North Carolina/Rutgers Free Picks Inside!

[TheFade]

Wunderdog

North Carolina at Rutgers
Pick: North Carolina +5.5

Rutgers has found that life after Ray Rice is going to be difficult. Last week they were held to less than 10 points in a game for just the second time in 29 games. Mike Teel moved the team between the 20s, but Rutgers had problems all game long getting into the end-zone. They were only able to generate just 3.1 yards per carry and that put a lot of pressure on Teel, who ultimately made two key mistakes, both ending in interceptions. The Rutgers defense also showed some shortcomings as they allowed 5.3 yards per carry and 422 yards in total. The Tar Heels had to come from behind to win against McNeese State and it took a tremendous effort by Brandon Tate to do it. Tate will be the most explosive man on the field for this one, as he netted 397 all-purpose yards last week. He returned a punt 82 yards for a TDand a kickoff 54 yards. He also carried the ball three times for over 100 yards, and caught a TD pass for 57 yards. Overall, this North Carolina team has 10 starters back from their offense last season. Rutgers really struggled on offense, and if Tate gets free for an easy one, it is going to be hard for the Scarlet Knights to get it back. Both of these teams should play better in their second game, but unless Rutgers finds some consistent yardage in the backfield, Carolina will be right there at the end. I like the points here.

WiseGuyHandicapping

3 UNITS Rutgers -4.5

Matt Foust

North Carolina @ Rutgers Over 46.0

Tonight’s edition of college football features a match-up between the ACC and the Big East as the North Carolina Tar Heels meet the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Rutgers Stadium in New Brunswick, NJ. The total is set at 46 and we are going to with the Over.

Last week Rutgers only scored seven points in a 24-7 home loss to Fresno State. A strong Bulldog offense amassed 206 yards on the ground and another 216 through the air and they took it to the Scarlet Knights in the second half. Rutgers played like it was their first game of the season, as senior quarterback Mike Teel threw two interceptions and the Ray Rice-less offense struggled to find a rhythm. Still, the Knights accumulated 369 yards of offense and Teel threw for 263 yards against an improved Fresno defense. I expect even more from them tonight as they now have their first game jitters out of the way.

The Tar Heels had a difficult time finding a groove in their first game too. They escaped with a narrow 35-27 home win over Football Championship Subdivision McNeese State. They allowed the Cowboys 391 yards of offense and 239 through the air. McNeese State also held the ball for 35:16 to Carolina’s 24:44. UNC produced 384 yards in their limited time with the ball and they rushed for 163 and a 5.6 yard per carry average. Wide receiver Brandon Tate salvaged the game for the Tar Heels with his special team’s heroics, scoring on an 82 yard punt return and accounting for 397 all-purpose yards.

Tonight’s game should feature a lot of passing, especially from the Scarlet Knights. They are transitioning to a more pass oriented attack with Rice gone, as the strength of their team are now Teel and a good group of receivers. While the Tar Heels defense is suppose to be improved, Rutgers should be able to move the ball through the air. And they’ve had ample time, as has UNC, to correct their first game mistakes since both teams are coming off bye weeks. The Tar Heels will be able to move the ball on the ground against Rutgers front too, and UNC should also have some nice field position to work with as their special teams are a notch above Rutgers. This game will certainly feature enough offense to get over the 46 point total.

Things to consider: The Over is 5-1 over the last five years when UNC is a road dog coming off a win. The Over is 5-1 the last five years with Rutgers coming off a bye week.

Pick: Take the Over 46


Sports Advisors

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

North Carolina (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Rutgers (0-1 SU and ATS)

Rutgers, looking to bounce back from a season-opening trouncing, play host to the Tar Heels in a non-conference tilt in Piscataway, N.J.

The Scarlet Knights got rolled 24-7 by Fresno State on Sept. 1 as a 3½-point home chalk, failing to score until more than halfway through the fourth quarter. The Knights allowed 422 total yards, including 206 on the ground – with the Bulldogs’ Ryan Mathews going off for 163 yards and three TDs on 26 carries (6.27 yards per rush). Rutgers finished with 369 yards, but veteran QB Mike Teel (20 of 39, 263 yards) had no TDs against two INTs.

