September 4th College Football Service Plays

[TheFade]

Vegas Hotsheet

South Carolina (-10)

EXPERT: The Miller Group
TITLE: 5* CFB ESPN Game of the Month (8-3 TY)
REASON FOR PICK: The Gamecocks have the advantage in virtually every department in this matchup, plus they have revenge on their mind after suffering a 17-6 home loss against the Commodores last year. We backed South Carolina last Thursday and were rewarded with a 34-0 wire-to-wire victory. There's no reason to back off of the Gamecocks this week.

South Carolina is much better equipped to face an offense like Vanderbilt's this season. The Commodores are lead by a very mobile QB in Chris Nickson. He's exactly the type of guy, and this is exactly the type of offense that gave the 'Cocks defense fits a year ago. Not so this season, as South Carolina is now employing a 4-2-5 defensive scheme. Not only that, but they're at full strength. The return of Jasper Brinkley means the world to this defense. Even in last year's meeting, the Gamecocks held their own defensively, allowing only 17 points. Their offense was a no show. That won't happen this time around.

Chris Smelley will get the nod over Tommy Beecher at QB this week. Beecher was knocked out of last week's game, and it turned out to be a blessing in disguise for Spurrier and company. Smelley stepped in and moved the offense up and down the field, with a little help from RB Mike Davis, who ran for over 100 yards in the win. This is a talented group, one that is finally coming into its own under the guidance of Spurrier. Vandy's defense is inexperienced up front, and that should make all the difference for a Gamecocks offensive line that is poised for a breakout season.

Make no mistake, Vandy will get some love from the betting public this week. They dominated Miami-Ohio last Thursday, and the majority of bettors were on the Redhawks in that one. This line may look a little steep at first glance, but upon further review, we feel that South Carolina is the only way to go. Take South Carolina (5*).

Cajun-Sports CFB Thursday

September 04, 2008

8:30 PM ET

2 STAR SELECTION

VANDERBILT +10 over South Carolina

Now a Top 25 team, the Gamecocks hit the road to do battle with the Commodores in the SEC opener for both teams on Thursday.

South Carolina was completely dominant in a 34-0 romp over NC State to open the season, and a national television audience likely came away impressed by the effort of Steve Spurrier's squad.

As for Vanderbilt, they opened the new season on the road with a 34-13 surprisingly easy romp over Miami-Ohio.

The Gamecocks first-time starting quarterback Tommy Beecher threw four interceptions against the Wolfpack. Chris Smelley came in after Beecher sustained an injury, was much more effective, and has been named the starter for this clash with Vandy.

It is hard to imagine South Carolina playing any better defensively than it did in the opener, although the shutout was pitched against a North Carolina State team that really struggled on offense a year ago, and doesn’t appear to have improved much.

The Commodores got a tremendous performance from quarterback Chris Nickson in the season-opening victory over Miami-Ohio, as he ran for 166 yards and two touchdowns on 20 rushing attempts. As a passer, Nickson completed 9-of-16 passes for 91 yards and a score, and was named the SEC Offensive Player of the Week.

Defensively, Vanderbilt held the RedHawks to 340 total yards. The run defense was superb, holding Miami, Ohio to 96 yards. Equally impressive was the fact that the 'Dores came up with three interceptions and permitted fewer than half of the passes that Miami attempted to be completed.

One of our handicapping strategies is to: Play AGAINST a team off a nationally televised blowout win.

As an old handicapper proverb states, “a team is never as good or as bad as its last game”. Blowouts do happen, and when they occur on a national stage, they can leave a lasting impression on viewers. The public regards the winning team as invincible and will think they are a “sure thing” the following week. The oddsmakers know this and adjust the pointspread accordingly, so there is no line value with this team.

Some may point to a revenge angle here, as Vanderbilt knocked off the Gamecocks on the road last year; however, South Carolina is 0-5 ATS as a favorite playing with revenge for a SU loss last season.

We also have a strong NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM demonstrating that non-Saturday teams looking to avenge a home favorite loss in which their offense could not get untracked have had a very hard time exacting their revenge. Specifically, it states:

Play AGAINST a non-Saturday conference team seeking revenge for a home SU loss as a favorite of 3+ points scoring less than 14 points last season.

