Adrian's Friday Thoughts

[diondublin]

Some college hoops promise tonight - I am getting more interested now that NCAAF has ended.

I like a number of smallish bets, as befitting this early stage of conference play, two sides and three totals.

The two sides and the last total are the best bets; the other two totals being lesser, but even the 'good' ones are not recommended for any great staking.

Arizona State (-4) to beat Washington

It seems to me that Arizona State are quite a bit better than their opponents tonight, but the spread appears only to account for home advantage. Thusly this seems a reasonable bet because I think the number should be around 8.5

Santa Clara (+3.5) to beat San Diego

I actually think Santa Clara should be going off 1.5 point favourites here so I seriously considered taking 27/20 or better about the home team to win outright. Indeed I have a general policy not to take between about 4-to-8 points in NCAAB because of the late fouling situation that could easily take it over the number when that would not be generally merited (so I take the odds and hope to get lucky). However, at 3.5, this doesn't quite apply so I narrowly opted here for the points. Be warned with this bet as a half-point movement in Santa Clara's favour (i.e. more points) - from 3 to 3.5 - indicates to me that some respected money is coming in for San Diego.

Washington State/Arizona UNDER 145
Pacific/Cal Poly Slo UNDER 127.5
Portland State/Montana State UNDER 146.5

These three totals are based on tempo figures (available at Kenpom.com). According to my personal interpretation the first two totals have been pitched a bit high - I don't think these teams will get going enough to reach these totals unless they collectively get something of a hot hand shooting.

The third bet is very interesting as this number is pitched w-a-y high based on tempo figures. I might expect it to be some twenty points lower based solely on those. However Portland State have been involved in big-scoring games against poor opposition and I think this has artificially inflated the number. They are going to find it much harder to score big tonight.

The big worry is whether their defence is so porous that they will concede a big number - I think that while Montana State should score fairly easily, they will do so in a controlled way using plenty of clock so this has a great chance to go under. Additionally please note that the line has moved two points with Bet365 from 148.5 to 146.5 - this indicates that plenty of smart money is supporting the Under.

Good luck,

Adrian

[diondublin]

Oops this shouldn't be in here. Good thing though because the plays went 1-4.

Totals sucked as they have recently on NBA, but at least the reasoning was reasonable in that the best total, the Portland game, was less than the original number of 148.5 but unfortunately sneaked over the late number at the end of the game.

The other two totals failed comfortably but they were at least indicated as only small plays.

As for the sides, Arizona State won comfortably but Santa Clara were beaten, as the line movement mentioned suggested they might be. I would venture, having been burned several times over the last few months that one should seriously consider cutting back on bets when the line history moves against the intended team to back. In fact an outfit called Sports Insights makes a big thing of this, but adds the interesting additional proviso that the public (i.e. total number of bets) must have been betting the other team, but the deluge of smart money was so strong that the line moved against the public's team.

[Example Chicago(+2) attracts only 25% of the public's bets but the line nonetheless moves to Chicago(+1). This is an example of smart money and one should be reluctant to oppose Chicago]

Anyway, no catastrophe. I will tell myself that I went 2-0 really...won on my only non-contra-indicated side and the only worthwhile total went under the original number!

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