Monday Night Football Service Plays

[TheFade]

PlayByPlayInc. NFL

9/8/2008 MINNESOTA at
GREEN BAY Over 38

9/8/2008 DENVER at
OAKLAND Over 41


Wild Bill

Vikings and Packers Over (5 units)
Vikings +3 (5 units)


SPORTS INSIGHTS

479 Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Monday Night Football has the Favre-less Green Bay Packers at home versus the Minnesota Vikings. You would think that “the solid Packer playoff team” from last year lost half of their team in addition to their aging star, Brett Favre.

The visiting Minnesota Vikings are collecting about 70% of the bets. All of this public money has pushed the “number” off of the huge key number of 3. There is good value in getting Green Bay -2 at home. We’ll “bet against the public” and grab this contrarian value.

Green Bay Packers -2

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 1.

Green Bay Packers -2

The Sports Reporter newsletter

RECOMMENDED TOTAL
UNDER 41.5
DENVER at OAKLAND
DENVER, 16-13

ARMVIN SPORTS NFL
9/8/2008 DENVER at
OAKLAND Under 41


Value-Champ Sports NFL

9/8/2008
Best Bet! GREEN BAY -2


Teddy Sevransky/ Teddy Covers (over/under wins props)

The following is a 10*

Vikings Over 8.5




Ron Raymond
1 2008-09-03 RON RAYMOND'S 93.3% NFL WINNING SITUATION!
Pick # 1 Denver Broncos (-3.0)




Larry Ness

NFC North Game of the Month

15* GB Packers.




CAPPERS ACCESS

Mon-Night (NFL) Packers
Mon-Night (NFL) Raiders



Big Al McMoride
3* Raiders



NSA

Broncos 20*



DCI

GREEN BAY 30, Minnesota 17
Denver 24, OAKLAND 23


Wild Bill


Vikings and Packers Over (5 units)
Vikings +3 (5 units


Bob Balfe

NFL Football

Packers -2.5 over Vikings

All eyes will be on Aaron Rogers in this game as the Brett Favre era officially ends with a new QB on the field tonight. The Packers will be ok with Rogers. The Green Bay receivers are very talented and Ryan Grant is a good running back. The real question is how will the Vikings be able to score on the tough Packers defense. Tavaris Jackson is not the best throwing QB and injuries have slowed him on his feet. This is the very building where Adrian Peterson got hurt last year and he looked awful in the preseason. The Vikings suspended LT McKinney is suspended so you can beat Jackson will feel uncomfortable all night. The Packers have handled the Vikings in all four meetings dating back to two seasons ago. This Packers team is unchanged except for the QB position. This game will be won of defense. Take the Packers.

Raiders +3 over Broncos

The Broncos are going to struggle on offense this season. Denver has a young offensive line and their offensive backfield is also unproven. Tonight Brandon Marshall will not play so they are extremely thin in the receiver slot. One thing Oakland brings on offense is size. This team is huge and they will run the ball all night. JaMarcus Russell has a year under his belt and should be much improved. The Broncos are really going to be worn out in this game. Oakland should pound the ball running and when Russell takes off you better not tackle him high at 6-6 260. The Oakland defense will be stacked in the secondary and should take care of the Broncos offensive line to limit the running game. Oakland might surprise some people this year and make a playoff push. Take the Raiders.

[TheFade]

Charlies Sports

nfl.vikings @ packers under 38 (500*)
nfl. packers-2 (30*)
nfl. raiders+3 (20*)
nfl. broncos @ raider over 41 (20*)




INDIAN COWBOY

NFL RESEARCH

Minny vs. Green Bay

Note that Tavaris Jackson is probable for this ballgame and Grant is also listed as probable for the Packers. If you remember, Green Bay covered against Minny both times last year including the last game they played against them at home in which they won 34-0. Note, that Green Bay was 1-3 in the preseason and they lost to the Bengals and the Titans at home. It's frankly amazing to see a line that opened up at -3 and now has gone to -1 in favor of the Packers as the public is all over the Vikings to a tune of 2:1. But, can one really justify betting on the Packers with a quarterback that has underperformed thus far? Or, can one really justify taking the Vikings with a quarterback like T. Jackson? The point is, I don't trust either of these QB's to put any hard on earned money on the likes of Jackson or Rodgers. In essence, don't bet for the sake of betting, but rather, bet, with a clear edge to make profit, if you don't have it, let it go.

