Sunday Service Plays

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SAN DIEGO over *MIAMI by 7
The San Diego Chargers should be nicknamed the Cardiac Kids for their propensity to coast
through the first half, then explode in the second half of games. That being said, Norv Turner
might have a reason to suffer an actual heart attack if there is reason for the Chargers to
need a second half comeback to defeat the Dolphins. Of course, he probably felt that way
when the Chargers allowed the Raiders to tie the game with 3 minutes left last week, but the
Chargers were once again able to pull it out. What’s most important for the gambler to realize
is that San Diego is an extremely talented but inconsistent team that has yet to coalesce.
Shawne Merriman’s injury has had an incredibly detrimental effect and the defense remains
a trouble spot that could be exploited by a creative offensive package out of Miami offensive
coordinator, Dan Henning. While the Miami defense hasn’t been spectacular, they have managed
to hang with solid offenses for most of the year. Having the bye week to game plan
should help the Dolphins hang with the Chargers for most of this game. Ultimately, the superior
firepower of the Chargers will cement the outcome, but be wary of an inflated point
spread and a Miami coaching staff that will do whatever it takes to even up the playing field
on game day. SAN DIEGO 27-20.



*CAROLINA over KANSAS CITY by 13
The absolute lack of any kind of pass rush or run defense by the Denver Broncos made the
Kansas City Chiefs look like a legitimate NFL offense for one week, at least. However, facing
an elite level defense like Carolina on the road will revert the Chiefs right back to their pedestrian
performances of the first three weeks. Damon Huard, who was benched for Tyler
Thigpen due to injury and ineffectiveness, will prove to be a great target against the strong
Carolina pass rush and the combination of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will face
little resistance against an inexperienced and inconsistent Kansas City front seven.
Conversely, Larry Johnson will find it difficult to put up another 100-yard game against a
stout run defense that has depth on the defensive line and fast linebackers to chase down
running backs in pursuit. It’s not like LJ is the fastest running back around and he’ll find it
more difficult to break tackles against a defense that does more than just stick an arm out
when trying to stop a moving object. The aging Patrick Surtain and his fellow cornerbacks
will prove witness to the improving rapport between Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith, which
in turn will open up the entire Carolina passing offense. Just witness what Muhsin
Muhammad did last week – while that is certainly not a performance that will repeat every
week, the return of Smith gives the Panthers one more option to worry the defense. CAROLINA
23-10.



*PHILADELPHIA over WASHINGTON by 3
Redskins are off a hard-fought win against division rival Dallas, the kind of thing that sometimes
can take the air out of a team temporarily. Yet the points we said were coming
Washington’s way in the Gibbs (ZZZzzz)-to-Zorn switch have materialized: 29, 24, 26 since
the opening night stonewalling suffered in New York. Gibbs and Al Saunders are looking like
human anchors now. You wouldn’t want to be a Philadelphia defensive player in practice this
week after they allowed Kyle Orton of the Bears to look like a champ in only the first half last
Sunday night. They will be drummed into a frenzy and be looking to take it out on Jason
Campbell and the Redskins. Can they? The Eagles have always prided themselves on allowing
yards but stiffening in the red zone, which didn’t happen last Sunday. Campbell has
always had problems producing in the red zone, and one Sunday’s work at Dallas isn’t
enough evidence that this problem has ceased. Getting Westbrook back would help the
Eagles soften up the Skins’ D and take the pressure off their own. PHILADELPHIA, 23-20.



CHICAGO over *DETROIT by 2
Somehow, Detroit was 2-0 vs. Chicago last season. They did something they usually do not
do – win – twice. Therefore, they are capable of doing it again. They are a group of blockheads
seeking to rise above the label, an often-dangerous mix. They have the added edge of
coming off a bye week, while the Bears played the Sunday Night game vs. Philadelphia last
week. Once again, the Lions alleged brain trust was in front of the big screen, passing around
the Pretzel Thins and Diet Squirt, thinking about how they might put their players in position
to beat the Bears, and hoping that their quarterback, Charlie Brown-head Kitna, doesn’t point
the gun at his own team despite no real running game to support him, which is one reason
for Kitna’s repeated self-inflicted wounds. Detroit’s ownership kicked the architect of their
mess out of his chair since they last played, but Matt Millen wasn’t on the field or coaching
the Lions, and the Ford family still has major karmic payback coming its way for manufacturing
machines that have killed more people than any other invention besides guns and
bombs, polluting the atmosphere and burning precious energy in the process. The Bears are
healthier on defense this season than they were for either of the meetings vs. Detroit in ’07,
and their o-line protects well enough. CHICAGO, 23-21.


