Monday Night Football Service Plays

[TheFade]

WILD BILL

Saints -3 (5 units)



Pointwise:

NFL Key Selections

5--Minnesota (+) over NEW ORLEANS 23-20



THE GOLD SHEET - NFL

MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
*Minnesota 27 - NEW ORLEANS 24—CB Mike McKenzie (int. last week;
torn ACL late LY) now has two games under his belt to help the N.O. defense recover from its early-season injuries. And Saints rediscovered Deuce McAllister (73 YR last week) to take some pressure of Drew Brees (8 TDs, 4 ints.). However, with Gus Frerotte (15 completions to WRs last week; check his left hand injury) now balancing the Viking offense, will count on Adrian Peterson (420 YR) and Minny defense to give Vikes a chance for a Monday night surprise. Minny used to dome conditions. Saints “over” 17 of last 23. CABLE TV—ESPN (05-MINNESOTA -3' 33-16...SR: Minnesota 19-7)



Fairway Jay:
20* Big Drive Minnesota
(Won His 20* Sunday with Miami)



MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty hit with the Cardinals and missed with the Lions and 49ers yesterday.

Today it's the Vikings. The deficit is 160 sirignanos.


HONDO

October 6, 2008

The Brewers were all foam in the dome yesterday, which would have been enough to drive Hondo to drink if he hadn't offset the loss with the Patriots, his Free Money In Frisco Play Of The Day.

Tonight, with the wad holding at 580 abramo wiczes, he expects the Vikings to be drawn and French Quartered in The Big Easy. Ten units.

[TheFade]

Brandon Lang

MONDAY

15 Dime - Saints

FREE - OVER Saints/Vikings





Sixth Sense



they are 21-7 on the season ( 3-3 yesterday)



3% MINNESOTA +3


NEW ORLEANS –3 Minnesota 46.5

The Vikings were beaten pretty handily last week at Tennessee but out gained Tennessee 4.9yppl to 4.0yppl and committed three more turnovers than Tennessee. The Titans scored 24 of their 30 points on short drives of 33 yards or less. NO defeated San Francisco easily last week and out gained the 49ers 7.0yppl to 5.1yppl, including throwing for 10.4yps but allowing SF to rush for 4.8ypr. Minnesota averages 4.9yppl against 4.9yppl and allows 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. The Saints average just 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr but 8.6yps against 6.5yps for a total of 6.5yps against 5.5yps. They allow 5.2ypr against 4.7ypr and 5.9yppl against 5.7yppl overall. The Saints qualify in a home momentum situation if they are favored by three or less, which is 80-34-6. Minnesota qualifies in my turnover table, which is 379-238-18. They also qualify in a game five situation, which is 42-9-3. The Vikings also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 644-521-42, including a subset, which is 516-396-30. NO qualifies in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is 109-46-8 and plays against NO here. Numbers favor NO by six points before accounting for the situations and predict about 44 points. I’ll take a shot with the Vikings. NO throws the ball well and, although Minnesota’s numbers are above average against the pass, they tend to struggle against the pass but I’m looking for their running game to control the game enough. The Vikings should be able to move the ball on the ground against a porous Saints defense. MINNESOTA 24 NEW ORLEANS 20





THE SPORTS REPORTER


MINNESOTA over *NEW ORLEANS by 1
You can buy the 1-3 SU and ATS Vikings cheap, despite the very real fact that they are transitioning
from the one of the best opposing offensive-defensive line combinations
(Tennessee) to one of the weakest. New Orleans’ running game, so-so at best, attempts to
dent a good run defense that did everything it needed to do last week in a loss, and might
get rewarded if they bring it again here. The Vikings will contain the run and they have the
speed on defense – especially at linebacker -- to chase down Bush on those screen and
wideout pass plays. Drew Brees has nightmares about floating balls over the line and into
Cover-2 defenses. The Saints’ ability to stop anything that moves with a purpose (do not
count the San Francisco 49ers’ offense as something that moves with a purpose) is highly
suspect. MINNESOTA, 24-23.




THE GOLD SHEET NEWSLETTER

*Minnesota 27 - NEW ORLEANS 24—CB Mike McKenzie (int. last week;
torn ACL late LY) now has two games under his belt to help the N.O. defense
recover from its early-season injuries. And Saints rediscovered Deuce
McAllister (73 YR last week) to take some pressure of Drew Brees (8 TDs, 4
ints.). However, with Gus Frerotte (15 completions to WRs last week; check his
left hand injury) now balancing the Viking offense, will count on Adrian Peterson
(420 YR) and Minny defense to give Vikes a chance for a Monday night surprise.
Minny used to dome conditions. Saints “over” 17 of last 23. CABLE TV—ESPN
(05-MINNESOTA -3' 33-16...SR: Minnesota 19-7)



KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (1-5)...MINNESOTA



Vikings (+3) over @Saints
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The Vikings entered the season with high hopes,
and you would think that their season is now
teetering on the brink with a 1-3 record. Yet they
still have hope on the season, as they sit only a
game out of the two-way 2-2 tie for first place that
the Packers and Bears find themselves in. With a
loss already to the Packers, things look a bit worse
than that, but things are hardly grim. But things
would likely start to look that way with another loss.
That makes this a must-win for the Purple.
Minnesota comes off a tough loss in Tennessee.
The Vikes defense played terrific ball, holding the
Titans to a mere 4.0 yards per play, while the
offense gained 4.9 yards per play. But when you
turn the ball over four times and allow yourself to be
sacked four times that makes it difficult to get things
done. Those four turnovers turned into 21 points
for the Titans, who scored TD’s on drives of 33, 11,
and 6 yards. And Bernard Berrian dropped a long
pass that would have been a TD. And the offense
committed five penalties in the third quarter, taking
them out of good situations. Some of these
problems were caused by the opponent. The Titans
are one of the few teams in the league that can be
as physical as the Vikings on the line of scrimmage.
But while the Titans are a strong ballclub, a lot of
these wounds were self-inflicted.
One of the reasons that we went against the Saints
last Sunday was their receiver injuries. With the
Niners allowing opponents only 5 yards per pass
attempt heading into the game, we figured that
would be a positive matchup. Alas, the Saints lit up
the Saints secondary for a full 10 yards per pass
attempt. Frisco clearly hadn’t game planned for
Robert Meachem, up until now a draft bust for the
Saints, who in his first start caught five balls for 204
(204!!) yards. A lack of pressure on Drew Brees had
more than a little to do with Meachem’s ability to get
behind the secondary. We expect a better plan from
the Vikings. And while a Saints backup corps that
helped them overcome being without five offensive
starters on Sunday performed admirably, replacements
sometimes let down the following week. So although the
passing game looks to favor the Saints, that may not be
the case here.
Simply think that the more physical Vikes can beat up the
Saints, and expect that their running game will be able to
gash New Orleans, while the defense line proves
impenetrable as well. The weaknesses they showed
against brutal Tennessee won’t exist here. Statistically,
that translates into us taking points with a defense that
allows 4.8 yards per play against a team allowing 5.9 yards
per play, which is a winning play, especially when you
consider the Vikes stats have been earned against a tough
schedule of nothing but playoff contenders. Vikes by 3.

[TheFade]

Bill Gallo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



YESTERDAY 5-7
LAST WEEK 9~4
FOR THE YEAR 43- 29

SAINTS




DR BOB

NEW ORLEANS (-3.0) 27 Minnesota 23
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-06 - Stats Matchup
Drew Brees is playing at an incredible level, as he’s averaged 8.8 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. It may be tough for Brees to maintain that high level of play, but he should post good numbers against a Vikings’ defense that is once again very good defending the run (3.1 ypr allowed) but every mediocre against the pass (6.2 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense). Minnesota’s offense has been better since Gus Frerotte was inserted at quarterback in week 3, as the Vikings have averaged 5.0 yards per play the last two games against good defensive teams Carolina and Tennessee, who would combine to allow just 4.6 yppl to an average team. I expect Adrian Peterson to have a big game running against a soft Saints’ defensive front that’s allowed 5.4 ypr this season (to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defensive team). New Orleans has been average in pass defense, but Frerotte has been better than average in his two games, throwing for 5.8 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback. My math model favors New Orleans by 6 points and the Saints apply to a very good 61-21-2 ATS Monday night situation. Minnesota, however, applies to a 55-16-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator and a 56-16-5 ATS game 5 angle. Tough call here, but I’ll lean slightly with New Orleans.




CKO

OVER (47) in the Minnesota-New Orleans game—Prolific N.O., which is scoring 28 ppg & yielding
5.2 ypc, is “over” 3-0-1 TY and 16-6-1 last 23 since late ’06. Minny “over” in both road games this year, and Adrian Peterson should have some fun.




STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (10-14)



10/6/2008 (431) MINNESOTA at (432) NEW ORLEANS
Although the results haven’t shown in the point totals that the Vikings
have given up in the first four games, Minnesota is still a very tough
team defensively. In this Monday night game at New Orleans, HC
Brad Childress’ team will enjoy a tremendous statistical edge on
defense. The most convincing numbers to look at are in yards per play
allowed. So far in four games, the Vikings are yielding just 4.9 YPP,
while the Saints have been gashed for 6.2 YPP. For those betting
Minnesota here, you also get the benefit of being a 3-point underdog,
possibly more with a hook if you can score it. The Vikings have faced
a killer schedule thus far and are probably better than the 1-3 record
indicates. Look for them to lean on Adrian Peterson extensively in this
game, giving them a great shot at the road upset.
Play: Minnesota +3





THE RED SHEET

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87) Minnesota




DCI

Monday, October 6, 2008
NEW ORLEANS 24, Minnesota 23





Vegas Vics pics:


Vikings (+3) over SAINTS (ESPN)

Minnesota's ground game is as healthy as ever, with Adrian Peterson gobbling up 420 yards, second best in the NFL. Now it's just a matter of getting Gus Frerotte a few more reps. Actually, Frerotte was pretty solid in his first start for the Vikes, completing 25 of 43 for 266 yards, and if they can cut down on the turnovers (four Sunday), the Purple People should be able to squeeze out a W in the Superdome.




