Week 6 Service Plays

[TheFade]

This is the 25th season of our System Section & it has been a consistent winner. Each week we
release a super system which pertains to that week's games. Here is an NFL Week 6 System:

Play on a winless 0-4 or worse team that is a dog after its bye.
1991-2007: 17-2 89%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY: ST LOUIS




KEY SELECTIONS

4* HOUSTON over Miami - This is 3rd year in a row these teams will square off & the dog has covered
the L/2. HOU beat MIA 22-19 LY but failed to cover as a 5 pt HF. MIA lost QB Green to a knee to the
head as he tried to block on a WR end around & they were inspired to a 16-7 lead before HOU hit a
54 yd FG at the half. HOU got past MIA’s emotion with three 50+ yd FG’s including a 57 yarder to win
as they had a 352-285 yd edge. MIA is 5-2-1 ATS away vs an AFC foe. HOU is 5-2 ATS as a HF. MIA
was in a solid situation LW off a bye catching a SD team in their 3rd road game in 4 weeks going cross
country. MIA rolled out the Wildcat offense again (10 direct snaps 48 yds 1 TD) & RB Brown had another
good game with 125 yds rushing (5.2). MIA’s #8 defense was the key though as they held Tomlinson to
35 yds rushing (2.9) and kept Rivers off balance with 159 yds passing (46%) with a 1-0 ratio. MIA held
SD to just 3 of 12 on 3rd Dns with a spec tms fumble in the 3Q getting SD back into the game. HOU
started Rosenfels LW as Schaub (stomach virus) was pulled at the last minute. HOU exploited IND’s
weakness on the DL with 32 rush att’s (4.9) keeping Manning off the field & minus Addai’s 153 yd run
held IND to 64 yds (3.0). MIA now has to go on the road vs a HOU team that outplayed IND LW & while
the Dolphins are better than LY we’ll side with a home team that is angry & deserving of a win.
FORECAST: HOUSTON 28 Miami 13



3*SEATTLE over Green Bay - Including the playoffs, this is the 4th game in as many years with the
home team going 3-0 SU & ATS winning by a 33-20 margin. LY in the div playoffs SEA jumped out to a
14-0 lead after a pair of RB Grant fumbles. GB then outscored SEA 28-3 thru the rest of the 1H & went
66 yds in 6 plays in the 3Q to make it 35-17. SEA hit a 27 yd FG & GB had a 1 yd TD run as Grant rushed
for 201 yds (7.4) after his 2 fumbles. SEA was in a poor spot LW as they were off a bye & playing in the
EST where they always struggle. SEA was hoping the return of WR’s Branch & Engram would spark
the offense but they were outFD 21-10 & outgained 431-147 when they pulled Hasselbeck after going
down 37-6 late in the 3Q. SEA was quickly taken out of its gameplan & RB Jones who rushed for 134
ypg (5.6) vs SF & STL was reduced to a pass blocker. GB’s defensive injuries caught up to them LW
as they lost #1 DT ******* to IR, LB Hawk (groin) was ineffective & they were playing their #3 SS in a
beat up secondary. Rodgers had a good game overall (313 yds 68% 3-1) but he was clearly in pain &
now faces a SEA defense that is known for excessive blitzes. SEA is better than LW’s results & look for
them to go to the ground vs a GB team that, minus the DET game is allowing 190 ypg rushing (5.2).
FORECAST: SEATTLE 31 Green Bay 20



OTHER SELECTIONS

2* St Louis (+) over WASHINGTON - This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years & the fav is 2-0 ATS. The
technical matchups all side with WAS here as STL is 5-13-1 ATS as an AD, 12-25-1 ATS on grass &
are on an 0-7 ATS streak vs a WAS team on a 7-1 ATS run. STL has the #30 & #31 units (-3 TO’s) vs
WAS #6 & #13 units (+5 TO’s). STL improved the morale significantly by dumping Linehan over the bye
& replaced him with a discipline oriented defensive coach in former NO HC Jim Haslett. Haslett’s 1st
act was to reinstate Bulger as the starting QB & tighten up the intensity in practices. He also directed
OC Saunders to trim the 700 page playbook & feature RB Jackson (110 yds 4.6 vs BUF) & WR Holt
(15 rec 12.5) with more quick drops to help out an OL that has allowed 13 sacks (25th). LY STL was in
a similar situation being 0-8 after their bye & facing a NO team off 4 straight wins. STL won the game
37-29 as 10’ pt dogs & had a 409-299 yd edge. WAS’s defense rallied together LW as they missed 4
def starters & minus the 1Q outgained PHI 365-133. WAS is off 2 upset win vs DAL & PHI & are now
hearing about how they are an elite team in the NFC. STL is better than their record & desperate team
needing a win & getting generous points so we’ll side with them as the Ugly Dog which is now 20-9
(69%). FORECAST: St Louis 27 (+) WASHINGTON 31



2* ARIZONA (+) over Dallas - Jerry Jones takes this southwestern rival seriously as DAL is 3-1 SU
& 4-0 ATS vs ARZ since they left the NFC East. DAL is on a 2-7 ATS run. ARZ is 7-3 ATS at home. This
game features DAL #4 & #14 units (-4 TO’s) vs ARZ #5 & #12 units (+1 TO’s). ARZ doesn’t expect WR
Boldin (sinus fracture) to return until after the bye week. ARZ rebounded from their embarrassing road
loss to NYJ by stopping BUF cold with a 41-17 win. They KO’d QB Edwards (concussion) and then kept
an unprepared Losman off balance all day as they converted 4 TO’s into 17 pts. ARZ was in complete
control all day as they had 28-13 FD & 12:22 TOP edges holding RB Lynch to 55 yds (4.2) rushing. DAL
struggled to put CIN away & were a failed 2 pt conversion by CIN from being tied late in the 4Q. Romo
only had 176 yds passing (61%) with a 3-1 ratio but they rediscovered their run game with a 198 (5.2) to
61 (2.7) rush edge. Despite a roster “stocked with Pro Bowlers” the Cowboys really haven’t displayed a
killer instinct this year. They historically had a home edge with a solid fan following but ARZ’s new stadium
& recent success has taken that away. Although the loss of Boldin is a significant blow the defense has
picked up the slack. Look for Safeties Wilson & Rolle to help shut down the intermediate passing game
& provide run support in a higher scoring game. FORECAST: ARIZONA 28 (+) Dallas 27






OTHER GAMES

NEW ORLEANS 30 Oakland 20 - NO is off LW’s MNF game vs MIN & lost 1st RD DC Ellis for 4 wks
before the game. The Raiders return from their bye week (0-5 ATS) with former Idaho HC Tom Cable
(11-25 SU & 17-23 ATS) who is an OL coach by trade, taking over as Al Davis’ figurehead. Former ATL
OC Greg Knapp will call the offense & Rob Ryan remains the DC. Interim rookie HC’s are 4-12-1 ATS
in their 1st game S/’89. This will be Russell’s 1st start in a dome where OAK is 0-6 ATS. NO is 2-6 ATS
vs the AFC. Brees is 7-1 ATS vs OAK from his days with SD avg 191 ypg (64%) with a 13-4 ratio & he
gives NO a massive edge here. Brees is the hottest QB in the NFL prior to MNF avg 336 ypg (72%)
with an 8-4 ratio & getting RB Deuce back vs SF gives the offense the power aspect it needed. OAK
should have a healthier McFadden (turf toe) & expect to get Fargas who is their best pass protector
back. NO is vulnerable vs the run (#19) & pass (#29) & are a beat up team overall. Firing Kiffin was a
huge mistake as the roster believed in him & look for NO to jump out to a fast start, take Russell out of
his comfort zone & make him pass though NO will give up some big yards here.


