Sunday Service Plays

[TheFade]

WUNDERDOG

Game: Buffalo at Arizona (Sunday 10/05 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 44.5 -110
We were on the OVER last week in the Cardinals game vs. the Jets and they exceeded the total - twice! One look at Arizona last week shows something of interest. They turned the ball over seven times meaning they had seven possessions interupted, but still manged 35 points! That is hard to ignore, especially playing at home. Kurt Warner is a savvy veteran, and I would expect he gets redemption here, and moves the offense as he has with less mistakes. The Bills have turned very offensive behind a developing Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch and WR Lee Evans. Arizona has a QB rating against their defense of 102.4, so look for the pass happy Bills to chew up yardage just like the Favre and the Jets did last week. The Cards, after putting up 350 yards or more in their previous game, have been an astounding 42-17 to the OVER in their next game. They are also 16-6 OVER as an underdog the past three seasons. This one should have plenty of scoring and again go OVER.



SCOTT FERRALL

NFL Week Five Free Plays

BALTIMORE +3 from Tennessee--Ravens show the Titans who's boss. Tenn isn't going to the Super Bowl like everyone is thinking. I like Flacco and that Baltimore defense, particularly at home

CAROLINA -9.5 to Kansas City--The Panthers aren't going to let Larry Johnson go off for 198 like he did last week against Denver in KC. The Chiefs still blow and will lay down in Charlotte--Steve Smith has a big game in this one

PHILLY -5.5 to Washington--The Eagles bounce back from the loss at Soldier Field and work over the Skins, who everyone will be pouncing on after they beat Dallas in Big D. They aren't winning two straight on the road. The Eagles D is the difference in this game

DENVER -3 to Tampa--The Bucs have been pretty tough, but not in the thin air at Mile High. Cutler has a field day with Marshall and Royal

[TheFade]

Dr. Bob
BALTIMORE 17 Tennessee (-2.5) 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
The Ravens and Titans have had two of the best defensive teams in the NFL so far this season with Baltimore allowing just 3.5 yppl in 3 games and Tennessee yielding only 4.2 yppl. Baltimore’s defense has taken a couple of hits with the injuries to CB Samari Rolle and S Dawan Landry and the Ravens went from allowing just 2.7 yards per pass play in their first 2 games to given up 6.2 yppp to the Steelers on Monday night. Baltimore has a history of struggling against the pass when either Rolle or fellow CB Chris McAllister are out, but the secondary still looked decent last week and the run defense is outstanding (3.2 ypr allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.0 ypr against an average team). Tennessee won’t have any success running the football in this game, but Kerry Collins should post decent numbers by picking on backup CB Fabian Washington. Baltimore’s offense depends on the running of bruising back Le’Ron McClain (215 yards at 4.1 ypr), but the Titans are 0.6 ypr better than average at defending the run (3.8 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team) and Ravens’ rookie quarterback Joe Flacco (just 4.6 yards per pass play) isn’t going to have any success throwing against a very good Tennessee pass defense that’s yielded just 4.5 yppp to teams that would average 5.8 yppp against an average team. Baltimore does have an edge in special teams, but my ratings favor Tennessee by 3 ½ points. I’ll still lean with Baltimore, however, based on a 122-54-8 ATS statistical indicator and a 74-32-3 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests the Ravens are the type of team that should cover as a home underdog.


Atlanta 0 GREEN BAY (pick) 0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I have a possible Best Bet on this game, but there is currently no line. Check back on Friday or Saturday (after the line goes up) for that analysis.


Chicago (-3.5) 26 DETROIT 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
It’s unlikely that Detroit will continue to play as poorly as they have been playing and bye weeks are usually a good tonic for ailing teams (underdogs after a bye are 40-20 ATS if they lost 3 or more consecutive games before their bye week), but I will still lean with the Bears in this game. Detroit has been out-gained by an average of 5.0 yards per play to 7.3 yppl by a mediocre schedule of teams and even significant improvement won’t be enough to win this game unless the Bears are completely flat. Chicago is still a below average offensive team (I rate them at 0.2 yppl below average), but the Bears’ defense has been very good so far in allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. My ratings favor Chicago by 9 ½ points in this game and the line value favoring Chicago is more significant than the favorable situation applying to Detroit.


CAROLINA (-9.5) 27 Kansas City 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Kansas City is much better with rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen on the bench and Damon Huard was at quarterback last week when the Chiefs upset the Broncos. Kansas City was in a very good situation last week, so don’t overreact to that one win. The Chiefs’ pass attack is still bad with Huard at quarterback, as he was 0.7 yards per pass play worse than average last season (5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and he has averaged just 5.5 yppp on 49 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp). Kansas City’s rushing attack suddenly looks pretty good (5.0 ypr) after Larry Johnson toyed with the Broncos’ defense for 198 yards last week. Overall the Chiefs are 0.5 yards per play worse than average offensively, but they’ll be up against a Panthers’ defense that’s allowed just 4.8 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Kansas City’s scoring opportunities will be limited and Carolina could easily pull away in this game with a slightly better than average attack going up against a bad KC stop unit that’s surrendered 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 ypppl against an average team. My math model favors Carolina by 15 points, but Kansas City applies to a very strong 55-16-2 ATS statistical profile indicator. The Chiefs also apply to a negative 19-50-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win. I’ll lean with Carolina based on the line value even though the technical analysis slightly favors Kansas City.


HOUSTON 24 Indianapolis (-3.0) 23
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Peyton Manning misses all of training camp and the pre-season and he hasn’t looked right the first 3 games of this season while averaging just 6.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback). The bye week should help Manning work out the kinks and I still rate the Colts’ pass attack among the league’s best, but Indy’s rushing attack has been bad (3.6 ypr) and Houston should be pretty fired up to be playing a game at home after starting the season with 3 road losses (home dogs or picks are 7-4 ATS at home after 3 consecutive road losses). I had high expectations for the Texans this season and I used them last week for a Best Bet winner in their 27-30 overtime loss as a 7 point dog. Houston’s offense finally played up to their potential last week, averaging 6.3 yards per play against the Jags, and that unit should perform well against a Colts’ defense that has had a tendency to struggle without reigning NFL Defensive MVP Bob Sanders in the lineup (he’s out 4 to 6 weeks with an injured ankle). The Colts gave up 403 yards at 5.8 yppl to the Jaguars in their first game without Sanders, which is a worse than average performance, and I think the Texans will move the ball pretty well in this game. Houston’s defense hasn’t looked good this season, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, so Manning could bust out with a good game if the bye week served to get his timing back. My ratings favor Houston by 1 point, so I’ll lean with the Texans plus the points.