Since at least 1980, this system is a perfect 10-0 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 16 ppg on average!

We also note that the Gamecocks are an ugly 0-8 ATS (-16.5 ppg) as a road favorite of more than 7 points with less than 13 days rest.

If nothing else, last Thursday night's season-opening 34-13 non-conference victory at Miami shows why Chris Nickson gives Vanderbilt its best chance to win.

The senior quarterback, who wasn't named the Commodores' starter over Mackenzi Adams until 2 days before the game, merely ran for a career-high in yards and two touchdowns while throwing for a third TD.

"Chris Nickson is back, and it is going to give us a lot more confidence going into next week playing South Carolina," senior linebacker Reshard Langford said.

Indeed, after an upset win, teams back in the role of underdog have been quite strong at home in non-Saturday games under the conditions described by this NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM:

In Games 2-11, play ON a non-Saturday home underdog of 23 points or less off an underdog SU win in its last game vs. an opponent not off a conference favorite SU & ATS win.

Since 1997, these teams an amazing 9-0 SU & ATS. That’s right, they have WON every qualifying game outright, beating the spread by more than 16 ppg on average.

While we aren’t calling for an outright Commodores victory, they should certainly be able to keep this within a touchdown for the pointspread cover.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SOUTH CAROLINA 21 VANDERBILT 14

CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: South Carolina vs Vanderbilt Play: Vanderbilt +10.5 (POD)Comments: PLAY: Vanderbilt +10.5 (POD)

Steam Online
Southcarolina -9.5

John Fisher

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt +10

Both teams come off impressive victories last Thursday. South Carolina defense looked stout and Vandys offense looked sharp. South Carolina is favored by DD on road for a reason. They have tremendous speed and depth. This will certainly be needed as the the QB from Vandy almost compiled over 300 yds of total offense. Most of the yards via the ground. I actually watched both games last week. Vandy looked dangerous because they have a couple of playmakers that can beat you. DJ Moore as a receiver and return man looks like a Deon Saunders. South Carolina has to make a decision on who there QB will be after starting QB Beecher looked like a 'beached' whale throwing 4 INTS. Chris Smelley actually better driving the Gamecocks to 3 TD drives. Conclusion: Look for the Gamecocks to prevail but it will be closer that one thinks. USC might be looking ahead to Georgia, practiced with two QB's this week, and will playing first game away from home against some play makers that will be hard to practice for this early. Take the points and VANDY USC 23 Vandy 17

[TheFade]

Steve Janus

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Play: South Carolina -10

Two teams that got off to their 2008 seasons on the right foot in Week 1 of the College Football season, meet Thursday night in SEC action. The Vanderbilt Commodores host the 24th-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks in the SEC opener for both squads. Both teams routed their opponents last week, but only one will walk away with a conference win and a 2-0 record.

South Carolina was off to a rough start in their opener against NC State as starting QB Tommy Beecher threw four interceptions and looked sluggish on offense. Chris Smelley was able to come in, control the ball and keep it in his team's hands.

It couldn't have gone better for the Gamecock defense last week. They held the NC State defense under 100 yards rushing and 100 yards passing on their way to a shutout performance. The defense will be a key component again on Thursday against a more potent Vanderbilt offense.

The Vanderbilt Commodores did most of their damage on the ground in week one, but it didn't come from their running backs, it came from quarterback Chris Nickson, who rushed for 166 yards. Nickson also added 91 yards through the air. Nickson accounted for 3 of the 4 touchdowns Vanderbilt scored against Miami-Ohio, so he is obviously the key to making this offense click.

Defensively Vandy was strong against the run, allowing just 96 yards. They struggled a little against the Miami-Ohio passing attack, but managed to nab three interecpetions on their way to an impressive victory. Defense has not been traditionally strong for the Commodores, but they were impressive in their first appearance of 2008.