INDIANAPOLIS 17 Baltimore 14 - Including playoffs this is the 5th meeting in as many years & the Colts
are 4-0 SU & ATS. LY IND beat an injury depleted BAL team off an emotional MNF loss to NE 44-20 on
SNF as a 9 pt AF. BAL was without Rolle & McAllister & IND jumped out to a 30-0 lead in the 2Q & was up
44-7 in the 3Q. BAL switched to Troy Smith & IND allowed 13 pts in garbage time. IND had a 334-243 yd
edge & was +5 in TO’s. IND is 1-4 ATS as a HF. BAL is 1-8 SU & ATS on the road. Manning has done well
vs BAL in the reg season avg 259 ypg (67%) with an 8-1 ratio. BAL gets a break here after facing 2 of the
most physical teams in the NFL in PIT & TEN. IND has some very basic Football 101 problems as they only
avg 68 ypg (3.6) running the ball (#32) & are allowing 189 ypg (4.9) (#32) which plays into BAL’s strengths
as they are 4th rushing the ball (154 ypg 3.8) & 1st stopping the run (64 ypg 2.8). BAL played a very good
game vs TEN LW & thru the 1st 3Q had 18-8 FD & 231-67 yd edges before letting a 10-3 lead slip thru their
fingers. IND was very lucky to beat HOU LW as Rosenfels fumbled the ball twice in the final 3:54 which the
Colts converted into 14 pts for the win. BAL is utilizing Flacco similar to how PIT utilized Roethlisberger as
a rookie & with both of IND’s wins coming vs teams that self destructed late in the game we’ll side with an
angry BAL team that is executing the basic fundamentals very well & getting points.

[TheFade]

NY JETS 30 Cincinnati 27 - The Bengals beat the Jets 38-31 LY as a 6.5 pt HF. The Jets blew a 23-10 lead
with 11:15 left in the 3Q as Palmer led the team on 76 & 57 yd TD drives to take a 24-23 lead. CIN then turned
2 TO’s into 14 pts (38-23) & with :32 left they gave up a 32 yd pass (2pt conv). CIN is in a poor spot as this
is the 3rd road game in 4 games & get a Jets team that is 6-0 ATS after a bye. NYJ are 4-0 ATS as a fav of 6
or more. LY after 5 games CIN was being outgained an avg 393-367 losing by an avg of 31-25. TY they are
being outgained 339-239 & are losing by an avg 24-15. They are playing with a talented but wounded QB &
have nothing to offer on the ground being outrushed 171 (4.5) to 78 (3.3) TY.
LY after 4 games the Jets were1-3 being outgained 366-283 & losing by an avg 26-18. TY they have been outgained 341-308 with a 29-29
scoring margin & the yardage is off due to the short fields the team got vs ARZ. LY after 4 starts Favre avg’d
301 ypg (66%) with an 8-2 ratio & 7.1 ypa. TY he’s avg 233 ypg (70%) with a 12-4 ratio & 7.5 ypa & is coming
off one of his career best games. Palmer has done well in his L2 starts vs NYG & DAL & the team played here
just 3 weeks ago but the Jets don’t have the same fan fervor the Giants do. We’ll side with an increasingly
frustrated road team as long as Palmer starts vs the weakest defense (21) he’s played so far.



TAMPA BAY 16 Carolina 13 - CAR is 7-3 ATS vs TB & while they beat TB 31-23 in the season finale LY as
a 3 pt AF the Bucs were resting everyone they could to prepare for their Wildcard game. Both are in positive
technical spots as CAR is 6-0-1 ATS as a div AD &TB is 5-1-1 ATS as a div favorite. CAR is off a pair of easy
wins vs a pair of bottom tier teams as they mauled KC 34-0 & had 17-5 FD & 380-77 yd edges thru the 1st
3Q of the game but AD’s off a shutout win are 5-14-2 ATS since 1998. The stalwarts of the CAR offense
seems to be in gear again as Delhomme (236 yds 64% 2-1 LW) is throwing deep to Steve Smith (6 rec, 16.0)
with RB Williams (123, 6.3) keeping the pass rush honest. The CAR OL was without both starting OT’s LW
& while KC couldn’t exploit that TB will if they don’t return. TB returns from a trip to DEN where QB Griese
was KO’d with a shoulder inj & they went back to Garcia who had fallen out of favor with the coaching staff.
TB is a team that can deliver superior line play on both sides of the ball as minus the CHI game they have
rushed for 157 yds (5.6) with just 7 sacks. The DL gets credit for holding opponents to 100 ypg (3.7) rushing
with 11 sacks. CAR has the momentum off their 2 game home stand & TB is in a bit of a fix as while Garcia
gives them a good chance of winning he doesn’t fit the 2008 TB offense as he freelances too much. We’ll
call this at the line for now & see what CAR’s OL & TB’s injury situations are this week.



MINNESOTA 31 Detroit 17 - MIN is off a potential shootout vs NO & faces a DET team that came out flat
after their bye vs CHI. The fav is 4-1-1 ATS & MIN beat DET 42-10 as a 4 pt HF LY. MIN had a 35-10 lead at
the half & finished with 29-14 FD & 443-254 yd edges & they dominated with a 216 (5.5) - 23 (3.3) rushing
edge on the ground. DET was in a good spot at home LW catching a CHI team on a slightly short week
that was w/o susp DT Harris, its #1WR & the secondary was very beat up also. However, they still have
problems with a slow start as they went 3 & out on 4 of their first 5 drives with a fumble & were outgained
353-94 thru the 1st 3Q. DET has been outrushed 180 (4.4) to 72 (5.0) & the #28 pass defense is worse
than its rankings allowing 253 ypg (68%) with an 8-0 ratio (122.2 QBR) & a whopping 9.4 ypa. While MIN
has its own set of problems at QB they are solid in the trenches outrushing foes 141 (4.7) to 72 (2.9) prior
to MNF. MIN’s high priced DL gets a good matchup vs a DET OL that is 29th allowing 16 sacks. Kitna is
1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS vs MIN & is only avg 256 ypg (66%) with a 4-8 ratio. He was pulled early in the 2H
for Dan Orlovsky & at 0-4 a QB change could be coming. There is no line due to the MNF game but MIN’s
strengths matchup very well vs the DET weaknesses & we’ll call for a 2 TD win by the road team.



Chicago 20 ATLANTA 10 - This is a bit of a flat spot for CHI who are off an SNF game vs IND, a pair
of blown 4Q leads vs CAR & TB, a SNF game vs PHI & a division road game with DET & has a HG vs
MIN on deck. ATL has a bye on deck & is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS before it. CHI is 4-1-1 ATS as a non-div AF.
The Bears mauled a bad DET team LW as they were up 17-0 at the half with a 12-5 FD, 251-67 yd edge
with a 2-1 TOP edge. Orton had a great day passing for 334 yds (71%) with a 2-0 ratio to make up for
a tough game by Forte who only had 36 yds (2.4) on the ground. ATL had a good matchup LW, getting
points vs a beat up GB team with a wounded Rodgers & depleted defense. At the half ATL had 13-5 FD
& 240-123 yd edges and while Ryan had a very good 1H (154 yds 72% 2-0) he only threw 8 pass att’s
in the 2H as ATL tried to grind out the clock. ATL returns home where they have notched a 426-305 yd
edge but that was vs DET’s #32 & KC’s #30 defenses. Versus 2 decent defenses (TB #16 & CAR #4)
ATL has been outgained 356-251 being outscored 24-9 in both games. CHI should get DT Harris & WR
Lloyd (15 rec 16.6) back here & have faced a much tougher schedule & should get the win.



Jacksonville 21 DENVER 20 - This is a tough spot for JAX who are coming off a SNF game vs PIT &
now has to travel from sea level to DEN (17% less oxygen) on a short week. Teams are 6-22 ATS after
facing PIT. DEN remembers their 23-14 loss well as a 3.5 pt HF LY which wasn’t as close as the final
score indicated. JAX opened the game with an 18 play 80 yd drive that took up 11:44. In the 1H JAX had
a 13-4 FD edge & was up 20-7 after converting a muffed KR by DEN to start the 3Q into a FG. DEN was
SOD at the JAX 3, SOD on 4&5 & int’d at the DEN 35 after the 2:00 warning. DEN is 3-12 ATS as a HF
while JAX is 15-5-1 ATS as an AD. JAX OL issues & lack of talent at WR really hampered the offense in
the first 2 games as they were outrushed 107 (3.7) to 66 (3.0). In the L2 games they settled into their new
OL & vs the #24 & #19 defenses they had a 188 (5.1) to 97 (4.6) yd edge. JAX got WR Porter back vs
HOU & C Meester may return here. They now take on DEN’s #30 defense which is allowing 134 ypg (5.2)
rushing. JAX’s offense is slowly taking shape & their defense is better than their #18 ranking. JAX is 2-2
pending SNF & with TEN (5-0) in the division they have to look at this game with Wildcard implications.
DEN is up on the AFC West thanks to 2 bad official’s calls (SD & NO) & with a MNF road game vs NE
on deck this is a flat spot for a young team & we’ll side for the road team here.



