• Denver Nuggets -5
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    10/28/09

    Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets - NBA @10:30 PM ET


    The Nuggets have learned how to win. Not only can they win, they enjoy taking their opposition to the mat and then kicking them. After five consecutive first-round playoff exits, Denver reached the Western Conference finals for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century.
    Four of the five starters from last season return, and while J.R. Smith won't play in tonight's game, the Nuggets have a handful of players to work the off-guard spot in his place. Arron Affalo will see most of the minutes with Anthony Carter playing at the same time as Chauncey Billups. Rookie Ty Lawson will even get some court time due to Smith's suspension.
    The Jazz are solid on the front line with Carlos Boozer, Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur, but due to injuries Utah will struggle to match-up when any of the Big Three are on the bench. Injuries to C.J. Miles and Matt Harpring will force Utah to go small at times and without sparkplug and sharp shooter Kyle Korver and a less than full strength Ronnie Brewer the second half will belong to Denver. Miles is sidelined after rupturing a ligament in his left thumb earlier this month, while Harpring and Korver will both miss the beginning of the season after undergoing knee surgery.
    Early injuries figure to tax the starters, especially in altitude. The lack of depth due to injuries a year ago resulted in a 15-26 away record for the Jazz. We set this game at 9 points, primarily due to Utah's lack of depth and the history between these two teams.
    The Jazz are 3-17 ATS when they allow 105 points or more in altitude with at least two starters who play 14 minutes or more out to injury, this over the last two seasons. In this situation Utah is giving up nearly 120 points per contest.
    Utah starts the season in hostile territory. Denver went exactly 33-8 in 2008-09 on their home floor . The two teams split their four meetings last season, each winning both of its home games. History repeats itself with a big opening night win by the Nuggets.
    Denver is 14-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two NBA campaigns.


    Take Denver Nuggets -5





    Cleveland Cavaliers / Toronto Raptors Over 192.5
    10/28/09
    Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors 7:00 PM ET 10/28/2009 NBA
    Don't judge Cleveland's offensive capabilities based on the opening night loss to Boston, few teams are capable of creating scheme's that shut down an offense like the Celts can. And if there is a cure for the basket-flu, it's a 48 minute session with the Toronto Raptors.
    Shaq didn't record one dunk in the Cavs loss to the Celtics Tuesday night, that won't happen two straight games, especially when facing the porous interior defense of Toronto. The Raptors weren't a good defensive team a year ago and they won't be any better this year, either, at least not with their starters on the floor. A Bosh-Turkoglu-Bargnani front court won't intimidate Shaq and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. The lack of size and physicality of the Raptors will force them to play at an even faster pace than they did a year ago.
    While Toronto fans might prefer their soft hoop-troupe play more like the Maple Leafs (of old that is) they will receive plenty of opportunity to stand and cheer the offense. The Raptors roster is full of shooters as the first five can all fill it up when asked. Jose Calderon is one of the best marksmen in the game at the point and Andrea Bargnani is arguably the best-shooting center in the league. Chris Bosh can hurt the opposition from the outside and take it to the rim when defenders face him up. The addition of Hedo Turkoglu at the No. 3, gives the Raps the opportunity to put triple digits on the scoreboard against even the best defensive units.
    The Cavs will be anxious to put their opening night loss behind them, and will attack the rim with nearly every possession. Cleveland went to the line 32 times against Boston last night, and will either exceed that number tonight versus Toronto, or shoot over 50 percent from the floor. The choice on which the Raps decide on is irrelevant. The Cavs will score 100-plus points tonight. They wills start much like they did against the Celtics scoring 28 first quarter points, but won't let up in tonight’s affair assuring themselves a victory.
    Cleveland is 14-3 to the OVER in road games when they opened as five point favorites or more with the total set at 192 or greater. Toronto was 26-4 to the OVER in games where the opposition scored 98 points or more with an opening total of 192 or greater, this over the last two NBA campaigns. The average final score in the latter time-tested trend was 220 combined points.


    Take the Over 192.5