San Diego (-6.5) 27 MIAMI 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
The Chargers were lucky to get the spread win last week as a road favorite at Oakland, as they scored their final touchdown while trying to run out the clock after being down 0-15 at the half. The Chargers were in a bad situation last week and this week they face a Dolphins team that applies to a 38-8-3 ATS momentum situation and a 23-3 ATS home underdog off a bye angle. Miami destroyed New England 38-13 prior to their bye week and the Dolphins aren’t a bad team. Miami has a pretty good offense with a better than average rushing attack (4.4 ypr against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr to an average team) and a decent quarterback in Chad Pennington, who lit up the Patriots with 17 of 20 passing for 226 yards. Miami played great defensively against the Patriots, allowing just 3.7 yards per play, but they were exploited by Kurt Warner and the Cardinals for 7.8 yppl in week 2, so it’s tough to say how that unit will play today. San Diego’s explosive offense has averaged 6.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team and the Chargers should move the ball at their normal pace in this game (although I do think Philip Rivers will have a tough time keeping up the 8.5 yards per pass play average). Miami is certainly capable of keeping this game close against a mediocre Chargers’ defense that’s allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team (they miss Shawne Merriman). My ratings favor San Diego by 7 ½ points and using this year’s games only would result in a prediction of Chargers by 12 points. San Diego does apply to an 84-41-4 ATS situation, but that angle isn’t as good as the situational analysis that favors Miami. This game is tough to call with the line value favoring San Diego and the technical analysis favoring Miami.

[TheFade]

PHILADELPHIA (-6.0) 21 Washington 12
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Washington looked confused by their new offense in their opening 7-16 loss to the Giants, but the Redskins appear to have figured out the new attack and have won 3 straight games, including their upset win in Dallas last week. That win was no fluke, as the Redskins have established themselves as one of the best teams in the league. Washington is now 0.4 yards per play better than average on offense (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and they’ve only turned the ball over 1 time in 4 games. That good fortune isn’t likely to last but Washington can rely on their underrated defense is they start to turn the ball over more. Washington has allowed a modest 5.4 yppl this season, but they’ve done so by holding 4 very good offensive teams (NYG, New Orleans, Arizona, and Dallas) to 1.0 yppl below the 6.4 yppl that those teams would combine to average against an average defensive team. The pass defense has been especially impressive in holding Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, and Tony Romo to just 5.9 yards per pass play. Donovan McNabb has above average passing numbers (6.6 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback), but he’ll probably struggle some too against the Redskins great pass defense. Philly’s rushing attack has been bad (3.8 ypr) and star RB Brian Westbrook will miss his second straight game this week. Westbrook’s absence actually doesn’t make the offense any worse, as he was averaging just 3.8 ypr this season while good backup Correll Buckhalter has averaged 4.1 ypr and 4.4 ypr for his career. While Philly rates at 0.3 yppl better than average offensively, their defense is what makes the Eagles a Super Bowl contender, as they’ve allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit. These are two of the top teams in the NFL and my math favors Philly by just 4 points, which is too bad because the Redskins apply to a negative 1-17-1 ATS subset of a 14-45-2 ATS letdown situation that is based on their win as a big dog last week. I’ll favor Philly to cover based on that situation despite the negative line value.


NY GIANTS (-7.0) 26 Seattle 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Seattle has been a below average team so far this season, but the Seahawks get some much needed help on offense with the addition of starting wide receivers Bobby Engram and Deion Branch, who have yet to play this season and have both been upgraded to probable for this game. Seattle has had to scramble to find receivers to fill their roster with Engram and Branch out and with Nate Burleson getting injured in the first game of the season. Only Billy McMullen has been good (7 catches for 124 yards on 15 passes thrown to him in 2 games) and the wide receivers have combined to average just 5.3 yards per pass attempted, which is a horrible figure for wide receivers. Bobby Engram has consistently averaged 8.3 ypa in recent years and Branch has an average of 7.5 ypa in two seasons with Seattle. Throwing those two in with McMullen should put Matt Hasselbeck at around 8.0 ypa to his wide receivers, which would result in going from 4.9 yards per pass play that Hasselbeck is at now to 6.2 yppp, which is his career average. Seattle has a good rushing attack (4.9 ypr against teams that would allow 4.6 ypr) and the Seahawks are suddenly an average offensive team after rating at 0.6 yards per play worse than average through 3 games. Seattle won’t likely have too much success in this game against a very good Giants’ defense that has been 0.9 yppl better than average (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Seattle’s defense has been mysteriously mediocre so far this season, allowing 5.2 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.2 yppl, and that unit is up against a good Giants’ attack that has averaged 6.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack). The suspension of Plaxico Burress hurts the attack, as Burress has gained 259 yards on 28 passes thrown to him (9.3 ypa) while the other receivers Smith, Toomer, and Hixon have combined for an average of just 6.9 ypa. After making all the adjustments I still get New York by 11 points mathematically. Seattle applies to a very good 38-8-3 ATS underdog momentum situation, but New York applies to a 64-29-4 ATS statistical profile indicator. I’ll lean with the Giants.


DENVER (-3.0) 27 Tampa Bay 26
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Denver has been fantastic offensively this season (6.7 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Broncos can’t stop their opponents from being just as effective (they’ve also allowed 6.7 yppl – to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). The visiting Buccaneers are nothing special offensively overall (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl), but Earnest Graham (334 yards at 5.9 ypr) and Warrick Dunn (197 yards at 4.7 ypr) should be able to run wild against a Broncos defensive front that’s allowed 5.0 ypr to teams that would combine to average just 4.2 ypr against an average team. Tampa Bay represents the best defensive team that the Broncos have faced so far (the Bucs are 0.4 yppl better than average), but Denver should still be able to put up enough points to keep up with what their defense allows. My math model favors Denver by 1 ½ points and there are indicators favoring both sides in this game, so I’ll lean with Tampa Bay plus the points.



New England (-3.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here



DALLAS (-17.0) 33 Cincinnati 13
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Cincinnati is now 0-4 after losing to the previously winless Browns last week and they will once again be without quarterback Carson Palmer, who was a game time decision to sit out last week’s game. Ryan Fitzpatrick was horrible, averaging just 3.7 yards per pass play against a Cleveland secondary that had been having problems defending the pass. Fitzgerald has averaged 4.8 yppp on 182 career pass plays and he’s also thrown 11 interceptions, which is a lot of picks for so few passes (he threw 3 last week). The Cowboys may not be in a sympathetic mood for the winless Bengals after getting upset by the Redskins last week and my math model favors Dallas by 20 points in this game.

[TheFade]

ARIZONA (-1.0) 23 Buffalo 19
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
The Bills may be 4-0, but they’ve played a pretty easy schedule with just one decent opponent (a 20-16 win at Jacksonville) and they rate as below average from the line of scrimmage. Buffalo has averaged a modest 5.3 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and the Bills are just barely better than average defensively (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defensive unit). Buffalo annually has the NFL’s best special teams and they rank highly in that area again this season, so they are an above average team overall. Arizona, however, is also an above average team, as the Cardinals have been 1.0 yppl better than average offensively (5.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team) and only 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). Arizona’s offense takes a hit with the injury to star WR Anquan Boldin, who had amassed 366 yards on 35 passes thrown to him this season (10.5 ypa). Kurt Warner still has Larry Fitzgerald to throw to (10.4 ypa on 40 passes thrown to him), but the two receivers replacing Boldin combine to average 8.1 ypa so there will be a drop in production from the pass attack – although it will still be good. My math favors Arizona by 3 points after adjusting for the losses of Boldin and DL Bertrand Berry, who had 3 sacks in 3 games before getting hurt. Arizona applies to a 31-6 ATS bounce-back situation while Buffalo applies to an 84-41-4 ATS situation. The line value favors the Cardinals, and the angle favoring them is a bit stronger than the situation favoring Buffalo. I’ll lean with Arizona to hand the Bills their first loss.


JACKSONVILLE (-4.0) 20 Pittsburgh 17
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Jacksonville applies to a 46-11-4 ATS subset of a 122-54-8 ATS statistical indicator in addition to applying to a solid 240-152-12 ATS statistical profile indicator. While those angles are worthy of a play on the Jaguars, my math model suggest a play on the Steelers. Pittsburgh may be thin at running back, but losing Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall isn’t such a problem considering those two were averaging a combined 3.8 ypr this season. New starting back Mewelde Moore has a 4.8 ypr career average (although mostly in the advantageous role of 3rd down back) and he is a much better pass catcher, so having Moore get more snaps may help the offense. Pittsburgh will certainly probably throw the ball more and that is a good thing in this game considering how bad the Jaguars’ pass defense has been (7.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average team). Overall the Jags have been 0.7 yppl worse than average defensively, which is only slightly better than Pittsburgh’s offensive rating of -0.8 yppl. Where the Steelers have the advantage is their stifling defense (3.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) against a Jaguars’ attack that has averaged just 5.0 yppl in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Jacksonville is actually better than that offensively, as their patchwork offensive line struggled in the first two games with 3 new starters. The line has come together in recent games and Jacksonville has been 0.2 yppl better than average offensively over their last two games, which is about what I expect from them going forward. However, my math model favors Pittsburgh by 1 point even if I only use Jacksonville’s better offensive stats from their last two games. The line is too high and I’ll lean slightly with Pittsburgh even though the technical analysis strongly favors Jacksonville.


NEW ORLEANS (-3.0) 27 Minnesota 23
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-06 - Stats Matchup
Drew Brees is playing at an incredible level, as he’s averaged 8.8 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. It may be tough for Brees to maintain that high level of play, but he should post good numbers against a Vikings’ defense that is once again very good defending the run (3.1 ypr allowed) but every mediocre against the pass (6.2 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense). Minnesota’s offense has been better since Gus Frerotte was inserted at quarterback in week 3, as the Vikings have averaged 5.0 yards per play the last two games against good defensive teams Carolina and Tennessee, who would combine to allow just 4.6 yppl to an average team. I expect Adrian Peterson to have a big game running against a soft Saints’ defensive front that’s allowed 5.4 ypr this season (to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defensive team). New Orleans has been average in pass defense, but Frerotte has been better than average in his two games, throwing for 5.8 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback. My math model favors New Orleans by 6 points and the Saints apply to a very good 61-21-2 ATS Monday night situation. Minnesota, however, applies to a 55-16-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator and a 56-16-5 ATS game 5 angle. Tough call here, but I’ll lean slightly with New Orleans.


Rotation #424 San Francisco (+3 1/2) 3-Stars at +3 (-115 odds or better) or more and 2-Stars from +3 (-120 or worse) to +1.

The math model is included this week and the math only officially applies to games in which both teams have played at least 4 games each. The chance of covering listed in the math refers to the chance based solely on the math and does not include any situational analysis. To read my opinion on each game you should consult my free analysis section on the site.

