NCAA Final Four

[drklrdbill]

Any thoughts on these games?

I'm taking:

Michigan State +4.5

Tom Izzo's team has never lost as a #2 seed and is playing in Detroit. I respect Jim Calhoun and that he "makes much more than that," but I see this game being tight with Michigan State either squeaking out a win or losing a close one. For more information see: Michigan State vs. Louisville.

Villanova +7

This game I'm a little more worried about, but Nova has been playing tough all tourney. UNC has covered in every game so far and is due for a letdown. I don't think they've played a team as physical as Nova so far in the tourney and I think this will be a great matchup. I don't think Nova will win, but I'm pretty positive they keep it close.

[drklrdbill]

Michigan State came through as promised, but I didn't expect Villanova to shoot 4/26 from 3-point land.

Ridiculous. At least I made a little bit of a profit since I put some on MSU ML too.

[CaptainJack]

Nice call with Michigan State last night. That Villanova game was ugly. After Oklahoma shot terrible against Carolina too you start to wonder if this is just their year.

[diondublin]

Originally Posted by drklrdbill

Michigan State came through as promised, but I didn't expect Villanova to shoot 4/26 from 3-point land.

Ridiculous. At least I made a little bit of a profit since I put some on MSU ML too.

Yes well done I got 7/4 too.

Didn't like the UNC game as I often don't. I always feel they will win if they play well but also that they are fragile and may fail to do that, so there is rarely any margin in either side.

Thoughts for the final - I estimate it about 5-to-2 in favour of UNC, so the 27/10 or better about MSU appeals slightly but I feel that, as implied, the game is in UNC's ambit to take if they can play a solid game. Hence MSU do not really control their own destiny and thusly this predicates against a bet.

A tip I sometimes use here is to watch the players come out - do UNC look confident or scared is the question - and decide whether to take the value on MSU at gametime based on that analysis.

They never move the line on this yet I think it is potentially crucial in this game.

[diondublin]

Originally Posted by diondublin

Yes well done I got 7/4 too.

Didn't like the UNC game as I often don't. I always feel they will win if they play well but also that they are fragile and may fail to do that, so there is rarely any margin in either side.

Thoughts for the final - I estimate it about 5-to-2 in favour of UNC, so the 27/10 or better about MSU appeals slightly but I feel that, as implied, the game is in UNC's ambit to take if they can play a solid game. Hence MSU do not really control their own destiny and thusly this predicates against a bet.

A tip I sometimes use here is to watch the players come out - do UNC look confident or scared is the question - and decide whether to take the value on MSU at gametime based on that analysis.

They never move the line on this yet I think it is potentially crucial in this game.

Further to this final it is worth noting that those with access to Betfair can obtain 4.4 (3.4-to-1) on Michigan State, to a little over 500 GBP. I got 7/2 a little while ago, although I will have to pay 5% commission on any winnings, which makes it 3.325/1.

The best I can find with traditional bookies on oddschecker.com is 3/1, although many odds seem to have come off the board as though they think the game has begun...go figure!

[drklrdbill]

I took Michigan State +7.5, and then put half of that bet on MSU ML +310.

Let's go Spartans.

[drklrdbill]

Well the good news is that I took Michigan State 2H PICK. At least I didn't lose too much money in this game.

[diondublin]

Originally Posted by drklrdbill

Well the good news is that I took Michigan State 2H PICK. At least I didn't lose too much money in this game.

The smash seems to be broken (on Google Chrome, IE8 sux, at least)