Free Sunday NFL Picks

[TheFade]

Power Sweep

4* Carolina 31-17
3* Houston 28-13
2* Tampa 27-6
2* New Orleans 24-17

3* Titians U39
3* Bills U37
3* Giants 042
2* Falcons U38
2* Patriots U38



WILD BILL

Saints pk (5 units)
Lions +3 (5 units)
Over 45 Lions-Packers (5 units)
Jacksonville -6 (5 units)
Indy -1 (5 units)
Tampa -8 (5 units)
Miami +7 (5 units)
Pittsburgh -5 1/2 (5 units)
San Diego -1 (5 units)
Eagles +7 (5 units)
Under 47 Eagles-Cowboys (5 units)




Armvin Sports Nfl

9/14/2008 Indianapolis -2


THE GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES
KANSAS CITY by 14 over Oakland
TAMPA BAY by 20 over Atlanta
OVER THE TOTAL in the Chicago-Carolina game



SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 14
KANSAS CITY 24 - Oakland 10—Third start overall and first on the
road for JaMarcus Russell, who will experience the unique “pleasure” of trying to direct his team amid the cacophany of arguably the NFL’s noisiest stadium. Brodie Croyle (0-7 as a starter; check status) finally beginning to face opposing QBs with even less experience than his own. Raider RBs (Fargas, McFadden, Bush) imposing, but Oakland OL and WRs not. Will count on improving young Chiefs’ defense and K.C.’s crowd to fluster Russell into mistakes. (07-K. City 12-OAK. 10...K.14-10 K.32/126 O.24/55 O.18/29/1/213 K.16/32/1/164 K.0 O.1) (07-Oak. 20-K. CITY 17...O.19-18 K.37/164 O.29/153 O.15/22/0/159 K.12/23/1/128 O.1 K.0)
(07-Kansas City +2' 12-10, Oakland +4' 20-17...SR: Kansas City 52-44-2)


TAMPA BAY 26 - Atlanta 6—A rookie QB (Matt Ryan) on a rebuilding
team (Atlanta) with a rookie head coach (Mike Smith) is NOT a good
combination for facing the most-developed of the usually-confusing, two-deep, zone-blitz defenses now simply dubbed the “Tampa Two” scheme throughout football. Especially with that combination on the road, and especially when the Bucs dominated the Falcs LY (before Michael Turner, however), winning twice by a total score of 68-10! T.B. offense perfectly average (worse than average if Jeff Garcia & Joey Galloway not in tune), but stop unit expert at producing opponent mistakes.
(07-T. Bay 31-ATL. 7...15-15 T.31/149 A.19/49 A.31/48/2/226 T.11/21/0/156 T.2 A.2) (07-T. BAY 37-Atl. 3...T.21-5 T.48/190 A.20/106 T.15/25/1/95 A.4/15/2/27 T.0 A.2) (07-Tampa Bay -3 31-7, TAMPA BAY -12' 37-3...SR: Tampa Bay 17-12)



OVER THE TOTAL Chicago 27 - CAROLINA 26—Kudos to Steve
Smith-less Carolina and to Jake Delhomme (and his surgeons) for their lastplay victory at San Diego. However, the running of rookie Matt Forté (123 yards) and the nearly-mistake-free play of Kyle Orton (13 of 21, no ints.) was a big boost not only to the Bear offense, but to the Chicago defense, which was both injured and overworked LY. Must be impressed with Lovie’s depth on the DL especially with DTs Harris and Dvoracek both healthy, plus impressive thirdround pick Marcus Harrison of Arkansas. With Jake back for Panthers, however, will look “over” again in Charlotte.



