NBA Ratings

[diondublin]

I didn't think I liked the NBA, but a fairly trivial ratings system is proving a reasonable filter in these playoffs so I thought I would briefly share here.

This system calls tonight's two games the following way:

Cavs by 5.5 (Cavs -10 at Bet365)
Mavs by 2.5 (Mavs -2 at Bet365)

The latter game looks difficult, but in the former there is really only one way to go, IF you are going to have a bet.

Miss the game by all means but, I warn you, do NOT bet the Cavs -10!

Obviously, this bet might win but one can be quite sure it is not value at odds-on in this situation, particularly as there is little or no mitigation apparent in the motivation, the Hawks being at home, on the verge of elimination, desperate for revenge and prideful to avoid the series shut-out.

The Cavs will be quite happy to take the series 4-1 so I recommend betting the Hawks, either on the spread or, for those of us who love a big-priced home dog outright, at prices of up to 107/20 (Coral).

Avoid temptation, then, to lay the points or odds...which side would YOU back to be more motivated in relevant aspects of the game? A wise man once claimed that NBA is all about motivation. While he is only half-right, both sets of factors say 10 is too much to lay tonight!

DON'T BACK CLEVELAND HERE

[SteveJanus]

I think you are probably right, and I think the best play here is a no-play. Cleveland may very well want to sweep another series - and certainly could. The problem with betting (or not betting) based on "motivation" in the NBA is that it is based on assumptions on players' or teams' behaviors that we really know nothing about (no matter how much we may think we do). Motivation is a fluid term, and therefore it is very hard to pin-point its true impact on the outcomes of games. If anything we probably all put too much emphasis on it (IMHO). Now, there might some hard facts to back this - maybe home teams facing a series sweep in the playoffs have won more than they've lost over the past 5 years, and that's another story, I would just like to know more about how successful betting on teams in this "motivational situation" (as well as others) have been.

Thanks for the info and good luck if you decide to take the Hawks!

[CaptainJack]

I was leaning towards taking the Hawks and the Mavs tonight, but my power rankings only showed a few points of value, not worth a play. Thanks for the post though!

[diondublin]

I think you are probably right, and I think the best play here is a no-play. Cleveland may very well want to sweep another series - and certainly could. The problem with betting (or not betting) based on "motivation" in the NBA is that it is based on assumptions on players' or teams' behaviors that we really know nothing about (no matter how much we may think we do). Motivation is a fluid term, and therefore it is very hard to pin-point its true impact on the outcomes of games. If anything we probably all put too much emphasis on it (IMHO). Now, there might some hard facts to back this - maybe home teams facing a series sweep in the playoffs have won more than they've lost over the past 5 years, and that's another story, I would just like to know more about how successful betting on teams in this "motivational situation" (as well as others) have been.

Thanks for the info and good luck if you decide to take the Hawks!

I did take the Hawks, but only with a small outright win bet for value. I definitely take your point about the best play being a no-play.

However, those that took the Cavs-10 were real lucky to get away with a push - it was only Cavs by 5 going into the last minute, so I guess it was to some extent that statistical tendency I talk about for favourites to pull away during the last minute. This sort of thing is why I like the dogs straight-up, by the way.

Had the final 60 seconds gone the other way (0-5), there could have been overtime, and the Cavs never led by 11 or more, I don't think, so I think my claim that 10 was too much was correct.