Florida State at Florida Spread

Written by Jack Jones

It has been a down year for both the Florida State Seminoles and Florida Gators after coming into the season with high expectations. These two in-state rivals will meet up Saturday in their annual late-season showdown with little more than pride on the line. The Gators had won six straight meetings with the Seminoles before a 31-7 home victory by Florida State last year. They limited Florida to 284 total yards while forcing four turnovers.

If you are looking to place a wager on this game, then you will find a line of Florida State -2 over Florida and a total set of 45 points.

Florida State

A three-game losing streak early in the season really put the Seminoles in a big hole. Florida State (7-4, 5-3 ACC) started to play up to their potential with a five-game winning streak right after that skid, which included four wins by 25 or more points. The Seminoles would lay an egg last week with a 14-13 loss to Virginia after Clemson had already clinched the ACC Atlantic division title with a win over Wake Forest.

The Cavaliers scored on a 10-yard touchdown run by Kevin Payne with only 1:16 remaining. FSU would get a chance to win it after a facemask penalty gave them a first down on a fourth down play. Kicker Dustin Hopkins missed a 42-yard field goal try with 3 seconds left, putting an end to their comeback bid. The Seminoles outgained Virginia 386-316 for the game, but continually beat themselves. A crucial series that led to the loss came when Bert Reed caught a 68-yard pass from E.J. Manuel that put them at the Virginia 1-yard line. They would fail to score a touchdown, instead settling for a Hopkins field goal.

Now, FSU must find a way to bounce back emotionally and get ready to face one of their most hated rivals Saturday. The Seminoles come in ranked 49th in the land in total offense (401.3 yards/game) and 7th in total defense (282.9 yards/game). Florida loves to run the football, but the Seminoles have been excellent at stopping the run all season. They rank 3rd in the land in run defense (84.4 yards/game). Manuel has been solid at quarterback, completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 2,352 yards with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Florida

While it has been a disappointing season for Florida State, it has arguably been even more of a frustrating year for the Gators. Florida (6-5, 3-5 SEC) has not had things go their way in Will Muschamp’s first year on the job. Their 4-0 start was followed by a four-game losing streak. They only have home wins over Vanderbilt and Furman since, and they really don’t have a significant victory all year. The Gators’ other four wins have come over FAU, UAB, Tennessee and Kentucky.

Things did not look too promising last Saturday when Florida fell behind Furman 22-7 by the end of the first quarter. They would eventually outscore Furman 17-0 in the fourth quarter, turning a close game into a 54-32 blowout. The Gators only outgained Furman 453-446 for the game, but benefited from interceptions by De’Ante Sanders and Jelani Jenkins that were each returned for touchdowns in the final period. Quarterback John Brantley finally had a breakout performance, completing 16 of 28 passes for 329 yards and four touchdowns. Chris Rainey ran for 90 yards on 15 carries, though Jeff Demps was held to 20 yards on eight attempts. Andre Debose had three catches for a whopping 151 yards and two scores.

Florida’s biggest problem this season has been on offense, where they rank just 89th in the country in total yards (347.8/game). They have defended well for most of the year, ranking 16th in total defense (318.1 yards/game). Brantley is completing 58.9 percent of his passes for 1,808 yards with 10 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Rainey has been their best playmaker. He has a team-high 748 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while also catching 24 balls for 345 yards and two scores. Debose has turned his 15 receptions into 423 yards (28.2 reception) and four touchdowns.

Betting Trends

The Seminoles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

The Gators are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games, but 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

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