NFL is Here Again!

[diondublin]

NFL is here again...or at least the pre-season. As usual, it will be a gold mine and you will have the benefit of some of my thoughts this season.

The first thought is obviously not to make any bets in the pre-season games, as only a mug would bet these.

However, on SECOND thought (which came very quickly, I must admit, in the usual way), I have played Buffalo (+3) versus Tennessee.

Obviously make sure you get 3pts here rather than 2.5pts. This is especially valid because the total is very low (31) so the likelihood of a close game increases, as does the value of that handicap start. Also obviously don't knock yourself out on staking.

The point here is one I shall be returning to again and again all season, and that is that teams who have recently been 'luckier' than their opponents on turnovers will be over-rated and should not be bet!

Champions and chumps (who genuinely cause and give away turnovers) aside, moderate teams might go minus 7 or plus 7 on turnovers over a season with nothing more than statistical variance being responsible. Obviously these sort of numbers will put plus or minus two or three wins on an average team real quick.

Thusly, if you have a 6-10 team with a minus-seven count against a 10-6 team with a plus-seven count DO NOT BET ANY MONEY ON THE 10-6 TEAM BEING BETTER!!!!!

You have been warned - good luck!

Do this to the bookies......and of course feel free to wait until the proper season starts, and potentially until clear patterns of mis-ratedness have been established, before having a proper bet!

Adrian

[wayner]

Very interested in the way you break teams down. I must say I'll stay tuned for your posts! I'm a hardcore College and NFL football junkie as well. Right now playing the MLB is tough, you can often throw out all of your stats, breakdowns of the matches or whatever, and watch your team slide away. It seems who ever gets up for the game, whether it be the poorer team, or the one with an edge, wins and you won't find that on paper. One more thought...there's alot of jack to be made in preseason NFL! In that Bills/Titans game , I'm leaning with the Titans. I look at the quarterback rotations and I'm thinking Tennesee is head & shoulders above Buffalo there! Anyway I look forward to the season! Cheers...wayner.