Laying Eight Points Away From Home

diondublin · October 11th, 2009, 10:24 AM

I have only one confirmed system play today (although I like the Jets tomorrow) and it is the Cowboys (-8) over the Chiefs.

The question is as follows. Unless the team one is betting on is absolutely stellar (think 16-0 Patriots), is it a bad thing to have a policy to never lay more than a touchdown away from home in the NFL?

Or are the Chiefs that bad that you can 'get away with it' in this game?

The thing in the NFL is obviously that the away side is essentially always delighted with any sort of win, so why should they take risks to win by nine or more for you? Perhaps they will kneel down in scoring position seven clear, or give up a clock-controlling late-but-slow touchdown on a drive playing prevent defence that takes it back to seven only.

In other words, your team can dominate, be leading by an easy fourteen with almost nothing left and one unimportant play can kill your bet - and this would be an acceptable game plan to your team!

I worry that the crucial thing to this analysis is that a home team might have the 'home pride' to keep it above the number late, or indeed the motivation to run the score up to something unassailable, but an away favourite might play it differently, putting your 8-point bet in jeapordy.

Additionally I always have an attitude in European football (soccer) never to bet on a team to do more than they need to do (i.e. if they need a draw only to qualify don't bet them to win the game!)

Thoughts on this sort of situation please?

pitter · October 11th, 2009, 11:26 AM

I could not agree more. It is hard to bet on the unknown. Most of the time it is harder to get motivated for a game on the road and prepare the way a team should. Add in the factor that you should blow the next team out some teams act like it is a buy week. Most good teams find a way to win and many good coaches can get their teams ready but the NFL has alot of parity and I feel like your not laying a large spread on the road will save you more in the end.

Murdoch Sez · October 11th, 2009, 01:13 PM

The question is as follows. Unless the team one is betting on is absolutely stellar (think 16-0 Patriots), is it a bad thing to have a policy to never lay more than a touchdown away from home in the NFL?

Or are the Chiefs that bad that you can 'get away with it' in this game?

... NEVER say never. All rules have exceptions.