Philadelphia & Houston games play

[The Wiz]

The third-seeded Magic, without a suspended Dwight Howard and injured Courtney Lee tonight in Philadelphia for Game 6, are on pointspread slides of 0-5 on the highway, 1-10 against the Atlantic Division, 2-7 against the East and 3-8 overall.

The sixth-seeded 76ers are on ATS upticks of 13-4-1 against the Atlantic Division (including 6-1 in the last seven), 5-2 at home and 6-2 coming off a double-digit loss.

Lastly, not only have the Magic failed to cover in four of the five games in this series, but they’re still just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games, including 0-5 ATS (1-4 SU) on the road. Meanwhile, the Sixers have cashed in five of their last seven home games (2-0 ATS at home in this series) and they’re an impressive 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams from the Southeast Division.

PORTLAND at HOUSTON
Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) off a home win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
87-44 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% | 38.6 units )
13-10 this year. ( 56.5% | 2.0 units )


PORTLAND at HOUSTON
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 165 points or less
192-122 since 1997. ( 61.1% | 67.1 units )
7-5 this year. ( 58.3% | 2.8 units )


The Blazers have failed to cover in 10 of their last 16 games when installed as a road underdog and are just 6-13 ATS their last 19 when installed as a road pup of between 5 and 10 1/2 points.

The Rockets, on the other hand, have covered in 5 of their last 7 home games and are 5-2 ATS their last games when installed as a home favorite. Also, for the season Houston has outscored its opponents, on average, 99.3-90.8 when playing at the Toyota Center.

Keep in mind, too, Houston has covered in 19 of its last 26 games coming off a ATS loss.


The home team is on a 7-1 SU roll in the Rockets-Blazers series.

recommend:Philly-2 with Houston-1 (tease)

[CaptainJack]

That doesn't look like a bad tease to me! Good luck tonight

[diondublin]

That doesn't look like a bad tease to me! Good luck tonight

Regardless of whether this 'tease' is an objectively good bet, I am far from convinced having regard to the veracity of this type of bet versus other types of bet involving these teams.

Numbers like 5.5 are great versus numbers like 1 or 2 in any case because of late-game factors, so I would be far more likely to favour a bet that - relevantly for value - changed a number from 1 or 2 to 5.5 or so.

Allied to this is the notion that 4 points or so seems a very small tease, dependent of course on the new combined price for the double. If, as I assume, the teaser is priced at about even money then I would much prefer another type of bet.

It is worth noting that, at Bet365 for instance, the straight-up double pays about 1.96-for-1. This may well have been better earlier in the day. Whilst a shade less than even money, it does not push on Houston by 1 or Philadelphia by 2 or lose on Philadelphia by 1.

This strengthens therefore the proposition that the 'teaser' is not great value at even money.

Does it indeed pay this?

[drklrdbill]

Regardless of whether this 'tease' is an objectively good bet, I am far from convinced having regard to the veracity of this type of bet versus other types of bet involving these teams.

Numbers like 5.5 are great versus numbers like 1 or 2 in any case because of late-game factors, so I would be far more likely to favour a bet that - relevantly for value - changed a number from 1 or 2 to 5.5 or so.

Allied to this is the notion that 4 points or so seems a very small tease, dependent of course on the new combined price for the double. If, as I assume, the teaser is priced at about even money then I would much prefer another type of bet.

It is worth noting that, at Bet365 for instance, the straight-up double pays about 1.96-for-1. This may well have been better earlier in the day. Whilst a shade less than even money, it does not push on Houston by 1 or Philadelphia by 2 or lose on Philadelphia by 1.

This strengthens therefore the proposition that the 'teaser' is not great value at even money.

Does it indeed pay this?

Yeah, I'm a much bigger fan of teases in NFL. I'd rather lay both faves as separate bets or even a parlay, then tease both at even money.

[The Wiz]

Regardless of whether this 'tease' is an objectively good bet, I am far from convinced having regard to the veracity of this type of bet versus other types of bet involving these teams.

Numbers like 5.5 are great versus numbers like 1 or 2 in any case because of late-game factors, so I would be far more likely to favour a bet that - relevantly for value - changed a number from 1 or 2 to 5.5 or so.

