The Little Kiddie Tournaments Monday

[drklrdbill]

So I'm looking at these games tonight and can't make up my mind.

I'm leaning so far (please correct me if you think I'm wrong):

Creighton -2 vs. Kentucky

Yes, Kentucky has Meeks, but this is a team that was 4-6 on the road this year. I think Creighton has something to prove, and will squeak out a win in this, and hopefully covering.

Saint Mary's -4 vs. Davidson

I'm tired of hearing about Steph, and I think that nickname is gayer than Sean Penn winning an Oscar for portraying Harvey Milk. I think Saint Mary's rolls at home, with the other lamest nickname in college basketball, Patty Mills, dominating. St. Mary's is still pissed they didn't get in the tournament and will come out strong tonight at home. Note that St. Mary's only home loss this season was to a Sweet 16 Gonzaga team by 2 points.

Even weaker leans:

Stanford Pick 'Em @ Wichita State

Oregon State -1 vs. Vermont

Please. Discuss.

[CaptainJack]

Good luck today Bill.

I was leaning towards Liberty and Oakland but couldn't pull the trigger.

[CRhoades]

I agree with you on Creighton, disagree on St. Mary's. I have this weird feeling Steph Curry will absolutely go off tonight. Wouldn't surprise me to see him get 45.

[diondublin]

[quote=drklrdbill;6534]So I'm looking at these games tonight and can't make up my mind.

I'm leaning so far (please correct me if you think I'm wrong):

Creighton -2 vs. Kentucky

Yes, Kentucky has Meeks, but this is a team that was 4-6 on the road this year. I think Creighton has something to prove, and will squeak out a win in this, and hopefully covering.

IMO this pick depends on attitude.

I don't like Creighton from a ratings standpoint as I make the game pick'em, but if you think that Creighton would have extra motivation and that this is worth more than two you might be OK, but you would need that assurance IMO.

Looking for the smart money moving the line might be worthwhile, hinting as to how Kentucky might play it.

Saint Mary's -4 vs. Davidson

I'm tired of hearing about Steph, and I think that nickname is gayer than Sean Penn winning an Oscar for portraying Harvey Milk. I think Saint Mary's rolls at home, with the other lamest nickname in college basketball, Patty Mills, dominating. St. Mary's is still pissed they didn't get in the tournament and will come out strong tonight at home. Note that St. Mary's only home loss this season was to a Sweet 16 Gonzaga team by 2 points.

My ratings say St. Mary's are entitled to a 5-point favouritism with normal home court advantage so they are the right side at (-4). However, if you are right inasmuch that St.Mary's enjoy more than a normal HCA then you might have quite a reasonable bet. Late fouls might help at this number too.

Also as Jack points out, when a team has been relying on one player for too long they are very vulnerable to any loss of form by him, especially if he has been at the very top of his game. Watch out for a regression to the mean!

Several good factors here; therefore I think this is your best bet of the four.

Even weaker leans:

Stanford Pick 'Em @ Wichita State

Again this one depends on motivational factors. Stanford are a clear choice in normal circumstances but, as I posted elsewhere, they seem to be treating this tourney as a training session. This might be alright at home with this sort of attitude but going away is a different matter - a team like Wichita State is going to love to knock off a team like Stanford.

There is actually a load of (+1) and even (+1.5) in two places on the oddschecker.com board on Stanford so the smart money may well have been going down on Wichita State.

I therefore could not recommend a pick'em play without being sure that the Cardinals will be giving a full effort.

Oregon State -1 vs. Vermont

I have absolutely no opinion here, agreeing exactly with the number.

Good luck,

Adrian

[drklrdbill]

Thanks for the comments all. I stuck with Creighton -2 and St. Mary's -4.5.

[Murdoch Sez]

my chiropracter thinks y'all should stop all this leaning or you could get a bad posture

i agree with davidson