College System for Feb 18, 2009

[drklrdbill]

Ok, lots of games today. Let's see how this turns out, if the same thing holds with the games within .5 point of prediction, then I will cut those out for tomorrow too. But here is the system prediction, with the Pom prediction in parentheses, which we are obviously fading. If a game is marked push, the prediction = the line, so no play:

Fordham +25.5 (Temple by 29)
Drexel +8.5 (George Mason by 9)
Alabama +13.5 (Florida by 14)
Towson St. -3 (Towson by 2)
Marshall +5 (Houston by 7)
Georgia St. +13.5 (NE by 14)
Central Michigan Push (Central Michigan by 8)
Morehead State +4.5 (eastern Kentucky by 6)
NC-Wilmington +10.5 (Old Dominion by 11)
Rider +4 (Niagra by 5)
Bowling Green +9 (Buffalo by 10)
Toledo Pick (Ball state by 3)
Western Michigan Push (West Mich by 11)
Florida State -3 (Florida state by 1)
Penn State +9.5 (Illinois by 10)
Hofstra -3.5 (Hofstra by 2)
Richmond +5 (La Salle by 6)
Youngstown State +14.5 (Cleveland State by 15)
Mass +2 (Rhode Island by 3)
South Florida +6 (GT by 7)
ND +9.5 (WV by 12)
Akron -3.5 (Akron by 2)
Delaware +14.5 (VCU by 16)
Ga Tech +13.5 (WF by 18)
Georgia +3.5 (Auburn by 5)
Louisville Push (Louisville by 14)
Valparaiso +12 (GB by 15)
Ill-Chicago -2 (Wright State by 2)
TCU -10.5 (TCU by 10)
Colorado State +9 (Utah by 12)
Kansas -17.5 (Kansas by 16)
Memphis -26.5 (Memphis by 26)
Nc State +20 (UNC by 22)
Virginia Tech pick (Virginia by 1)
Tenn-Martin Push (Tenn-Martin by 5)
Miss State -3 (Miss State by 1)
Rice +7 (Texas-El Paso by 9)
Tulane +7 (UAB by 10)
Wis-MIlwaukee +5.5 (Butler by 7)
Tenn -5.5 (Tenn by 5)
Indiana State +8 (Southern Illinois by 10)
Arkansas +4 (LSU by 6)
Ill. State Push (Ill State by 9)
Drake +8 (Northern Iowa by 9)
Nebraska -12.5 (Nebraska by 11)
NW -1.5 (NW by 1)
Loyola-Chicago -5 (Loyola by 4)
Boise State -6 (Boise state by 5)
Texas Tech +1 (OK State by 4)
Wyoming +7 (UNLV by 8)
UCSB +1.5 (Pacific by 2)
UC Davis -1 (cal Poly by 1)
Cal State Fullerton -2.5 (cal State by 1)
Saint Louis Push (SLU by 1)
UC Irvine +2 (CSU Northridge by 6)

[CRhoades]

Interesting line on the Kansas game. Being a KU homer, I would have thought the line to be at least -20 at Allen Field House. I like these numbers you throw out though, kind of nice to look at if nothing else. I tend to shy away from systems that are completely computational in nature, but who knows.

[CaptainJack]

Thanks for the hard work here posting these numbers! I hope the system works out for you/us.

[ringneck82]

Can someone explain this system to me? I have no idea how you're coming up with these numbers. Just use the first example of Fordham and Temple if you would please.

[CRhoades]

If I'm understanding it correctly, he's comparing the Pomeroy prediction vs Vegas lines and going with ones that are a big difference. For instance with Fordham/Temple, the Vegas line is Fordham +25, whereas the Pomeroy shows Temple should win by 29, so in that case you would take Temple -25 because you're geting a value of +4 with Temple. I could be completely wrong but I think that's the gist of it. Obviously this system would be different depending on what the lines are with your book.

[CaptainJack]

Rhoades - I think you have it except he's fading the system, so if KenPom says it should be -29 he's taking +25.

Bad news for either myself or your system today as the first three games I picked out to look into further are three of the biggest line differences on KenPom!

[CRhoades]

Ahhh ok, that makes sense then. You basically just compare the faded number to your line and if there's a big difference then you go with the team it favors?

[ringneck82]

I don't see anything on KenPom saying Temple should win by 29. What column are you guys finding that information?

[CaptainJack]

Basketball games on 2/18/09 - click on the team name to see the predicted score.

[ringneck82]

Ahh, I see now. The light just came on.