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By Micah Roberts
You wanna Party?
You wanna ROCK?
Okay, here we go!
This Sunday, get out your favorite Metallica CD or Judas Priest cassette and crank up the volume through your Marshall stacks. Once you get that going you turn on the television and tune into ABC-TV at 11:00 a.m. (PST) for the start of the NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Talladega. The double bass drums and speed rifts of the dueling guitarists combined with the racing on the biggest, baddest track on the planet, make the perfect environment for a head bangers ball.
This race is so much fun to watch because of the pure speed and the lure of danger lurking around every turn. Wild and crazy things happen at just about any track when you have sequences where the drivers get antsy enough to make it four wide. What separates Talladega from all others is that four wide is the norm. Going at speeds over 200 mph side by side and bumper to bumper for 188 laps around the high banked beast of a 2.66 mile track is about as thrilling as thrilling can get.
Because the drivers are so close to each other for the entire race, including the last lap, one would think that there would be move variety in the list of winners and manufacturers that have recent Talladega wins. At least that was the case coming into this season.
From 1999 through 2007, a Chevy had won every race but one. That’s two races a season, and no one could touch them except for a freak of nature and good restrictor plate racing skills of Dale Jarrett in a Ford back in 2005. Last season Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson finished 1-2 in both races continuing not only Chevy’s domination, but Hendrick Motorsports which gave them four straight ‘Dega wins and five of six.
Fast forward to this season and compare the drivers and teams who have done well and your first instinct would be that the names and teams were somehow inverted. No Chevy has won a plate race this season, which includes the spring Talladega race and both Daytona races. A Toyota has won twice and a Dodge has won once. Johnson and Gordon haven’t even had top 10 finishes in any of the plate races this season.
So who’s it going to be this week? Can we count on a Chevy to bounce back? Will Toyota continue to dominate? And, can a Dodge somehow make it back to victory lane amid all their struggles this season? The answer to all of the above is Yes!
The key figure in the Chevy mix with the best possibility of winning is Dale Earnhardt Jr. For some reason his teammates and the Childress Chevy’s have not been as good as in the past, and it’s not just the Car of Tomorrow because they ran it last year in the fall at Talladega. Junior is one of only two drivers to finish in the top 10 of every plate race this season. Going into the season opener at Daytona, Junior won all the non-points events and then took a back seat to Toyota when the real races started. No current driver has enjoyed more success at Talladega, no driver will have more fans rooting for him, and no driver has the actual race sponsor on his car’s hood other than Junior. He’s 190 points behind the point leader and this is where he must make up some ground.
Toyota is the interesting entry this weekend because of the psychosis of Kyle Busch. He won the spring Talladega race and won the Firecracker at Daytona pulling down both Toyota plate race victories this season. He’ll likely have the best car out there again on Sunday, but his mind is miles away from the track. His immaturity has showed more than ever by his actions in the chase. His sulking and “It’s over” attitude conveyed to reporters after race 2 of the chase leading up to last weeks disappointment has made me feel sorry for him since I’m a Las Vegan, but it has also made me annoyed that he wouldn’t grasp the situation and make the best of it, and even attempt to make history.
Tony Stewart has finished 2nd at Talladega six times in his career without ever winning there, which ties a NASCAR record. He might be the hungriest driver out there for a win because he knows time is running out in his last season with Joe Gibbs racing. Who knows when the next time he’ll win again with the sleds that he now co-owns?
The last answer is a big “Yes” to Dodge this week. Every Dodge team has been competitive in all three plate races this season. That is real achievement because they have all collectively looked like garbage, except for Kasey Kahne’s obvious deal with the devil in late May and June. We’re going to go with them this week, and of course, go for another Vegas guy to win.
Kurt Busch has been searching for a plate wins for some time now. He opted to go the team route in the Daytona 500 rather than the “Me” route and push Ryan Newman to the win. He has the best average finish at Talladega of all the current NASCAR drivers and has two top 5 finishes in three of the plate races this season. Go Vegas, the Blue Deuce is Loose, and if Busch does win, Miller Lite’s are free at PT’s Pub!
We have discussed some of the favorites, but how about a few long shots that could be live opportunities. It doesn’t happen very often, but every once in a while someone sneaks the nose of their car in for a chance at taking high paying checkers. The latest and best example was when Brian Vickers paid out at over 30/1 in this race two years ago. The irony with that is Casey Mears, like Vickers then and driving with Hendrick, is a lame duck driver counting his final days. Vickers knocked Junior and his own teammate Jimmie Johnson out of the way to get the win. I have been waiting patiently ever since for that car’s performance to reappear and pay similarly, but it hasn’t happened and that is likely why Mark martin will be driving the car next season.
Drivers to keep an eye on in matchups who have fared very well in plate races are Robby Gordon and David Ragan. Gordon has finished in the top 11 of every plate race this season while Ragan has two top 5 finishes in the three plate races. Only Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr can claim to have better all around performances in the plate races this season than Gordon. As for Ragan, only the Busch brothers have two top 5 finishes in plate races this season. Not bad company for the two.
TOP 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #2 Kurt Busch (14/1)
2) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (5/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (9/2)
4) #20 Tony Stewart (6/1)
5) #11 Denny Hamlin (15/1)
Others to Watch at ‘Dega…way off radar
We have discussed some of the favorites, but how about a few long shots that could be live opportunities. It doesn’t happen very often, but every once in a while someone sneaks the nose of their car in for a chance at taking high paying checkers. The latest and best example was when Brian Vickers paid out at over 30/1 in this race two years ago. The irony with that is Casey Mears, like Vickers then and driving with Hendrick, is a lame duck driver counting his final days. Vickers knocked Junior and his own teammate Jimmie Johnson out of the way to get the win. I have been waiting patiently ever since for that car’s performance to reappear and pay similarly, but it hasn’t happened and that is likely why Mark martin will be driving the car next season.
Drivers to keep an eye on in matchups who have fared very well in plate races are Robby Gordon and David Ragan. Gordon has finished in the top 11 of every plate race this season while Ragan has two top 5 finishes in the three plate races. Only Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr can claim to have better all around performances in the plate races this season than Gordon. As for Ragan, only the Busch brothers have two top 5 finishes in plate races this season. Not bad company for the two.
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Originally Posted by whoru 