There's a lot to consider in this game. Both defenses looked fine in week one, but they will both be facing a more potent offense this time around. That says a lot for the Gamecocks, who are on the road against a team coming off of an impressive win. With that being said, South Carolina is the better team overall. Their offense should hit their stride in their second game and if their defense plays even close to the way it did in their first game, we're looking at a blowout.

Game Prediction: South Carolina 34, Vanderbilt 13

Carlo Campanella

Game: South Carolina at Vanderbilt
Prediction: South Carolina

Reason: Both of these SEC squads opened their seasons with a victory- South Carolina defeated NC State, 34-0, while Vanderbilt won at Miami-OH, 34-13. South Carolinas performance was even more impressive then the score indicates, as they turned the ball over on 4 drives and still won in a shut-out! South Carolina Head Coach Steve Spurrier is one of the best offensive minds in College Football and expect him to make the necessary adjustments so his offense doesnt continue to give the ball away. With a game under their belts, South Carolina plays error free football and routes an over-matched Vandy squad that returns just 9 starters from last year's team. Lay the lumber with this road Favorite, knowing that Spurrier is 9-2 ATS as road Favorite against fellow SEC opponents as SC's Head Coach.

7* Play On South Carolina

Frank Rosenthal
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 04, 2008
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL THURSDAY
301 SO CAROLINA-9.5 SB


Joey Hannigan Playmakers


South Carolina ~vs~ Vanderbilt

South Carolina -9.5 (-115)

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: VANDERBILT +10.5 ( NCAAF FOOTBALL) ^^^ Squares are jumping on the fave as expected. They got their tease as most big favorites covered in week 1 as well as the Overs. It's still in the unknown territory as we hit week 2, but the sharps and the dogs will slowly take over the party as Vegas isn't going to hand out free money on big faves much longer. This line opened at -9 and is now at 10.5 and could quite possibly go to 11 once the 9 to 5 crowd get off work but at worst it will settle at 10 which is a good number to work with and a generous number as we have a home dog that will be under the national lights on ESPN. Both teams found stars in their QB's last week. SC had no choice as Beecher threw 4 int's and got a concussion. SC switched it over to Sophomore Chris Smelley who was instrumental in three touchdowns. Chris Nickson who QB's for Vandy adds the dimension of mobility as he ran for 166 yards last week vs Miami-Ohio. Both offenses are going to have it tough tonight as both defenses played very well last week and really should be the focal points in tonight's match-up. Expecting to see some good defense that should keep the margin of victory close and that means a cover for our big dog tonight with Vanderbilt.

Charlies Sports

thursday sept 4, 2008.

ncaaf. vanderbilt+10 (20*)
ncaaf. south carolina @ vanderbilt over 41 (20*)


CAPPERS ACCESS

Thur (CFB) Vanderbilt


THE SPORTS REPORTER


COLLEGE FOOTBALL

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
SOUTH CAROLINA over *VANDERBILT by 11
SOUTH CAROLINA, 24-13.

[TheFade]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

(24) South Carolina (1-0 SU and ATS) at Vanderbilt (1-0 SU and ATS)
Two teams coming off impressive blowout wins open the SEC campaign against one another, as Steve Spurrier takes South Carolina to Vanderbilt for a battle with the Commodores in a nationally televised affair.
The Gamecocks looked sluggish in taking just a 3-0 first-half lead last Thursday against N.C. State, but then exploded for 31 points after the break en route to a 34-0 victory as a 14-point home favorite. South Carolina, which snapped a five-game SU and six-game ATS losing skid with the win and cover, was dominant on defense, allowing just 138 total yards (49 passing) while forcing four turnovers.
Vanderbilt went to Miami (Ohio) last Thursday as a 3?-point road underdog and rolled to a 34-13 upset victory, snapping a four-game slide (1-3 ATS) that dated to the end of the 2007 campaign. The Commodores had just a 20-yard edge in total offense (360-340), but they had 269 rushing yards, while the defense picked off three Miami (Ohio) passes.
South Carolina will have revenge in mind tonight after last season?s stunning 17-6 loss to Vandy as a 13-point home favorite ? a defeat that started the Gamecocks? season-ending five-game slide and snapped a seven-game winning streak over the Commodores. The visitor has dominated this rivalry from a pointspread perspective, going 5-0 ATS in the last five clashes, and South Carolina has won five straight at Vandy.
The Gamecocks are on ATS streaks of 9-3 against winning teams, 10-3-1 on the road, 5-1 in September and 4-0 on Thursday nights. However, they failed to cash in their last four SEC games in 2007. Meanwhile, the Commodores are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 in September, but 5-11 ATS in their last 16 at home and 3-6 ATS in the last nine as a home pup
After a shaky outing from starting QB Tommy Beecher last week (12 completions, 4 INTs), Spurrier has turned his offense over to sophomore Chris Smelley, who went 5-for-5 for 92 yards and two TD passes in relief of Beecher versus N.C. State. However, last year at Vandy, Smelley finished 14-for-24 for just 154 yards with no TDs and two INTS.
For Vanderbilt, the under is on runs of 10-3 overall, 7-1 at home, 8-1 in SEC play and 6-1 in September. Meanwhile, the under is 5-2 in South Carolina?s last seven overall and 25-9 in its last 34 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and UNDER