North Carolina barely held off Division I-AA McNeese State 35-27 on Aug. 30 in a non-lined home contest. The Tar Heels were actually outgained 391-384, allowing 239 yards in the air and another 152 on the ground, though Carolina rushed for 163 yards. Multi-purpose star Brandon Tate had an eye-popping 392 total yards, from rushing (3 carries, 106 yards), receiving (4 catches, 93 yards, 1 TD) and kick/punt returns (4 for 193 yards, 1 TD).

These teams met two years ago, with Rutgers taking a 21-16 victory as a 3½-point road pup.

The Scarlet Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall and 2-4 ATS in their last six as a home favorite, but they sport positive ATS trends of 10-2-1 in non-conference play, 4-1 on Thursday, 6-2 after a SU loss, 8-3 against winning teams and 10-4 after a pointspread setback.

The Tar Heels are on pointspread skids of 0-5 against the Big East, 2-5 after a SU win, 2-5 against teams with a losing record and 2-5 in September.

The over is on streaks of 15-7-1 for North Carolina on the road, 4-1 after a North Carolina victory, 9-1 with Rutgers coming off a bye and 7-1-1 for the Knights against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

North Carolina/ Rutgers Over 46

The Over is 15-7-1 in Tar Heels last 23 road games, while the Over is 9-1 in Scarlet Knights last 10 games following a bye week and 7-1-1 in Scarlet Knights last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Last year Rutgers offense put up 33 ppg and with 7 starters back this year they figure to approach that number again, even with the loss of Ray Rice. The Offense, though, sputtered in the opening game with just 7 points, but a closer look shows that they did move the ball as they had 369 total yards of offense, including 263 yards through the air from QB Mike Teel. Turnovers did them in as they last 24-7. Expect a big bounce back game from Teel here as he will be taking on a Carolina defense thta allowed McNeese State to put up 391 yards and 27 points. Not really a good sign for a Carolina defense that returns 8 starters. On the other side of the ball, the Carolina offense returns 10 starters and they put up 35 points and 384 yards of offense in the opener. They should find enough holes in a rutgers defesne that allowed Fresno State to put up 24 points and 422 yards of offense. The last 5 years only 5 of Carolina's 28 road games have scored less than 46 points, with those 28 games averaging 57.2 ppg. In Rugtgers last 10 non-conference home games there has been an average of 47.8 rpg, including an average of 55.8 ppg last year. Both teams have had extra prep time for this one and I see that as a benefit to the offenses. Plenty of points in NJ tonight.


The Gold Medal Club

N.Carolina vs Rutgers
PLAY: RUTGERS -5.5

Teams playing in front of a national television audience can do wonders for the betting edge, especially when they flop. We will gladly lay the points here, as the odds makers have low balled the Scarlet Knights.Rutgers offense struggled mightily in there opener with Fresno State, failing to put up any points in the first half despite having control of the ball in Fresno territory 4 times.We take note N.Carolina is 0-3 ats vs the Big East Conference during the last 3 years, while Rutgers is 9-2 ats home in non conference action during the last 3 years.

[TheFade]

Dunkel Index

North Carolina at Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights try to bounce back from a Week 1 loss to Fresno State, but come into the game with just a 1-4 ATS record over the last three seasons as a favorite between 3 1/2 and 10 points. North Carolina is the underdog pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Rutgers favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+5 1/2).

Game 101-102: North Carolina at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 86.328; Rutgers 87.544
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 5 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+5 1/2); Over