Allied to this is the notion that 4 points or so seems a very small tease, dependent of course on the new combined price for the double. If, as I assume, the teaser is priced at about even money then I would much prefer another type of bet.

It is worth noting that, at Bet365 for instance, the straight-up double pays about 1.96-for-1. This may well have been better earlier in the day. Whilst a shade less than even money, it does not push on Houston by 1 or Philadelphia by 2 or lose on Philadelphia by 1.

This strengthens therefore the proposition that the 'teaser' is not great value at even money.

Does it indeed pay this?

Ya could be right on this one!!

[The Wiz]

Yeah, I'm a much bigger fan of teases in NFL. I'd rather lay both faves as separate bets or even a parlay, then tease both at even money.

Agree,i love teasers in Foots,& 4 points in baskets is similar to a few seconds down the court.So 4 points
ain't shit!!

[diondublin]

Yeah, I'm a much bigger fan of teases in NFL. I'd rather lay both faves as separate bets or even a parlay, then tease both at even money.

I definitely agree with NFL teasers being more attractive bets than NBA - we don't really do teasers much over here; it is not an option as such with most big British Isles bookmakers.

IIRC, Ladbrokes will let you improve the spread by three points on a single game basis if taking only 1/2 (-200, which seems a little short to me), and they will let you improve it six points either way and take 5/13 (-260, much more attractive to me notionally).

I guess Ladbrokes might well let you do a 'double', 'treble', 'fourfold' or upwards, improving your number by six, where they have the prices (not necessarily all games).

If they did, the payoffs would be as follows:

Double: 0.92/1
Treble: 1.65/1
4fold: 2.68/1

If the two-team six-point teaser is even money, then, Ladbrokes would offer slightly worse value but this is somewhat compensated for by the notion that if you hit one and push one you get paid 18-for-13 rather than just money back. However, of course, if either loses you get nothing, whereas I believe some teaser schedules state that if any game pushes the whole bet pushes.

This must lead to some fascinating situations where an already-losing bet can be 'resurrected' if the last leg lands right on the number...similar to a one-point middle I guess (tear rolls down cheek as he remembers betting both LSU -13.5 and Ohio State +14.5 in-running during the 2008 BCS Championship Game).


Anyway, I digress, the point about teasers is the following. As I understand it the 6-points are always bought at the same price in NFL (i.e. always 5/13 with Ladbrokes). This is true despite the wildly differing profiles of variance expectation in result. If you think that six points are worth the same in a dome shoot-out as in say Pittsburgh at Cleveland in the wind and rain you are mad.

The true value of six points will probably be proportional to the totals expectation raised to an exponent of between one and two - perhaps sqrt2 (1.41) is a good place to start.

Another way to value it is to determine the chance of both sides winning; i.e. the result finishing in the (effective) twelve-point spread around the result. Obviously one side must win but how likely is it that both sides will (i.e. any selection on the game triumphs)?

Thusly for God's sake tend to the low-totals expectations in your teaser. It may well be that if you pick some games that go low, they could all be close to the number and every teaser possible on those games would win!

Another notion is that if one bets BOTH sides at 5/13, then this is effectively a bet at 5/4 that the game finishes within five points of the number either way (and there is a small profit still if it lands exactly six away).

Good luck...but please think hard about what type of game it is before you bet teasers - apparently the Brain Trust had a profitable game selection method here so things might be more difficult now...

[CaptainJack]

I personally stay away from teasers in basketball, but the NFL they are a gold mine.

Two things you want to look at in the NFL:

Taking any favorite from 7-8.5 down to 1-2.5

Taking any home dog from 1-2.5 up to 7-8.5

If you do that BLINDLY, without even handicapping the games you will win money in the long run. You'll also be either banned from teaser bets or severely limited with the amount you wager if you use an online book =)

[CaptainJack]

Here's an article I found by Jimmy Boyd on teasers, but it mainly applies to football:

Every football season new gamblers and potential clients flood my email box with questions on parlays, teasers,half times, prop bets, and anything and everything you would every want to know about successful sports wagering. I decided this year I was going to come up with a little teaser rule sheet to help out the general public. Now, right off the bat I need to let everyone know that I personally do not play too many teasers and do not recommend my clients play them, but they are fun for the recreational bettor and they are who this article is for. I want to make sure that the average bettor hasa good chance of winning their teaser bets over the long run,even if I advise to just play our selections in single side betsand not in teasers, pleasers, or parlays.

