I'm going the other way -- Machida and Hughes. Evans hasn't faced an advanced defender like Machida and may not be able to get close and wrestle him. Tito Ortiz had similar strengths and weaknesses and Machida picked him apart.
Hughes is just a bigger man than Serra and St-Pierre proved in the rematch that Serra can be ragdolled...
I think the judges made the right call. Hughes controlled the pace more and Serra got too distracted trying to "show off" that Hughes wasn't hurting him. He didn't do enough -- even when he hurt Hughes in round 1, it was from an accidental headbutt...