NEW ENGLAND over *SAN FRANCISCO by 8
Matt Cassell isn’t Tom Brady – both of their mothers and the entire world knows that, including
the San Francisco 49ers. In fact, rumors persist that rookie Kevin O’Connell, a third round
pick out of San Diego State, may see some playing time against the 49ers. Bill Belichick has
had an extra week of preparation time to limit the exposure of his team’s weakest assets
while realizing that new San Francisco quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan has a tendency to hold on
to the football for way too long. Expect the Patriots to keep the pressure on O’Sullivan all day
long, which should result in Frank Gore receiveing a heavy workload. The 49ers just might
be able to hang with the big boys for a while, as the Patriots are traveling west for a nonconference
road game and may not be fully there mentally. But the prospect of chasing a 4-
0 Buffalo team should ensure that the Patriots pull out a victory over a team they have a
superior talent edge against. NEW ENGLAND 24-16.


*DALLAS over CINCINNATI by 20
Knee-jerk reaction would be to say that because Cincinnati went into New York as a two-TD
underdog and took the NFC East Giants to overtime, they will come into Dallas and stay close
with the Cowboys. Hey, they might, anything is possible, but it’s also possible that the
Bengals will have picked yet another bad week to be the Bengals, with Dallas coming off
their first loss last Sunday. Before the season started, we talked about how Dallas had prepared
itself for inevitable NFC East defeats by bringing in assistant coaches with recent experience
in the AFC, including new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, who was Cleveland’s
defensive coordinator for three seasons and game-planned against the Bengals six times in
that span. Even Wade Phillips, the head coach, game-planned against Bob Bratkowski’s
Cincinnati system when he was defensive coordinator of the Chargers in 2006. Cincinnati is
no stranger to the locker-room string pullers, whose ego-bruised player puppets will be
foaming at the mouth to get their stats back up to par this Sunday. Winless Cincinnati’s
seams could be unraveling and if the Dallas pass rush is effective, it may not matter whether
or not Carson Palmer returns from a sore elbow. He missed a key AFC North game last
Sunday, so the injury has to be significant. DALLAS, 37-17.




*JACKSONVILLE over PITTSBURGH by 8
Two straight game-winning field goals by Josh Scobee has given the Jaguars a .500 record
and a new lease on life. The Jacksonville offensive line has been slowly improving after a terrible
start to the season, as has their defensive line, and the performance of David Garrard
and the run defense is testament to that improvement. Conversely, any offseason talk about
Pittsburgh’s offensive line having turned the corner has been exposed as fradulent and erroneous,
after the way Ben Roethlisberger has been knocked around like a pinball all season.
The big quarterback is dealing with an injured throwing shoulder and has been battered
around every game without failure. The Jaguars should be able to exert similar pressure on
the quarterback this week and the absence of Willie Parker and the reliance on rookie
Rashard Mendenhall, who has noticeably struggled with blitz pick-ups in his young career,
should make the pass protection a precarious situation once more. The Jaguars are slowly
rising up after a disastrous start to the season and facing an injured Pittsburgh squad coming
off a short week of rest should help them achieve a winning record for the first time this
season. JACKSONVILLE 23-15.



MONDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 6
MINNESOTA over *NEW ORLEANS by 1
You can buy the 1-3 SU and ATS Vikings cheap, despite the very real fact that they are transitioning
from the one of the best opposing offensive-defensive line combinations
(Tennessee) to one of the weakest. New Orleans’ running game, so-so at best, attempts to
dent a good run defense that did everything it needed to do last week in a loss, and might
get rewarded if they bring it again here. The Vikings will contain the run and they have the
speed on defense – especially at linebacker -- to chase down Bush on those screen and
wideout pass plays. Drew Brees has nightmares about floating balls over the line and into
Cover-2 defenses. The Saints’ ability to stop anything that moves with a purpose (do not
count the San Francisco 49ers’ offense as something that moves with a purpose) is highly
suspect. MINNESOTA, 24-23.