3 Star Selection
*** SAN FRANCISCO 23 New England (-3.5) 17
01:15 PM Pacific, 05-Oct-08
I’ve been on the 49ers twice as Best Bets (1-1 in those) and once as a Strong Opinion (win over Detroit ) and I’m on them again this week against a Patriots’ team that is favored due to reputation rather than reality. New England was demolished 13-38 at home by the lowly Dolphins in week 3 prior to their bye week and the Pats have been out-gained 4.7 yards per play to 6.0 yppl while being out-scored by an average of 16.3 to 19.3 against a schedule that is 3.6 points easier than an average schedule. It’s no surprise that the Patriots’ offense is struggling without Tom Brady, as backup Matt Cassell has averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Opponents are blitzing Cassell into submission (he’s been sacked 10 times) and the rushing attack has been just mediocre (4.0 ypr against teams that would allow 4.0 ypr to an average team). The real question is what has happened to the defense? New England has allowed 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average team, but those numbers are misleading given that the Patriots played decent defense in two games while getting destroyed by Miami , who averaged 8.1 yppl in their stunning win. The Patriots’ defense wasn’t really good prior to that game, as they allowed 4.9 yppl to Kansas City and New York , who would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team (adjusted for New England facing KC’s Croyle and Huard and not the horrendous Tyler Thigpen). If the Patriots are average at best defensively, and they haven’t shown in any game that they’re any better than that, then they’ll struggle against a good 49ers’ attack that has averaged 5.9 yppl in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. The Niners also have an advantage over New England ’s sub-par offense, as they’ve allowed just 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. The 49ers held 3 of 4 teams to 4.9 yppl or less before Drew Brees lit them up last week and Matt Cassell is no Drew Brees. Expect San Francisco to keep the Patriots around their average of 16 points. My math model using this year’s stats only favors San Francisco by 11 points in this game, but New England ’s stats have been skewed by one horrible game. However, I decided to take the Miami loss out of the equation and I still get San Francisco by 3 ½ points in this game. Of course, I’d get the Niners by about 7 points if I also took out their worst game (last week’s loss to the Saints), but I’m trying to create a best case scenario for the Patriots and the Niners by 3 ½ points is it. In addition to the line value, San Francisco applies to a very strong 99-34-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 60-21-3 ATS when applying to home teams. You might think that the Patriots are due to kick some ass after losing to Miami , but the Pats are just 7-10 ATS as a favorite following a loss under coach Belichick, including 0-3 ATS after a bye week. I’ll take San Francisco in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars from +3 (-120 odds or worse) to +1.

[TheFade]

The Experts Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: I have isolated a Selection today that will beat the line by at least TWO TD'S! You can get our ULTIMATE EXPERTS NFL PLAY OF THE MONTH today for just $25 and you will be a winner or you will not be charged! WE ARE ON FIRE as we ar currently on a 34-15 RUN! ARE YOU?!? 10/4/2008

ULTIMATE EXPERTS NFL PLAY OF THE MONTH
426 Arizona -1 4:15 EST



The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: This will be the HAMMER'S LARGEST NFL FOOTBALL WAGER of the season. It's yours RIGHT HERE - RIGHT NOW guaranteed to bring home the GREEN BACKS or you don't pay! You can get the Hammers "Private Investors Club" NFL GAME OF THE YEAR right now for just $35 - GUARANTEED! The P.I.C. Selections go to the Hammers private members only and Exclusive to YouWinNow.com. 10/4/2008

"Private Investors Club" NFL GAME OF THE YEAR
430 Jacksonville -4 8:15 EST


Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Jack Clayton is on an 11-4 run in the NFL. He steps up on Sunday with another winning day, including his top play here, a 5-Star Chalk Game of the Month! Get aboard the red-hot bandwagon and pay ONLY when it covers! 10/4/2008

5* Chargers at Dolphins: I'm not sold that the Dolphins have turned things around after one stunning blowout win at New England. This is still a young, rebuilding team with a lot of holes and inexperience. The Chargers were not impressed with the way they beat New England, with trick plays and overshifts on the offensive line. "Gimmicky," cornerback Quentin Jammer said. The Chargers have spent time each day this week preparing to face the Miami Dolphins and their highly successful version of the single-wing offense. The Dolphins call it the "Wildcat" offense, and they scored four touchdowns in six snaps against the Patriots. The key in this game is the Chargers versatile, wide open offense against a weak Miami 'D'. This offense is No. 8 in the NFL and scoring a ton of points through the air and the ground. The Chargers are 13-4 SU/ATS as a favorite under Norv Turner. Miami doesn't have strong wideouts and and QB Chad Pennington has just 2 TDs, one pick in 3 games. They won at New England with the ground game, but the Chargers have a speedy secondary and can focus all their defensive effort in stopping the run and blitzing, something they did a lot of in the second half last week at Oakland. The Dolphins are 1-7 SU/ATS their last 8 in Miami. Play the Chargers.



Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$20.00 Guaranteed: There's a soft total that jumps off of Sunday's NFL card, when the oddsmakers overlooked, focusing too much on last season's stats. Get the inside take on this soft NFL total, and pay ONLY when it sails "over"! 10/4/2008

3* Chargers/Dolphins over: Both defenses are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL, with the Chargers at 28th. The defense gave up 26 points to Carolina and 39 at Denver. At least the offense is loaded, ranked 8th in the NFL, with a great offensive line, plus QB Philip Rivers has 10 TDs and 4 picks, alongside RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. They toasted the Jets in a 48-29 rout. Miami has defensive deficiencies that can be exploited by an good offensive mind like Norv Turner. Miami's offense is much better this season, with a stronger offensive line, a capable, veteran QB in Chad Pennington, plus RB Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins are 17th in total defense with a very young unit. Look for a lot of scoring, play the Chargers/Dolphins over the total



WILD BILL

Titans -2 1/2 (5 units)
Chiefs +9 1/2 (5 units)
Giants -7 (5 units)
Over 43 1/2 Seattle-Giants (5 units)
Patriots -3 (5 units)
Over 44 Bengals-Cowboys (5 units)
Steelers +3 1/2 (5 units)
Saints -3 (5 units)

[TheFade]

Handicapper: The Prez
League: NFL
Event: Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys on 10/05/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Over
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion:
8* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati at Dallas
Conditions: 70 degrees with light winds swirling inside the mostly enclosed venue It was just a matter of time before the Cowboys experienced the bad "T.O Factor" and their first bit of adversity in 2008. After sleepwalking through a 26-24 loss to the Washington Redskins Sunday afternoon, the Boyz received their quarterly wakeup call. The call that nearly all NFL teams receive. Ask the Broncos? Dallas was admiring themselves far too much heading into last week's divisional matchup against Washington -- that all changed their home loss to the hated Skins.

Bengals' defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who spent 10-plus years with the Cowboys as an assistant coach and coordinator and is now the Bengals' DC. He knows the subtle weaknesses of Tony Romo and will force his hand early on in this game. Expect the Bengals to give up everything underneath on Sunday afternoon, but eventually realize that Romo has grown enough to exploit the soft holes in their zones.

We expect zero man coverage from the Bengals, little to no blitzing and a ton of exotic looks. If Cincy had an ounce of talent on the stop-side of the football we'd consider giving them a chance and jump head first on the 17-points Dallas is giving up. Romo is careless, that's his gunslinger mentality, and he'll give the Bengals more than one short field on Sunday.

