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Florida at Auburn Odds

The 24th-ranked Auburn Tigers host the Florida Gators Saturday in a key SEC showdown. Both teams are looking to bounce back from blowout road losses last week against Top 10 opponents. These schools haven’t squared off since 2007, where Auburn pulled out a stunning 20-17 victory at The Swamp as 17-point underdogs. The Tigers have won three of the last four in this series dating back to 2001, though Florida won seven straight prior.

Taking a look at the most recent college football lines, I find a spread of Auburn -1 over Florida.

Auburn

The Tigers were expected to suffer a down year this season with such little experience returning from last year’s national championship team. So far, they have been very competitive despite a tough schedule. Auburn (4-2, 2-1 SEC) has faced three Top 25 opponents already, beating then-No. 16 Mississippi State 41-34 and then-No. 10 South Carolina 16-13. Their two losses have against Clemson and then-No. 10 Arkansas by a combined score of 76-38. Clemson is now ranked No. 8 in the country.

Auburn jumped out to a 14-7 lead in the first quarter last week against Arkansas, only to be shut out the rest of the way in a 38-14 setback. The Razorbacks only outgained the Tigers 438-395, but they took advantage of three costly Auburn interceptions. Barrett Trotter finished just 6 of 19 passing for 81 yards with one pick. Freshman Kiehl Frazier was effective as a runner at quarterback, but he went just 2 of 4 passing for 18 yards and threw two interceptions.

Largely due to their difficult schedule, the Tigers rank just 79th in total offense (374.7 yards/game) and 103rd in total defense (439.5 yards/game). They have been effective on the ground at 27th in rushing offense (204.0 yards/game). Their biggest weakness in a run defense that is 100th in the land (201.8 yards/game).

Trotter is completing 56.0 percent of his passes for 976 yards and nine touchdowns to six interceptions. Michael Dyer has been a load on the ground, rushing for 679 yards (5.5/carry) and eight touchdowns. They played without leading receiver Emory Blake (19 receptions, 333 yards, four TD) last week, and he is listed as day-to-day with a foot injury. Travon Reed (13 catches, 91 yards) remains out with a shoulder injury.

Florida

After a 4-0 start to the season, the Gators have received a harsh taste of reality over the last two weeks. They suffered their first loss of the season on October 1st to then-No. 3 Alabama 38-10. Florida (4-2, 2-2 SEC) had to travel last Saturday to play No. 1 LSU, losing by a final of 41-11. They will now face their third ranked opponent in as many weeks when they visit No. 24 Auburn Saturday.

Florida was forced to start third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett against LSU last week after senior John Brantley and freshman Jeff Driskel suffered ankle injuries the previous week against Alabama. Brisset finished 8 of 14 passing for 94 yards and one touchdown to two interceptions. Also slowed by an ankle injury was Jeff Demps, who rushed only twice for zero yards. LSU outgained Florida 453-213 behind a dominant effort defensively.

The Gators still rank 11th in the country in total defense (291.0 yards/game) despite their poor showings the last two weeks. Florida has dropped all the way down to 74th in total offense (380.3 yards/game) largely due to the injury to Brantley. He and Driskel are both listed as day-to-day, and as of this writing it’s not certain whether either will be able to go Saturday. Demps is also day-to-day.

Carrying the offensive load for the Gators all season has been Chris Rainey, who has rushed for 467 yards and two touchdowns. He is also Florida’s leading receiver with 16 grabs for 245 yards and two scores. Demps has rushed for 324 yards (8.3/carry) with four touchdowns as well. Brantley was effective before getting injured, completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 942 yards and five touchdowns to three interceptions.

Betting Trends

Auburn is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Florida, covering all four times as an underdog, and winning three outright. The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games. However, Auburn is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss.

The Gators are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Florida is just 2-7-1 AS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record, though.