Yesterday: 4-5, -4.35 units
Units remaining: 305.60
6/27/09
$400 San Fran/Milwaukee OVER 9 $400 Wsh/Balt UNDER 10.5 $400 Cincy/Cleve UNDER 10.5 $300 Oakland -130 $200 Florida/Tampa Bay UNDER 9.5 $200 Seattle/LA Dodgers UNDER 7.5 $100 Yanks/Mets UNDER 9
6-1 for 13+ units yesterday. Hopefully this is the new beginning.
Instead of posting the 300 units as the goal, which might be misleading, I am back to the 200 showing I am down 92 units since the start as I try to climb my way back.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09) Yesterday: 6-1, +13.10 units Units remaining: 292.50
6/28/09
$300 Milwaukee -150 $300 Houston +125 $300 Philly/Toronto OVER 10 $100 Colorado/Oakland UNDER 7.5
$1000 NY Yankees -130
The New Yorks will face for the last time in 2009 most likely. Wang will go for the Yanks while Hernandez counters to try to get the Mets a win in the series. Mets are still in a bad way without their stars. When they return, maybe they can make a run, but until then...For now the Mets will struggle until that can become a reality. The Yanks have owned the Mets at the plate. Wang has seemingly gotten better with each start despite his 11+ ERA on the year. His last 2, were nearly identical with 3 ERs, 4 Ks, 6 hits allowed over 5 inngs. NYY lost both of those gms. Hernandez has not had luck vs. Yanks. His recent 3 show him allowing 6 runs on average in 5 innings. Yanks will stay hot, get a good enough outing from Wang, and sweep the Mets in the final IL game of 09.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 2-3, +0.2 units Units remaining: 292.30
6/29/09
(70%+ angles should hit 6 of next 8 sides)
$500 Washington +170
Nats have a 10-0 angle backing them tonight with this one, as this is my strongest of the evening in terms of probable win pct. The Nats are coming off the win while Florida was swept on the road. The public will over-value the home team in this situation in which they are. The Nats are getting good dog money as Olsen returns to face his old club. The motivational factor is in efeect, not to mention a revenge angle that shows the Nats blew 3 possible wins against this Marlins team earlier this season. Nats pen has been performing much better at this point in time and this time I see them holding onto a win. Should be a tight contest either way. Nats by a run.
$500 NY Mets +120
Mets gave us a 10 unit winner last night but after another embarrassing loss to the Yanks, they will be hungry for blood tonight against Braden Looper. The one bright spot for the Mets right now is their rotation as Redding, Hernandez and now Nieve, who goes tonight, have been key. No run support is killing this team. I feel if they can get at least 3-4 off Loop tonight, they should handle the Brewers in the first game of this series. After being held to a handful of hits over the last couple games look for the Metropolitans to fire up on all cylinders tonight and get this much needed road win.
$500 Toronto -150
Halladay will be back tonight for Toronto as he has missed time recently. The Jays host the Rays in game 1 of this set. Toronto needs Roy to get back into the groove he has been in. Halladay, hurt or not, is a must play at home laying only minimal chalk here tonight as he is 10-1 on the year. He is 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA at home, while his opposition has struggled of late. Niemann has given up 9 ERs in his last 3, with 2 of those on the road. Now that isnt terrible but it is when you discuss the fact he has only gone less thab 13 innings over those 3 starts. If he does not give TB a good strong long outing tonight, they will not have a chance. Toronto should be able to outscore the Rays, and if they get Niemann out early they will have a field day on the shaky Rays pen. Toronto by a couple.
$500 Detroit -110
Porcello is a must play off the win yesterday where he is superb on the road. Anderson has struggled at home all year and is 1-4 with a 5+ ERA there. Oakland is usually a pitcher friendly park but Anderson would not agree. Opponents have scored 3 or less in 8 of Porcellos last 10 starts. Oakland has scored 3 or less in 4 of their last 5 at home so there are no guarantees of a big night. Detroit should win this by 3 or more based on the numbers of both teams pitching and hitting. Oakland has also lost by 2.5 runs average in their last 5 gms during their losing streak.