Philadelphia 27 SAN FRANCISCO 20 - This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years with the Eagles going 2-0
SU & ATS with an avg score of 40-14 with a 499-273 yd edge. This is the 1st WC game for PHI since
the last meeting vs SF in 2006. PHI is 13-3 ATS on the road after a SU home loss but 2-7 ATS before
a bye under Reid. PHI finds themselves 2-3 & 4th in the NFC East standings after blowing a 14-0 lead
to start the game vs WAS. Westbrook was able start the game but was ineffective with 18 touches (4.7)
due to a chest injury. Thru the final 3Q PHI was outFD 21-5 & outgained 365-121 as WAS ran 75 total
plays vs PHI’s 47. While PHI has struggled in div play they have outFD non-div foes 21-12 & outgained
them 374-201 allowing just 49 ypg (2.5) rushing. NE used a very basic gameplan LW vs SF as they
stuck to the run & wore out the defense with 43 rush att’s (3.3) keeping the defense on the field for
39:52. SF kept it close until the 4Q but NE basically posted a 2-1 edge in FD’s, yards & TOP. PHI has a
great matchup with a defense that is #1 in sacks by (18) vs a SF OL that is #32 in sacks allowed (20).
SF is a much better team that 2007’s version but we’ll side with a road team that has the #9 & #6 units
(+3 TO) that travels very well vs a SF team with the #21 & #22 units (-3 TO’s).



New England at SAN DIEGO - The Patriots are staying at San Jose St instead of enduring a roundtrip
to the East. This is the 5th meeting in 4 years & the road team has covered 3 of 4. SD has legit revenge
here as LY the Patriots beat SD 38-14 in Wk 2 as a 3.5 pt HF on SNF as the Spygate scandal just
started. NE then knocked SD out of the playoffs with a 21-12 win as a 14 pt HF. SD was in very bad
shape as QB Rivers played on a torn ACL, Gates had a dislocated toe & Tomlinson left after 2 snaps
due to a knee sprain in a game played in 9° windchill. The Chargers were caught looking ahead LW &
lost to MIA 17-10 as they only ran 49 offensive plays. NE played to its depth at RB & wore out SF LW
for a 30-21 win. Can SD rebound or will NE overcome the road logistics.



NY Giants at CLEVELAND - This is the 1st MNF game for CLE since Wk 14 of 2003. These teams
met in the 2nd preseason game & the Browns 2008 troubles started there as the Giants blasted QB
Anderson & gave him a concussion. Anderson would miss the rest of preseason & the CLE offense
would suffer as combined with other injuries there was no cohesion. CLE is off a tough win vs CIN &
OC Chudzinski noted during the bye that they would alter the offense to play to the strengths of their
run. The Giants dismantled SEA 44-6 LW in a great spot but their only road game was in STL who lacks
anything resembling the crowd edge CLE brings here




Our Over/Under Section is in its 21st season. Each week we select the Top 5 plays as of Sunday Night
& list them. An * denotes an estimated line. The 3* Totals are 11-4 73%!

Here are this week's plays:
3* Bengals/Jets Over 45'
3* Ravens/Colts Under 39
3* Panthers/Bucs Under 36'
2*Packers/Seahawks Over 47
2* Cowboys/Cardinals Over 48'



PowerSweep

4* Houston 28-13
3* Seattle 31-20
2* St. Louis + 27-31
2* Arizona + 28-27

3* Jets over 45
3* Colts U 39
3* Panthers U36
2* Packers over 47
2* Cowboys over 48

[TheFade]

Pointwise NFL

DALLAS over Arizona RATING: 2
BALTIMORE over Indianapolis RATING: 3
SAN DIEGO over New England RATING: 4
HOUSTON over Miami RATING: 5
SEATTLE over Green Bay RATING: 5

NEW ORLEANS 27 - Oakland 24 - (1:00) -- Raider bye week came at a good
time, as they blew 9-pt & 12-pt 4th quarter leads in their previous 2 games. As
a matter of fact, they were outscored 28-3 by the Bills, in their last outing. So
they've actually been in their past 3 games. The way to go thus far, is with the
visitor in Oakland games, as the guest is 4-0 ATS by 53½ pts. Third straight
HG for the Saints, who are in off Monday Nighter. At least 23 pts in each of
their last 9 games, but also 28.5 ppg in last 6 contests. Raiders 21-12 ATS as
RDs off 2 losses, while Saints are 0-10 ATS Oct HFs vs a foe off SU/ATS loss.

INDIANAPOLIS 20 - Baltimore 19 - (1:00) -- Miracle win & cover for Colts LW,
with 3 TDs in final 4:04 (68-yd fumble return, & TD off fumble). Indy still being
mauled, overland, with RY deficits of 183-53, 180-25, 236-114, & 156-79, so
this can't be that easy, as the Ravens have FD edges of 21-8, 21-11, 16-11, &
22-14 thus far. Two straight 3-pt losses for Balt, after a 45-20 pt edge in its
first 2 games. The visitor is 6-0 both SU & ATS in Colt games lately, & with the
Ravens ranking 3rd in rushing "O", as well as 1st in overall "D", they are worth
a long look. Baltimore is 13-7 ATS off scoring 14 pts or less. Down to the wire.

NEW YORK JETS 26 - Cincinnati 23 - (1:00) -- The man is something. No less
than 6 TD passes for Favre before Jet bye week. That's a career-high for him,
& ties him with Joe Namath for most ever by a Jet. Now 12/4 for the season.
Chance for NY to make a legitimate move with Cincy, Oakland, KC run. But
the Bengals shouldn't go down easily, as they've covered their last 2 RGs by
10½ & 7 pts, altho they do have an 855-385 RY deficit so far. Dog is 12-2 ATS
in Cincy games (10 upsets), & the guest is 7-2 ATS in NY tilts. Jets 1-9 ATS
in Oct vs non-division foes off a pair of losses. Despite Cincy's Dallas-Pitt SW.

TAMPA BAY 20 - Carolina 13 - (1:00) -- As we've written many times, we rarely
stray from the Bucs at home. And this year is no exception, as they've paid off
by 8 & 7½ pts in their 2 hosting opportunities to date. Garcia for Griese (shoulder),
& he was a nice 13-of-17 in that push. Panthers took full advantage of
the anemic Chiefs LW, in 34-0 blowout (441-127 yd edge), which boosts an
"O" which was ranked just 23rd at gametime. Check Williams with 123 RYs &
3 TDs. But Bucs are 9-1 ATS in the 1st of 2 HGs, vs an opponent off a pair of
wins, as well as 24-13 ATS off a loss of 3 pts or less. Tampa, as division host.

MINNESOTA 34 - Detroit 10 - (1:00) -- Yes, we know that the 14-pt opening line
on this one seems juicy, especially with the Vikes coming in off a Monday Night
appointment. But backing the Lions is a quick trip to the poor house. Check
their current 1-11 SU run, as well a their 2-10 ATS slide. They've been stung
for 35.9 ppg in their last 10 outings, & are simply worse by the week. Can't
run, & can't stop the run (720-281 RY deficit), or anything else. Orlovsky for
Kitna LW, but no matter. Minny nothing special (1-6 ATS), but the fav is 4-0 in
Viking games this year, & they are 5-0-1 ATS in this series of late. Poor Lions.

