NBA Contest Championship Round: diondublin/ringneck

[ringneck82]

Another relatively easy pick last night with Denver crushing New Orleans. I was only off my 20 point prediction by 1, so that's pretty good.

Tonight, I was seriously thinking about taking the Boston/Chicago Under since all of the Over wins in this series have basically been just because of the games being pushed into overtime, but they moved the line on me to around 195, which is probably still a safe bet, but I just don't like it quite as much now. I'm predicting this game won't go into overtime. (I wish we could bet on that every game.)


Instead, I'm going to make my final POD for April:

Houston -5


Houston is hungry for a series win, and they will get it tonight on their home court. This should be around a 8-10 point victory for Yao and Rockets.


April POD Championship Record: 6-0
April POD Final 4 Record: 5-2
April POD 2nd Round Record: 6-1
April POD 1st Round Record: 4-3
April POD Overall Record: 21-6

[SteveJanus]

Congrats, Ringneck - you have been on FIRE throughout this contest!!!

[drklrdbill]

I almost beat him too! :D

[diondublin]

[QUOTE=ringneck82;7915]Another relatively easy pick last night with Denver crushing New Orleans. I was only off my 20 point prediction by 1, so that's pretty good.

Tonight, I was seriously thinking about taking the Boston/Chicago Under since all of the Over wins in this series have basically been just because of the games being pushed into overtime, but they moved the line on me to around 195, which is probably still a safe bet, but I just don't like it quite as much now. I'm predicting this game won't go into overtime. (I wish we could bet on that every game.)


Instead, I'm going to make my final POD for April:

Houston -5


Houston is hungry for a series win, and they will get it tonight on their home court. This should be around a 8-10 point victory for Yao and Rockets.

I like this sort of number for the same sort of reason as I like it in NCAAB - it represents a number that might well be crossed with late machinations so you get a few more wins laying about 5.5 than simple 'power' analysis might suggest.

The interesting thing tonight is that there is another game where the home side gives up 5.5 and that is the 76'ers hosting the Magic.

However, a cursory look at the relative abilities of these teams tells a greatly different story. The Rockets, with 53 wins, seem to be about as good as the Trailblazers, with 54 wins.

However, the 76'ers, with 41 wins, seem to be much inferior to the Magic, who have 59 wins.

Yet in both these matchups, the home side is, as stated, a 5.5 point favourite!

The reason for this apparent contradiction lies, it seems to me, in the notion that teams with their backs to the wall in series (i.e. one game from being eliminated) are expected to play harder (i.e. better) than teams who do not need to win this game to stay in the playoffs.

Thusly, the 76'ers, who must win, are priced at a relative premium to their home counterparts, the Rockets.

Now I notice, in U.S. sports, due to 'specific-situation factors' (that do NOT generally occur in English sports betting situations so much, even if the odds imply that they might - see Pullein et al) that this sort of apparent contradiction in the lines is quite common (i.e. the line put up seems strange versus ordinary analysis).

It is potentially crucial to understand, though, that when there is an identifiable reason for a strange line (i.e. this is not a run-of-the-mill game, for one reason or another) then it is likely that the line will UNDERESTIMATE the degree of the deviation from the 'expected' line. This is probably because the bookie expects lopsided action to spring from conventional analysis so he 'splits the difference' between the 'conventional-square' line and the genuine appropriate line.

This means that the typical number actually bettable is not deviated far enough and therefore a contrarian approach is often recommended, expecting the situation to go even further than seems priced-in.

The suggestion, therefore, as these situations are not run-of-the-mill, is that the 'obvious' conclusion that Houston are a better bet to give 5.5 tonight than Philadelphia is wrong, and that it is actually more likely that the 76'ers will cover than the Rockets will...

[ringneck82]

I'm not sure I quite follow your analysis, Adrian. I think I do, but not sure. I do know that Philadelphia got their a$$es handed to them and Houston took care of business at home.

Throwing win totals out the window.....to me, the better basketball teams won tonight, and covered tonight. If I had to pick on the Orl/Phily game I proly would have picked Orlando, 'cause their the better team. But I didn't know the status of Dwight Howard and his flying elbows, so I just thought I would stay away.


Back to my picks.

Who would have thought that the Celts & Bulls would go to overtime again!! I figured 3 time in one series would be enough, but they figured if they're setting records, they might was well set it high. So 4 OTs it was.

Seems like it wouldn't have matter since they were tied at 101 at the end of regulation anyway. Anyone like the OVER for game 7?

Houston came through like I thought they would, and Yao finally got his playoff series win that he's been missing for the last X years. This win rounds out a pretty good month for me.


April POD Championship Record: 7-0
April POD Final 4 Record: 5-2
April POD 2nd Round Record: 6-1
April POD 1st Round Record: 4-3
April POD Overall Record: 22-6


I hope we have another one of these contests in the near future. Maybe I can get hot in MLB action.

[diondublin]

[QUOTE=ringneck82;7956]I'm not sure I quite follow your analysis, Adrian. I think I do, but not sure. I do know that Philadelphia got their a$$es handed to them and Houston took care of business at home.

I feel a little embarrassed, but only a little. The reason why is because this sort of thinking is a very valuable tool in U.S. sports, even if it does not win every time.

A similar example, quoted in the Caesars Palace book, is to bet a non-ranked NCAAB team when they are FAVOURITES over a ranked team. This is apparently a very profitable contrarian angle - it would obviously seem as though a ranked dog vs unranked would be worth betting but the book claims it is in fact the other way plus more.

The crux of the matter is if the bookies number seems to be off because they are pricing to an angle that they know is powerful then they are likely to still UNDERPRICE this angle because they expect lopsided action from the conventionalists.

It's a tricky line to draw and as always it's a value thing. Sometimes these notions end up looking silly but nonetheless they are relevant at the end of the day.

Regarding last night, it is worth noting that Jack Jones made Philadelphia his 20* NBA No-Brainer last night, so there is obviously some support for the analysis.

Maybe he would be kind enough to contribute his thoughts as to why he agreed with me that the 76'ers were a better bet than the Rockets?

In any case, sincere congratulations on your performance in this competition...7-0 is tough to beat