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Steve Janus Bases - Thursday 4/30
2009 Overall MLB Record: 10-8 (+426)
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Thursday:
3* on Milwaukee Brewers -109
The Brewers have come on strong of late, winning 7 of their last 8 games overall. I like this game because I think the line is largely based off Arizona starter, Max Scherzer's potential instead of being based on who he is a pitcher right now. It also assumes that Jeff Suppan, who is off to a terrible start to his season (7.32 ERA, 1.63 WHIP), will continue to struggle, where I think he will continue to improve. Suppan has already started to improve, giving up just 3 then 2 earned runs in his last two starts, both games ending up as wins for the Brewers. Suppan is getting his control back, shown by a drop in walks over his past two outings, and that will help him minimize the damage that the Arizona offense can make. Amazingly, this will only be the Diamondbacks' 4th road game of the season. So far they are just 1-2 as the visitor, their offensive numbers are what really concerns me. Overall on the season they are hitting just .229 as a team and producing only 4 runs per game. In their 3 road games this year the D-Backs hit .126 and averaged 0.7 runs per game. Granted, those games were against the San Francisco Giants and Arizona faced three of their better pitchers, including one Tim Lincecum's only good starts this year, but there really is no excuse for getting shutout twice in a three game series. So far this season the D-Backs have been limiting Scherzer's pitch count under 100 pitches and as a result he's thrown an average of just under 5 innings per game, this is a concern for AZ, whose bullpen is sporting a 5.26 ERA and has converted just 57.1% of their save opportunities this year. Look for Milwaukee to stay hot tonight.
5* Blue Chip Bet on Texas Rangers -118
As much as I like how Oakland's starter, Dallas Braden has started his 2009 season, I do not think his success will continue this afternoon against the Rangers. Texas has earned 6 of their 10 wins at home this season, and they've been successful there because of their offense. In 10 home games in 2009, the Rangers are hitting .311 as a team and posting an impressive 7.6 runs per game. What's really impressive, however, is that the Rangers have racked up an average of 9.2 runs per game on a .311 average against left-handed starters this season (5 games). That's bad news for Braden, who has three career starts against Texas with a 6.60 ERA and a 1.933 WHIP. I would also note that Braden has started with a 2.52 ERA this year and a 1.28 WHIP, but that his career ERA is over 5.00 and his WHIP near 1.50 in 43 appearances (169 innings pitched). Maybe this 25 year old finally has it figured out, but I'm not banking on it today on the road against a team that destroys lefties. It is hard to build a case for Ranger's starter Vincente Paddilla, except maybe that he does have a win this year despite a 8.27 ERA. The logic here is that Oakland, who averages just 4 runs per game on the road, won't be able to score enough runs to keep up with the Rangers, and who knows, maybe Padilla can put a decent start together, he is 5-1 with a 4.17 ERA in his career against the A's.
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ON BOTH GAMES ESPECIALLY SINCE TEXAS PLAYS EARLY...
Originally Posted by SERAF9 