Denver vs. Oakland

This line has significantly gone up in favor of Denver considering that it opened up at -1 and now has moved up to -3. Keep in mind though that I don't think too much of the public is aware of the fact that Denver's 3 wide receivers likely will not play in this ballgame - Marshall (questionable), Walker (out with suspension) and Walker is listed as Questionable as well. Thus, given that Oakland has a great rush defense from last year, and the passing attack for Denver will likely not be optimal, this could favor the under or a possible an outright Oakland win. I know over 60% of the public is riding Denver here on the road, but the Black Hole is a very tough place to play for any team, remember the Steelers lost at Oakland last year as -9.5 favorites as Oakland won that game outright. Oakland didn't look overly impressive in their preseason games however, and I still don't trust this offense although I do like their defense very much. If anything, a lean on the under here, but I trust neither of these teams




Wise Guy Handicapping

4 Units Minnesota Vikings +2
1 Unit Oakland Raiders +3




WUNDERDOG SPORTS

Game: Minnesota at Green Bay (Monday 9/08 7:00 PM Eastern)

The post-Favre era takes center stage on Monday Night Football's early game. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers look to put Favre, and his 17 seasons as the face of the Packers, behind them with a victory over the Vikings. This team still has high expectations, despite the departure of their Hall of Fame QB, thanks to a strong defense and surprisingly strong running game with the emergence of Ryan Grant in the second half of last season. The Vikings are similar in several ways in that they have a very tough defense and very strong ground game. As a result, this game will probably come down to which QB plays better. The underdog is 23-9 ATS the past 32 games in this series. Thirteen of Green Bay's seventeen games last season went OVER the total.



Game: Denver at Oakland (Monday 9/08 10:15 PM Eastern)

This is a big game for both teams. Denver has high hopes after a dissapointing 2007 campaign. With Jay Cutler's diabetes in check, Denver has hopes for reaching the playoffs this year behind the 3rd year emerging star. Lane Kiffin enters his second year with the pressure building. Oakland has been no less than the worst team in football since the 2003 season, posting a combined 19-61 record. That losing has enabled the Raiders to draft into skill positions that will hopefully begin paying dividends this season. DeMarcus Russell, a former #1 pick, finally inherits this team. The Darren McFadden era also starts tonight. Jay Cutler will be without his favorite target tonight, Brandon Marshall, who is serving a suspension. Denver is just 2-10 ATS inside of the divison the last two years. But, Oakland is 1-8 ATS over the same time span in close games (lined at -3 to +3)



SPORTS ADVISORS

Minnesota at Green Bay

The post-Brett Favre era begins at Lambeau Field in Green Bay when the Packers host the rival Vikings in a season-opening battle between teams thinking they have a chance at the NFC North title.

Green Bay (13-3, 12-3-1 ATS in 2007) made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game last year, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants 23-20 in overtime as a nine-point favorite. Favre retired two months after the defeat before un-retiring in July and being traded to the Jets. That leaves the offense in the hands of Aaron Rodgers, the first quarterback since 1992 to start a game for the Packers other than Favre.

Rodgers has attempted just 59 passes in his career and has just one TD pass, but he’s got some weapons at WR in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings who both had more than 900 yards receiving a year ago with Jennings catching 12 TD passes. However, it’s the defense that could carry Mike McCarthy’s squad, led by defensive-line anchor Aaron Kampman whose 27½ sacks is the most of the NFC in the last two seasons. Overall, the Packers’ defense ranked second in the NFL last year, giving up 18.2 points a game.