Chicago 24 - ATLANTA 16 - (1:00) -- Bears sit atop the NFC Central, with their
fine early season play. They've been a very profitable play of late (+99 pts ATS
in their last 8 games), with Orton certainly earning his stripes. Threw for 324
yds & 2 TDs vs the inept Lions (no INTs). Couple of ointment flies, of course,
not the least of which is the success of the pup in Bear games of late: 6-1-1
ATS, as well as the fact that the host is 5-1 ATS in Falcon contests. Turner
now at 543 RYs, with Ryan 4/3 for the year. But Falcon "D": 28 ppg last 12.
Atlanta 4-19 ATS hosting winning teams, & 11-24 ATS off a win of 3 pts or less.

HOUSTON 27 - Miami 17 - (1:00) -- Incredible loss for Texans LW, after leading
27-10 with 4:05 left, with 2 Rosenfels (for ailing Schaub) fumbles the culprits.
Two straight for oncoming Dolphs, behind 238 RYs from Brown, with Chad a
brilliant 39-of-49 in those 2 (37½ & 13½ pt covers). And they catch Houston
off 3 division games. But Texans averaging 31 ppg in last 6 hosters, with
Schaub's return ensuring a continuation. Miami is 14-25 ATS off a SU dog
win, while Houston is 17-10 ATS off a loss of <11 pts. Texans also 8-2 ATS off
a division game vs a foe off 2 wins. And Kubiak is 7-1 home vs a foe off a win.

WASHINGTON 36 - St Louis 13 - (1:00) -- Would love to jump on the 15 pt line
posted here, but it makes little sense. Like the aforementioned Lions, you need
only look at the Rams' dismal record, namely a 3-16-1 spread log, while failing
to reach 17 pts on 14 occasions since LY, while allowing 38.4 ppg over their
last 7 outings. For example, they led Buffalo 14-6: lost 31-14. Four straight
wins & covers for the 'Skins, with a 649-273 RY edge in those 4. Portis: 266
RYs last 2 weeks (vs Dallas & Philly, no less), & Campbell a force. Rams are
10-22 ATS away vs winning teams, while 'Skins on 8-2 ATS run. Over early.

DENVER 24 - Jacksonville 19 - (4:05) -- Finally a bit of a defensive showing for
the Broncos, who entered their game with the Bucs, off allowing 38, 32, & 33
pts. But just a single TD by Tampa, altho Denver was outrushed at home for
the 1st time. The Broncos are averaging 31 ppg in their last 6 hosters, & rank
#1 in the NFL in total "O". The 'Ville in off being manhandled by Pitt: 415-213
yd & 28-14 FD deficits, altho the Jags did have the lead entering the final 2
minutes. Last 4 J'Ville games have been decided by 4, 2, 3, & 5 pts, so more
of the same here. Broncos 25-15 ATS at home with line between -3 & +3 pts.

Philadelphia 30 - SAN FRANCISCO 20 - (4:15) -- Call similar score to LW's Pat/
49er contest. Check the overwhelming stat advantage of the Patriots: 25-12
FD, & 377-199 yd edges. O'Sullivan: 3 TDs, but also 3 INTs; Gore: from 212
RYs to just 54. This is 3rd of 6 grinders for SanFran, but the Eagles enter this
one off no less than 4 wars, losing the last 2. And note just a FG over the final
52:47 vs the 'Skins (203-58 RY deficit). Thus, a quick chance for redemption,
as well as a return to the right track. The Niners are 2-8 ATS off scoring >20
pts, & losing, & are 12-21 ATS off a spread loss as a dog. Philly bounceback.

Dallas 31 - ARIZONA 19 - (4:15) -- Matchup of old NFC East squads. Cowboys
a game back of the Giants, along with the 'Skins. Are loaded, talentwise, but
just a 2-8 spread play of late. But a closer look shows the visitor at 5-0 ATS (by
43½ pts) when Dallas takes the field. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys hold a
55-26 pt edge away from their home park thus far. Have the 2nd best "O" in
the NFL, with Romo at 11/5, & Jones in off a 10.7 ypr effort. Cards: 4 takeaways
in 41-17 rout of previously unbeaten Bills, with Warner now at 10/4. Dallas is
28-14 ATS as RFs of <7½ pts. Cards are 4-11 ATS at home off win of 7+ pts.

SEATTLE 33 - Green Bay 23 - (4:15) -- Now or never for the Seahawks, who
have a huge score to settle with the Packers, who administered a 42-20 playoff
pounding LY. As usual, home/away dichotomy in Seattle contests is firmly
entrenched. In their 2 RGs, the 'Hawks have a 78-16 pt deficit, but are at 34.2
ppg in their last 5 hosters. And the homer is 31-13 ATS in their last 44 games.
Rodgers (shoulder) played for the Pack vs Atlanta, but a crucial INT did them
in. Sure, McCarthy is 8-1 ATS vs opponents off a SU non-division loss, but
have to see Seattle taking advantage of 26th rated Packer defense. Revenge.

SAN DIEGO 29 - New England 15 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Triple revenge shot for the
Chargers, who not only lost to the Pats during the '07 regular season, but also
in the '06 & '07 playoffs. May have been peeking a bit to this one, in LW's 17-
10 loss to the Dolphins, as they had averaged 34.5 ppg in their first 4 games.
And note a current 11-3 ATS run for SD, with 1 of those misses by a single pt.
The Pats are on a 2-8 ATS run, reaching 20 pts in just 1 of their last 5 outings.
A solid showing at SanFran, but Chargers are another matter. They are 13-4
ATS off a SU loss, as well as 16-6 ATS off being upset. Grab this "must-win".

MONDAY
New York Giants 34 - CLEVELAND 13 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- These 2 sure had
classic all-out wars in the old NFL days. Obviously, they are miles apart now, as
the Giants continue to impress. A 523-187 yd edge over Seattle LW, with a 7.1
ypr showing. Eli? Try 65-of-97 the last 3 games. NY has won its last twelve
away games, & is 13-2 ATS away. Brown "D" has held 7 of last 8 opponents <20
pts, but Anderson is just 3/6 for the year. NY is 11-2 away off a SU win of at least
14 pts, while the Browns are 10-16 ATS off a win. Giants rank in the top 8 in all 8
major stat categories, while Cleveland checks in with the worst "O" in the NFL.

[TheFade]

Kevin Kavitch

Denver is fortunate to be sitting pretty at 4-1 with a comfy 2-game lead in their division. That helps us here and I feels the 2-3 Jags are the better team and there's no question they'll also be the better motivated team off a tough loss to the Steelers. Jacksonville won't be intimidated going into Denver. Last season they came into Denver and won 23-14 as 3 point dogs while running for almost 200 yards. The Broncos are again listed as home favorites here, a role they've surprisingly been poor at in recent seasons. The Jags other 2 losses came against Buffalo & Tennessee in tight games to open the season so quality of opponent has played a big role in their 2-3 start. The Denver defense has struggled and Jacksonville has an excellent chance to win the line of scrimmage and the game. This one is getting added early due to the extra line value of +3.5 but don't shy away if the line does eventually settle at +3. Take Jacksonville +3.5 for a 5* Top Play


The Bengals appear to be an ugly team to back but I expect this is one of those games where the public will get killed backing the obvious favorite. Winless NFL teams that have things going for them make for long-term pointspread success. The Bengals fit the bill. They've given the Giants and Cowboys everything they can handle the past 3 weeks and along with a loss to the Browns where they were -3 in turnovers and playing without Palmer. Palmer is back the Bengals are showing signs of life. I expect him to have even more confidence after testing his arm out under live fire last week. There is no question that Cincy will be the better motivated team and while the Jets are off to a decent start, they are not a special team that would cause us to back off here. They have some deficiencies in their pass defense and their running game has underachieved. The Bengal pass defense has been better than expected this year and are getting healthier which can make an immediate impact. They can hang with New York in this situation. A quick look at the line shows a ton of public action on the Jets but suspiciously the books have been forced to move the line in the opposite direction from -6.5 to -6. Like I've been saying all year, seen this movie before and no doubt the early smart money is on the Bengals. Don't be surprised if the Bengals pull a shocker here and I like this one enough to make a 2nd Top Play which is rare. Take Cincinnati +6 for a 5* Top Play.


