Steve Janus Bases - Wednesday 5/6

[SteveJanus]

2009 Posted MLB Record: 12-14 (-8)
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Just going to keep plugging away....

Wednesday:


3* on Florida Marlins +140

The Marlins swept a 3 games series in Atlanta earlier this year, including a win against Atlanta with tonight's starter, Derek Lowe on the mound. Lowe didn't get the decision, but the Marlins walked away with a 10-4 victory,scoring 4 earned runs off of the Braves' starter off of 7 hits. Lowe has been great outside of that start this year, but it is to the Marlins advantage that they have seen him once already this year. The Braves have the edge is starting pitching here, but that's about it, and I'll take the value of this home underdog Wednesday.

3* on Philadelphia Phillies +220

Johan Santana is one of the most dominant and consistent pitchers in the Majors, but I'm going against his tonight with the defending Champs in town. The Phillies have destroyed left-handed pitching this season, hitting .307 as a team and scoring 7.7 runs per game versus lefty starters. I know that Santana is one of the best, but I think Philadelphia can cut into him tonight. The Phillies have won 3 in a row, and they are an incredible 8-2 on the road so far this season. I'm definitely not a fan of Phillies' starter, Chan Ho Park going head-to-head with Johan, but I'll take the value on a great hitting, great road playing team in this spot.

3* on Arizona Diamondbacks +164

Good value here with Jake Peavy continuing to struggle for the Padres and Jon Garland starting to pitch very well for the D-Backs. Peavy is 2-3 on the year and currently has a 4.58 ERA. He's usually much better at home, but both his ERA and WHIP this year are up in games played in San Diego. He's also not showing any signs of improvement. His last 3 starts have resulted in an 0-2 record and a 5.21 ERA. Arizona throws Jon Garland tonight, who continues to improve against National League line ups. In his most recent three starts he's thrown 20 1/3 innings, allowing just 7 earned runs and 4 walks, giving him a 3.10 ERA in that span. Offensively both teams have been just awful this year, but I'll give the D-Backs a slight edge here as Jake Peavy has under-performed so far in 2009.

5* Blue Chip Bet on Tampa Bay Rays +160

I think the Rays turned a corner this season when they took 3 of 4 from the Red Sox in Tampa Bay, and I like them to continue winning consistently. Tonight's match up goes like this - Both teams a hitting well on the year in most situations, both starting pitchers have struggled, especially recently, but both have very good ability and had successful seasons last year. The one major edge I can see is the numbers coming out of the bullpen. While the Rays have gotten very good support from their pen, the Yankees' relievers have been terrible (6.35 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 4 blown saves in 9 attempts). The Yankees are 4-1 in Burnett's starts this season, but there's too much value to pass on the defending AL Champs in the Bronx tonight.

Good luck out there!

Steve

[CaptainJack]

Today has the potential to be a monster day...even if you just go 2-2

[The Wiz]

gl to ya SJ,enjoy reading your stuff.....

[cclow1]

You can hit all those bets but Philly because I took the mets in my parlay.

Good look though. I like how you take the dog alot. Baseball is a beautiful sport indeed

[SteveJanus]

2009 Posted MLB Record: 12-14 (-8)
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Just going to keep plugging away....

Wednesday:


3* on Florida Marlins +140

The Marlins swept a 3 games series in Atlanta earlier this year, including a win against Atlanta with tonight's starter, Derek Lowe on the mound. Lowe didn't get the decision, but the Marlins walked away with a 10-4 victory,scoring 4 earned runs off of the Braves' starter off of 7 hits. Lowe has been great outside of that start this year, but it is to the Marlins advantage that they have seen him once already this year. The Braves have the edge is starting pitching here, but that's about it, and I'll take the value of this home underdog Wednesday.

3* on Philadelphia Phillies +220

Johan Santana is one of the most dominant and consistent pitchers in the Majors, but I'm going against his tonight with the defending Champs in town. The Phillies have destroyed left-handed pitching this season, hitting .307 as a team and scoring 7.7 runs per game versus lefty starters. I know that Santana is one of the best, but I think Philadelphia can cut into him tonight. The Phillies have won 3 in a row, and they are an incredible 8-2 on the road so far this season. I'm definitely not a fan of Phillies' starter, Chan Ho Park going head-to-head with Johan, but I'll take the value on a great hitting, great road playing team in this spot.

