Thursday Service Plays 8/28/2008

[TheFade]

PPP
4* South Carolina -13
3% Oregon St.-3

WILD BILL

CFB
Vanderbilt + 3 (5 units)
Baylor +12 1/2 (5 units)
Stanford + 3 (5 units)

SCOTT FERRALL

CFB
8/28:
UTEP +3 from Buffalo--they both blow

Wake Forest -12.5 to Baylor--I like the Deacons, even in Waco--they keep getting better and better

Oregon St -3 to Stanford--The Beavers are for real this year, as usual, under Mike Riley


PlayByPlayInc. CFB

8/28/2008 BUFFALO -3

The Fall Miracle CFB

8/28/2008
Best Bet! TROY -6

Armvin Sports Cfb

8/28/2008 Nc State 13.5

Value-Champ Sports CFB

8/28/2008
Best Bet! VANDERBILT 3.5

PupsandChalk CFB

8/28/2008 STANFORD 3

ProViewPicks CFB

8/28/2008 BUFFALO -3

8/28/2008 SOUTH CAROLINA -14

8/28/2008 WAKE FOREST -12

8/28/2008 STANFORD 3

Lou Diamond

My free pick of the day is the game between (131) NC State and (132) So Carolina. Take "Under". CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH! That's right, Game of the Month right out of the gate. Start your season the best way you can with an EASY WINNER. Plus a FREE WINNER in the Troy/Mid.Ten.St game. North Carolina State Under is 6-1-2 in Wolfpack last 9 non-conference games. Under is 5-1 in Wolfpack last 6 Thursday games. Under is 5-2-1 in Wolfpack last 8 road games. Under is 18-8-2 in Wolfpack last 28 games on grass. South Carolina Under is 4-1 in Gamecocks last 5 vs. ACC.

Oddswiz

Wake Forest vs. Baylor
Play: Wake Forest -12.5

The gap between Baylor and College footballs "good" teams remains large. Jim Grobe has built Wake Forest into one of those "good teams" which has us laying the big number here. The Wake Forest unorthodox offense should give Baylor fits. Defending against it is hard enough, but asking a team like Baylor to do it the first time they take the field this year, could prove to be overwhelming. We don't like to lay double digits but can't make a case for Baylor here.


UTEP vs. Buffalo U
Play: UTEP +3

This game opened Buffalo -3 and still sits at Buffalo -3. The Bulls look to be a team on the rise. They won 5 games a year ago, their highest win total this decade and return just about everyone from last years team. So hopes are high in Buffalo. After being the laughing stock of College Football ever since they became a division 1A team, it's now or never if this tem is ever going to get any respect. UTEP, unlike Buffalo, has tasted success this decade. They had 8 win seasons on three different occasions and went to 3 bowl games this decade. With no clear cut obvious edges either way in this one, we're inclined to take the field goal in a game that could go either way.

FAO Sports

UTEP over Buffalo

UTEP is 3-0 the first game of the season the L3Y, outscoring their opponents by 9.33 PPG.They are not necessarily the best road team,but will have enough to beat this Buffalo team.Buffalo is 1-2 the first game of the season the L3Y. They have been outscored by their opponents by 22.33 PPG.The only team they beat was the Temple Owls in 2006 9-3 at home.

Bryan Leonard

Vanderbilt at Miami OH

Vanderbilt is returning only 10 starters this season including just three on the offensive side of the football. They lost three players to the NFL draft including wide receiver Earl Bennett who had been a fixture in the end zone. The Commodores do have depth at the quarterback position and the running attack has talent. But the receiving corps has a lot of work to do to make up for Bennett's departure. The offensive line loses all five starters but they do have some experienced players stepping in. Defensively the strength will be in the backfield, led by cornerback DJ Moore who was first-team All-SEC a year ago.

Miami is coming off a divisional championship season despite ranking 108th in the country in scoring. We expect more of the same from the Redhawks this season as the quarterback and running back combination looks weak. They do have a solid receiving corps if the man behind center can find his teammates a little more often than a year ago. The defense returns nine starters including one of the best linebacking corps in the country. Clayton Mullins was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year last season and he looks to continue his success.

Despite returning just three offensive starters the Commodores still have the better offensive unit. But with the Miami defense returning virtually intact they will still hold the upper hand in that matchup. Vanderbilt beat Miami 24-13 in Nashville a year ago. With the offense being down a bit for the Commodores we can see this game being another very low scoring affair.

PLAY UNDER

Terron Chapman

Oregon State vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford

Jim Harbaugh begins his second season as head coach of the Stanford Cardinal with an opening game against an old friend. Mike Riley will bring his Oregon St.Beavers to Palo Alto Thursday evening as the two teams kick off their respective seasons with a conference clash.

Harbaugh was quarterback under Riley when Riley was the head coach of the San Diego Chargers from 99-00. In his first season as coach, Harbaugh and the Cardinal made national headlines upsetting then #2 ranked USC. The Cardinal return 16 starters from last seasons squad and will look to avenge a 23-6 loss to the Beavers in Corvallis last year.

In that game, the Cardinal commited four turnover's while rushing for -8 yards on 25 attempts. They were a putrid 1-13 on 3rd down, yet the Beavers only had three more first downs than the Cardinal.

The Beavers led the NCAA in rush defense last season at (70.6 ypg) but must replace their entire defensive line and linebacking corps. They do return three starters on O-line. The Cardinal on the flip side return four starters on the O-line and five players with starting experience on the D-line and should hold the edge in the trenches this go around. Whoever controls the line of scrimmage will be on their way to a victory and the way the Cardinal got pushed around at times in last year's game they should be anxious to return the favor.

I'm not too sure about the Beavers who have lost their last five road openers. Their losses on defense are heavy and they still have uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball. They must break in a new running back and who's to say if standout wide reciever Sammie Stroughter can return to his 2006 form. The Cardinal on the other hand appear to be a team on the rise this year. They return a solid starting quarterback and should have a much improved defense. Throw in the home field advantage and we like the Cardinal to pull off the slight upset. Play on the Stanford Cardinal for 2 units.

Pupsnchalk Sports

Oregon State vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford +3

Jim Harbaugh begins his second season as head coach of the Stanford Cardinal with an opening game against an old friend. Mike Riley will bring his Oregon St.Beavers to Palo Alto Thursday evening as the two teams kick off their respective seasons with a conference clash.

Harbaugh was quarterback under Riley when Riley was the head coach of the San Diego Chargers from 99-00. In his first season as coach, Harbaugh and the Cardinal made national headlines upsetting then #2 ranked USC. The Cardinal return 16 starters from last season and will look to avenge a 23-6 loss to the Beavers in Corvallis last year.

In that game, the Cardinal commited four turnover's while rushing for -8 yards on 25 attempts. They were a putrid 1-13 on 3rd down, yet the Beavers only had three more first downs than the Cardinal.

The Beavers led the NCAA in rush defense last season at (70.6 ypg) but must replace their entire defensive line and linebacking corps. They do return three starters on O-line. The Cardinal on the flip side return four starters on the O-line and five players with starting experience on the D-line and should hold the edge in the trenches this go around. Whoever controls the line of scrimmage will be on their way to a victory and the way the Cardinal got pushed around at times in last year's game they should be anxious to return the favor.

I'm not too sure about the Beavers who have lost their last five road openers. Their losses on defense are heavy and they still have uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball. They must break in a new running back and who's to say if standout wide reciever Sammie Stroughter can return to his 2006 form. The Cardinal on the other hand appear to be a team on the rise this year. They return a solid starting quarterback and should have a much improved defense. Throw in the home field advantage and we like the Cardinal to pull off the slight upset. Play on the Stanford Cardinal for 2 units. Good luck to all.