The winless Bengals are a mess; and with or without Carson Palmer this game is all about offense, big plays by both defenses and a lot of points as a result. With Palmer under center the two teams will combine to cross the 60-point mark, without him the contest still topples 50 in total points. There's no guarantee Palmer will play (TP sources report he will throw on Thursday, practice on Friday and start Sunday), but the Cowboys are the real story here. They will be more balanced in their play calling and shred a piss pour Cincy defense. Dallas can throw four capable receivers at the Bengals defense and Cincinnati has no matchup answer for TE Jason Witten.

However, Dallas' pass defense is suspect, and no matter who is tossing the football to Chad Ocho Cinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh -- this is the strongest total on the Week 5 card.

Once Palmer is announced as the starter for Sunday's game, the total in this game will creep upward. Get down on the current 44 mark now.

The OVER is 6-1 in Bengals last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

The OVER is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in October.

Cowboys score at least 35 points Sunday making this a Big Game OVER the TOTAL play.

8 UNIT Play on the OVER




Handicapper: Jimmy Sirody
League: NFL
Event: Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles on 10/05/2008 at 10:00AM
Condition: Under
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Philadelphia and Washington have made it a habit of going under, turning the trick in 20 of the past 31 meetings. The trend that grabbed my attention is the one that reveals the Skins going under in 19 of 23 games on the road versus good defensive teams--allowing less than 285 yards per game since '92. The Eagles have slipped under in 12 of 15 as favorites of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 and in 24 of their last 31 at home in October.



Sun, 10/05/08 - 4:05 PMStephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet422 DEN / 421 TAM Over 48.0 BetUS
Analysis:
Buccaneers-Broncos Over 48

Analysis: The Denver Broncos have gone 'over' in all four of their matchups this season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos can't stop anybody, allowing an average of 34.3 points in their last three games, while averaging nearly 34 points.

The Broncos have one of the worst defensive fronts in the NFL. Their linebackers are below average, too. In addition, cornerback Dre Bly has slowed up considerably. Tampa Bay can attack this. The Buccaneers don't have great skill position players, but they have a very sharp offensive-minded coach in Jon Gruden. He'll have veteran Brian Griese probe Denver's many weak spots. Earnest Graham is an underrated running back and veteran Warrick Dunn can be effective, too, versus this defense. The Buccaneers have gone 'over' in eight of their last 10 games.

Tampa Bay's defense is good, but small. It's not a dominant unit. Jay Cutler certainly can pass on the Buccaneers. Brandon Marshall may be the best wide receiver in the AFC right now. Denver has gone 'over' in 14 of its past 17 home games. The Broncos also have gone 'over' 81 percent of the time during their last 27 games on grass. The Broncos also are 11-1 to the 'over' following a loss.

[TheFade]

Sun, 10/05/08 - 8:15 PMJeff Bonds | NFL Side
double-dime bet430 JAC -4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 429 PIT
Analysis:
Jacksonville Jaguars -4 at Bookmaker.com



This game is an absolute gift at this price - considering that Jacksonville has been pretty much the only NFL team to enjoy success against Pittsburgh over the past 10 years.



It's even more of a gift considering that Pittsburgh is coming off TWO highly physical games in back-to-back weeks (Philadelphia/Baltimore)....so physical - that both of its top running backs are banged up (one for the year).



This means Ben Roethlisberger is going to have to throw behind an offensive line that - to put it lightly - doesn't have a prayer this Sunday with the recent injury to guard Kendall Simmons.



When Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has to throw the ball more than 20 times a game - the Steelers are a terrible 1-7 ATS in the last eight situations.



Jacksonville picks up a BIG VICTORY to keep them from going under .500 (a huge factor in the NFL) and moves the Pittsburgh Steelers to 0-15 ATS in their last 15 road defeats. They've failed to cover the previous 14 by more than 11 points!



Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet414 PHI -6.0 (-110) BetUS vs 413 WAS
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come

Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet410 MIA 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 409 SDC
Analysis:
**2 UNIT PLAY** This line is at +7 at Bodog so I would advise you to get it while you can. Analysis to come.



Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet405 IND -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 406 HOU
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come



Pointwise Phone Plays

2*
Philadelphia
Minnesota



Asa 5*

Arizona Cards



Al Demarco 25 Dimer
Denver Broncos -3

[TheFade]

MEL'S NFL PICKS

CHICAGO -3.5 over Detroit
For the first time this season I've seen a line I can't make sense of. Detroit's three games, all losses, have been against a soft schedule and they haven't lost by less than 13 points, and haven't come any closer than 13 of covering the spread. The Lions are off an early bye week which usually doesn't help teams that get off to a bad start. They did play competitive football in their one home game against Green Bay, but blew a fourth quarter lead. Detroit's defense has been a disaster, allowing 5.6 yards per rush and an opponent's QB rating of 118. Amazingly, those three games were all against first year starting QB's. If the Lions are going to routinely have their opponent's QB put up Hall Of Fame numbers they have zero chance. Take Chicago at whatever the going price is. I put an extra unit on this one.

CAROLINA -9.5 over Kansas City
KC had lost 12 games in a row until last week's home win over Denver. They've lost 6 straight road games, and their most recent road loss was 14-38 at Atlanta. Last week Carolina beat that same Atlanta team 24-9. The Chiefs passing game was weak last year, but has dropped to 31st in my numbers this year, and that's been against a soft schedule. Carolina has the best pass defense KC will have faced. The Panthers have played a tough schedule, put up solid passing numbers against four good pass defenses, and should do well against a KC pass defense that has been below average. KC has also been weak against the run, giving up 5.3 per attempt. Carolina has played well in their two home wins and should take this by double digits.

