10% UNLIMITED Bonus from Bodog!
Get a 10% deposit bonus when you open a new sportsbook account with Bodog!

BetUS $500 Match Bonus
Sign up for a new account with BetUS and deposit $500 or more to get a $500 match bonus.

Florida State at Boston College Football Picks

Written October 2, 2009 by Jack Jones

Two teams that are off to disappointing starts square off in ACC action on Saturday when Florida State visits Boston College. The early college football odds show the Seminoles as 4-point road favorites over the Eagles and if you are going to do any football betting on this game then you might want to take a look at the $500 match bonus that BetUS is currently offering our readers. Of course, you are going to have a better chance of cashing bets on Saturday if you follow the college football picks offered by our best football handicappers.

For the free football picks our guys are offering on this game, there is an even split. Let’s take a look at each ones reasons why.

Robbie Gainous says to lay the points with Florida State. Bobby Bowden’s troops make their way to Chestnut Hill to face ACC rival Boston College on Saturday. Boston College is coming off an OT win over Wake Forest while the Seminoles are licking their wounds after losing at home as a two touchdown favorite to little brother University of South Florida.

Boston College has struggled this season and almost blew the game with Wake last week leading 24 to 10 at the halfway point of the fourth quarter and their defense couldn’t hold the lead it took overtime to finally secure the ?W?.

Eagle’s freshman QB Dave Shinskie will face a much tougher opponent this week with the FSU defense more athletic and certainly faster than that of the Wake Forest team he saw last week. BC passing attack was 18 of 29 for 228 yards in the win over the Deacons and their rushing attack added an additional 170 yards over land. They will find the going much tougher this week especially with the Noles speed on the defensive side of the ball.

A week earlier the Boston College Eagles faced Clemson which has similar speed on defense and they held the Eagles to 29 yards rushing on 28 attempts and they were 5 of 21 for 25 yards through the air. Now we must remember that this game was halted due to weather a couple times and it was a rain soaked field. Against Kent State which is well below average on the defensive side of the ball the Eagles only rushed for 126 yards and passed for 223 in the win. They do not have the talent or playmakers to facilitate a win over the Seminoles on Saturday.

FSU is led by QB Christian Ponder who has thrown for more than 1000 yards this season and he has completed over 66 percent of his passes to this point. In their win over BYU in Provo they rushed for 313 yards and Ponder was 22 of 28 for 199 yards through the air. Against South Florida last week they only rushed for 19 yards and passed for 269 on 25 of 37 passing attempts. We expect to see the FSU team that performed so well against BYU on the road.

The Seminoles are playing with revenge for a 27 to 17 home loss last season to the Eagles. The key play in that game was an 87 yard interception return for a touchdown that gave BC an early 14 to 0 lead that they never relinquished.

The BC Eagles are 0-4 ATS as a host in this series and FSU is 5-1 ATS when playing with conference revenge. The road team has also won and covered the last four in this series and Bowden’s troops have covered three of their last four as road chalk. The Noles are 15-3 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite facing an opponent off a SU win. Key Angle for this contest is FSU is 7-0-1 ATS the game following their last 8 SU losses.

A check of the database reveals a CFB System that is active for today’s game and it says to Play AGAINST a home team (not a favorite of 14+ points) off a home SU win of less than 41 points against Wake Forest. These home teams are a miserable 0-12 ATS and have averaged losing to the number by 12.5 points per game.

We look for the Seminoles to continue with what they have done in the past and that is to get the SU and ATS win following a SU loss. Quick note FSU is a perfect 3-0 both straight up and against the spread dating to last season when playing away from home. Lay the short price as the Noles grab the SU and ATS win on Saturday in Chestnut Hill.

PROJECTED FORECAST: FSU Seminoles 29 Boston College Eagles 18

Freddy Wills is going the other way and taking Boston College plus the points: Saturday we will have our free pick on Boston College as they face the confusing Florida State team that we have seen play well against Miami, and BYU, but terrible against State, and South Florida last weekend. One may say this team is now very motivated after last week’s poor offensive showing, but I agree to disagree. BC has a very sound defense and ranks 16th in the country against the pass and is 18th in total defense with their 25th rank against the run. They are also very solid in the red zone and they got a boost last weekend from MLB Mike McLaughlin who helped them take down Wake Forest in OT. The BC team that could not score a point against Clemson is different as they changed some things up against Wake when they started veteran QB David Shinskie who is opening up the running game for the Eagles. Shinskie spent years playing baseball and is 25 years old. The leadership he brings is an intangible that BC has needed. WR Jarvis said, “In the huddle I can feel a different presence. It’s a little similar to what I felt with Matt Ryan with their leadership.” I absolutely love hearing that from a player as QB is the most important position on the field. Florida State got pushed around last weekend against South Florida and I expect BC to get some pressure. On the other side of the ball for FSU they continue to give up big plays and they rank 115th against the pass. I just don’t see a disciplined BC defense giving up many points especially at home. They will limit the Seminoles trips to the red zone with field goals and keep this game within a TD all game long.

If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:

No comments yet, but your thoughts are welcome!

Comments

Got something to say?