Steve Janus Bases - Friday 5/1

[SteveJanus]

2009 Overall MLB Record: 11-9 (+408)
----------------------------------------

Chance for a big day today.

Friday:

3* on Florida Marlins +235

There's far too much value here to overlook Florida. It looks like the Marlins are back to their winning ways after an awful 7-game slide. Florida seems to enjoy playing on the road, earning 9 of their 14 wins as the visitor this year. They've also started to hit again, which spells trouble for a Cubs team that is just 2-6 against the Marlins in Chicago over the past three seasons. The Cubs obviously have an edge with their starting pitching. Rich Harden has been solid, going 2-1 so far on the year with a 3.86 ERA, but Harden is just 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP at home, walking 6 batters in just 9 total innings of work in two starts. Admittedly, Florida starter, Graham Taylor, struggled in his only other appearance this year, giving up 4 earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work. What I do like about Taylor is that he is left-handed, and as I mentioned earlier in the year, until the Cubs prove they can hit lefties, I'll be looking to fade them. So far they've only seen two southpaws, but the Cubs are hitting just .131 against left-handed starters and scoring only 1 run per game. I've also noticed that the Cubs are struggling at Wrigley this year at just 4-5, and they've hit just .236 as a team there and averaged 3.9 runs per game. I'm searching for a reason not to take the Marlins as such a big dog, but I can't find one. Chicago's bullpen has been absolutely awful this year, sporting a 5.37 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. The bullpen is a combined 3-5 and has converted just 3 of 7 save opportunities this season. I'll take the Marlins as a big, juicy underdog.


5* Blue Chip Bet on St. Louis Cardinals +109

I don't think there's any reason to get too in depth with this one. St. Louis keeps winning games with their hitting, and I see no reason that they shouldn't be favored against the Nationals. Odds makers must be overvaluing Washington starter, Jordan Zimmerman, who has and impressive ERA in 11 1/3 innings pitched this year, but whose other stats are decidedly underwhelming. Wellemeyer is solid on the mound for the Redbirds. He got busted up by the Mets and the Cubs, but I'm not as concerned with the Nats' lineup and the Cardinals should be able to keep up offensively with anything Washington can do. Cardinals all the way.


3* on Houston Astros +156

In theory this should be a low scoring game. We have a pair of solid veteran pitchers that are throwing well this season, paired with a couple of offensive line ups that really haven't done squat this season. Games like this usually tend to favor the home team, with the last at bat and all, but I'll play the Astros as a pretty heavy underdog. For whatever reason, Braves' starter, Derek Lowe, has not pitched well at Atlanta. His season ERA is 3.10, but in the ATL it jumps to 5.62 in two starts. He's thrown fewer innings per start and walked more batters and given up more hits per game at home and is yet to earn a decision there. The normally solid Atlanta bullpen hasn't been much help either. They've racked up a 5.02 ERA as a unit, and while they've managed to convert 5 of their 7 save attempts this year, it's clear they simply haven't pitched well in the mid-to-late innings. Mike Hampton has made me eat my words this season. I did not think he would ever be a quality starter again, but he has come through nicely for the Astros, striking out 22 and giving up just 10 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings this year. The Braves are 5-2 against lefties this year, but I believe a quality start out of Hampton can lead the Astros to a win.

[CaptainJack]

It was hard not to pull the trigger on that Marlins game.

The other two I was leaning towards the other side, but glad I didn't pull the trigger so I could avoid a repeat of that Arizona game last night and your god damn I told you so's this morning =)

[pitter]

Love the Cards pick Steve, but it was just last week you were bagging on Mike Hampton. You didnt believe in him then and he was at home. Not saying the Astros will lose but that is kind of a flip flop.

[SteveJanus]

2009 Overall MLB Record: 11-9 (+408)
----------------------------------------

Chance for a big day today.

Friday:

3* on Florida Marlins +235

There's far too much value here to overlook Florida. It looks like the Marlins are back to their winning ways after an awful 7-game slide. Florida seems to enjoy playing on the road, earning 9 of their 14 wins as the visitor this year. They've also started to hit again, which spells trouble for a Cubs team that is just 2-6 against the Marlins in Chicago over the past three seasons. The Cubs obviously have an edge with their starting pitching. Rich Harden has been solid, going 2-1 so far on the year with a 3.86 ERA, but Harden is just 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP at home, walking 6 batters in just 9 total innings of work in two starts. Admittedly, Florida starter, Graham Taylor, struggled in his only other appearance this year, giving up 4 earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work. What I do like about Taylor is that he is left-handed, and as I mentioned earlier in the year, until the Cubs prove they can hit lefties, I'll be looking to fade them. So far they've only seen two southpaws, but the Cubs are hitting just .131 against left-handed starters and scoring only 1 run per game. I've also noticed that the Cubs are struggling at Wrigley this year at just 4-5, and they've hit just .236 as a team there and averaged 3.9 runs per game. I'm searching for a reason not to take the Marlins as such a big dog, but I can't find one. Chicago's bullpen has been absolutely awful this year, sporting a 5.37 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. The bullpen is a combined 3-5 and has converted just 3 of 7 save opportunities this season. I'll take the Marlins as a big, juicy underdog.