The Vikings (8-8 SU, 7-7-2 ATS) struggled down the stretch last season, losing their final two games to the Redskins (32-21 as six-point favorites) and at Denver (22-19 in overtime as three-point favorites) to cost themselves a playoff spot. Those two losses followed a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS).

Minnesota certainly relies heavily on its defense and has added pro-bowler Jared Allen and his 15½ sacks to the defensive line to go along with Kevin Williams and Pat Williams. Brad Childress’ offense is led by third-year QB Tarvaris Jackson, who has thrown more INTs (16) than TDs (11) in his 14 career starts, and RB Adrian Peterson, who ran for 1,341 yards and 13 TDs in his rookie campaign last year.

Minnesota is on ATS runs of 11-5-1 against the NFC North rivals, 5-1 in season openers and 5-1-2 in September contests. Meanwhile, Green Bay is on ATS streaks of 16-5-1 overall, 13-6-1 on Mondays, 8-3 against division foes, 5-1 at home and 5-0 in September kickoffs.

Green Bay has won four straight over the Vikings (3-1 ATS) and seven of the last 10 series clashes (5-5 ATS). The underdog owns a 16-5 ATS advantage in this rivalry over the past decade and the road team has gone 10-2 ATS in the last 12. Last season at Lambeau, the Packers scored a 34-0 blowout victory as a 5½-point chalk. Finally, the straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 in this rivalry.

The under is 6-2-1 in Minnesota’s last nine on the road and 15-6-1 in its last 22 on grass. Meanwhile the over is 8-0 in the Packers’ last eight against NFC competition and 14-3 in their last 17 overall. Lastly, the under is 5-1-1 in this rivalry the last three-plus seasons.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY


Denver at Oakland

A classic AFC West rivalry is renewed on the opening Monday night when the Broncos pay a visit to McAfee Coliseum to take on the Raiders.

Denver (7-9, 5-11 ATS) started strong with consecutive victories last year, but then went on a five-game losing skid and failed to make the playoffs for the second straight season. Broncos’ QB Jay Cutler completed 63.6 percent of his throws in his first full season running the offense and threw for 3,497 yards, 20 TDs and 14 INTs. The biggest change for Mike Shanahan’s squad is the on offensive line, as no starter from a season ago is back to block for RBs Selvin Young and Andre Hall.

Oakland (4-12, 6-10 ATS) endured its fifth consecutive losing campaign in 2007 and now has lost 61 games during this stretch that dates to their appearance in the 2002 Super Bowl. The Raiders will try to turn things around behind QB JaMarcus Russell, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft who takes over a sluggish offense. In his only start last season, Russell went 23-for-31 for 224 yards and a TD in the season finale against San Diego. In the backfield, coach Lane Kiffin has the choice of Justin Fargas (1,009 yards rushing last season) or dynamic rookie Darren McFadden.

The Broncos are on ATS slides of 7-19 overall, 2-10 against AFC West rivals, 0-4 on the highway and 0-4 in September games. Oakland also has been a betting disaster the last five years, sporting ATS skids of 26-54-1 overall, 19-40-1 against the AFC, 8-22 at home, 0-6 on Mondays and 5-11 in September.

These teams split their two matchups a season ago with the home team winning each. Oakland scored a 34-20 win over the Broncos as a 3½-point home ‘dog in December. In fact, the Raiders are 4-0 ATS over the last two seasons against Denver, but they are just 2-8 SU (5-5 ATS) in the last 10, with the straight-up winner going 7-3 ATS in those 10 contests.

For Denver, the over is on runs of 19-7-1 overall, 9-2 against the AFC, 6-1 against the AFC West and 5-2 on the road. For Oakland, the over streaks include 6-1 overall, 4-1 against the AFC and 4-0 in September, but the under is 13-5 in the Raiders’ last 18 against AFC West rivals. Also, the under is 6-1 in the Raiders’ last seven Monday Night appearances, 5-1 in Denver’s last six on Mondays and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings between these rivals.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER