College System for Feb 19, 2009

[drklrdbill]

Let's track this for Day #4 (so far it's 41-23). I will update this with the most recent lines from Bodog around 5-530PM CST and then lock in those picks.

Elon +2.5 (Western Carolina by 3)
NC Greensboro +3.5 (App state by 4)
Charlotte +6.5 (Xavier by 10)
Troy -3.5 (Troy by 3)
Michigan -3.5 (Michigan by 2)
Duke -14 (Duke by 12)
Charleston -6.5 (Charleston by 4)
Arkansas-Little Rock No play (Ark by 2)
South Alabama +5.5 (Middle Tennessee by 6)
Arkansas State No play (Arkansas State by 2)
Louisiana-Monroe +11.5 (North Texas by 14)
Loyola Marymount +35.5 (Gonzaga by 36)
Montana -3 (Montana by 2)
Oregon +6.5 (California by 11)
Rutgers +17 (Villanova by 18)
Denver -6 (Denver by 5)
Indiana +9.5 (Wisconsin by 11)
Tennessee St. +6.5 (Tenn Tech by 8)
George Washington -3.5 (GW by 2)
Montana State -3.5 (Montana St by 3)
Pepperdine +15 (Portland by 17)
Stanford No play (Stanford by 4)
Northern Colorado +10.5 (Portland St by 12)
USC -6.5 (USC by 4)
Fresno State -4 (Fresno State by 3)
UCLA -9 (UCLA by 8)
San Diego +13 (St. Mary's by 14)

[CaptainJack]

Xavier and Cal are off by quite a bit, and from what I can tell there aren't any injuries/suspensions unless I'm totally in the dark about something. Too bad I'm a sucker and biting on Cal tonight.


One thing I want to point out to you is games without lines. Like you have Stanford push when it should be -4, but everywhere I've seen it's -4. I like Troy is like that too.

However, I liked both of those I'm pointing out so let's hope that system keeps cashing on those two!

[pitter]

I also like Cal, Stanford, wasn't sure about Xavier. Jack what do you think about Fresno st at home -4 against Hawaii?

[CaptainJack]

Hawaii =

I don't think you can go wrong going against Hawaii when they head to the mainland, even though they did just pull one off over La Tech (who is terrible).

Fresno has been pretty solid over the past month at home, but they aren't a great team. It's a no play for me, but I'd lean towards the Bulldogs.

[abella154]

DUKE will win tonight by at least 20. GL with your system!

[drklrdbill]

Xavier and Cal are off by quite a bit, and from what I can tell there aren't any injuries/suspensions unless I'm totally in the dark about something. Too bad I'm a sucker and biting on Cal tonight.


One thing I want to point out to you is games without lines. Like you have Stanford push when it should be -4, but everywhere I've seen it's -4. I like Troy is like that too.

However, I liked both of those I'm pointing out so let's hope that system keeps cashing on those two!

When the KenPom predicted score = the line, then I label it as a push. I'm thinking of modifying the system, so if the predicted score = the line, go with the favorite, as those games would have gone 5-3-1, to make the combined record 46-28-1. So I will modify those lines that equal the prediction to go to the favorite.

[drklrdbill]

Alright, tonight the system hasn't done as great, but I think I'm going to stick with my original plan and if a game prediction = the spread, I will stick with a no play for the system. I'll update with stats tomorrow morning after PT.

< Me running around the track

[drklrdbill]

System only went 12-11 last night ATS, for a total record of 52-34 ATS this week. Underdogs were 8-5 (33-19 overall), while favorites were 4-6 (20-15 overall).

I think the problem I need to fix is that when there are line shifts due to betting on the favorite, such as with the Duke game, I need to keep the original pick by the system for the opening spread of the underdog, and then just move the line according to what new odds you get with picking the underdog. Because, otherwise, it's a very flawed system when it comes to line changes.

Good luck again tonight, I think I'm going to stick to NBA, but who knows after I do my lunch-break analysis :D.