5* Blue Chip Bet on St. Louis Cardinals +109

I don't think there's any reason to get too in depth with this one. St. Louis keeps winning games with their hitting, and I see no reason that they shouldn't be favored against the Nationals. Odds makers must be overvaluing Washington starter, Jordan Zimmerman, who has and impressive ERA in 11 1/3 innings pitched this year, but whose other stats are decidedly underwhelming. Wellemeyer is solid on the mound for the Redbirds. He got busted up by the Mets and the Cubs, but I'm not as concerned with the Nats' lineup and the Cardinals should be able to keep up offensively with anything Washington can do. Cardinals all the way.


3* on Houston Astros +156

In theory this should be a low scoring game. We have a pair of solid veteran pitchers that are throwing well this season, paired with a couple of offensive line ups that really haven't done squat this season. Games like this usually tend to favor the home team, with the last at bat and all, but I'll play the Astros as a pretty heavy underdog. For whatever reason, Braves' starter, Derek Lowe, has not pitched well at Atlanta. His season ERA is 3.10, but in the ATL it jumps to 5.62 in two starts. He's thrown fewer innings per start and walked more batters and given up more hits per game at home and is yet to earn a decision there. The normally solid Atlanta bullpen hasn't been much help either. They've racked up a 5.02 ERA as a unit, and while they've managed to convert 5 of their 7 save attempts this year, it's clear they simply haven't pitched well in the mid-to-late innings. Mike Hampton has made me eat my words this season. I did not think he would ever be a quality starter again, but he has come through nicely for the Astros, striking out 22 and giving up just 10 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings this year. The Braves are 5-2 against lefties this year, but I believe a quality start out of Hampton can lead the Astros to a win.

See the red, bold part of the writeup? That just means I acknowledge this as a flip-flop, but it's better than nothing, right?

[pitter]

I know Steve. I was mainly kidding buddy! But you actually won that bet because Houston blew the lead and I was on the Astros. I HATE going against you.

[SteveJanus]

The strikes the Marlins. Damn, would have been a nice payout.

[Mystery777]

very nice thanks

[CaptainJack]

Thought that Marlins game was in the bag for you yesterday. At least your Cards took care of business.

[SteveJanus]

2009 Overall MLB Record: 11-9 (+408)
----------------------------------------

Chance for a big day today.

Friday:

3* on Florida Marlins +235

There's far too much value here to overlook Florida. It looks like the Marlins are back to their winning ways after an awful 7-game slide. Florida seems to enjoy playing on the road, earning 9 of their 14 wins as the visitor this year. They've also started to hit again, which spells trouble for a Cubs team that is just 2-6 against the Marlins in Chicago over the past three seasons. The Cubs obviously have an edge with their starting pitching. Rich Harden has been solid, going 2-1 so far on the year with a 3.86 ERA, but Harden is just 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP at home, walking 6 batters in just 9 total innings of work in two starts. Admittedly, Florida starter, Graham Taylor, struggled in his only other appearance this year, giving up 4 earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work. What I do like about Taylor is that he is left-handed, and as I mentioned earlier in the year, until the Cubs prove they can hit lefties, I'll be looking to fade them. So far they've only seen two southpaws, but the Cubs are hitting just .131 against left-handed starters and scoring only 1 run per game. I've also noticed that the Cubs are struggling at Wrigley this year at just 4-5, and they've hit just .236 as a team there and averaged 3.9 runs per game. I'm searching for a reason not to take the Marlins as such a big dog, but I can't find one. Chicago's bullpen has been absolutely awful this year, sporting a 5.37 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. The bullpen is a combined 3-5 and has converted just 3 of 7 save opportunities this season. I'll take the Marlins as a big, juicy underdog.


5* Blue Chip Bet on St. Louis Cardinals +109

I don't think there's any reason to get too in depth with this one. St. Louis keeps winning games with their hitting, and I see no reason that they shouldn't be favored against the Nationals. Odds makers must be overvaluing Washington starter, Jordan Zimmerman, who has and impressive ERA in 11 1/3 innings pitched this year, but whose other stats are decidedly underwhelming. Wellemeyer is solid on the mound for the Redbirds. He got busted up by the Mets and the Cubs, but I'm not as concerned with the Nats' lineup and the Cardinals should be able to keep up offensively with anything Washington can do. Cardinals all the way.


3* on Houston Astros +156

In theory this should be a low scoring game. We have a pair of solid veteran pitchers that are throwing well this season, paired with a couple of offensive line ups that really haven't done squat this season. Games like this usually tend to favor the home team, with the last at bat and all, but I'll play the Astros as a pretty heavy underdog. For whatever reason, Braves' starter, Derek Lowe, has not pitched well at Atlanta. His season ERA is 3.10, but in the ATL it jumps to 5.62 in two starts. He's thrown fewer innings per start and walked more batters and given up more hits per game at home and is yet to earn a decision there. The normally solid Atlanta bullpen hasn't been much help either. They've racked up a 5.02 ERA as a unit, and while they've managed to convert 5 of their 7 save attempts this year, it's clear they simply haven't pitched well in the mid-to-late innings. Mike Hampton has made me eat my words this season. I did not think he would ever be a quality starter again, but he has come through nicely for the Astros, striking out 22 and giving up just 10 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings this year. The Braves are 5-2 against lefties this year, but I believe a quality start out of Hampton can lead the Astros to a win.

Friday: 1-2 -91

2009 Overall MLB Record: 12-11 (+317)

Going to go ahead and pass on Saturday. Nothing out there I'm really liking and I'd rather not force anything. Considered KC and San Diego, but hate rolling with poor hitting teams on the road so I'll just take the day off.

Good Luck!