John's Thursday NCAA

[John]

If any opinions or thoughts on these please jump in because I have struggled of late and looking for help to get back on the winning side of things. Troy-2.5 @ Fla.Intl. Wisc.-9.5 @ Indiana Nova -17.5 vs.Rutgers Cal.-6.5 @ Oregon or if any thoughts or wise moves on anything else feel free to comment. After losing my head is cloudy so looking for help to clear my thoughts or really confuse me.
I liked Duke but may have jumped up too many but I really think its now the time for them to make a statement or write off the season and just hope for the best. Also wonder if line too high for St. Marys will they be content to win by 7-8 or are they out to prove something without Mills.

[CaptainJack]

John - moved you over here so we don't clog up his system thread, but I'll gladly throw in my two cents on your games.

Love Troy (can you say premium?)

I was leaning towards Indiana here instead of Wisconsin. Hate taking double digit favorites in a power conference like the Big 10. The Badgers have gotten back on track, but that was with three home games and a trip to a struggling Penn State.

Nova was a game I glanced over. For the most part I hate those large spreads. Are they 20 points better than Rutgers, yes. Will they keep playing hard up 15?

Cal is my big play of the day, but it almost looks too easy.

Duke I also liked early, but the line jumped up past the point of showing value.

Hope that helps and I keep my cards pretty small so you have my only two premiums for today in your bunch!

[abella154]

If F.I.U wins tonight i will be extremely surprised. GL with your other picks

[pitter]

I hate large spreads to in basketball because you never know how the game will end. Nova could get up by 25 and coast so they put in the subs and start thinking about the next game and then let rutgers cover or rutgers could sneak up and play the game of the year and keep it close. The point totals are too fluid. Earlier in the year I thought memphis was a lock the spread was like 13.5 and they were up 14 with the ball with time running out well the shot clock went off so it gave the ball to the other team. When they inbounded the ball the opposite team player went through Memphis like a hot knife threw butter. I know this could have happened in a game where the spread was smaller but when a team gets way up or down you never know how they will respond to a situation. I would go to the moneyline in a situaiton in which you think a team is a lock but are not sure about the spread. Its a safer bet not as rewarding but you usually win! What do you think Jack?

[CaptainJack]

I tend to stay away from money lines for the most part. The vig for the books tends to be pretty large on those, for instance St. Mary's is -1000 tonight but San Diego is only +700.

I'm more likely to take a money line on a close spread where I think a +4 dog will win outright.

[pitter]

Makes sense I just never knew what the best approach is when a spread is large. I hate big numbers. Probably best to stay completely away. Thanks Jack

[pitter]

Makes sense I just never knew which way to go on games with large spreads. I guess the safest thing to do is stay away. Thanks Jack!

[knuckles1]

pitter I was on that Mem.game too,and everytime they would get up to cover they relax,until the last play ended it.
Really is a tuff card tonight,but it seems like the home favs are winning this year,and if Nova wants to they could cover,but could also shut it down and Rut.backdoors you.,GL tonight

[drklrdbill]

Large spreads are hard to take. I usually only fade them if it's on a public team, but I'm passing on the Duke game tonight. Duke plays like a bunch of madmen, never know who will show up.

[abella154]

I just got Troy at -4 . LETS GO TROJANS!!!!