$500 LA Dodgers -110
Someone needs to stop the Rockies before they cruise to a wild card berth and claim another NL championship. The competition has not been strong for Colorado as they have faced some weak clubs and good ballclubs that were slumping. They lost the series to a hot Angles team, and the LAD rank up there. LA has lost 4 of 5 but have yet to lose 3 straight games all year let alone 3 straight at home. They swept Colorado last time here, outscoring them 27-10 in a 3 game series. Wolf is on a bounce-back, and considering this Dodger team pounded Jimenez last time puts a damper on the Rockies winning yet again. Rocks are 1-4 in Jimenezs last 5 road starts. Colorado swept on the road and stay on the road, a place where LA has won 26 of 38. LA by a few.
$500 Texas -120 $200 LAA/Tex Under 10.5
This game is off a similar scenario as the Marlins fade was the other night. Marlins had an easy opponent and went on the road to face a tougher team. Same here as the Angels took care of business at Arizona and now face a division rival in Texas. The Rangers are coming off a slump with hitting besides for two games ago where they scored 12. This one should go under the total of a steep 10.5, where both of Texas totals went under in their last couple. Sully goes for the Angels while Padilla starts for Texas. Both starters have done exceptional this year, mind you Sully has only two starts, but impressive. Sully has not faced a line-up quite like this and if Texas can put up 4-5 they should easily take this one. I see a 5-3 final here.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 2-5, -22 units
Units remaining: 314.30
6/30/09
$500 Arizona -130
As bad as the Backs have looked I think they outmatch Arroyo and Cincy tonight. Arroyo has been awful over his last several especially at home.
$500 Seattle +220
Big chance here as Morrow comes off the decent outing. He previously held the Yanks to 1 ER over 7 innings. I won't be shocked if the result is the same tonight. Yanks have played weak slumping teams lately, way overvalued.
$300 Cubs/Pirates OVER 8
Lilly is coming off a rough start and I look for him to struggle tonight. No evidence states this will be a low scoring game. Both sides would need to not hit and pitchers would need great outings. Don't see it. Look for at least 9 in this one, 5-4.
$200 LAA/Texas OVER 10.5
Look at Saunders and Feldman in this park against these rosters and you would agree. Coming off a low scoring game yesterday, Sauders has struggled against Tex for the most part and this one should see 13-15.
$200 Boston -120
Worth the shot with Sox as small road faves coming off win last night. Smoltz got the rust out after a rough outing last time. He will bounce back strong tonight being undervalued. Hill has been a nice fill for the O's but has struggled in home starts this year.
$200 Philly +115 $100 Phi/Atlanta OVER 9
These teams will hit the ball in this game. Philly seems to be scoring again and Lowe has struggled. Blanton has been great lately but has not had success with Atlanta. Philly will get it done on Atlanta's pen late in this one. Look for at least 12 scored tonight.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 2-4-1, -5.7 units
Units remaining: 320
I am happy that June is over. Gives me a fresh start for a new month and hopefully these 1 run losses stop over the next 60+ days. The losses have been nothing short of brutal, capping off with Philly pitching in a non force situation with runners in scoring position and one out(lousy call). How about Seattle coming back twice but falling short in NY. Morrow got out of trouble several times. They had opportunity. Lastly, was that really Boston who blew a 10-1 lead in the bottom of the 7th and 8th innings last night. Come on. It doesn't get much worse when the capping is dead to rights and you still somehow seem to lose. Best call of the night was the Texas over which came in right in the middle of the 13-15 predicted runs in a 9-5 final. Let's get July rolling.
$1000 Toronto +115
Jays look to avoid being swept today and with Ricky Romero on the mound it is very possible that the Jays accomplish this task at hand. Romero has allowed just 10 ERs in 31 innings at home this year. He has allowed 3 or less ERs in 8 of his last 10. Dominant all year long so far. James Shields counters for the Rays who look to win their 8th straight. Shields usually pitches well vs. Toronto but the Jays finished with 13 runs in his last 2 outings while his previous 6 to those starts saw the jays total 18 runs. If the Jays can hit today and give Romero run support this one is in the bag. Jays are winless in their last 10 games when they average less than .250 hitting for the game. They need hits today and will get them. Jays 4-3.
