Free Week 3 NFL Picks

[TheFade]

10 *ATLANTA over Kansas City
Late Score Forecast:
*ATLANTA 28 - Kansas City 13
(Sunday, September 21)

Atlanta has turned the page and appears set to make some real progress this season, and one key test will come in this game against the Chiefs. The Falcon running game is much more lively with free agent RB Michael Turner and third year pro Jerious Norwood combining for 373 YR and 6.6 ypc in the first two games. Although Atlanta rookie QB Matt Ryan made some mistakes last week under the pressure of the Buc defense (4 sacks, threw 2 ints. at Tampa), returning home against a team that ranked 28th against the run last season and yielded 300 YR last week against the Raiders, he figures to play more like he did in home-opening win against Detroit. Injury to K.C. QBs Croyle and Huard might leave them with No. 3 Thigpen, and Chiefs 0-9 SU last 9 visiting non-AFC West foes.

TOTALS: UNDER (42) in the Cincy-N.Y. Giants game—Bengals (8.5 ppg) can’t get offense going; G-Men (9-3 “under” last 12 at home) prefer to smother opponents with defense...OVER (44½) in the Detroit-San Francisco game—Lions’ defense resembling a sieve; Detroit has gone “over” 14 of last 18 away!

DENVER (-5½) vs. New Orleans—Uplifting win against Chargers and emergence of WR Eddie Royal to complement Brandon Marshall make Broncos worth a look facing Saint team still dealing with defensive problems.

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SPORTS REPORTER

NFL

*ATLANTA over KANSAS CITY by 6
Shaun Alexander carried the load for five years before the touches caught up to him – what exactly is the Chiefs’ Larry Johnson’s excuse? After carrying the ball 752 times between 2005 and 2006, Johnson has not been the same running back. Is it the toll of so many carries,or the loss in talent on the Kansas City offensive line? It’s a question that needs to be answered and a problem that needs to be solved before the Chiefs can find offensive relevance again. Matt Ryan predictably struggled on the road against a Monte Kiffin-coached defense, but a return to the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome should help this young,but talented offense get back on track. Kansas City was pummeled last week by the strong and powerful Darren McFadden – they should be similarly affected by the Falcons power running game. Atlanta will go out of their way to protect Ryan, especially after he was noticeably exposed by the Bucs, starting the game 1-for-11 with two interceptions. RBs Turner and Jerious Norwood lead the way. ATLANTA 19-13.

*BUFFALO over OAKLAND by 12
The Bills are in a unique situation. They do not play an AFC opponent until Week 8. They can prepare to topple the non-division opponents like dominoes – especially the loose cannons traveling 3,000 miles West to East into Buffalo as this one is doing -- and make those future “important” and “draining” division games a lot less important and draining. The Bills have shown plenty of ability to maximize the talent on the roster in all three phases of the game.At 11-6-1 ATS since the beginning of last year (vs. Oakland’s 7-11 ATS), the Bills have also been undervalued while carrying out their plans. The Raiders have achieved next to no progress with whatever it is you would call their collection of turnover- and penalty-prone players. RB Fargas is hurting, so rookie McFadden might come in and fumble for him. Hey,the Raiders just beat the Chiefs, who have lost 11 in a row! The Bills are 2-0 SU and ATS against 10- and 11-win teams from last season. They do a lot of little things right. The Raiders do a lot of little things wrong, and are sandwiched between more “familiar, important and draining” AFC West rivals Kansas City and San Diego. BUFFALO, 28-16.

*TENNESSEE over HOUSTON by 3
How Houston handles the disruption of the game that was canceled last weekend due to Hurricane Ike remains to be seen. It created an early bye, for a team that probably wanted to get right back out there after losing by 21 points in Week 1. But we thought they’d lose their next game, anyway. If they have any brains, they will put the bum’s rush on Tennessee QB Kerry Collins and knock him out the game early. They drafted pass-rusher extraordinaire Mario Williams #1 three seasons ago, so he might as well start earning his money by making the ultimate negative-yardage play and forcing Tennessee to go to Plan C at the quarterback position. The Titans’ ability to compete strongly and win despite so-so receivers, and an over-the-hill back-up QB and the Vince Young distraction is testament to the coaching skills of Jeff Fisher and staff, and the importance of having quality players and good depth on the offensive and defensive lines. It’s not like Houston hasn’t been manhandled in the trenches before. TENNESSEE, 20-17.