SAN FRANCISCO +3 over New England
New England had feasted on NFC teams, winning 12 straight prior to their Super Bowl loss. This week they make one of their rare West Coast appearances. Although the Pats are 2-1, their numbers don't look like the same team that won all 16 regular season games in '07. The Pats scored 34 points or more 11 times last year. This year they have scored, 17, 19 and 13, in games against, KC, NY Jets and Miami. Diminished offense should be expected with Tom Brady out for the season, but their defensive numbers have fallen off as well. Last year my numbers had them allowing an opponent's QB rating of 62; so far this year it's 92. In fact, the Patriots defensive unit may be showing signs of age. Like New England, SF has faced a below average schedule thus far. Their defense is solid again this year, and their offense has improved under Mike Martz. J.T. O'Sullivan has put up better numbers than Alex Smith ever did. He has taken too many sacks as a result of holding on to the ball too long, but he has made plays. SF has been a weak red zone team over the years, and this year's Niners have yet to show they can finish drives, but I'll take them as a work in progress here. I don't think the Pats will stop Frank Gore, and I don't think Belichick will hatch a scheme that will be effective against O'Sullivan. The fear factor is gone for the Patriots. Last year they scored more than 4 TD's from scrimmage per game; this year only 4 TD's in three games. The 49ers have the home field and the better QB, while NE has the experience. The Niners are averaging 7 points a game more than the Pats, and are the pick here. I'm giving out the play at +3, but this could move to +3.5 closer to game time.




MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

NFL

5* BEST BET
New England over San Fran by 15
Roll the clock back to the first week of the season and our best guess is
the line on this game would have seen the Patriots installed as doubledigit
favorites. Today, with Tom Brady on the sidelines and the Niners a
.500 squad, two touchdowns has become a fi eld goal and suddenly this
game becomes attractive. With that we hurry off to our Bill Belichick
databank and fi nd numbers that support our contention. For openers,
Mr. Personality is 22-9 ATS in his NFL head coaching career on the road in
games off a loss, including 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine and 7-0 ATS as a
favorite of less than 7 points. To top it off he’s squared off against teams
from the NFC West Division 13 times and – you guessed it – he’s 13-0 ATS
in those games. Toss in Frisco’s 1-10 ATS mark as a dog off a non-division
game when facing an AFC opponent and you can see why we’re taking a
patriotic approach to this game.


4* BEST BET

Philadelphia over Washington by 16

Life has been pretty much black and white at home (2-0 SU and ATS) and
on the road (0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS) for the Eagles in 2008. More important,
from a handicapping perspective, the Green Birds have been perfect, 4-
0, In The Stats this season. They will apply that notion against a fat-andhappy
bunch of Hogs, fresh off last Sunday’s underdog win as doubledigit
dogs at Dallas. That fi ts like a Michael Jackson glove given the fact
the Skins are 0-5-1 ATS on the road off a Cowboy win while Philly is
10-3-1 ATS in division games off an ATS loss of 7 or more points behind
Andy Reid. Andy is also dandy in games off a SU favorite loss, going 17-8
SU and ATS. Just like Los Lobos, he sees a red door and wants to paint
it black

3* BEST BET

Detroit over Chicago by 7

It’s been said that the best sex a man can have is right after his favorite
football team wins a game. If that’s the case then the Motor City’s been
celibate this season. With Matt Millen no longer guarding the condoms
this may actually be a breakout game for the Lions. It happens much
more often than not to winless teams after a Bye Week. The fact of the
matter is 0-3 or worse division dogs playing with an extra wink are 7-7 SU
and 11-1-1 ATS. Additionally, the Lions are 7-5 SU and 12-0 ATS as division
home dogs against an opponent that allowed 20 or more points in its last
contest. With Lovie Smith 1-8-1 ATS in games off a win against a foe off
back-to-back losses, it’s time to break out the Trojans. The Lions and the
men from Motown are looking to make a score today!



STAT FOX / THE PLATINUM SHEET - NFL



10/5/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO at (410) MIAMI
San Diego was sleep walking for three quarters of Sunday’s game
versus Oakland but still managed to turn it on enough to cover a twoscore
pointspread. This team has the type of talent to “flip the switch”.
Hopefully this time around it won’t be a matter of waiting till the point
of urgency, since there’s no reason they shouldn’t walk away with a
comfortable win at Miami, especially since they were finally able to
get their primary weapons, Tomlinson and Gates, going on offense
late in Oakland. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers have been a team
that has been tough to stop once they get started: Turner is 8-1 ATS
(+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of SAN
DIEGO. The average score was SAN DIEGO 26.2, OPPONENT 16.3
- (Rating = 1*). They are also a healthy 15-3 ATS in their L18 AFC
games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are off their bye week and could
be still hung over from the upset of New
England. This game could be a painful
wake up call.
Play: San Diego -6.5




10/5/2008 (413) WASHINGTON at (414)
PHILADELPHIA
As strange as it sounds, Washington
will have wrapped up its road divisional
schedule for 2008 after this game. It is their
second straight contest on the road versus
a NFC East foe, following up the upset
of Dallas last Sunday. It figures to be too
much to ask for them to pull off yet another
stunner here against a Philadelphia team
that is too good on both sides of the ball
to slip to 2-3. In fact, the Eagles could
find themselves in trouble as far as the
playoffs are concerned if they were to
lose here. I just don’t see that happening.
They have been dominant defensively so
far, especially at home, where they have
yielded just 9 points and 346 yards in two
games. Meanwhile, Washington’s offense
has turned it around in its last three games
after the ugly start at New York. However, those offensive breakout
performances were against teams far less capable defensively than
Philly. With RB Brian Westbrook toughing it out this week, look for HC
Andy Reid’s team to bounce back with a convincing win.
Play: Philadelphia -4.5

[TheFade]

10/5/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY at (422) DENVER
Prior to Denver’s loss at Kansas City, what do you suppose the line
in this game would have been? My guess is it would have been
something similar or higher than that of the Broncos-Saints game
two weeks ago, or about -5. Let’s face it, the Broncos put on a poor
performance at K.C. but that was a divisional road game with a
double-digit pointspread. There aren’t too many times where NFL
teams cover as chalk in that scenario. It’s simply a difficult situation.
Now, hosting an unfamiliar non-conference foe who hasn’t played in
your stadium since ’99, now that’s a different story. Tampa’s defense
has been bad in five straight road games dating back to last year.
Denver should enjoy another big day offensively. The Broncos are
also due for some luck in the turnover category: Play On - Favorites
vs. the money line (DENVER) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing
1 or less turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games where they
forced 1 or less turnovers. (26-2 over the last 10 seasons.) (92.9%,
+23 units. Rating = 3*). This seems to be too much of an overreaction
to last week’s results. Take Denver.
Play: Denver -3