SCOTT FERRALL

Washington PK over Saints

Detroit +3 from Packers at Ford Field

Carolina -3 to Chicago

RAMS +9 from Giants in St.Louis--upset with the number

Tampa -8 to Atlanta--don't be suckered by the Falcons--they still are going to blow



CKO Confidential Kick-Off

CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average


10 MIAMI at *Arizona

Late Score Forecast:

MIAMI 20 - *Arizona 17

(Sunday, September 14)

Expect Miami to improve substantially now that unusual Pennington-vs.-Favre, Dolphins-Jets first game is out of the way. CKO insiders say no-nonsense Dolphin HC Tony Sparano, an OL guru as an assistant, is quite pleased with the potential of the Miami OL, especially rugged rookie top-pick LT Jake Long, second-year C Samson Satele, and powerful former LT-turned-RT Vernon Carey. Thus, expect Dolphins to begin running with more authority as that unit jells in front of hard-running Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. Chad Pennington (2 TDP in opener vs. his former team) figures to be a good ball-control caretaker of the offense. So Arizona best not be full of itself after its Game One victory over still-marginal S.F. and QB J.T. O'Sullivan in his first start. Cards 0-5 last 10 years laying more than 7 points!




*** EZWINNERS NFL ***

5 STAR: (219) PITTSBURGH (-6) over Cleveland
(Risking $550 to win $500)
7:15PM Central Time

3 STAR: (202) CAROLINA (-3) over Chicago
(Risking $330 to win $300)
12PM Central Time

2 STAR: (197) NEW ORLEANS (PICK) over Washington
(Risking $220 to win $200)
12PM Central Time



Phenom

NY Giants
Tampa Bay
Tennessee
Green Bay
Seattle
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia

[TheFade]

Wunderdog

Game: Miami at Arizona (Sunday 9/14 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Miami +7 (-110)


Last Sunday the Cardinals had ample opportunity to blow out the Niners as they had a five-turnover advantage. But they ended up in a close game at home vs a team they were supposed to beat. Arizona could not move the ball in the red-zone and cash in on five extra chances. Their defense was only on the field for 22 minutes vs an average offense, and still gave up plenty of yards. Not likely they will be +5 in turnovers here again. Miami was within one play of beating the Brett Favre hyped Jets, as Pennington drove them down to the Jets 18 late, but was picked off to end their hopes. Pennington still finished with 26 completions for 251 yds and 2 TDs, so the Dolphins immediately have a huge upgrade at QB as compared to the one-win team from 2007. Statistically the Fins played the Jets to a dead heat, and overall they looked like a better team than the Cardinals. This line is based on a 1-15 Dolphin team from a year ago (that happened to lose in week one). But the Cards don't deserve to be this chalky after last week's performance. Last year they were favored at home by 6 over Carolina and lost, 10 over San Francisco and lost, and 11 over Atlanta and had to go to OT to get the win. Miami is much better, and I'll back them with the points here.


Sun, 09/14/08 - 4:05 PMJeff Bonds | NFL Side
triple-dime bet210 SEA -6.5 (-110) BetUS vs 209 SFX
Analysis:
The Seattle Seahawks will turn things around against division-opponent San Francisco on Sunday - thanks to an active defense and the 12th man. After all - Seattle blitzed the 49ers to death last season, outscoring them 47-3 in the two meetings.



Seattle also is a dominant 8-1 ATS win winning at home within the division the past three years - covering the spread by an average of 12 points.



San Francisco is being led by QB J.T. O'Sullivan, as the offense fell to one of the worst NFL road teams (Arizona) mainly due to five turnovers. Definitely not an easy task to now travel to the NFL's loudest stadium and correct things on offense.



The 49ers managed to average just 11 points per game in 12 of their last 14 games and that will continue in facing BY FAR - the best defense in their division.



Seattle still has a solid enough running game to display with new running back Julius Jones making his debut and Hasselbeck has the ability to bounce back from a rusty performance better than anyone in the National Football League.



The Seahawks make it a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games - marking head coach Mike Holmgren's 100th home victory of his distinguished career.