[TheFade]

John Ryan

Wake Forest vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor +12

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Baylor - AiS shows a 68% probability that Baylor will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. Love these early season DOGS that have 9 or more returning offensive starters along with the QB. That is the case for Baylor as they return 9 including the QB and this will be a dominant factor in this game. Wake Forest also has a history of not being a solid double digit favorite either noting they are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992. Supporting this graded play and the returning starter phenomenon is a strong system posting a 75-36 ATS mark for 68% since 2002. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points with an experienced QB returning as starter. Don't laugh either as I strongly believe taking a 1* unit on the money line is a solid bet as well. I have seen this line at +450 and offers a great opportunity. We are not going to win a high percentage of these ML plays, but if we hit between 43 and 48% (last 5 seasons) then it will make a significant contribution to the bottom line.

Sports Gambling Hotline

NC State at SOUTH CAROLINA -13½

We like the direction NC State coach Tom O'Brien has the Wolfpack going in, but tonight they will simply be outclassed by a South Carolina team that is out for blood, and also happens to be very talented.

The Gamecocks closed last season with 5 straight losses, that after a 6-1 start to the year. Expect the returning starters - and there are 16 of them! - to be on a mission this season, and expect them to pull away in this game before the final gun.

NC State did lose 6 games last year by 17-points or more, and this looks like deja vu, as the 'Pack is a very young bunch, and is likely to become unglued in this night time road game.

South Carolina owns a 6-3-1 spread mark their last 10 as a home favorite, and that mark will rise to 7-3-1 by the conclusion of this one.

Steve Spurrier gives the home faithful something to cheer about as the 'Cocks take care of business in Columbia tonight.

3* SOUTH CAROLINA

Matt Rivers

For Thursday take the Redhawks of Miami O.

It is certainly possible that tomorrow I will say shame on me for laying points with a MAC team against an SEC opponent but I still will take my chances here with Miami against Vanderbilt.

The Commodores are very likely in for a tough year. Normally they lose most of their conference games and are able to muster a few wins outside of the conference but the cupboard appears to be a lot more bare this season than over the past few seasons and Bobby Johnson's team may be in for a long long season.

Vegas has posted the 'Dores win total at right around 3 under 30 and that is pretty darn poor obviously. They lost their entire offensive line and a stud in Earl Bennett at the wide out position. Compare that to the Redhawks who return a whopping 17 starters including Quarterback Daniel Raudabaugh and three of the top linebackers in the conference including Clayton Mullins who was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year a season ago.

I just do not see Vandy being able to muster much offensively and despite going against some conventional wisdon by laying points with the smaller conference team I do see Ben Roethlisberger's alma mater getting off to the quick start today.

Cajun-Sports

NCAA:
3* UTEP
3* Miami-Ohio
3* Baylor

Brandon Lang

THURSDAY

20 Dime - Stanford
5 Dime - South Carolina
5 Dime - Middle Tenn State
5 Dime - Wake Forest

Free - Vanderbilt

DCI

Pacific-10 Conference
Oregon State 36, STANFORD 16

Sun Belt Conference
Troy 37, MIDDLE TENNESSEE 29

FBS Non-Conference
BALL STATE 33, Northeastern 27
BUFFALO 42, Utep 34
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 48, Eastern Illinois 33
CINCINNATI 46, Eastern Kentucky 18
CONNECTICUT 33, Hofstra 15
EASTERN MICHIGAN 52, Indiana State 17
GEORGIA TECH 40, Jacksonville State 10
MIAMI (FLA.) 46, Charleston Southern 12
SOUTH CAROLINA 31, NC State 21
South Dakota State 31, IOWA STATE 29
Vanderbilt 27, MIAMI (OHIO) 16
Wake Forest 45, BAYLOR 14

FCS Non-Conference
Gardner-Webb 34, TENNESSEE TECH 29
NORTH DAKOTA STATE 50, Austin Peay 15