$100 NYM/Mil OVER 7.5
The Mets have just been awful of late. Their lack of hitting is now bleeding into their pitching as Nieve and Santana struggled recently vs. Brew. Today Pelfrey has his turn. He allowed 4 ERs in 5 innings last time out vs. Milwaukee. Gallardo goes for Milwaukee and shut down the Mets this season over 6 strong innings of 5 hit ball. Brew won that one 1-0. This time around the Mets should muster up a couple at least but it is the Brewers that should send this one over the total. These teams equalled 25 runs already in this series. I dont see the run scoring stopping today. I just hope this is not one of those 2-1 games going into the 7th. Should see at least 9 here.
$300 Arz/Cin UNDER 8.5
Garland and Cueto look to continue the trend of unders these teams have played for years. I feel that this one should see at most 7 runs tonight keeping this one under the 8.5 listed. Garland is doing a much better job on the road compared to at home. He only has a 2.60 ERA away from home, and has looked sharp overall in 2 of his last 3. The problem is run support as the D-Backs have been outscored 55-31 in the 8 previous losses with Garland on the hill. As a team the backs are 2-8 in Garland's last 10 starts. Look for Cincy to win and get revenge after last night but still keeping this one under. Cueto has allowed just 5 ERs in his 3 starts vs. Arz and the D-Backs have scored just 6 total in those games.
$200 Chisox/Cle UNDER 9.5
One of the better totals on the board for today. Contreras has been superb lately as has Sowers. Contreras has allowed 7 ERs over his last 4 games. Sowers is coming off a stunning start at home vs. Cincy. Contreras has pretty much owned Cleveland over his last 4 meetings. How about 4 ERs in those games including both in Cleveland were shutouts. Cleveland has averaged 2 runs per game in those previous meetings. Sowers did allow 5 ERs at home this year to this Sox club but allowed just 2 ERs in his last meeting with them. Unless the pens fail in this one these starters will likely keep this one under.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 3-1, +15.4 units
Currently: -104.6 units
Units remaining: 304.6
Great way to kick off July, going 3-1 last night for 15+ units. Hopefully this month will reverse mirror June. 61 days remaining, a good two full months. Totals have been the hotter of the selections placed. A tally of 11-3-1 in roughly a weeks time for nearly 20 units in profit. Hopefully sides will start doing the same.
7/2/09
$300 Kansas City +135
The Royals are going to give comebacker Bruce Chen another shot tonight. The White Sox look to continue their hot hitting when they travel to KC. Chisox may be overvalued today, coming off the travel after game with a lowly Cleveland club. Royals can hit the ball and should have some success vs. Buehrle. I like the home dog in this spot. All signs point to the Sox as they come off the sweep, playing a team that has struggled, and face a pitcher who gave up 4 on the road last time out. All of those facts have little significants. What is of greater importance is the fact that all signs point to Chicago as an easy win tonight. I doubt that as we have not seen Chen at home. KC lost a home series and will look to win at home here. Play the home dog tonight.
$300 Atlanta -135 $200 Phi/Atl UNDER 8
Look for the Braves to rid themselves completely of their previous slumping losing streak as they have outplayed the Phillies in the first two looking to make it 3 for 3. Vasquez will take the bump for the Braves where he has dominated lately. Especially against Philly in his last 3, which were on the road, just 8 ERs allowed in a hitter friendly park. Opponents have scored a combined 14 runs in his last 6 home starts. He will go pretty deep and limit the pen work which has done a good job of late. Happ will counter for Philly, but this team has lacked run support for their starters. In their last 10, minus the two 10 run outbursts, they average less than 3 runs per game. Happ has just allowed 2 ERs in 2 starts vs. Atlanta in his career. Braves get more on the board, 3-2.
$200 St.Louis -130
Cards get a win after the win tonight as Wellemeyer faces Zito. Surprisingly both starters have good numbers against these opponents. Zito has only allowed 9 ERs in his last 3 vs. STL and Wellemeyer has allowed 6 ERs in 3 starts vs. SF. The key here is that the SF bullpen has always struggled in Zito outings vs. this Cards team. They gave up 7 runs in the last 2 meetings, all in less than 6 innings. Cards averaged 7 runs over the last two meetings with Zito. Wellemeyer has stifled SF two of three outings. Should see a very lopsided contest tonight. Cards by 4 or more. Runline may be more of a lucrative wager.
