Boise State @ Fresno State

[diondublin]

A contrarian opportunity, I suspect.

Looking at last season's 61-10 thrashing, I feel a lot of people will be inclined to bet Boise State here. However, I wonder if it is wise to support a team to win by two scores away from home against a team as solid and physical as Fresno State?

I am convinced Boise would be delighted to come away with any sort of win and also that Fresno due to their style have a good chance of keeping it close even if things don't go optimally for them.

I remember a Fresno game against San Jose State last year when Fresno came back from a deficit by simply overpowering their opponents and therefore even if Boise were to jump out to a good lead there is a good chance they might be pegged back to something reasonably close.

What is more, Fresno have been rather unfortunate in terms of their turnover ratio in the last year or so. Whilst the perennial question for a poor turnover ratio team is whether they are unlucky or just bad, it makes sense to consider the notion that they might be under-rated by the market. The converse might be true for Boise, who have enjoyed a strong ratio recently.

Thusly, if it is true that either Boise are over-rated or Fresno are under-rated then a fair bet might be had on Fresno. If both of these notions are true then an excellent betting opportunity might be present.

For my part, I suspect a little of Column A and a little of Column B. Thusly, a moderate-to-small bet on Fresno State (+8) is my call. I prefer this marginally to the straight-up proposition at 27/10, although that bet is probably defensible.


Good Luck

[SteveJanus]

Great stuff, as always. I can't say I agree with your bet on the game, but I like how you break down why Fresno is your play.

[drklrdbill]

Took Fresno +7.5 and had the u52.5 in this game for 110 to win 100 each. so after they score 41 in the first half, i took the o25.5 in the 2H for 220 to win 200. Already 17 points scored in 5 minutes :D