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NFL

THE SPORTS MEMO - NFL


MARTY OTTO
INDIANAPOLIS -3 AT HOUSTON
O/U 47
Recommendation: Over
I normally wouldn’t play an NFL total lined this high but some real fundamental and situational factors line up and make this one hard to pass up. For starters, the Houston defense just can’t keep opponents off the scoreboard. They’ve given up at least 30 points in all three of their games thus far, equally gashed on the ground and through the air even by modest offensive teams like Jacksonville and Tennessee. While I think the Colts’ offense is somewhat diminished from recent years due to poor health along the front line, they did have the luxury of working out the kinks during their bye last week. Going back to the second half of the Minnesota game we have seen Peyton Manning shake off some of the rust after missing camp with a knee injury and the running game finally make a contribution. When the game has been on the line Manning
has led his team to easy points and I don’t see him having a problem picking apart Houston’s shady secondary. I don’t however think the Colts’ defense will be able to fix their problems in one week. They are undersized and inexperienced and the sudden emergence of Steve Slaton for Houston will add to the Colts’ misery in stopping
the run. Six straight in this head-to-head have gone Over and this makes seven.


FAIRWAY JAY
SAN DIEGO AT MIAMI +7
Recommendation: Miami
Two weeks ago we cashed our easiest winner of the season when the Dolphins (+12.5) traveled to New England and crushed the AFC Champs 38-13. Now back in action and coming off a bye week, Miami is in a very strong situation as a big home underdog. Numerous strong situational systems support Miami this week, as the players and coaches have the extra week of preparation and planning while the public still approaches these fish as dead and unable to swim with the big fish. The Chargers were losing 15-0 at halftime last week and struggled mightily with the Raiders before scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter to get the 28-18 victory and a remarkable pointspread cover. Oakland had some injured offensive linemen and less than 100% running backs, but still managed to outgain San Diego despite
Tomlinson’s big late touchdown run. This week it will be the Dolphins’ ground attack of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams that can chew up yardage similar to how the Panthers and Broncos (140+ each rushing) did while beating San Diego in weeks 1 and 2. Add in some single wing sets, short Pennington passes and a stronger
and improving Dolphins’ defense and this ‘Dog should be ready to bite again.



DONNIE BLACK
BUFFALO AT ARIZONA -1.5
Recommendation: Arizona
The Cardinals were 2-15 straight up in the Eastern Time Zone entering their game against the New York Jets. To spark some success the organization decided
to stay on the East Coast for the entire week. Many players were not in favor of the plan. Kurt Warner was the most outspoken against it and perhaps the results were indicative of his displeasure. The game results were not good as the Cardinals lost 56-35 and Warner had three fumbles lost and three interceptions. The Cardinals showed some spark as the offense
in the second half was tremendous. However, the defense could not slow down Brett Favre on his way to six touchdown passes. Off the big loss the Cardinals return home to face the perfect 4-0 Buffalo Bills who rallied in the second half to win and cover against the St. Louis Rams. Buffalo was outgained by more than 100 yards and was only 3-of-13 on third down yet was able to manage a 17-point win. For Buffalo, this will be the best team in the most favorable situation that they have faced this season. We expect Arizona to earn the win as we eagerly grab the small line in this matchup.

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TEDDY COVERS NEWS AND NOTES


Bengals - Ryan Fitzpatrick is certainly no Carson Palmer; really struggling
with the down field passing game. 57 yards and two interceptions
in the first half doesn’t cut it, even for a backup. A big part of the problem is the offensive line. There’s no running game to support the quarterback here, and Fitzpatrick does not have time to find receivers down field. Chris Perry leads NFL running backs in fumbles through four games, another very bad sign. Even with multiple injuries in the secondary,
Cinci did do a solid job of shutting down the Browns passing game, the lone bright spot for the afternoon. This team is playing passionless football, and that’s a very bad sign this early in the season.


Bills - This is a team to bet against in the first quarter/first half. The sluggish starts have been a consistent thing for Buffalo; three straight weeks in which they’ve looked half asleep early. This offensive line is not getting the job done here - Trent Edwards took way too many hits and Marshawn Lynch did not have room to run. We forget how young this team actually is - there are only six players on the roster on the wrong side of 30. Hence, the lapses in concentration and intensity are perfectly understandable. And with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, no team in the NFL has stepped up better than the Bills so far this young season, turning fourth quarter deficits into victories in each of their last three ball games.