BEN BURNS

NORTH CAROLINA

Game: North Carolina vs. Rutgers Game Time: 9/11/2008 7:45:00 PM Prediction: North Carolina Reason: I'm taking the points with NORTH CAROLINA. I respect the Scarlet Knights and consider them to be a solid team. However, I also really believe that the Tar Heels are going to be much improved this season and feel that they're currently flying somewhat under the radar. While Rutgers suffered some key losses, most notably Ray Rice, North Carolina brought back a whopping 18 starters. That was the most in the ACC. Butch Davis returns for his second year as head coach. Looking back to last year and we find that the Tar Heels were actually very competitive on the road under Davis. Early in the season, the Tar Heels covered at East Carolina and Virginia Tech and then they closed out the season by losing their final two road games (at Georgia Tech and NC. State) by just two and four points. As I've already stated, I feel that this team will be much improved from last year's. The Tar Heels are 5-3 ATS the last couple of seasons when listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. During the same stretch, the Scarlet Knights were just 1-4 ATS as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. That includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Note that Fresno State already came in here and upset the Scarlet Knights as a dog in that range. Its true that UNC wasn't overly impressive in defeating McNeese State in its opener. However, I feel that will work in our favor. For starters, it's kept the line generously high. Additionally, it will ensure that the Tar Heels weren't complacent during practice. Senior RT Garrett Reynolds summed up the Tar Heels attitude: "...when we got back in the locker room after the first game, a lot of guys felt it was not even like a win because we know we can play better. We were not happy about it..." Look for a much better effort from the Tar Heels here as they take this game down to the wire with a strong shot at the upset. *Main Event



Psychic Sports Picks


PSYCHIC

1 unit NC/Rut OVER 45.5


DA STICK

10 units Rutgers -5





SportsKingz

CFB

N.CAROLINA/RUTGERS OVER 46



BRANDON LANG

20 Dime Southern Cal (Advanced Release)

5 Dime Rutgers

FREE - UNC/Rutgers Under



The Gold Sheet

*RUTGERS 31 - North Carolina 30 Scarlet Knights itching to get in win column after dropping home opener vs. Fresno State. Sr. QB Teel will hit some big plays to top-notch WRs Britt & Underwood. But Rutgers misses recordsetting RB Rice in RED ZONE . Confident Carolina soph QB Yates has wherewithal to trade points for full 60 minutes, as Britt & Underwood have nothing on Tar Heels? dynamic WR duo of sr. Tate (397 total yards in opener!) and jr. Nicks. TV-ESPN (06-Rutg. +4' 21-16...SR: Rutg. 3-0)


Winning Points

*PREFERRED*

Rutgers* over North Carolina by 5
Is it possible that Greg Schiano has already taken the Rutgers program about as high as it can go, and now faces a struggle to maintain a winning level? Tar Heels are a work in progress, but do have an upside. RUTGERS 27-22.


Sports Reporter

*RUTGERS over NORTH CAROLINA by 3
The Rutgers defensive front four is smaller than you think, head coach Schiano replaced four assistants in the off-season, and the Tar Heels are better-coached and better-stocked now than when they lost 21-16 to Rutgers in the final season of the Bunting regime. Head coach Butch Davis hired Schiano at Miami-FL, so there is some intimacy here, which favors the road dog, who will add a few very quick kick returners who did not suit up in the opener vs.McNeese State. Rutgers had the worst FG to TD ratio in the Big East last season, and redzone woes continued in the Week 1 loss vs. Fresno, compounded by a new field goal kicker who they might want to kick in the butt. RUTGERS, 26-23.


Power Sweep

North Carolina at RUTGERS - In 2006 NC was at home (-4) and lost 21-16 but did come up empty on two drives deep into RU territory. They had a TD called back, were SOD and were int’d at the 21. NC has not won a road game outside the state of NC since 2002. An ACC team (Maryland) did come in here (+18’) and delivered another Big Dog Play outright upset in their 34-24 win LY. NC has 18 returning starters and while RU has 15 they must replace their key player RB Rice (2012 rush). The teams are fairly even on off with RU having the D (#32-72) and home edges. NC has a big ST’s edge (#62-116).


Pointwise

RUTGERS 23 - North Carolina 20 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Not too excited here, as the Knights obviously miss the talents of Rice, as they were outrushed by 100 yds in opening week upset vs Fresno. Now minus 85 pts ATS in 8 of their last 9 regular season games. The 'Heels return 19 starters, but were hardly impressive in their narrow escape vs McNeese, with a stat deficit. Dog is 12-4ATS in NC contests.



Wise Guy Handicapping

3 UNITS Rutgers -4.5