$200 Seattle +1.5(+115)
The Mariners have fought to try and take a game from the Yanks. They keep coming up short. In gm 1, they tied the game twice. After the second tie, they gave it up in the bottom of the inning. Last night they did the same exact thing. Tonight they send Vargas to the hill to try and get the Ms in the win column vs. NY. Sabathia will be the home starter. CC has impressed me lately, as has Vargas. The difference is Vargas has not shown good road numbers. The Ms are due for a solid outing from a starter as Morrow and Wash did not do enough. Opponents are averaging 5 runs per game with Vargas on road. CC will not give up much but I am banking that Vargas steps up and the Ms keep this close. They lost gm 1 by 3, and by 2 runs last night. Hoping the pattern continues.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 4-1, +6.30 units
Currently: -98.3 units
Units remaining: 298.3
7/3/09
Making progress in July...A 7-2 mark over the first 2 days for over 21 units of profit. Let's see if the month of July does a complete 360 of how June went. So far no complaints. Totals with the win last night are 12-3-1 over the last week and 16 plays. Again, alot better than sides are doing. Everything but the Royals game was on point last night.
Write-ups to follow later today but I am listing the plays now for line movement especially on totals.
$200 Toronto +170
Yanks come off the loss. Look for the Jays to start winning again somewhat as they come off the win and face Burnett who they got 5 runs off of last time they met. Tallet has not really had a bad showing as Jays starter, and held the Yanks to 2 runs in his lone meeting with them. Again, Yanks at home, alot of value on the dog in this spot.
$200 STL -1.5(+125) $100 STL/CIN OVER 9.5 $100 SEA/BOS UNDER 8.5 $500 Oakland +110 $200 Oakland/Cleveland Over 9 $500 Atlanta -125 $500 Pittsburgh +145 $500 Philly -140
$200 St. Louis -1.5(+125) $100 St. Louis/Cincy OVER 9.5
Joel Pineiro has succeeded in Cincy and in his last 4 against the Reds he has allowed 9 ERs in 24 innings. Bailey has struggled against STL and has not had any success at home. Opponents have ran up the scoreboard on Bailey and the Reds bullpen putting up 40 total runs in the last 6 home starts. Look for the Cards to get busy with the bats today. Bailey has not seen many trips to the mound vs. STL. He has less than 4 innings pitched in both his previous home outings vs. Cards. Look for him to continue with the struggles. Cards should be able to get 7-9 in this one and the Reds should not see more than 4 today. Cards should take this by several. Prediction 9-4.
$100 Seattle/Boston UNDER 8.5
King Felix is back. Hernandez has shut down the opposition of late and has cruised in Fenway in the past. He is 2-0 in his last 3 outings with a 0.74 ERA. He also is not too shabby on the road with a 1.72 ERA and a 5-1 record away from home. Felix has allowed just 7 hits in his 2 starts in Boston and has not allowed a run there. He has struggled at home vs. Sox but obviously different ballparks give different results. Red Sox will struggle for runs today and so will Seattle. The Ms have only scored 26 runs in the 6 road starts by Hernandez. Wakefield has also posted just 3 ERs allowed in his last 15 innings vs. Seattle. Look for 5 at most.
$500 Oakland +110 $200 Oakland/Cleveland Over 9
Trevor Cahill looks to bounce back after a 7 ER allowance in his last start. The ball will travel today. Opponents average 5+ runs per game in Cahills last 10 outings. The As pen has also struggled in Cahill road outings. Cahill has a 4+ ERA on the road for the season. Huff has had a great run until his last outing where he allowed 6. Yes, and that was at home. The ball will fly today, as Cleveland has allowed 17 runs in Huffs last 2 home outings. This game should see a double digit figure, and Oakland should be able to score more than Cleveland in this one. Look for a 7-5 final.