10/5/2008 (425) BUFFALO at (426) ARIZONA
Just as I believe that Denver was in a tough spot last week, so was
Arizona, having to play two straight games
across the country on the east coast.
Fatigue was certainly a factor for HC
Ken Whisenhunt’s team, especially on
defense. Fortunately, the Cardinals are
back at home this Sunday, where they are
7-2 under “the Whis”. They’ve also fared
well against the AFC in is tenure, going 5-1
ATS. Buffalo has put together a 4-0 start
but has yet to beat anyone who is sure to
be a playoff team in ’08. This is probably
the Bills’ toughest task to date, since
ARIZONA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when
playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.
> 75%) since 1992. Backed by this nice
StatFox Money Line Super Situation, take
the hosts: Play On - Home favorites vs. the
money line (ARIZONA) - good offensive
team - scoring 24 or more points/game,
after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more
last game. (30-2 over the last 10 seasons.)
(93.8%, +26.8 units. Rating = 4*)
Play: Arizona -2


10/6/2008 (431) MINNESOTA at (432) NEW ORLEANS
Although the results haven’t shown in the point totals that the Vikings
have given up in the first four games, Minnesota is still a very tough
team defensively. In this Monday night game at New Orleans, HC
Brad Childress’ team will enjoy a tremendous statistical edge on
defense. The most convincing numbers to look at are in yards per play
allowed. So far in four games, the Vikings are yielding just 4.9 YPP,
while the Saints have been gashed for 6.2 YPP. For those betting
Minnesota here, you also get the benefit of being a 3-point underdog,
possibly more with a hook if you can score it. The Vikings have faced
a killer schedule thus far and are probably better than the 1-3 record
indicates. Look for them to lean on Adrian Peterson extensively in this
game, giving them a great shot at the road upset.
Play: Minnesota +3







TOP NFL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (405) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (406) HOUSTON
Play Against - Favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by
40+ YPG, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. (34-7 since 1983.) (82.9%, +26.3 units. Rating=4*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (2-0). L5 Seasons: (7-0). L10 Seasons: (15-2).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (425) BUFFALO vs. (426) ARIZONA
Play Over - Home teams against the total (ARIZONA) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an
average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. (31-7 over the last 10
seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (1-0). L3 Seasons: (10-2). L5 Seasons: (17-3). Since 1983: (61-44).


MULTIPLE TEAMS
Play On - Favorites (DALLAS, DENVER) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. (41-14 over
the last 10 seasons.) (74.5%, +25.6 units. Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (5-1). L5 Seasons: (21-7). Since 1983: (78-45).



TOP NFL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
DENVER is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The
average score was DENVER 21.1, OPPONENT 31.5 - (Rating = 5*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
DENVER is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The average score
was DENVER 22.6, OPPONENT 29.1 - (Rating = 5*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO vs. (410) MIAMI
Norv Turner is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. as the coach of SAN
DIEGO. The average score was Turner 27.1, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 4*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (423) NEW ENGLAND vs. (424) SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ENGLAND
37.1, OPPONENT 13.4 - (Rating = 4*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (429) PITTSBURGH vs. (430) JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was
JACKSONVILLE 30.7, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 4*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (415) CHICAGO vs. (416) DETROIT
Rod Marinelli is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of DETROIT. The
average score was Marinelli 18, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 3*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
Mike Shanahan is 98-66 OVER (+25.4 Units) as a favorite as the coach of DENVER. The average score was Shanahan
26, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 2*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (419) SEATTLE vs. (420) NY GIANTS
Mike Holmgren is 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) in October games as the coach of SEATTLE. The average score was Holmgren
20.1, OPPONENT 24 - (Rating = 4*).



Sunday, 10/05/2008 (425) BUFFALO vs. (426) ARIZONA
Dick Jauron is 37-16 UNDER (+19.4 Units) off 1 or more straight overs in all games he has coached since 1992. The
average score was Jauron 15.4, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 2*).




TOP NFL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (415) CHICAGO vs. (416) DETROIT
The UNDERDOG is 10-8 SU & 14-3 ATS in L19 games of CHICAGO-DETROIT series.


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (407) TENNESSEE vs. (408) BALTIMORE
The UNDERDOG is 8-6 SU & 12-2 ATS in TENNESSEE-BALTIMORE series since ‘97.


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (429) PITTSBURGH vs. (430) JACKSONVILLE
The HOME TEAM is 15-5 ATS in PITTSBURGH-JACKSONVILLE series since ‘95.


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (413) WASHINGTON vs. (414) PHILADELPHIA
The UNDER is 20-11 in the PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON series since 1992.


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO vs. (410) MIAMI
The UNDER is 7-0 in the L7 games between MIAMI & SAN DIEGO

[TheFade]

NFL

THE SPORTS REPORTER - NFL


BEST BET
ATLANTA over *GREEN BAY by 4
The Packers are enduring a tough time right now as AJ Hawk is dealing with a groin
injury and Al Harris is done for several weeks, if not the season, with a busted spleen. On
offense, new quarterback Aaron Rodgers is dealing with nagging injuries to his back and
shoulder, including a potentially dislocated throwing shoulder. There is a good chance
that Rodgers will be either hampered for this game, or miss it, which would test the
chemistry of an offense that was on the verge of truly coming together with Ryan Grant
healing up and the Rodgers-to-Greg Jennings combo becoming an every week threat.
Now the young, but feisty, Falcons travel to Lambeau Field with the chance to steal a
game on the road against one of the “better” teams in the conference that we’ve felt was
kind of fake all along anyway. Green Bay’s run defense has been horrendous, allowing
over 150 yards per game on the ground. The Atlanta game-plan should be centered
around exploiting that weakness. Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood form a potent
combination of power running and speed at the edges that will be instrumental in attacking
a weak Packers defensive front seven and easing the pressure of rookie franchise
quarterback, Matt Ryan. If the running game can force the Packers to play close to the
line of scrimmage, Ryan has the poise to find Roddy White as his big-play threat among
a group of back-up Green Bay corners. The Packers had everything go right for them last
season and even in the first two games of ’08. But the NFL has a way of leveling things
off and setting up “good” teams to be exploited. ATLANTA 20-16.