Rule 1 - Look for opponents of favorites that like to play conservatively with a lead, especially on the road. These kind of teams like to run the ball witha lead in order to eat away at the clock. They aren't concerned with beating up badly on opponents or running up scores, they simply want to ensure victory by ending the game as swiftly as possible. This is a great edge to look for when trying to find a team with a +9 or +16 spread that you will tease to +15 or +22. Some teams like to play it more aggressive at home, and more conservative when in the enemy's confines, so road favorites of the above margins are a good group to look at going against.

Rule 2 - Look for home favorites that get thejob done no matter what. Some teams win ugly, doing whatever they can to just secure a win. The Bears a couple of years ago when they went on their improbably run are a good example. This team seemed to ''get lucky'' due to some lucky breaks. The teams that fall into this tend to win but not cover are the-8 to -6 favorites that you can tease to under a field goal.

Rule 3 - Try to uncover teams that are coming close to covering the spread, but haven't gotten the job done. Linesmakers don't adjust the line due to teaser action because they can''t. Very few people have the diligence to look deep into the ATS records to see how closely teams are falling to the number. If the linesmakers have teams that they know pretty well and are hitting close to their line, these teams might have a high teaser winning rate.

Rule 4 - Tease rivalry games, divisional matchups,and playoff games. Teams that are in big rivalries or that are in conference know each other very well and more importantly,the lines makers know how these teams fare against one another. The lines for these games are pretty precise, more accurate than teams who rarely play one another. At the end of each season the lines makers know the teams pretty well and also there is enough game tape that each coach can scout the opponents pretty well.

Rule 5 - Tease better defenses, don''t tease against good offenses. The reason for this is simple, a good defensive team with a poor offense is much more likely to keep the game close than a terrible defensive team who is playing a high scoring offense. If the high scoring offense gets things going inthe right direction, not even the extra points will help!

Rule 6 - Do not tease rookie QB''s, freshman QB''s, or any other QB who you know to have very little experience. Turnovers are the death of many teaser bets because they can''t be handicapped into the game. More experienced QBs know to throw the ball away or take a sack when they need to and to not force the action. Trying to force things to happen leads to fumbles, interceptions, and good scoring opportunities for the opposition.

Rule 7 - Tease predictable games. When teams have had something significant happen to them, clinching or being eliminated from the playoffs, key personal injured or suspended,or any other extraordinary circumstance needs to eliminate a game from your teaser consideration. You want the final score to come fairly close to the real line, this will ensure a teaser victory.

We have laid out 7 solid rules for the average bettor who plays teaser bets this football season. Using these steadfast guidelines should ensure that the recreational bettor who uses the weekly teaser as his fun bet has all of the knowledge that goes into the rare occasion when a professional gambler plays his teasers. Remember that when handicapping a straight side you need to win 52% of your bets, but when you get the extra 6 points you need to win 72% of your plays in orde rto show a profit. Until next time, good luck on all bets.

[diondublin]

I personally stay away from teasers in basketball, but the NFL they are a gold mine.

Two things you want to look at in the NFL:

Taking any favorite from 7-8.5 down to 1-2.5

Taking any home dog from 1-2.5 up to 7-8.5

If you do that BLINDLY, without even handicapping the games you will win money in the long run. You'll also be either banned from teaser bets or severely limited with the amount you wager if you use an online book =)

This is extremely interesting. One potential angle for those with access to Ladbrokes, as I was mentioning above, is the ability to bet SINGLE games with a six-point adjusted spread at 5/13. This of course eliminates the need to find two or more games to 'tease'.

One notes that plenty of books allow you to adjust the point spread with a change of odds but I wonder if they discriminate on type of game as to the price you must now play at - Ladbrokes did not seem to last year.

I wonder if this is a good enough price for the blind profits at the spread points you mention? One would need to hit over 72% just to break even - what sort of percentage does your system win at?

Further, does it help to add a 'low total points number' filter to it?

It is also possible that playing single bets, at Ladbrokes or elsewhere, might help to avoid the banning/restricting problems you mention!