Lance's Lock


Overall record: 674-568-24

Current streak: 1 win

Todays play: The Vikings +3' bought





Cappers Access

Saints

[www.CTSportsPicks.com]

who would think it the last week has been crazy. Cubs swept, LAA about to lose again, Manny might play BOS?? NFL and NCAA football has been full of upsets. Got to love this time of year get your free picks

[www.CTSportsPicks.com]

by the way like the over 46.5 tonight!!

[TheFade]

Vegas Hotsheet

Minn. + 3.5





WSP Smooth 44



NFL
NEW ORLEANS -3 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
NEW ORLEANS OVER 46 -120
I am usually a fan of the dog but tonight I'm going to lay the small number with the Monday night home team. The Saints catch the Vikings in the 2nd game of a B2B road swing and I love going against certain teams in this spot. Additionally, the Saints are coming off a SU/ATS win at home last week and teams in this spot have historically done well going a PERFECT 17-0 SU and ATS since 1990 as a home fave of 3 points or less, winning SU by an average of 14 pts/gm!! When the home team is coming off a SU/ATS home win last week and has another home game on deck those teams are a PERFECT 11-0 SU and ATS since 1990 and won SU by an average of 15 pts/gm. Furthermore, certain MNF non-division home teams are a PERFECT 21-0 SU and ATS since 1983 when they are facing an opponent who is coming off a SU loss of 7 or more points and curshed their opponents by an average of 18 pts/gm and only 3 times did the home team fail to win by more than double digits!! Meanwhile, certain non-division road teams are a PERFECT 0-25 SU and ATS when coming off a SU road loss and playing an opponent off a SU win and those teams lost by an average of more than 14 pts/gm!! If history holds true the Saints should win by 2 TDs or more!! I AM TAKING NEW ORLEANS AS MY PLAY OF THE DAY!!




ER Sports Playmaker:

Vikings




NSA

20- minn +3




Johnny Guild

NFL Selections
Monday, October 6th, 2008

Minnesota Vikings (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-2)
Louisiana Superdome - New Orleans, Louisiana
Home Record: Minnesota 1-1; New Orleans 2-0
Road Record: Minnesota 0-2; New Orleans 0-2
All-Time Series: Minnesota (19-7 -- 2-0 in playoffs)
Last Meeting: 09/25/05 (Minnesota, 33-16 at Minnesota)

New Orleans has home advantage in a Monday night clash, but hasn’t been lucrative with a record of 1-7 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread in Monday night games. However, the Saints offense led by quarterback Drew Brees, who is presently the league's top quarterback, should be able to score easily against the Vikings miserable defense. I do believe this will be a close battle and New Orleans will have their hands full stopping running back Adrian Peterson. But, without any hesitation I will back the Saints with Drew Brees then the Vikings’ with Gus Frerotte at the helm. In all probability, Brees and his crew will put on a show tonight in the Superdome. This is definitely not a smart contest to lay a wager, but its Monday night Football. Go easy!

New Orleans Saints



Indian Cowboy

I am passing on the Card Today, but I do have my Research Posted for Both ballgames today. Hopefully you find it useful and it helps you make better wagers. gl.

Vikings vs. New Orleans

Any time there is 70% + of the public on a team, it is reason to be wary. But, Vegas is not getting off this line. So, the question begs, why is this line so low? Well, one reason could be that Colston is still out. The other reason is that Ferrotte is now listed for probable for this game and given his presences, this Vikings team is solid. Remember, the line opened up at 46 and the total has gone up and the line opened up at -4 for the Saints and has actually come down. In fact, in some off-shore books, the line opened up at 45.5 and has gone up. Of course, the line could have gone up because over 65% of the public is on the over as well. So, the biggest burial would happen in this game if the game goes under and the Vikings. The Vikings come off a tough loss on the road to the Titans and they look to bounce-back here. Let's just put it this way, I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go for the Vikings with Ferrotte - with Tavaris Jackson, it will go the Saints. But, I like the Ferrotte a decent amount and remember the Titans are solid so that loss shouldn't look as bad as the score displays for the Vikings. As per me, no lean one way or the other, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Vikings win here. I'm just staying away from the massive public favorite. Although, typically such a short line does indicate that a over is likely to take place.




Vegas Informer

*** Free Monday Trend Play ***

Take #432 New Orleans -3 1/2 over Minnesota. (NFL)

Minnesota has been horrible against the spread and in their last 7 games the Vikings have covered only one game. The favorite in this series is 4-1 ATS and lately New Orleans have played good ball on the Monday Night stage.