College System for Feb 18, 2009

[ringneck82]

Rhoades - I think you have it except he's fading the system, so if KenPom says it should be -29 he's taking +25.

Bad news for either myself or your system today as the first three games I picked out to look into further are three of the biggest line differences on KenPom!

Couple questions....what exactly is "fading the system" and wouldn't he want to take Temple if his system says they are going to win by 29, when the line is 25?

Sorry for all the dumb questions....I just don't understand this yet.

[CaptainJack]

"Fading the system" - this would just mean going against what his system says would be a play.

You are correct that Temple would be the system play, but since he's "fading" it he's going with Fordham.

Hope this makes sense. I don't think he by any means has stated this is a solid system over the long haul, he just noticed a trend over a few days so he is starting to track it. At least that's what I've understood but someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

[pitter]

Another silly or dumb question from a rookie. Where do you go to find these kenpom numbers?

[CaptainJack]

Basketball games on 2/18/09 - click on the team name to see the predicted score.

Check post #9 for how to see the predicted scores.

[pitter]

Thanks Jack missed the whole first page because it took me to the second page of posts. Are these kenpom numbers more reliable and valuable then yesterday's topic of trend analysis? I think they would be. Yes? No?

[pitter]

Or is it like comparing apple's and oranges? Both numbers are in the genre of sports betting but not related enough to be directly correlated or compared?

[CaptainJack]

Well Pitter I haven't gotten too caught up in KenPom before, but judging by the thread someone seems to think that they are not worth a damn.

Personally, I like power rankings and computer simlulations, but it's possible KenPom isn't a very good indicator. Hopefully if he keeps posting this info we can figure it out.

[drklrdbill]

Hey, sorry, I was at work and DoD computers don't like gambling websites :D.

Yes, Jack is correct. I take the play opposite of what his prediction would say the play to make would be. I'm not betting any of these games, just trying to do an analysis to see how it works.

For the last two days, it is 11-4 ATS, and ignoring games with a difference of 1/2 a point, 10-2 ATS.

But today will really show how well the system will work, with a wide variety of games. Please note that it went 5-3 ATS yesterday, and two of the losses were Jack's picks (Bradley -7.5, Purdue -2.5), so best of luck tonight. Let's see how it goes.

[drklrdbill]

Ok, I modified the lines based on 13:41 CST Bodog lines. I'll lock my picks as of now where they are and see how they perform

[CaptainJack]

Great thread today. Getting a ton of page views and generating a lot of interest. I hope you are on to something with this system.