RECOMMENDED
*NY GIANTS over CINCINNATI by 22
The 0-2 SU and ATS Bengals have looked awful and now they face the 2-0 SU and ATS Super Bowl champions, who have acquitted themselves well through the first two weeks of the season. Is there any way the Bengals can compete in the Meadowlands after not showing much signs of life so far? While Cincinnati is probably not as bad as they’ve looked, especially on offense, this is a team that we pegged in the preseason as being overrated and destined for mediocrity – at best. They missed the spread by 18 points last week against a distracted opponent they beat 35-6 last year. Even with their running game showing semblance of life, the passing game was once again unable to get off the ground. Is it too early to question Carson Palmer and his wide receivers? The story is quite the opposite in New York, as Eli Manning has carried over his confidence from last season’s post-season run and Plaxico Burress has emerged as one of the elite receivers in football. Look for the good times to continue for the men in blue against a franchise in disarray. The Giants’ offense, defense and special teams are like Great White sharks, constantly moving forward, impervious to the harm they cause. The Bengals are swimming with the sharks and have to hope the Giants are fat and happy. NY GIANTS, 35-13.

BEST BET
ARIZONA over *WASHINGTON by 9
The Redskins’ offense, perhaps fired up by the inflammatory comments of star running back Clinton Portis, came out and defeated the New Orleans Saints in a showdown of two high flying offenses. Who knew that Jim Zorn’s team had this in them? (Well, the Week 1 forecast told you so even though it might not show immediately, and the Redskins, -1 was last Sunday’s 5-Star winner for the Premier Phone callers.) Being abused by the national media for looking weak against the Super Bowl champions – go figure -- was a nice value-driver. Is Jason Campbell is finally taking that elusive step forward in his development as an NFL quarterback? Well, if we have learned anything from watching this franchise over the years, it is to never take the most recent development too seriously. New Orleans has a famously porous defense and was playing without their top playmaker, Marques Colston. The Cardinals feature some highly skilled offensive players of their own and a defense that is markedly better than the Saints. Arizona came into this stadium last season and allowed only 160 yards to what is essentially the same offensive group, which still has a ways to go. ARIZONA 26-17.

*NEW ENGLAND over MIAMI by 14
Who needs Tom Brady when the defense is this good? Against Gang Green, Matt Cassel took what the defense gave him, not forcing the issue despite protection issues from the offensive line, and the Patriots defense harassed Bret Favre all day and prevented the Jets from establishing any consistency on offense. Facing a Dolphins team sporting the weakest offense of any AFC East team, the Patriots should stick to their conservative gameplan, relying on the existing talent of their team to carry them and utilizing the quarterback position as a means to an end, instead of relying on the quarterback to be the focal point of the offense. Chad Pennington’s familiarity with the Patriots defense is also the Pats’ familiarity with his raggedy arm. Bill Belichick will employ the usual assortment of defensive shifts,zone blitzes and eight men in the box to attack the weaknesses of Chad and the Miami running game that has yet to get untracked. NEW ENGLAND 23-9.

*CHICAGO over TAMPA BAY by 3
Two of the NFL’s most respected defenses face off in Soldier Field as Monte Kiffin’s Tampa-2 unit visits disciple Lovie Smith in his incarnation as coach of the Chicago Bears. The Bucs are dealing with injuries to Jeff Garcia and a feud between Garcia and head coach Jon Gruden that has led to Brian Griese being inserted at quarterback – the same Griese that was deemed not quite good enough to start for the Bears, who have decided to go with Kyle Orton under center, possibly the only quarterback in football worse than either JaMarcus Russell and Tarvaris Jackson, two young QBs who at least have the excuse of inexperience.Normally, neither the Bears nor Bucs can score much on offense, and heavily rely on defense and special teams. Yet they are averaging better than 20 points per game apiece after their opening pair. Chicago may be entering this game with a hobbled Devin Hester, who is pretty much their most dangerous weapon. Both defensive lines will take a beating between the tackles and wear down in the fourth quarter. CHICAGO 19-16.