Jimmy is stepping out with his first five-star play of the season in the NFL.
Ungraded
Handicapper: Jimmy Sirody
League: NFL
Event: Miami Dolphins vs Arizona Cardinals on 09/14/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Miami Dolphins
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Miami showed a lot of grit in its season opener, hanging around for much of the game against Brett Favre and his New York Jets. See no reason why the Dolphins should be this big a dog against Arizona. Miami lost six games last year by a field goal or less. The Dolphins are 15-3-1 as non-division dogs of five points or more and they are 8-4-1 as pups against NFC opponents. The Cardinals are 4-9 ATS after beating a division foe by double digits and 4-12 ATS at home off a SU&ATS win. They have also come up short in their last seven at home versus the AFC-East ATS. I'm grabbing the points with Miami

Double Black Diamond Selection! Tommy Dutch's NFL Play of the Month!
Ungraded
Handicapper: Tommy Dutch
League: NFL
Event: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns on 09/14/2008 at 5:15PM
Condition: Cleveland Browns
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Take the Browns! We're catching a bunch of points at home in a game between two teams I have rated essentially even. This is a Browns team which went 7-1 at home last season and improved in the offseason. Pittsburgh went 3-5 on the road last season including a big win at Cleveland in the first game when the Charlie Frye experiment was still in effect. The results from Week 1 help give us tremendous line value in this matchup between divisional rivals. These two teams know each other inside out. The statistical concern is that Pittsburgh was so successful running the football, while Cleveland could not stop Dallas on the ground. That's true but familiarity and a fired up Cleveland team at home are more than enough to compensate. Cleveland is expected to be a contender in the North and the Browns' season is measured on how they play against the Steelers. In the last meeting between the two teams Cleveland blew a 21-9 halftime lead and missed a field goal as time expired in a 31-28 loss. The Steelers were successful running the ball against the Browns last year and will try to establish themselves on the ground again. The Browns improved defensive front failed to impress in Week 1 but it was a tired unit. After the Browns fell behind against Dallas they were playing catch-up, throwing the ball ineffectively and putting the defense on the field for the majority of the game. The Browns rushing game was effective when used and will be the immediate focus in this contest. If established the passing game will open up and the Browns will be the right side. Cleveland will bring an A effort which the Steelers did not see against the Texans. Don't put too much stock in one game. Look for these divisional rivals to bang heads all night in a close contest. Take the Browns plus the points!



Dave Malinsky

GAME: San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Sep 14, 2008 4:15PM
PICK: San Diego Chargers +1

4* SAN DIEGO over DENVER

Some of the biggest over-reactions in any calendar sports year come after the first week of NFL play. It is the only sport left where the betting “public” is still a significant factor in the setting of the lines, and that puts some outstanding situations into our laps. This is one of them, now that we can take the Chargers at +1.

San Diego buried Denver over eight quarters LY. The two games were won by a combined 64-6, with the scoreboard a pretty accurate reflection of what was happening on the field – the Chargers won the total offense by 297 yards. And with San Diego only scoring seven fourth quarter points, we can see that both games could have been even worse. And 2007 was not really anything new – the previous season brought a pair of wins by a total of 36 points, so the Chargers own a 4-0 advantage with Philip Rivers as the starting QB in this series, winning by an average of 23.5 per game. But now here come the Week #1 results in which these two teams fell a combined 35.5 off of the oddsmakers projections, and that leads to the usual leaping to the wrong conclusions.

The Bronco problem in this matchup LY, and in general, was a soft defensive front that could be controlled at the point of attack. So what did we see in Monday’s 41-14 rout of Oakland? A soft defensive front that could be controlled at the point of attack. Raider RB’s Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden rambled for 143 yards at 5.3 per carry, but they could not run the ball more because their own defense took them out of the game. We rarely find teams in a favorite’s role that have such a negative matchup in that key area of the game.

Meanwhile there was nothing to be particularly alarmed about in that San Diego loss to Carolina. LaDanian Tomlinson ran for 97 yards at 4.6 per carry and Philip Rivers threw three touchdown passes without an interception. The defense was a disappointment, but that helps from a mental standpoint here. It creates a “backs to the wall” setting from a talented unit, and now that they know that Shawne Merriman is gone for the campaign they can bring the proper focus to make the adjustments. The DL of Jamal Williams, Igor Olshansky and Luis Castillo has dominated the Bronco OL in those recent routs, and with the latter still trying to build chemistry with Casey Wiegmann at center (Tom Nalen will miss at least another week) and rookie Ryan Clady at RT, we can confidently back the Chargers to control the trenches on both sides of the ball.

We don’t find this price range often when one side controls the line of scrimmage the way that we can project this flow to be.

[TheFade]

Marc Lawrence Playbook

NFL


5* BEST BET
Now that we’ve paid the bills with Buffalo, it’s time to charge things up
with the Jags. Jax boss Jack Del Rio warms up when facing non-division
opposition, going 34-19 SU and ATS in his NFL career, including 17-7-1
ATS as a host. Better yet, he’s 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS at home in Games
One thru Thirteen against a foe off one-win exact. Buffi e enters off last
week’s wire-to-wire home win over Seattle, to which they were quoted
as saying, “Hopefully we made a statement today.” The problem is this
is GAME TWO of the season, a bit early on for a 7-win team last year
to be vouching about its self -proclaimed status. When last we checked
the Bills were averaging 9 PPG in their last nine road games! That won’t
cut it here today. Buffalo falls to 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in games against
opponents off a SU favorite loss here today. Purchase approved.
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo by 20


4* BEST BET
Yet another Game Two matchup involving teams off disparate results
last Sunday. The Joe Flacco era got off to a resounding start when he
combined with Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to become the 2nd NFL quarterback
tandem since 1971 to win debut games on Week One (FYI: Archie
Manning and Jim Plunkett were the others). It should be noted that
NFL teams taking to the non-division road in Game Two off a SU home
dog win are a meager 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS if they were a losing team
the prior year. The Texans will look to their 7-1 ATS mark at home under
Gary Kubiak against opponents off a win to get back on track quickly.
It’s never hard fading rookie QB’s in their fi rst road outing, especially
those with a 63.7 QB rating. We’re deep in the heart of…
HOUSTON over Baltimore by 13


3* BEST BET
Last week’s two biggest upset makers collide in Carolinas. The Bears
avenged their Super Bowl loss to the Colts with a shocking win at
Indianapolis while the Panthers pounced on the Chargers in a stirring
last-play-of-the-game win at San Diego. What to do for an encore?
If you’re Carolina head coach John Fox the plan would be avoid the
dreaded FAVORITE moniker as his team is 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS in its
franchise history when laying points against a .500 or better opponent
in Games 1 thru 6. Bears’ boss Lovie Smith counters at 5-1 ATS as an NFL
head coach when facing a foe off a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SU
and ATS away Now, where else can you fi nd info like that other than
the PLAYBOOK? No deliberating here, It’s Da Bears.
Chicago over CAROLINA by 7




Pointwise Newsletter


NFL Key Plays

2--JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo 30-16
3--TAMPA BAY over Atlanta 26-13
4--San Diego over DENVER 27-17
4--Miami (+) over ARIZONA 19-20
5--SEATTLE over San Francisco 31-13

Last week "1" rated plays were 1-1, now 2-2 on the year
All rated plays last week--College 5-3 (now 8-8 on year)
NFL--3-2


JACKSONVILLE 30 - Buffalo 16 - (1:00) -- Division sandwich for the Jags, who
can't afford any letdown, following LW's embarrassment at Tennessee, when
they allowed 7 sacks, with Garrard throwing a pair of INTs, after just 3 picks all of LY. Throw in a 137-33 RY deficit (Taylor: 18 yds). A far cry from LY, when they wound up with a 29.6 ppg average in their final 12 games. Bills came in as our top NFL Red Sheet play, with 34-10 rout of the Seahawks, & are on a 16-8 spread run, but remember, they averaged just 9.5 ppg on the road LY. Jags are 15-7 ATS at home, 28-11 ATS vs non-division, & 9-2 ATS in ROs lately.

TAMPA BAY 26 - Atlanta 13 - (4:05) -- Improvement of the Falcons is apparent, with Ryan doing very nicely in his debut (9-of-13), including a 62-yd TD pass on his 3rd play. And check Turner with a team record 220 RYs, in romp of the Lions. Far cry from LY's team which allowed 33.1 ppg in its final 7 contests. The Bucs came up lacking on the scoreboard at NewOrleans, but did run for 146 yds, with Graham chugging for 91 yds on just 10 carries, & check Garcia with a decent 24-of-41. Bucs won 37-3 here LY, & are 9-2 ATS off a division
loss. Falcons 4-10 ATS off scoring 28+ pts, & 1-6 in Sept off a SU/ATS win.


San Diego 27 - DENVER 17 - (4:15) -- A year ago, the Chargers travelled to
Denver, & strolled away with a 41-3 win. As a matter of fact, SanDiego has
scored 35, 48, 41, & 23 pts in its last 4 games with the Broncs: covers of 10½, 20½, 40, & 11 pts. Now that's impressive. And since Diego is in a bounceback setup, & on a 9-1 spread run, while catching Denver off its Monday Nighter vs the Raiders, this definitely looks like an extension of that domination. Denver is only 6-18 ATS of late, while SD is 12-3 off a SU loss. Remember, even in LW's loss, Rivers was 3/0, while Tomlinson ran for 97 yds, so still among the elites.


SEATTLE 31 - San Francisco 13 - (4:05) -- Only one way to go when the 'Hawks take the field, & that's with the host squad, which has covered 29-12 of late. Just 85 RYs at Buffalo, with Hasselbeck a terrible 17-of-41. Not to say that 2 key TOs, & a punt return TD didn't help matters. The Niners just continue to flounder, averaging 11 ppg in 12 of their last 14 contests. Gore a decent 96 RYs vs the Cards (6.9 ypr), but just 13 FDs & a 5-0 TO deficit. Would you believe that both teams are 10-1 ATS in Sept off a DD SU loss? But Seattle is 12-2 ATS off a non-division loss, regardless the time or place. Bouncebacker.

ARIZONA 20- Miami 19 - (4:15) -- Have to love the way that Warner keeps on doing it. A solid 19-of-30, with a TD & no INTs in 'Zona's win over the Niners. Check a 37:05-22:55 time edge in that one, as well as 100 RYs for Edgerrin, & 5 takeaways. Cards now at 32.2 ppg in their last 9 games. Dolphins kicked it up a notch, behind Pennington's 26-of-43 showing (251 yds, 2 TDs), but it was just their latest loss (1-19 SU). 'Zona 17-8 ATS lately, but 4-12 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, while Dolphs 15-3 as non-division RDs of 5+ pts. Miami call.

[TheFade]

NorthCoast Power Sweep


NFL:

4* Carolina 31-17
3*Houston 28-13
2*Tampa 27-6
2*New Orleans 24-17

3* Titians U39
3*Bills U37
3* Giants 042
2* Falcons U38
2* Patriots U38



4★ Excellent
3★ Very Good
2★ Good

4* CAROLINA over Chicago - This is the 1st meeting since the 2005 Div playoff game which CAR won 29-21 as a 3 pt AD. The Bears are off LW’s SNF game vs IND & its not known how Orton or the CHI defense fared. CAR is 6-12-1 as a non-div HF & 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in it’s 1st HG. The CAR defense looks to be in mid-season form as they held SD to 17 FD & 316 yds. The DL put above avg pressure on Rivers (did only get 1 sack) but look for a mismatch against the Bears aging OL. The Bears also lack speed at the wideouts, will have rookie Forte picking up blitzes & are still adjusting with Orton at the helm. The Panthers & QB Delhomme showed their character driving 68 yds for the GW TD after allowing two 4Q TD’s. The addition of RB Stewart (53, 5.3) gives them a pair of RB’s to keep opposing defenses guessing. CAR’s 388 yds shows the strides OC Davidson has made in his 2nd season even without WR Smith who will miss this one as well. CAR is still 9-20-1 ATS as a HF but teams that start with B2B road games against a team off a SU win are 4-9 ATS. We won a 4H Key Selection with CAR LW & they picked up a huge confidence building win vs an elite AFC team & we’ll side with them again. FORECAST: CAROLINA 31 Chicago 17