Broncos - Brandon Marshall might be the single best receiver in the NFL right now. The guy has linebacker size, but the softest hands around and the ability to outleap defenders. His touchdown catch to give the Broncos the lead here was truly a thing of beauty. With Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler, this passing game is borderline unstoppable, all with players that have three years of experience or less; an outstanding core group to build around. Too bad Jay Cutler had an awful afternoon, his first bad game of the season. This run defense is getting pushed around badly. The problems Denver has had with its front seven in recent years aren’t solved. Dre Bly is clearly the weak link in this secondary. This is not an upper echelon defense by any stretch of the imagination.


Chargers - LaDainian Tomlinson is a complete non-factor right now. It’s perfectly clear to anyone who is impartially watching that Darren Sproles is the more explosive running back. Every time Ted Cottrell calls a blitz, something good seems to happen. Every time the defense drops back into coverage, something bad seems to happen - the pass rush simply isn’t there without the blitz. I just can’t fathom why they aren’t blitzing on almost every play. Does anyone else think that Nate Kaeding is the spitting image of a young Bob Newhart, especially following
a missed field goal?


Chiefs - Herm Edwards refused to take a chance on fourth and short from inside the two yard line, settling for 23 and 21-yard field goals in the first quarter. It’s not rocket science to recognize that Edwards is too conservative, but this was downright ridiculous; a coach more interested in hanging around than in putting pressure on their opponent
right from the get-go. These rookie cornerbacks are going to have their share of growing pains. Punter Dustin Colquitt really might be the most important pointspread player on this team, consistently pinning the Broncos deep in their own territory. With all the money and high draft choices they’ve spent on their defensive line over the past few seasons, I have only one question - where’s the pass rush! Key injury to first round draft choice, offensive lineman Brandon Albert, who was carted off the field. At least Larry Johnson showed up today, carrying the team on his back to earn their first win since last October despite the offensive line woes.


Jaguars - These safeties are really struggling in pass coverage - the secondary depth here is not very good. And the once vaunted run defense
looked a bit suspect here - I’ve got serious questions about this defense. The Jags offense had the ball for 26 minutes in the second half against Indy last week, but that was only because the Colts were scoring so quickly. Here, the Texans were able to control the clock for a good portion of the game against Jacksonville. This coaching staff is making excellent adjustments at halftime. For the third week in a row, the Jags came out in the second half and marched down the field, taking control of a close game. David Garrard is really taking apart the Texans secondary with short, precise throws. Four drives in the second half and overtime; four scores.


Jets - Their uniforms are ugly enough to warrant some discussion here. Aren’t the Jets a green and white team, not a yellow-and-blue team? Quit messing me up! This was the second straight week that we’ve seen some ball-hawking potential out of this defense. On Monday
Night, the Jets had a pick six, and they had another one here with Darrelle Revis. Shaun Ellis forced a Kurt Warner fumble for a loss of 23 yards, negating a red zone opportunity, then Dwight Lowery created a turnover two plays later with a devastating hit on Anquan Boldin, recovered by the newly signed Hank Poteat. This young secondary is making some plays! Forcing five first half turnovers goes a long way towards notching a victory in a must win game.


Raiders - The Raiders were able to run the football effectively, even when facing eight or nine men in the box. And with the opposing defense selling out to stop the run, for the second straight week we saw a big play catch and run touchdown throw from JaMarcus Russell. But the passing game couldn’t carry the offense after halftime - held to a single first down for the first 25 minutes of the second half. And once Russell was faced with some blitzes, the offensive production declined markedly.
Texans - The whole offense is predicated on Matt Schaub’s ability to hit receivers in stride, and he’s just not doing that right now. Andre Johnson isn’t running crisp routes, and their shots down the field to Johnson aren’t connecting. Even the bread and butter of the offense, the underneath routes, are not connecting. One touchdown in six red zone possessions heading into this game, and it was a problem again here. Rookie running back Steve Slaton is very slippery, the perfect fit for this offense. But when the offense finally found some rhythm, the defense fell apart, allowing four scores on four drives after halftime. This secondary really is bottom tier - they need Dunta Robinson to get healthy ASAP.