VEGAS EXPERTS

South Carolina at Vanderbilt
Thursday, September 4th, 8:30 PM ET

When these two SEC rivals met last year, they combined for a scant 23 points and we look for a similar low-scoring battle tonight, noting that the "other USC" has #2 Georgia on deck and won't look to do anything remarkably new on offense here. We also don't forsee another 21-point 4th Quarter explosion from the Gamecocks on the horizon. Spurrier's team is also 8-2 Under in the road favorit role.

Play on: Under


POINTWISE

COLLEGE

VANDERBILT 20 - South Carolina 19 - (8:30 - ESPN) -- Spurrier suddenly has a QB controversy, with Beecher tossing 4 INTs in his debut, but Smelley filled in nicely (5-of-5), & that "D" is solid (10 FDs). But 'Dores also impressive with their throttling of decent Miami-O squad (269-96 RY edge), with Nickson doing it all (166 RYs). Carolina 0-3 ATS away lately, by 1, ?, & 6? pts. It should go to wire.

ARMVIN SPORTS CFB
9/4/2008 VANDERBILT 10

Karl Garrett

South Carolina at VANDERBILT

Last week, South Carolina led NC State just 3-0 at the half before pulling away from the Wolfpack in a 34-0 win and cover. That game did stay UNDER the posted total, and I see a similar combined total tonight, as both defenses appear to be ahead of the curve at this point in the season.

Vanderbilt just beat Miami-Ohio 34-13 last Thursday night on the road, so you can see the Commodores defense is also up to snuff early on.

Last year, these teams played to a 17-6 final at Columbia, and a similar result this evening would not be a surprise.

Going to look for the defenses to pretty much blanket the offenses tonight, and for this Thursday night SEC battle to play UNDER the posted price.

G-Man expecting the LOW to be the way to go!

2* UNDER

John Fisher

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt +10

Both teams come off impressive victories last Thursday. South Carolina defense looked stout and Vandys offense looked sharp. South Carolina is favored by DD on road for a reason. They have tremendous speed and depth. This will certainly be needed as the the QB from Vandy almost compiled over 300 yds of total offense. Most of the yards via the ground. I actually watched both games last week. Vandy looked dangerous because they have a couple of playmakers that can beat you. DJ Moore as a receiver and return man looks like a Deon Saunders. South Carolina has to make a decision on who there QB will be after starting QB Beecher looked like a 'beached' whale throwing 4 INTS. Chris Smelley actually better driving the Gamecocks to 3 TD drives. Conclusion: Look for the Gamecocks to prevail but it will be closer that one thinks. USC might be looking ahead to Georgia, practiced with two QB's this week, and will playing first game away from home against some play makers that will be hard to practice for this early. Take the points and VANDY USC 23 Vandy 17

Nathan Armstrong CFB
9/4/2008 VANDERBILT 10


PlayByPlayInc. CFB
9/4/2008 SOUTH CAROLINA at
VANDERBILT Over 40.5


WILD BILL

Vanderbilt +10 (5 units)