[TheFade]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

North Carolina State at South Carolina
A nationally televised ACC-SEC matchup is on tap at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, S.C., where North Carolina State pays a visit to Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks in the season opener for both schools.
Playing for first-year coach Tom O’Brien last season, the Wolfpack missed a bowl game for the first time in eight years when they finished 5-7 (5-6 ATS). After a 1-5 start, N.C. State seemed to turn things around with four straight wins, but season-ending losses to Wake Forest (38-18) and Maryland (37-0) killed the Pack’s postseason hopes.
O’Brien’s offense looks to be in trouble early this season as he’s selected redshirt freshman QB Russell Wilson as his starter. Also, top WR Donald Bowens (41 catches last season) suffered a spinal injury in practice and is out for the year. On the bright side, Wolfpack is TE Anthony Hill, who was an all-ACC performer in 2006 before missing the entire 2007 campaign with a knee injury, returns to the lineup.
The Gamecocks opened the 2007 season with a 6-1 record (4-2 ATS) and climbed as high as No. 6 in the nation. But from there, the team lost its final five games (1-4 ATS) and missed out on a bowl game as a result. South Carolina has 16 starters back, including 10 on defense.
The Gamecocks will start junior QB Tommy Beecher, who saw limited action a year ago behind senior Blake Mitchell. Beecher was 14-of-23 for 175 yards with a TD and an INT. His top target figures to be returning all-SEC receiver Kenny McKinley (77 catches, 967 yards, nine TDs in 2007). McKinley has 153 catches and 15 TDs in his career with South Carolina.
Spurrier is 17-1 SU in season openers as a collegiate head coach, but just 3-9 ATS in lined contests. The Gamecocks are also on ATS slides of 0-5 in home openers and 1-3 in August contests. However, they are on ATS runs of 8-3 as chalk dating back to 2006 and 4-0 in weekday affairs.
O’Brien’s Wolfpack are on an 11-7 ATS roll as a non-conference underdog, including 4-1 ATS as a non-conference road ‘dog of more than three points.
The last time these two squared off was 1999 when North Carolina State scored a 10-0 home victory as a 7’-point favorite.
South Carolina stayed under the posted total in seven of 11 games last season, but the over is 23-9 in its last 32 in front of the home fans. For N.C. State, the under is on runs of 6-1-2 in non-conference games, 5-2-1 on the road and 18-8-2 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA



(23) Wake Forest at Baylor
One of the preseason favorites to win the Atlantic Coast Conference title opens on the road when the Demon Deacons visit Floyd Casey Stadium in Waco, Texas, to take on Baylor.
After finishing last in the ACC’s Atlantic Division three seasons ago, Wake Forest has won 20 games the last two seasons and claimed its first ACC title in 36 years in 2006. Last year, Jim Grobe’s Demon Deacons finished 9-4 SU and ATS, including a 24-10 win over Connecticut in the Meineke Bowl as 1’-point favorites.
Wake has nine starters back on a ball-hawking defense that ranked 28th nationally last season at 340.4 yards per game, holding five of its final six opponents to 20 points or less while returning eight turnovers for touchdowns. On offense, the Deacons have the last two ACC rookies of the year in RB Josh Adams (953 yards rushing and 11 TDs as a freshman last season) and QB Riley Skinner, who had the nation’s highest completion percentage at 72.4 percent in 2007 and threw for 2,204 yards, 12 TDs and 13 INTs.
Baylor (3-9, 4-7 ATS in 2007) lost eight straight games (2-6 ATS) to finish last season, finishing last in the Big 12 for the 11th time in the league’s 12-year history. The Bears had the seventh-worst scoring offense (17.9 ppg) in the country backed by the eighth-worst scoring defense (37 ppg allowed).
Art Briles moves from Houston to coach the Bears and has a quarterback controversy brewing between true freshman Robert Griffin, a 400-meter hurdler who expands the playbook with his running ability, and returning QB Blake Szymanski, who tossed 22 scoring strikes last year.
Baylor, which has dropped five of six season openers SU, has lost 12 straight games against ranked foes, and the school is just 2-38 SU against Top-25 teams since the Big 12 was formed in 1996. The Bears are also mired in ATS slumps of 8-18 overall, 5-16 as underdogs, 2-9 as a home ‘dog and 4-11 at home since 2005.
Wake Forest is on ATS runs of 21-11-1 overall and 11-5 on the highway against non-conference opposition, including 3-1-1 as a road favorite since 2005. This Deacons were 5-2 ATS when installed in the chalk role a season ago.
Baylor has won all four of the previous matchups between these schools, but the last came in 1961.
For the Deacons, the over is 7-3 in their last 10 overall and 5-1 in their last six on the road. However, the under is 5-2 in Baylor’s last seven in Waco.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST




Oregon State at Stanford
It’s an early Pac-10 matchup as Oregon State heads to Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto, Calif. to take on the Cardinal.
Oregon State has dominated this series lately, winning six of the last seven and covering the number in eight of the last 10 dating back to 1997. The Beavers have outscored the Cardinal 53-13 the last two seasons, covering both games easily as two-touchdown favorites. Oregon State has also won its last three visits to Palo Alto (2-1 ATS).
The Beavers’ defense returns just three starters, and nobody in the front seven, from a unit that led the nation in rush defense last year. That defense was the main reason Oregon State (9-4 SU and ATS in 2007) closed last season on a 7-1 SU and ATS run, including a 21-14 victory over Maryland in the Emerald Bowl, covering as a four-point chalk.
QB Lyle Moevao returns this season after going 77-of-147 last year with two TDs and six INTs in the final three games of the regular season (3-0 SU and ATS). A big key for the Beavers this year is the return of WR Sammie Stroughter, who had 74 catches in the 2006 campaign but only played three games last year before sitting out with a kidney injury.
Aside from an historic upset of USC as a 39-point road underdog, Stanford (4-8, 5-7 ATS) struggled in its first year under coach Jim Harbaugh. However, the Cardinal return almost the entire defense, as well as QB Tavita Pritchard, who started seven games a year ago, including the stunning 24-23 win over then-No. 2 ranked Southern Cal on the Trojans home field. Pritchard threw for 1,114 yards, five TDs and nine INTs in his limited action in 2007.
The Cardinal are just 2-11 SU (3-10 ATS) in their last 13 games in recently refurbished Stanford Stadium, and they are on an 0-3 ATS slide in Pac-10 openers and they went 2-4 ATS as a home ‘dog last year.
Oregon State is 5-1 ATS in its last six season openers and 21-12-1 as a favorite since coach Mike Riley returned to the sidelines in 2003. However, the Beavers have stumbled in roadies to start the season, going 3-10 ATS in the first one on the highway the last 13 years, including last year’s ugly 34-3 loss at Cincinnati as a 3’-point road chalk.
The under was 9-3 for the Cardinal last season and is on further streaks of 45-16-1 overall, 37-13-1 in Pac-10 games and 16-5 on grass. For Oregon State, the over is on runs of 7-3 in Pac-10 games and 4-1 on the road, but the under is 4-1 in the Beavers’ last five Thursday contests. Finally, the under is 5-0 in the last five series meetings between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE and UNDER

Charlie's Sports
thursday august 28, 2008.

**hit 8/9 last 500*
ncaaf. wake forest @ baylor over 50' (500*)
ncaaf. utep @ buffalo over 58' (30*)
ncaaf. vandy+3' (20*)
ncaaf. buffalo-3(20*)
ncaaf. stanford+3 (10*)
ncaaf. baylor+12 (10*) free play

wunderdog comp

Game: North Carolina State at South Carolina (Thursday 8/28 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 45.5 -110

South Carolina really crumbled last season. Sure, they looked like the surprise team in the SEC when they jumped out to a 6-1 mark, reaching a #6 national ranking. But they then went on to lose five straight to finish 6-6 and did not even get a Bowl bid. Now that's a fall from grace! This may be the best Steve Spurrier team yet in Columbia. The problem is that it may not be good enough given the unreal SEC competition. The Gamecocks are returning 10 starters from a defense that was very solid last season. They should be even better this season. Their biggest problem will be finding a QB to emerge to give the offense viability. We expect the offense to struggle early. This will be a rebuilding year at NC State. They lost 47% of their letterman from a year ago, ranking them in the top 10 in the country in that category. They do return their QB, but they graduated all three wide receivers so expect some chemistry issues early on. The Gamecocks are on a 13-4 UNDER run in the first two weeks of the season. We like this one to go UNDER the total.