$500 Atlanta -125
Kenshin Kawakami will lead the Braves to another win tonight as they face the Nats in the opening game of their series. Kawakami has had a great run allowing 3 or less ERs in 12 of his 14 starts. Since an 8 ER shelling in Cincy, he has settled in and has allowed 2 ERs in 6 of his last 10. Three of four previous road outings were 2 ER performances. The Braves have started making some real contact with the baseball and are finding ways to win ballgames. Look for them to at least get 5 somehow tonight, giving them the win in this one. I can see a 5-4 final here.
$500 Philly -140
Mets finally got some runs on the board yesterday but I see that fade into the night with having to face Lopez tonight. Rodrigo Lopez has not been seen in over a year, almost 2 years. The former Oriole was sent to Colorado, where he pitched very well. How about no more than 3 ERs in his last 5 outings as starter in Coors. Not bad. He should prosper in Philly as long as he stays healthy. I believe he will have a good return back tonight. Unless he exits early, the Phills should take this one easily as Livan Hernandez and his relievers have struggled on the road. In the last 6 road outings, opponents have put up 30 total runs on the Mets. Philly was also embarrassed in Atlanta where they won 20 of 27 previously. Look for them to take revenge on a weak Mets team at home.
$500 Pittsburgh +145
I will take my chances with Morton who is dogged today at Florida and Volstad. Morton allowed just 2 ERs in his last road outing in Colorado. Volstad has been too overvalued at home seeing as his ERA is 4.72 and over his last 3 games a whopping 7.47 ERA. Morton is familiar with Florida as he faced them 3 times while with the Braves. The Fish are just 3-7 in the last 10 games Volstad has started. I think the Pirates will get it done offensively and with Morton allowing just 5 ERs in 11 innings, I like the value here.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 6-3, +14.65 units
Currently: -83.65 units
Units remaining: 283.65
JULY 13-5, +36.35 units in 3 days Totals run of 14-4-1 last 19 plays
7/4/09
Just a few more winning days like the last 3, and I will be on my way. How about that STL game turning around from having 2 losses to 2 wins. Braves fought for the win, and totals go 2-1 to stay hot last night. Small card for Saturday, hoping to go at least 2 of 3.
$500 Atlanta/Washington UNDER 8.5
Has anyone else liked what Tommy Hanson has brought to the Braves rotation? I sure do. It is about time! Once Hudson gets back to full strength the Braves will have one of the best starting 5 in the league. All they need are some guys that can swing lumber and get runs across. Recently that has not been an issue. Against Lannan Saturday, they may go back to struggling. Both starters have a combined 3.56 ERA in this spot. Hanson a 1.54 on road and Lannan a 2.02 at home. Lannan has allowed just 8 ERs over his last 5 home outings. Braves have scored just 6 runs total in his 2 outings against them this season. Just 1 run in Washington. Hanson has never faced Wsh, but has allowed 2 ERs in 2 road starts and has not allowed a run over his last 3 gms over 17+ innings. Look for 5 runs at best.
$200 Pittsburgh/Florida OVER 8.5
I look at these team and starters and say 8.5 runs, are you kidding me? These teams hit the over in game 1 of their series and will do it again Saturday as Duke faces A.Miller. These teams will put up runs in this series. Duke holds a better home ERA and I feel too much weight is based on how well he has pitched at home. In Duke starts, opponents have averaged about 5 runs over his last 3 outings and the same over his last 4 on road. Duke gave up 6 ERs in his last mtg with FLA back in 2007. Florida should put up 6-7 in this one. Miller has not had much backing from his bullpen as he has only allowed 12 ERs over his last 6 at home but opponents scored a total of 27 runs in those gms. Miller already faced Pit this year allowing 4 ERs en route to a 8-0 loss. This one hits about a dozen.
$200 Tampa/Texas OVER 11
Texas totals have been the cornerstone of my totals rally I have going. Already 2 wins this week looking for the hat trick. After a low scoring game the other night Texas opened the flood gates with run scoring going over in two straight. Now a similar low output in the first of this series. I expect these teams will do some damage offensively, especially with Price and Holland facing off. Price has pitched good in several starts but his lack to go deep has given the pen a chance to blow it. In 2 of the 4 road starts this year for Price, the bullpen had a collapse. Price will not last long and Texas will tag the TB pen. Holland has suffered at home allowing 1 ER per home inning roughly. Both teams should put up a half dozen each with a total of 14 or more at the finish!
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