3* on Arizona Diamondbacks +164

Good value here with Jake Peavy continuing to struggle for the Padres and Jon Garland starting to pitch very well for the D-Backs. Peavy is 2-3 on the year and currently has a 4.58 ERA. He's usually much better at home, but both his ERA and WHIP this year are up in games played in San Diego. He's also not showing any signs of improvement. His last 3 starts have resulted in an 0-2 record and a 5.21 ERA. Arizona throws Jon Garland tonight, who continues to improve against National League line ups. In his most recent three starts he's thrown 20 1/3 innings, allowing just 7 earned runs and 4 walks, giving him a 3.10 ERA in that span. Offensively both teams have been just awful this year, but I'll give the D-Backs a slight edge here as Jake Peavy has under-performed so far in 2009.

5* Blue Chip Bet on Tampa Bay Rays +160

I think the Rays turned a corner this season when they took 3 of 4 from the Red Sox in Tampa Bay, and I like them to continue winning consistently. Tonight's match up goes like this - Both teams are hitting well on the year in most situations, both starting pitchers have struggled, especially recently, but both have very good ability and had successful seasons last year. The one major edge I can see are the numbers coming out of the bullpen. While the Rays have gotten very good support from their pen, the Yankees' relievers have been terrible (6.35 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 4 blown saves in 9 attempts). The Yankees are 4-1 in Burnett's starts this season, but there's too much value to pass on the defending AL Champs in the Bronx tonight.

Good luck out there!

Steve

Wednesday: 2-2 (+124)
2009 Posted MLB Record: 14-16 (+116)

Love how a 2-2 night can be profitable in bases! Phillies only lost by a run...that would have been a nice topper.

[SERAF9]

GOOD DAY STEVE... NOT ONLY THE PHILLYS LOST BY 1 RUN BUT 1-0 I HATE THOSE GAMES...
GOOD LUCK TODAY

[SteveJanus]

2009 Posted MLB Record: 14-16 (+116)
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Sorry for the late post on the STL/PITT game, which starts right about now...

Thursday:

3* on Pittsburgh Pirates +180

The Cardinals are having a great year to date, but the value here is with the Pirates. St. Louis starter, Todd Wellemeyer, is 2-2 on the season, but his ERA is up to 5.28 and his WHIP is a over 1.70, which is even more concerning. In 3 home starts, Wellemeyer has been roughed up, going 0-2 with a 8.40 ERA and a 2.33 WHIP. This is a pitcher that throws strikes, but this year it's been like he's throwing batting practice as he has given up 42 hits in just 29 innings of work. Wellemeyer's counterpart this afternoon is Pirates' starter, Ross Ohlendorf, who has been a big reason for some of Pittsburgh's early season success. Over his last 3 starts, Ohlendorf is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. Ohlendorf isn't overpowering, but he has shown good control and an ability to pitch down in the strike zone and paint the corners against both righties and lefties. The Cards definitely have the edge in team hitting, but Pitt's bullpen has had comparable success to STL's. This line just overvalues Wellemeyer by a long shot. I'll take the Bucs.

5* Blue Chip Bet on Toronto Blue Jays +152

Jered Weaver has pitched very well for the Angels this year, but he can't make up for their lack of hitting, or for how horrible their bullpen has been this year. Weaver is 2-1 in 5 starts for the Angels, but the team is just 3-2 in his starts, a 60% success rate. The main problem for LA has been once their starters get pulled from the game. Their bullpen has a 1-8 record, a 7.52 ERA, a 1.835 WHIP, and a save conversion percentage of just 66.7%. Weaver only averages a little over 6 innings per start, and you can see what the Angels have to look forward to once he hits the bench. The Blue Jays send Robert Ray to the mound for just his second start of the year. I don't know much about Ray, but he pitched marginally for Toronto in his first start, giving up 3 runs in 5 2/3 innings, getting the no-decision in a Toronto win. Unlike the Angels, the Toronto bullpen has actually helped them win games with a collective 3.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 7-3 record. With all of that said, the main reason I'm taking the Jays tonight is their hitting. So far this year Toronto is hitting .297 as a team and scoring over 6 runs per game, and it doesn't seem to matter where they are playing. In 15 road games in 2009, Toronto is hitting .318 as a team and scoring nearly 7 runs per game. The Angels are just 6-7 at home, while the Blue Jays come into tonight's game at 9-6 on the road. The Angels have started to improve their hitting stats (.281 team average, 5.1 runs per game), but they will continue to lose games with their bullpen struggling as much as it is. Good value on the 20-10 team as a sizable underdog against a 12-14 team.

Good luck out there!

Steve