Dr. Bob

Analysis

NY GIANTS (-4.0) 21 Washington 17
04:00 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Sep-04 - Stats Matchup
Washington rallied down the stretch last season to win their final 4 regular season games with backup quarterback Todd Collins in charge of the attack. Collins struggled in the playoff loss to Seattle, Joe Gibbs retired again and the Redskins have a new coach in Jim Zorn. Zorn brings with him a West Coast style offense that will probably suit quarterback Jason Campbell, who completed 70% of his passes as a senior at Auburn in a similar system. The West Coast offense requires accuracy and Campbell has that quality. Campbell only averaged 5.8 yards per pass play last season (excluding a 54 yard hail mary pass that was completed – and random as far as I’m concerned), but he faced a teams that would allow only 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Campbell, while average on a yards per pass play basis, only threw 11 interceptions and he is more likely to limit his mistakes with more short passes in the playbook. It’s tough to say how Campbell will perform with a new offense to run, but I’ll call for numbers similar to last season. The rushing attack was hurt last season by two early season injuries to linemen RT Jon Jansen in week 1 and to RG Randy Thomas the very next week. With those two back healthy I expect Clinton Portis (1262 yards at only 3.9 ypr) and Ladell Betts (335 yards at just 3.6 ypr) to rebound with much better numbers this season. Washington was an average offensive team last season (although worse than average until Collins’ late season heroics) and the Redskins should be about average offensively this season – although they could struggle early on with the new offense (they’ve been inconsistent in the preseason).

Washington’s defense was among the best in the league in the first half of 2007, allowing just 4.7 yards per play through week 8 against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Top cornerback Carlos Rogers was lost to injury and a couple of weeks later All-Pro free safety Sean Taylor was murdered. The Redskins started to get burned deep without Rogers and Taylor, but things turned back around the final 4 games when gifted young strong safety LaRon Landry played mostly as the last line of defense at free safety, which is the position he’ll play this season. Rogers has returned from his knee injury and has reportedly looked strong in camp, so I expect the Redskins’ pass defense to be pretty strong with Rogers, Shawn Springs (coming off another very good season), and Landry all being All-Pro caliber players. The Redskins defended the run well all season, yielding just 3.9 ypr to teams that would combine to average 4.3 ypr against an average team.

Washington grades out as a better than average team, but a lot of that depends on how quickly the players get comfortable with the new schemes on both sides of the ball.

The Giants were the most improbable Super Bowl champs ever and their 4 game post-season run could lead to them being an overrated team this season. Eli Manning is not suddenly a poised, mistake free quarterback just because he had just 1 interception in 4 playoff games. Just before his good performance in week 17 against the Patriots Manning was playing the worst football of his career, which is pretty bad given how bad his career was up to that point. Manning threw 20 interceptions in 16 regular season games and finished the season averaging 5.8 yards per pass play (including the playoff games) against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. While Manning has a below average quarterback in every season of his career thus far I actually think he’ll be better than average this season in both yppp and in interception percentage, as last year’ magical run is likely to give him more confidence and give his teammates more confidence in him. New York already has a great rushing attack that averaged 4.5 ypr last season (against teams that would allow 4.0 ypr to an average team) and they should be good running the ball again this season.

New York struggled defensively in a 35-45 opening day loss at Dallas, but star DE Michael Strahan and CB Sam Madison didn’t start in that game and the Giants’ defense was much better starting in week 2 with those two players in the lineup. The Giants rated at 0.7 yards per play better than average defensively from week 2 through the Super Bowl, allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team. The Giants aren’t likely to be as strong this season with Michael Strahan retired and star DE Osi Umenyiora out for the season due to a recent knee injury. Those two ends combined for 21 sacks and 28 quarterback hurries last season and they’ll be impossible to replace. New York should still be better than average rushing the passer, but they won’t come close to the 3.1 sacks per game that they average in 2007. Less pressure on the quarterback from the defensive line will make it tougher for mediocre secondary to cover opposing receivers and the Giants could go from very good against the pass to average this season. The run defense should remain good with LB Antonio Pierce roaming the middle of the field (although he’s questionable for this game).

The Giants are probably going to be better on offense and not as good on defense this season, and they are certainly not that much better than an average team overall. The Giants look like they’ll be fighting for a wild card spot in the playoffs once again in what should be an 8-8 or 9-7 season.

My ratings favor New York by 3 ½ points with a total of 40 ½ points, which is pretty close to the line, but the Giants apply to a 41-21 game 1 angle.