3* HOUSTON over Baltimore - This is the 3rd meeting & the visitor is 2-0 ATS in the series. This is the Ravens 1st dome game in 28 games & BAL is 1-6 ATS in its 1st road game. HOU is 8-1 ATS at home with a 26.7-18.5 avg margin. BAL started QB Flacco LW & he had a decent debut with 129 yds passing (52%) with a 38 yd TD run. The story of the game was how the BAL defense dominated the CIN OL. The Ravens had 21-8 FD & 358-154 yd edges as CIN simply couldn’t execute its offense. Flacco now makes his 1st road start in a dome vs a borderline playoff contender. HOU was thrashed by PIT LW & was down 35-3 with 2:10 left in the 3Q as PIT had a 303-79 yd edge. HOU racked up 14 pts, 14 FD’s & 155 yds in garbage time. Kubiak is 6-1-1 ATS at home vs a foe off a SU win & LW’s results give some line value here. The lack of a run game is a concern (75 yds, 3.8) but HOU is a healthier team with a better QB, #1 WR, with a formidable pass rush at home & are the play. FORECAST: HOUSTON 28 Baltimore 13
OTHER SELECTIONS


2* TAMPA BAY over Atlanta - TB dominated ATL LY sweeping the series by a combined 68-10 with an avg of 295-199 yd edge. TB is 10-4-1 ATS in the series. LW the Falcons stunned the Lions by going up 21-0 at the end of the 1Q with 9-3 FD & 216-64 yd edges. RB Turner gashed the Lions for 220 yds (10.0) rushing & takes on another small, speed oriented defense. ATL had 12 plays of 13 or more yds. They only allowed 1 sack & 2 QBH with a run game that took the pressure off Ryan who only had 13 pass att’s (161 yds, 69% 1-0). TB was in a tough spot LW vs a NO team motivated by Hurricane Gustav but was only outgained by 86 yds & was forced to settle for 2 FG’s on drives into the NO 19 & 15. TB went 5-2-1 ATS at home LY winning by an avg of 23-14. Ryan now has to play in his 1st road game vs a solid TB D in the heat & look for better red-zone performance out of the TB offense as LW’s results give some line value here. FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 27 Atlanta 6


2* New Orleans over WASHINGTON - WAS beat NO 16-10 as a 9.5 pt AD in the last meeting in 2006 with a Joe Gibbs-led team. WAS’s roster is loaded with a Gibbs built NFC East smashmouth offense that is trying to move to a NFC West finesse West Coast offense. QB Campbell looked lost in LW’s game & he was worse than his 133 yds passing (56%) 1-0 ratio shows. He only spread the ball to 5 receivers. TE Cooley, WAS best passing weapon, had 2 passes thrown to him & Campbell didn’t complete a pass until 1:19 was left in the 1H. WAS was outFD 14-4 & outgained 241-51 in the 1H. NO is confident in its power rushing/vertical offense with Brees who has passed for 295 ypg (69%) with a 30-10 ratio in his L13 games. NO’s defense tallied 2 sacks, 6 QBH & 2 tfl while holding TB to just 2 of 12 on 3rd Dns (17%) as the improved DL did its job. While the NO OL is a concern with the amount of pressure Brees was under vs TB they got a big confidence restoring win & look for WAS to struggle again with basic game management. FORECAST: New Orleans 24 WASHINGTON 17


Dr Bob


Paid and confirmed

NFL Best Bet Sides

3 Star Selection
Oakland (+3.5) 17 KANSAS CITY 13

3 Star Selection
San Francisco (+7) 21 SEATTLE 19




NFL Strong Opinions

Green Bay (-3.0) 26 DETROIT 19


Buffalo (+5.5) 20 JACKSONVILLE 21

Philadelphia (+7) 21 DALLAS 23

Indianapolis 19 at MINNESOTA 20 UNDER 43.5