MADDUX SPORTS

5 units on Jacksonville & Denver Over 48
3 units on Oakland +7
3 units on Tampa Bay -1.5
3 units on Atlanta +3
3 units on Arizona +5



EZ WINNERS

5* Houston -3

5* Seattle -1.5

3* Atlanta +3

2* St. Louis +14



Andre Gomes

HOU -3.0 vs MIA

Double-Dime Bet

If we look to the standings, there are 4 teams with 0-4 or worse records: Texans, Bengals, Lions and Rams. Well, I just don't want to be disrespectful for the other three teams, but the Texans are on a superior level. This team suffered with the Hurricane Ike earlier in the season, and I'm talking about the lack of concentration that the team should have on the football.

After the unexpected bye week, the Texans lost against the Jaguars and the Colts in two games that the Texans actually outplayed those teams. Against the Jags, they had +11 total yards than the Jags and last week they had +77 total yards than the Colts! The defeat against Indianapolis was a miracle, in a game where the Texans leaded 27-10, and in a couple of minutes they blew up the lead in a dismal loss. The good news for a bettor perspective is that they play again at home, which is a strong spot for them.

Matt Schaubb, unfortunately for the Texans, missed last game (QB Rosenfels screw up against the Colts with 2 awful turnovers) and he's back for this game. Schaubb after bad performances bounced back against the Jags and performed nicely with 3 TD's and 119.5 QB rating, and with Andre Johnson playing well, the Texans have a balance offense.


Steve Slaton has breathed new life into a dying running game, with 285 yards and a 5-yard average per carry. If Ahman Green stays healthy and runs like he did against the Colts, he'll be a nice complement to Slaton. Both are good receivers out of the backfield and the Texans have the right tool to make much damage.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins suddenly are one of the biggest surprises on the league. They slaughtered the Patriots on their own field with a huge upset win and last week they had repeated the same, beating the Chargers at home 17-10.

The key was the Wildcat formation, with which Miami took advantage of the lack of preparation of the opponents to counter this system. But the surprise factor won't last forever and the Texans should be for sure more prepared that the Chargers and Patriots.:

"They're causing a lot of problems because basically you're preparing for two offensive football teams," Texans coach Gary Kubiak said of the Dolphins. "It's not only that they're doing something different. They're running their other offense pretty darn well, too. So, all of a sudden, your preparation is doubled."


The Dolphins average 126 yards a game and a 4.3-yard average per carry. Ronnie Brown has 286 yards, a 4.9-yard average per carry and six touchdowns. He and Ricky Williams (189) are the backs in the wildcat formation and both were the key players on the 2 wins by the Dolphins.

Although the Texans are ranked in 26th rush defense with 138.8 yards allowed, they've improved against the run in the last two games, in which they excelled at, containing Jacksonville's Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, and Indianapolis' Joseph Addai, so I'm expecting a well prepared team to contain the Dolphins' running football.

Miami is overlooked in this game, the surprise factor will not be the same for this game, and we must not forget that in the last game the Chargers were in a bad spot for them: first trip to the East in a earlier game for them, here the evidences: QB Rivers completed only 46.4% of the Passes and the Chargers went 1-3 on the Red Zone Efficiency, and 0-1 on Goal To Go Efficiency.

I expect a huge effort of the Texans for this game, they need badly to win a ballgame which they already deserved, and they will face a team which comes from two upset wins, therefore a letdown is the most likely scenario. I will take the Texans in here for my first double dime pick of the season!


IND -3.0 (-125) vs BAL

DEN / JAC Over 48.0

TAM -1.5 vs CAR

[TheFade]

Larry Ness

Las Vegas Insider: 4-0 in NFL

Seattle Seahawks





King Creole

HOU -3.0 vs MIA

3* BEST BET on: HOUSTON TEXANS

*If needed, the sharp player would make sure (buy?) his line is -2.5 or less.

It's 'Bubble Burst' time for our hometown Dolphins. Off H-U-G-E back to back UNDERDOG wins, the database tells us to fade these overachieving teams in their next game.3-12 ATS since 1982 for ALL NFL teams off BB SU wins as a dog of +6 points or higher (in both games) against an opponent that's off a SU loss. These teams are 1-6 ATS since 1005.... and DOGS of < 7 points are a PERFECT 0-5 ATS (Dolphins).

If it's Game #5 of the NFL season, and you still haven't won a game yet.... it's time to most teams to break out with a BIG win. That's the case for the Texans, who are off a couple of hard-luck losses in a row... an are 0-4 SU so far in 2008.25-8 ATS since 1908 for All GAME FIVE winless teams.... and 13-3 ATS since the 2003 season. Our qualifiers this week in those 13-3 ATS System are HOUSTON, DETROIT, and ST LOUIS. Home teams to PARTICULARLY well in this scenario.... as they have gone a PERFECT 9-0 ATS since the 2001 season (TEXANS).

There's a significant line swing in regards to the pointspread in this game. In a two-week period, Houston has gone from home dogs of +4.5 points to home favs of -3 points.17-6 ATS since 1999: ALL NFL home favorites of -3 > points playing off a home game in which they were a DOG of +4 or more points. On a more recent note, these hosts arte 6-1 ATS in the last 3 years. Bring in a host who LOST that last game, and the original 178-6 ATS set improves to 10-2 ATS.... and a PERFECT 3-0 ATS in the last 3 years.

Now, let's take a look at last week's opponents for each team. Miami upset the San Diego Chargers last week... while Houston lost to division rival Indianapolis Colts.8-1 ATS in GAME 7 or less since the 2002 season for teams who lost to the COLTS last week as a home underdog (TEXANS).... when they are taking on an opponent off a SU win.3-12 ATS for all road underdogs who beat the CHARGERS last week (Dolphins). Or even BETTER: 0-10 ATS since 1984 for road dogs of < 8 points off a SU DOG win over the CHARGERS (Dolphins).

With the 2 Big Dog wins for Miami, they covered the pointspread by 13 points last week (they were dogs of +6 and won by 7).... and they covered the pointspread by 37.5 points against the Patriots (they were dogs of +12.5 and won by 25).0-10 ATS in the HISTORY of our database: ANY NFL team off an ATS home win of +10 or more points... and an ATS road win of +35 or more points (Dolphins).

Despite losing their last 2 games, the Houston offense looked pretty good... scoring 27 points in each game (vs the Colts and Jags). This situation hasn't happened very often when these hard-luck losers take on a decent team in their next game. But the results from the database clearly identify who to put your money on.
4-0 ATS since 1980 for NFL teams off BB SU losses in which they scored 27+ points in each game (TEXANS) when they take on an opponent with a current winning percentage of .500 or better (Dolphins).




RON RAYMOND

5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE WEEK!

Bears / Falcons Over 43.5


5* NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET

Jaguars +3.5





Dominic Brando

13-5 NFL run

100 Unit Golden Star Lock: OAKLAND RAIDERS +8/-120
100 Unit Golden Star Lock: BALTIMORE RAVENS +5/-120
100 Unit Golden Star Lock: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4/-115
100 Unit Golden Star Lock: ARIZONA CARDINALS +6/-125
100 Unit Golden Star Lock: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS PICK/-120

50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: OAKLAND RAIDERS +275
50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: BALTIMORE RAVENS +185
50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +165
50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: ARIZONA CARDINALS +190
50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -125





Stephen Nover

DEN / JAC Over 48.0

Double-Dime Bet

The Broncos pass well and the Jaguars have the potential to run well. That goes hand-in-hand with each team's major defensive weakness.

The Broncos surrendered 198 yards rushing to Larry Johnson two weeks ago in a shocking loss to the Chiefs. Denver ranks 29th in defense and 25th in points allowed. The Broncos' undersized defense can't stop good running backs.

The Jagaurs have two good ones, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. The key for Jacksonville is a banged-up offensive line that is getting more healthy. The Jaguars have scored 51 points in their last two games as their offense heats up.

Denver should put up plenty of points against a banged-up Jacksonville secondary. Behind strong-armed Jay Cutler, the Broncos are averaging nearly 30 points a game and rank second in yards and in passing yards per game.

Trend-wise there are strong indications to an 'over,' too. The Jaguars have gone 'over' in 11 of their last 13 road games. The Broncos are 20-6 to the 'over' in their last 26 games, including 4-1 this season.


STL +14.0 vs WAS

Double-Dime Bet

St. Louis doesn't have much going, offensively or defensively, but this is an outstanding situation for the Rams. St. Louis was idle last week. Fiery Jim Haslett replaces the ineffectual Scott Linehan. His first move was to restore Marc Bulger back to the starting quarterback spot, thus greatly improving team morale.

The Redskins are in a flat spot following tremendous upset division road victories against Dallas and Philadelphia. Those games obviously took a toll on the Redskins, physically and mentally. It will be hard for them to take the winless Rams seriously.

Leonard Little is healthy for the Rams. That's huge because he's a premier pass rusher. He elevates the Rams' entire defense. Washington hasn't committed a turnover in five games. What are the odds of going a sixth straight game without an interception or fumble?

The Redskins also have key defensive injuries. Their best pass rusher, Jason Taylor, and best cornerback, Shawn Springs, missed last week's game. The Rams can keep the chains moving with stud running back Steven Jackson.

Keep in mind, too, that in the parity-filled NFL road underdogs of 10 or more points are 7-0 against the spread this season.


CHI -3 vs ATL

Double-Dime Bet

The Falcons are a surprising 3-2, but the Bears have too much defense and savvy for Atlanta.

Falcons rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has shown a lot of poise and, at times, flashes of greatness. But he's going to have problems with the Bears' well-coached veteran defense that is at full force now with the return of defensive tackle Tommie Harris, who is a difference-maker.

Ryan has received a lot of attention, but very quietly Bears quarterback Kyle Orton is playing extremely well. He's thrown for 801 yards and seven touchdowns during his last three games. The Bears are 14-5 during the last 19 times Orton has started.

The Bears have played stiff competion - Indianapolis, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. The Falcons own home wins versus Detroit and Kansas City - two of the three worst teams in the NFL - and a crippled Green Bay squad.

The Falcons have failed to produce during the two times they've stepped up and faced tough defenses. They were beaten by identical 24-9 scores against Tampa Bay and Carolina. The Bears' defense is just as tough as those two teams.

The Bears shouldn't be bothered playing in a dome setting either. They just beat the Lions in Detroit last Sunday, 34-7.

[TheFade]

KILLER MOVE

JACKSONVILLE (GOM)




Dr. Bob

NY JETS (-8.0) 24 Cincinnati 16

The 0-5 Bengals showed signs of life last week in Dallas and that game triggers a nice buy signal on Cincy. The Bengals apply to a very good 24-3 ATS subset of a 62-24 ATS situation that is based on last week’s competitive loss while the Jets apply to a negative 19-64-1 ATS situation. The Jets have obviously been a much better team than Cincinnati so far this season, but the Bengals are certainly better than what they’ve shown offensively so far and the last two games in which Carson Palmer has played have produced 23 points against the Giants in New York and 22 points at Dallas (Palmer sat out the Bengals’ 12-20 home loss to Cleveland). Palmer has been downgraded to out for this game and the Bengals' offense is likely to struggle with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, as he was horrible in the 12-20 loss to Cleveland (3.7 yards per pass play) and has averaged just 4.8 yppp in his career. The Jets, while better than average defensively overall, are just average against the pass, but Fitzpatrick likely won't be able to take advantage of that. The Bengals could be a pretty good team once the offense gets going when Palmer returns to health, as Cincy’s defense has played very well in allowing just 5.2 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. New York is just 0.1 yppl better than average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), so Cincinnati actually has an advantage over the Jets’ offense. My math model favors New York by 13 points with Fitzgerald playing. The situations favoring the Bengals are very strong but the line value is now heavily in favor of the Jets. I'll pass.


WASHINGTON (-13.5) 30 St. Louis 14

Bad teams usually play much better coming out of their bye week and the Rams apply to a 25-5 ATS situation that is based on that premise, in addition to a 157-89-5 ATS situation that plays on bad teams that have been bad offensively in recent games. Washington, meanwhile, applies to a negative 22-58-2 ATS letdown situation based on their recent success and if ever there were a letdown situation for the Redskins, this would be it. It will be extremely tough for Washington to get charged for this game after consecutive upset wins over division rivals Dallas and Philadelphia. The Redskins could letdown and still win big based on how bad the Rams have been. St. Louis has been out-scored by an average of 11-37 while being out-gained 4.5 yards per play to 6.6 yppl and Washington is 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively. My math model favors Washington by 23 points in this game, so even a huge letdown should result in a pretty easy win.


Oakland vs. NEW ORLEANS (-7.5)

This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here


HOUSTON (-3.0) 24 Miami 21

Houston started the season with 3 straight road games, the last of which was a heart-breaking overtime loss in Jacksonville, and their home opener was ruined last week by blowing a 20 point 4th quarter lead. The Texans are better than their 0-4 record suggests but they’ve been just average offensively so far this season and have been 0.6 yards per play worse than average defensively (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) – which is surprising given how well the young defense played down the stretch last season. Houston has potential to be a good team, but Miami is proving that they are a good team. The Dolphins beat New England and San Diego in consecutive games and now rate at 0.2 yppl better than average on both sides of the ball. Miami has been horrible in special teams, but my math model favors the Dolphins by 1 point in this game. Miami, however, applies to a negative 22-50-1 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their consecutive upset wins and Houston applies to a solid 55-24-4 ATS home bounce-back situation. With the math favoring Miami and the situations favor Houston I’ll just pass on this game.


Baltimore 18 INDIANAPOLIS (-4.0) 17

The Colts are a below average team that was lucky to win at Houston last week after trailing by 20 points late in the game (3 turnovers by backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels spurred the comeback win). Indy has been just average offensively (5.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and Peyton Manning is clearly off his game – although he is improving after a miserable opening game against Chicago. The Indianapolis defense has allowed 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team and that unit has been 0.4 yppl worse than average in two games without injured NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders. Baltimore’s defense isn’t quite as strong without CB Samari Rolle and S Dawan Landry, who both only played the first two games, but the Ravens have still by 0.8 yppl better than average defensively in their last two games (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team) and they have an edge over the Colts’ offense. The Ravens aren’t much offensively, averaging just 4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, but my math model favors Baltimore by ½ a point in this contest and would only favor the Colts by 3 points if Manning snaps out of his slump and goes back to his form of recent years. The Ravens plus the points are a good value play as long as the Ravens’ two injured backup cornerbacks Fabian Washington (he’s started the last two weeks but was injured last week) and Derrick Martin aren’t both out.


ATLANTA 23 Chicago (-2.5) 20

The Falcons have played well at home and last week they stepped up an beat a solid Packers team in Green Bay. I had Atlanta as a Strong Opinion in that game based on their ability to run the ball against a suspect Packers’ run defense, as rookie quarterback Matt Ryan needs a good rushing attack to be effective in the passing game. The Falcons are the league’s best running team, averaging 5.8 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.5 ypr to an average team) and they should be able to run against a Bears defense that is much better defending the pass (0.9 yards per pass play better than average) than they are defending the run (3.9 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.1 ypr against an average defensive team). Atlanta’s defense is still bad, so the Bears’ mediocre attack should move the ball well, but my math model favors the Bears by 2 ½ points – so the line is fair. I’ll favor the Falcons to cover at home on the basis of a 74-27-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation, but they’ve followed every win with a bad game and that will keep me from playing them as a Best Bet. I’d consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion at +3 or more (-115 odds or better).


MINNESOTA (-13.0) 30 Detroit 17

Make the predicted score 30-14 if Jon Kitna does not start for Detroit.
Detroit has been unbelievably bad so far this season, getting out-scored by an average of 16.5 to 36.8 and out-gained 4.6 yards per play to 7.0 yppl. Minnesota is coming off a thrilling Monday night win over New Orleans, but the Vikings are still just 2-3 and can’t afford to take any game lightly. Detroit applies to a 49-19-3 ATS contrary situation that plays on winless teams as big dogs, so I’m not going to go against the Lions here, but my math model favors Minnesota by 16 points if Detroit quarterback Jon Kitna is healthy enough to play (he missed practice on Wednesday) and I’d favor the Vikings by about 19 points if Dan Orlovsky is forced to play (and by about 17 ½ points with Drew Stanton in). The Math favors Minnesota regardless of who quarterbacks the Lions, but the situation favors the big dog here and I’ll pass.

[TheFade]

TAMPA BAY (-1.5) 22 Carolina 16

Tampa Bay covered the spread for their 4th consecutive game last week at Denver, and their 13-16 loss as a 3 ½ point dog should have them motivated to play well at home against the division rival Panthers. Tampa coach Jon Gruden is 27-12-2 ATS in his career as a favorite or pick following a loss and the Buccaneers are also 25-6-1 ATS in regular season home games when not favored by 3 points or more, including a 30-21 win as a small favorite against the Packers a few weeks ago. Carolina is a solid team that I rate as better than average on both sides of the ball, but the Bucs are a good defensive team too and they should get a boost from having Jeff Garcia back at quarterback in place of the interception prone Brian Griese. Griese threw 6 interceptions in 147 passes this season while Garcia has thrown just 6 picks on 385 passes with the Bucs the last two seasons and has one of the NFL’s all-time lowest interception percentages. My math model does favor Carolina by 2 points, but Tampa Bay would have an edge if Garcia plays close to last year’s standards. The reason for liking the Bucs in this game is a very strong 93-37-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors Tampa Bay and a negative 20-55 ATS road letdown angle that applies to the Panthers. I’d consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at -1 or pick and I’d take Tampa in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or better.


DENVER (-3.5) 28 Jacksonville 24

Denver is 4-1 but the Broncos have won 3 games by 3 points or less and they have a porous defense that’s allowed 6.4 yards per play this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). The offense is just as good as the defense is bad, as Jay Cutler and company have averaged 6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. The offense won’t be as good this week without top running back Selvin Young (266 yards at 5.7 ypr) and productive TE Tony Scheffler, who has compiled 259 yards on the 23 passes thrown to him (11.3 yards per attempt). Cutler has averaged a good 7.4 yards per pass attempt throwing to everyone else, but his numbers should still be good in this game against a Jacksonville defense that can’t defend the pass (7.2 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppp against an average defense) and is also worse than average defending the run. The Jaguars have been hurt offensively this season due to the loss of 3 starting offensive linemen, as normally very productive backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor have combined for just 3.6 ypr. Quarterback David Garrard is also struggling (just 5.4 yppp) and the Jags rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively after 5 games. That unit should put up better than average numbers today against Denver’s bad defense, but my math model still favors the Broncos by 7 points in this game. There are no situations favoring either team, but Denver is now just 7-27 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points the week after a victory in the post-John Elway era, including 0-2 ATS this season. I’ll pass.


Green Bay vs. SEATTLE (-2.0)

This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here


Philadelphia (-5.0) 20 SAN FRANCISCO 19

The Eagles have out-gained their opponents 5.6 yards per play to 4.7 yppl but have a 2-3 record to show for it after consecutive upset losses to Chicago and Washington. Losing consecutive games as a favorite is not generally a good omen and the Eagles apply to a negative 45-87-3 ATS situation that is based on that premise, but Philly’s deceiving record makes them an underrated team. San Francisco is a decent team that I rate at 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively, 0.1 yppl better than average defensively and 1.4 points better than average in special teams, but my math model favors the Eagles by 7 ½ points in this game. In addition to the situation going against the Eagles, the Niners apply to a solid 122-57-8 ATS statistical indicator, so I’ll lean with the Niners despite the fact that the line should be higher.


Dallas (-5.0) 27 ARIZONA 25

Dallas is clearly one of the top 3 teams in the NFL (along with the Giants and Redskins) but the Cowboys apply to a negative 22-57-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation this week while Arizona applies to a solid 54-20-5 ATS home underdog momentum situation. Those angles are 8-1 ATS for the home dog when both apply to the same game and Arizona is certainly capable of competing in this game. However, the absence of star WR Anquan Boldin, who has 366 yards on 35 passes thrown to him, is tough to overcome even with Larry Fitzgerald still available for Kurt Warner to thrown passes to. The problem is that teams can now simply double-cover Fitzgerald without having to worry about Boldin. Arizona has been 1.5 yards per pass play better than average for the season (7.2 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average team), but the Cardinals were just 0.1 yppp better than average last week against Buffalo without Boldin (6.1 yppp against a Bills defense that would allow 6.0 yppp on the road to an average team). Arizona’s defense also hasn’t been as good without sack specialist Bertrand Berry the last 2 games (he had 3 sacks in the first 3 games) and my math model favors Dallas by 8 points after adjusting for Boldin and Berry. I’ll still lean with Arizona based on the strong technical support.


SAN DIEGO (-5.0) 25 New England 19

The Patriots’ 13-38 home loss to Miami in week 3 appears to be an aberration, as their other 3 performances have been pretty consistent, so I’ve decided to discard that performance to see how the Patriots would stack up against the Chargers in this game. New England’s offense wasn’t as good last week as the 30 points they scored against the 49ers suggests, as the Patriots averaged just 4.8 yards per play in that game against a Niners’ defense that would allow 5.1 yppl at home to an average team. That -0.3 yppl rating is the same as their offensive rating for the 3 games other than the Miami game and I believe that is the best rating for the Patriots’ offense going forward. There is a huge difference in the Patriots’ rating with and without the Miami game, as New England rates at 0.6 yppl worse than average using all 4 games this season (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow average 5.0 yppl against an average team), but their defensive rating is 0.2 yppl better than average if you exclude the Miami game. A bit better than average defensively is how I projected the Patriots’ defense before the season started and I think they are more likely to be around that rating going forward. The Chargers have out-gained their opponents 6.0 yppl to 5.5 yppl this season and they rate at 0.9 yppl better than average offensively and 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense. It appears that big play WR Chris Chambers will probably not play this week after severely spraining his ankle last week and San Diego would be 0.7 yppl better than average offensively without Chambers. After putting all those numbers together and throwing in special teams (New England has the best special teams in the NFL) I get San Diego by 6 points with a total of 43 ½ points, which is right around the number – so it looks like the oddsmakers excused the Patriots’ one bad outing as a fluke too. There are no significant situations favoring either side in this game and I'll call for a 6 point Chargers' victory.


NY Giants (-7.5) 24 CLEVELAND 17

The Browns have not come close to resembling the high-scoring team of last season, as quarterback Derek Anderson has simply not been able to connect with his receivers down the field. Anderson has thrown the ball to star WR Braylon Edwards 30 times this season for a total of just 95 yards as Edwards is up against double and triple teaming. Getting Donte Stallworth in the lineup this week will help, as he has yet to play and will cause defenses to shade a safety towards his side, but Cleveland still is probably a below average offense that won’t have too many opportunities to score against a very good Giants defense that has allowed just 4.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team. The Giants are clicking on offense too at 6.8 yppl, but Cleveland’s defense has been solid since allowing 7.9 yppl to the Cowboys in their opener (they’ve now allowed 5.5 yppl for the season against teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). My math model favors New York by 13 ½ points, but bad teams coming off their bye week tend to be very good bets as big home underdogs. In fact, teams with losing records (after 3 games or more) coming off their bye week are an incredible 24-3 ATS as home underdogs of 6 points. The Giants have covered 10 straight on the road, but I don’t want to mess with a 24-3 ATS situation so I’ll pass.

[TheFade]

King Creole

ST LOUIS RAMS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2* Play on: OVER

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
2** Play on: OVER

DALLAS COWBOYS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
3*OVER THE TOTAL


GM 1:
The winless Rams return from their Bye week with a new Head Coach (Jim Haslett) and a new starting QB (back to Bulger). They qualify in multiple solid high-scoring situations based on that week of rest.4-0 O/U in the last 3 years for WINLESS road teams playing off their BYE week. And.... 5-1 O/U in the last 4 years for road teams with REST off a DOUBLE-DIGIT home loss.Even if we throw out the ?with rest? situation, the numbers are still good.GAME FIVE non-div teams off a 0-4 SU start are 12-3 O/U... and 5-0 O/U as road dogs of 9 > pts.

This game has the highest line (Wash -13 > pts) on the NFL week six schedule. That works for me. 15-3 O/U since 1995 for all OCTOBER non-division DD dogs (RAMS).

Washington enters the game on a hot 4-game winning streak, with the last 2 wins as division dogs. In the last 4 years, OCTOBER home favs on a 3+ game winning streak are an amazing 16-3 O/U... and these teams went a PERFECT 6-0 O/U last season. We?re talking ?Pedal to the Medal?! When we eliminate the streak from our query and insert the previous DOG win, the numbers are just as good.10-2 O/U since 2001 for GAME SIX home teams playing off a DOG win... and a PERFECT 7-0 O/U in the last 5 years.

Combining the current form of BOTH teams seals the deal: In this decade, GAME FIVE or greater home favs off 3 SUATS wins are a PERFECT 4-0 O/U vs an opp off 3 SUATS losses in a row. The Redskins LOVE beating up on shitty teams (6-0 O/U L10Y favs vs non-div .250 < foes).


GM 2:
Green Bay heads out west on a 3-game losing streak, with the last loss at home as a favorite against the Falcons. A 90% System tells us to look for the OVER.9-1 O/U since 2000 for Conference road dogs off BB SU losses, with the last loss as a home fav of -5 > points.

Numerous one-sided team trends for Green bay help to state our case.11-0 O/U away in between home games... 9-0 O/U vs an opp off a road loss of 7 > pts... 4-0 O/U away vs NFC West teams.

The Packer defense has been leaking oil lately, allowing 25,27, 30, and 27 points.11-2 O/U since 2002 for all GAME FIVE > road teams after allowing 25+ points in each of their last 4 games. Our numbers shoot up to 9-0 O/U vs fellow conference opponents.

Seattle has gone OVER in EACH of their first 4 games this year (4-0 O/U).GAME FIVE teams off 4 straight 'OVERS' are 6-1 O/U since 1998 vs an opponent off a SU loss. Last week's road loss was ugly for the Seahawks, as they lost to the Giants by a score of 44-6. That result is a good sign for us.In the last 4 years, ALL NFL teams are a PERFECT 10-0 O/U off a SU road loss of 35 or more points.

In a final variation that's already gone 2-0 O/U this year, we seal the deal.15-3 O/U in the last 3 years for ALL teams off a SU road loss in whcih they allowed 42 or more points (SEAHAWKS) In the last 12 months, these teams are a PERFECT 12-0 O/U. Your 2 winners this season were Jets/Cardinals OVER and Cardinals/Bills OVER (and we were on BOTH of em).


GM 3:
The bar is set high for this week?s Top OVER, but the timing is right. This week?s high OU line will NOT scare us off. Since 1984, OCTOBER home dogs with an OU line of 49 > pts are 12-3 O/U... and a PERFECT 5-0 for NFC home teams.

With a big 41-17 win behind them, the Cardinals are primed for more high-scoring results.NFL Underdogs off a SU home win in which they scored 40+ points are 12-3 O/U since 2004... and a PERFECT 7-0 O/U in the last 4 seasons.

Arizona also figures to ?let it ALL hang out? on Sunday with their Bye week on deck.So far in the 2008 season, HOME teams are 7-1 O/U before their BYE week. From a team perspective, this also holds up well as the Cards are 5-0 O/U before their Bye in the last 5 years.

Dallas enters this game on a run in which they have scored 24 > pts in EACH of their first 5 games. You think the Arizona ?D? is going to slow them down? Hell NO.In the last 4 years, GAME SIX teams are 7-1-1 O/U after scoring 24+ pts in each of their last 3 games... and a PERFECT 5-0 O/U after scoring 24+ pts in each of their last 4 games.

Dallas barely got by the Bengals last week, and have actually dropped each of their last 2 games ATS.
Since 2002, NFL road teams are 12-1-1 O/U off BB home ATS losses... if they WON their last game in straight-up fashion. The Boys were favored by -16 against the Bengals, and won 31-22.Last 10 years: 7-0 O/U for non-div road favs of fa SU non-div home win but ATS loss as a fav of -14 > points.Play this one ASAP. Late afternoon final score in the desert: 34-27.

[TheFade]

Teddy Covers

20* Chargers

Reg
Bucs -1
Falcons +3
Jags/Broncos Over 48
Cardinals +5





Nathan Armstrong

5* Den/Jack Under
3* Jacksonville
3* Green Bay
3* Giants
2* Jets





Brandon Lang

15 Dime Texans (buy the 1/2 point down to 2-1/2)

15 Dime Cowboys

15 Dime Rams

10 Dime 6-point Teaser - Raiders and Jets

5 Dime Eagles

FREE - Chargers





IndianCowboy

Chicago Bears / Atlanta Falcons
Pick: 3 units Over 43.5 (POD)





Two Minute Warning

Best Bets
Investor

Oakland +7
Baltimore +4 1/2
Detroit +13 1/2
St. Louis +13 1/2
Denver -3 1/2
San Francisco +5
Arizona +5





David Malinsky

5* Dallas
4* St Louis
4* Jville/Denver Under

[TheFade]

Sports Wise Guys


5 Star Picks (Week 6):



Seattle -2 over Green Bay
Chicago -2.5 over Atlanta
New England +6 over San Diego
Philadelphia/San Francisco Over 43
New Orleans/Oakland Under 47.5



Allen Eastman

$2500.00#214 Atlanta (+3) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12) UNDER DOG GOY
The Falcons have been incredible at home this year, winning their two games at the Georgia Dome by a combined 72-35. This is a young Falcons team, coming off a big upset at Lambeau, and I think they are going to get a big boost playing in front of the home faithful after two road games. Both of Chicago’s losses have come against NFC South teams while Atlanta is 2-0 SU and ATS against the NFC North. Atlanta has covered five of seven games overall and I think that they win this game outright. They are still one of the most underrated teams in the NFL and I think this is a great opportunity to cash in on these up-and-comers.

$2000.00 #209 Carolina (+1.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
The road team has won seven of 10 in this series outright and the Panthers have absolutely dominated this series lately, winning eight of 10 from the Bucs. Carolina is also 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings and is better on both sides of the ball right now. I think the Panthers have the more impressive resume and I think that with Steve Smith they have the best offensive player on either team. Tampa struggled to move the ball against Denver last week, and I don’t see them being able to keep up with Jake Delhomme and the Panthers in this one.

$600.00 ‘Under’ 45.5 Detroit at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
Minnesota is going to want to run the ball and control the clock against the Lions this week, and Detroit’s Tampa-2 is going to focus on not giving up the big play (unlike what New Orleans did on Monday) in the passing game. Also, Jon Kitna is likely out for the Lions and I don’t see either of Detroit’s backups being able to put up many points against one of the best defenses in the league.

$400.00 ‘Over’ 36.5 Carolina at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
The numbers suggest that these are two of the better offenses in the league and I am looking for both clubs to get into the 20’s in this meeting. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Tampa Bay and is 8-3 in Tampa Bay’s last 11 games overall.

$2000.00 #224 Arizona (+5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
Dallas is a team that’s dealing with an awful lot of turmoil this week as head cases like T.O. and Pac Man are doing everything they can to serve as a distraction. Arizona is looking at this game as an opportunity to make a statement and the home team is 5-2 ATS in this series. Dallas is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and continues to be a team facing inflated odds from the books. We’ll take the points and look for the Cards to put a scare into the Boys.

$300.00 #205 Baltimore (+4.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
Baltimore has played great against two of the better teams in the league (Pittsburgh, Tennessee) over the last two weeks while the Colts really should have gotten blown out in Houston. Baltimore is the much tougher team here and they should manhandle Indianapolis on both sides of the ball. The line on this game is sinking like a stone and I think that’s a great indicator that we’re getting value on the Ravens.

TEASER
10 POINT MOVE
ATL +13
TB OVER 26.5
CAR+2....................................$200.00





Oscarxena Sports

215 Miami/Houston Over 44 1/2 -1.07 (3 Unit Play)




Erin Rynning

regular plays

Baltimore
under SF/ Philly

playmaker

under Sea/GB




cappers access

Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick

Sun (NFL) Raiders
Sun (NFL) Jets
Sun (NFL) Broncos