Wildcats in the NCAA tournament has also been a profitable venture as 3 of their 4 games have sailed over the number.
Izzo a Good Bet in the Big Dance - Tom Izzo has built a great tradition at Michigan State, and his teams have been impressive against the spread in tournamnet play. The Spartans are 4-0 against the spread this season and an incredible 21-8-1 ATS in Izzo’s last 30 tournament games coached. Michigan State last made it to the Final Four in 2005, and were blown out by North Carolina, but they were 4-0 ATS to that point. Before that the Spartans won a National Championship under Izzo in 2000, going 5-1 ATS during the tournament, covering in both their Final Four matchup and the championship round.
Get top rated college basketball picks for the Final Four with the expert handicappers at Betfirms.
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:
- 2009 Final Four Expert Picks
- Final Four Betting Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels
- 2009 Final Four Betting Props
- Final Four Betting Preview: Villanova Wildcats
- Michigan State Spartans Final Four Betting Preview
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