BEST BET
TAMPA BAY over *DENVER by 7
Layin’ points with that Denver defense, which hasn’t made a key stop since Hector was
a pup? Good luck to ya. Bucs’ head coach Jon Gruden hasn’t prioritized non-conference
road games and is 1-7 ATS in them since 2004, for anyone ATS logging at home. But
that’s part of the smokescreen for this particular match-up. Sure, the Bucs have NFC
South foe Carolina on deck. But the Panthers are hosting the Chiefs this Sunday, which
makes Carolina a good bet to be 4-1 when this game kicks off. With the New York Giants,
Dallas and Washington also 3-1, playoff spots might start to dry up early if teams with
winning records do not keep winning. Mike Shanahan is on the other sideline, and that
gets Gruden’s attention from when they squared off when Gruden coached the Raiders.
Playing in Denver also gets the attention of Bucs’ starting quarterback Brian Griese, who
was booed out of the place and returns as the Broncos’ defense is trying to stop moving
backwards all the time. The Bucs’ offense was logging more offensive plays per game
than anybody else in the NFL prior to facing Green Bay last Sunday (68), then went out
and logged 71 against the Packers, for 36 minutes of clock time. Denver QB Jay Cutler
is good for a few picks against a Cover-2 defense. Hey, he tossed two into the Chiefs’
Cover-2 last Sunday. TAMPA BAY, 27-20.



BEST BET
*ARIZONA over BUFFALO by 14
The Bills venture to the West Coast in a second consecutive non-conference road game
vs. an NFC West opponent. The Bills are already playing their third non-conference game
through five weeks and while they didn’t encounter much resistance while throttling
Seattle and St. Louis, perspective must be maintained. After all, the opening week
Seahawks had a rotating cast of no-names playing wide receiver and the Rams have
played like the worst team in the NFL. The wins were a big boost to an emerging franchise,
but Arizona, despite their own meltdown against Gang Green, are a better team
than their two divisional competitors. With the Bills riding high after starting the season
4-0 and Arizona looking weak after dropping two straight road losses, now is the time
for the smart investor to buy low and bet against the hype. The Bills will be traveling close
to 6,000 miles in the two weeks preceding this game and will be dealing with a knee
injury to their best cornerback, Terrence McGee. Arizona may or may not have Anquan
Boldin, after he suffered an ugly helmet-to-helmet hit against the Jets, but Larry
Fitzgerald will prove to be a complete mismatch against whichever cornerback lines up
against him – Ashton Youboty or Leodis McKelvin. Look for the home team to be rejuvenated
and regain some measure of pride after two desultory efforts. ARIZONA 28-14.



RECOMMENDED
*NY GIANTS over SEATTLE by 15
Seahawks’ head coach Mike Holmgren is a well-known schedule and standings cheat.
When it is imperative for Seattle to play, they play as well as they can play. When it isn’t
imperative for them to play as well as they can play, they play worse than their best and
point to the prioritized affairs. Holmgren’s team is 1-2. With a chance to tie 2-2 Arizona
and 2-2 San Francisco in the NFC West standings, it’s kind of imperative to play, but not
a drop-dead, must-have game because the Seahawks have Green Bay home on deck,
San Francisco and Arizona are loser-laden division rivals who play basically the same
tough schedule as the Seahawks face, and St. Louis barely exists. Giants dangerous
receiving weapon Plaxico Burress has been suspended for this game, and we ain’t fallin’
into the trap of expecting the Giants to fall apart just because the guy who caught the
Super Bowl-winning TD pass won’t be on the field. The Seahawks would need more than
the bye week preceding this to figure out how to protect Matt Hasselbeck from getting
torn in pieces by the Giants’ defense. If they are getting their best receivers like Engram
and Branch back after the bye after they’ve been injured and out so far, all the more reason
for the passing game to still be rusty and the offense prone to being pressured and
picked. The Seahawks’ offense isn’t gonna see the ball much anyway, unless their overrated
defense takes it away from Giants’ RB Brandon Jacobs. NY GIANTS, 28-13.




SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5
INDIANAPOLIS over *HOUSTON by 2
Peyton Manning and the Colts have to hope that the bye week fixed what ails them because
after this week’s tilt with the Houston Texans, the schedule becomes considerably more difficult.
A home game against Baltimore is followed by consecutive road games against the
Packers and Titans, with games against the Patriots and Steelers lying in wait. If the Colts
can’t get their line issues straightened out, this could be a very bumpy season. Jeff
Saturday’s return should give the offensive line some kind of consistency with the running
game improving in turn. Too often, the Colts have given Joseph Addai no room to run, putting
more pressure on a rusty Manning to carry the offense. More recovery time for an injured
offensive line can only make the Indy offense more consistent. However, the run defense
remains suspect due to a thin defensive line and Bob Sanders once again being out with
injury. New Houston tailback Steve Slaton, with his running and receiving skills, will be
expected to put up a big game in this home outing – the Texans will need it if they hope to
stay in this one. The Colts have handled the Texans pretty well over the years and the added
benefit of having the bye week should ensure that Indy wins their second game and returns
to .500 – an accomplishment that travels further and further out of sight for Houston as they
keep falling on their face against divisional opponents. INDIANAPOLIS 27-25.



TENNESSEE over *BALTIMORE by 6
Titans’ dominant d-lineman Albert Haynesworth and his buddies might munch on a Flacco
Joe sandwich for Sunday brunch here. As stated several times, Baltimore, against a good
defense, does not stand out as a profitable prospect vs. the spread. But they have their own
good defense and they might force Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins to do bad things, as
many as Flacco Joe will do if the Ravens – off one of their two annual auto-grudge matches
vs. Pittsburgh on Monday Night -- cannot dent the Titans on the ground. When Collins sees
the Ravens’ helmets and colors, and Ray Lewis across from him at the line of scrimmage,
he will have flashbacks and day sweats about the 2000 Super Bowl, when Baltimore’s
defense did everything but yank his pants down and spank him in front of millions. A huge
game from Collins is highly unlikely, but the Titans are becoming Baltimore, Jr., winning
through intimidation and depth on the defensive front seven, which makes business easier
for the secondary. Both defenses are allowing low rushing yardage per game. When offenses
cannot run, they usually cannot pass well either, which makes for a low score unless
defense and/or special teams score points or set up short-drive offensive scores. TENNESSEE,
13-7.