Adrian's Thursday Thoughts [March 26th 2009]

[diondublin]

So, it is the Sweet Sixteen, although over here in England they are far more excited at Phil 'The Power' Taylor's 8-2 darts Premier League demolition of Raymond van Barneveld...

On with the hoops though, and I note that these games are in some cases very difficult to handicap well using ratings - the rarefied air of the best teams not lending itself to statistical confidence.

Judgement comes more into play, then, how do YOU feel the games might go?

Starting with Pittsburgh; they are a popular choice amongst the public and I was sorely tempted to play. However it is evident that there is smart money on Xavier which has seen the number drop to six-and-a-half.

This is normally a number I love to play the favourite on, so it is with regret that I have to pass.

Connecticut are a team I feel are over-rated, but my best rating number suggests they will win by nine. However my 'feel' tells me that this is too big and that the bookies number of six-and-a-half is about right.

I would not be surprised at all if one of Xavier and Purdue knocks off their more fancied opponent, so an outright 'double' is out of the question too.

Memphis (-4.5) are more like it in my opinion. I actually fancy them to go all the way in my bracket, and I feel that Missouri are nobodies at this level. With Memphis at #1, I cannot really create a ratings number with the way I look at things, but I feel sure that it should be more than 4.5 for this game. This is my best bet of the day.

Finally, Duke (-2) have been attracting smart money, and I see them more realistically as five-point favourites for the game with Villanova. I see Villanova as a second-level team whereas Duke are a top-level team. With both teams playing their utmost this class gap should really tell and I therefore feel that Duke represent a solid bet.

Good luck

Adrian Armstrong

[CRhoades]

Originally Posted by diondublin

Memphis (-4.5) are more like it in my opinion. I actually fancy them to go all the way in my bracket, and I feel that Missouri are nobodies at this level. With Memphis at #1, I cannot really create a ratings number with the way I look at things, but I feel sure that it should be more than 4.5 for this game. This is my best bet of the day.

Good luck

Adrian Armstrong

Sorry I couldn't reply earlier but I got stuck at the bowling alley (league night). As of me writing this Missouri is up by 14. The funny thing about this game is a lot of people agree with you. Everyone sees the Big 12 as a supbar conference and anyone from it gets that held against them. If one of the conferences between these two teams is inferior, it's certainly Memphis. C-USA is a joke. After Louisville and Cinn. left this conference became laughable.

With a decent chance for the Big 12 to have 3 of the Elite 8, it would be funny to see what the experts say. Don't get me wrong, I was one of the guys who bought into the hype about the Big 12 being the 5th or 6th best conference, but it's already plain that's not the case.