Adrian's Monday Thoughts [March 23rd 2009]

[diondublin]

Checking out the minor championship games for Monday I find that one catches my eye and that is Richmond (-4) to beat Charleston. This price is available with several oddchecker.com bookmakers.

Richmond are a substantially better team according to the Pythag ratings and I note they have stronger conference experience than their opponents on Monday night. This plus home court advantage makes them an 8-point favourite in my eyes so I am surprised to see them as short as four points with the books.

Further, even if Richmond do not really 'deserve' an ATS win on the night, late fouls might just push the margin across the number - another point in our favour.


The first of two less strong mentions is Stanford (+1 or 20/21 S/U) to beat Wichita State. Surely a much better team, Stanford's fate will be in their own hands and will depend on how they handle situational factors such as venue and comparitive motivation. If you think they will play their usual stand-up game, this could be a nice little bet.

Perhaps the wise course is to use one of the tracker sites to see where the smart money is. Essentially if the line does not seem to be moving with the public betting percentages it may be because there is smart money about going the other way.


The second of these two less strong mentions is James Madison (+3.5 or 27/20 S/U) to beat Liberty. The Dukes are entitled on my ratings to a perceived superiority about equal to the value of home-court advantage so I would make this an even game that could go either way. Taking either the points or the odds (and I would recommend the odds) should then be a positive expected value play.


Good luck

Adrian Armstrong

[diondublin]

I wrote: "...Surely a much better team, Stanford's fate will be in their own hands and will depend on how they handle situational factors such as venue and comparitive motivation..."

As further context on the Stanford motivational situation, I refer the reader to A Stanford education in CBI's payoff. This article discusses Stanford's first-round match.

At tip-off about 500 people were in the stands at Maples Pavilion, which seats 7,329, and by the end of the first half, the crowd had grown to approximately 900. Official attendance for the game was listed as 1,243.
"Since there were not many people in the stands, we figured we'd take this game like it was open gym, like playing at the Arrillaga Rec Center," freshman Jeremy Green said after scoring 19 points. "It seemed like everybody was having fun."

[BIGMICK]

Idaho cover easy against pacific. In fact i would play a money line bet if u can get it .

[CaptainJack]

Interesting thoughts as always Adrian. I was leaning towards taking Liberty but decided against it, which I'm glad when seeing you were on the other side.