[TheFade]

*MINNESOTA over CAROLINA by 3
High expectations are almost never met when the team facing such expectations sports as much inexperience at quarterback as Minnesota. Despite featuring one of the best running backs in the sport, the Vikings have been hamstrung by the performance of Tarvaris Jackson.Many other pieces are in place, but the Minnesota faithful is booing Jackson after all blunders,minor or major. This is the type of situation that begets doom for a young quarterback and Jackson is undoubtedly already hearing Gus Frerotte’s footsteps in his dreams. It’s too bad for Vikings fans that it is Frerotte, and not a real NFL quarterback. Steve Smith’s return should open up the passing game for the Panthers, but Carolina will be hamstrung by their inability to run against the stout defensive front seven of Minnesota, which will have the domino effect of affecting their passing offense. Look for the Vikings to finally get on the board behind the excellent running of Adrian Peterson. MINNESOTA 20-17.

*SEATTLE over ST. LOUIS by 3
The Rams stole big-legged place-kicker Josh Brown from the Seahawks and are pointing him at his old team, on his familiar field-goal stomping grounds. But you have to be able to stay close on the scoreboard to employ your kicker. Luckily for them, most recent games in this NFC West season series have been close, with an aberrational, injury-laden blowout engineered by Seattle last season the exception to the rule. The Rams are still healthy, compared to where they were at this point a year ago. Coming off the Eagles and Giants might place St. Louis in the position of having had the two toughest preps in the NFL going into the initial division game. This really is the Rams’ first big game in more than a year. They were already toast in Week 3 of ’07. The chance to be 1-0 in the division is a huge thing for them.For Seattle, it has to be tough to win a game when Julius Jones is the best offensive weapon.St. Louis’ weak secondary catches a break due to the Seahawks’ well-documented injuries at wide receiver, and new-and-confused o-line and running back situation. SEATTLE, 23-20.


*SAN FRANCISCO over DETROIT by 4
The 0-2 SU and ATS Bizarro Lions must exist to help hapless people feel better about themselves.The 49ers might not win any more games than the past few seasons, but at least this season may prove to be entertaining with Mike Martz running the offense. Turnovers and sacks galore, downfield passes by the bushel and no discipline. At least it beats watching the defense for 40 minutes a game. Luckily for San Francisco, the pathetic Lions visit town, and Martz at least knows the personnel that awaits the 49er faithful this week. Look for Martz to contribute his knowledge to a gameplan that surprisingly inhibits the Detroit passing attack from being fully untracked as All-Pro Nate Clements does a good job of controlling Calvin Johnson, a.k.a. Megatron. But who really wants to lay points with the 49ers coming off a hard-fought win vs. division foe Seattle? SAN FRANCISCO 25-21.

BEST BET
NEW ORLEANS over *DENVER by 8
Hard-fought win vs. division rival San Diego, which followed Monday Night win vs. division rival Oakland? Looking ahead to division rival Kansas City? The spot in the schedule makes this a date with regression for the Shanahans, whose defense hasn’t made a big stop vs. a competent opposing offense since Moby Dick was a minnow. The Saints got 24 points on the road against a salty Washington defense last week, and are in a good spot for 30-plus here as long as Drew Brees gets enough air in his lungs at this high altitude and avoids pointing the gun at his own team. After the futile chasing of San Diego’s Darren Sproles on this field last week, the prospect of containing Reggie Bush on this field can’t be too exciting for the Broncos’ defense, which must also deal with a steady pounding from the Saints’ tight ends and the possibility of RB Deuce McAllister on the up-curve. Denver’s week could be spent studying in vain for this invasion by a strange offensive system that the coaching staff hasn’t seen since Sean Payton and crew signed their contracts with Saints owner Tom Benson. New Orleans’ defense won’t win any awards, but like Woody Allen said, merely showing up can be 90% of success. If the defense allows 10% less than the offense scores, New Orleans backers will have more than their necessary cushion. NEW ORLEANS, 31-23.

*PHILADELPHIA over PITTSBURGH by 7
The Eagles work this off a short week, coming off hated division rival Dallas on Monday Night. But Pittsburgh is sandwiched between division games vs. Cleveland and Baltimore.Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin took his foot off the gas pedal in situations like this during his rookie season as head coach, 0-3 ATS in pre-December games when either looking ahead to, or coming off, AFC North rivals. The world is still driving under the influence of AFC superiority vs. the NFC, as evidenced by last season’s Super Bowl result, three Week 1 wins and covers by NFC teams on the road vs. the AFC, and world’s worst favorite Arizona covering –7 in Week 2 vs. Miami. Sober up, America. The AFC isn't playing the NFC. The Steelers are playing the Eagles, and the Eagles are as good or better. PHILADELPHIA, 27-20.

*INDIANAPOLIS over JACKSONVILLE by 7
Offensive line issues have hampered the Colts running game so far and Peyton Manning has not quite looked like himself, although the second half of the Minnesota game was certainly promising (and profitable by a hair!), as was the emerging performance of second-year pro Anthony Gonzalez. Jacksonville has been similarly troubled by injuries to their offensive line,which showed against Buffalo as David Garrard was often running out of a quickly collapsing pocket, but the Jaguars are also suffering from key injuries to their defensive line that has hurt their ability to stop the opposing running game. After a desultory performance against the Vikings, Joseph Addai should be looking to make a statement this week. Even in the best of times, the Jags struggle against the Colts, the class of the AFC South and a thorn in Jacksonville’s side. In these troubled times for the Jags, there’s a very good chance that the Colts ride an upswing to bop their divisional foes once again. INDIANAPOLIS 24-17.

BEST BET
*BALTIMORE over CLEVELAND by 14
Who was it that said, “Give me some time, give me some men, and we’ll fix this thing?” Nobody said that? Then let’s be the first. The Ravens are a double-avenging home team with some new blood that hasn’t been properly accounted for, and value aplenty as long as they don’t put the ball on the ground or give it to the other team. Getting their scheduled trip to Houston canceled last week allowed them all to stay in Baltimore while the Browns – living in a house of cards that you can almost sense they know is going to fall -- were preparing to host the hated Steelers for some nationally televised Sunday night exposure. Nobody got hurt for the Ravens last week, and the coaches were able to pass around the Tostitos and Red Bull while watching the already injury-laden Browns play an “A” game on the big screen. Some key, first-time members of that video party included Jerry Rosburg, for six seasons the special teams coach of the Browns, plus Rosburg’s two-season assistant at Cleveland; offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who faced the Browns while calling the offensive plays for the Dolphins last season, and for San Diego the season before that; and assistant head coach Vic Fangio, who twice prepared Houston’s defensive game plans against the Browns. You want no part of the Ravens when the other team has a good defense. Cleveland doesn’t have a good defense. 40 mph wind gusts in Pittsburgh might make it seem like they do. BALTIMORE, 27-13.

DALLAS over *GREEN BAY by 2
Everyone and their brother – and sister – will point to Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers having moved the Packers’ offense well and “looking good” in mid-game relief of Brett Favre during last season’s loss to the Cowboys in Dallas. That was then, this is now, and Dallas’ maturing 3-4 defense might do a better job against the run, and a better job in coverage with Pacman Jones back there. Or, maybe not. What has Rogers done so far in Green Bay’s 2-0 SU and ATS start? He hasn’t screwed it up, which is more than half the battle for an NFLquarterback. Jon Kitna put 30% of Green Bay’s points on the board last Sunday, and he was playing for the other team. Cowboys’ QB Tony Romo has the tools and support to be more efficient. With Dallas sandwiched off a short week between Philly on Monday Night and Washington upcoming, both home, it’s a tricky spot for them but they won’t take the Packers lightly. DALLAS, 23-21.

MONDAY NIGHT, SEPTEMBER 22
*SAN DIEGO over NY JETS by 4
The Chargers are sandwiched between division rivals Denver and Oakland, and the Jets’ offensive coordinator, Son of Schottenheimer, is bearing down on his former employer, the team that cut pop Marty loose in favor of Norv Turner. But the Chargers are also a desperate and still talented 0-2 SU home team. The Jets have the tools to be in this all the way, with a 3-4 defense to string out and contain LaDainian Tomlinson, an underrated defensive secondary to confound Philip Rivers, and Favre’s arm to drill it to receivers before the Chargers’ pick-happy secondary can get their hands on the piggie. But to win and/or cover, the Jets will more than likely have to overcome some administrative love coming San Diego’s way.Don’t be shocked if there are a few key make-up calls from last week’s striped incompetence which keyed (along with a Merriman-less defense) the loss to Denver. But covering a touchdown without Merriman will be tough. SAN DIEGO, 24-20.

[TheFade]

NFL KEY RELEASES
SEATTLE over St Louis RATING: 2
SAN DIEGO over New York Jets RATING: 3
BUFFALO over Oakland RATING: 4
NEW YORK GIANTS over Cincinnati RATING: 5
DENVER over New Orleans RATING: 5

THE GOLD SHEET

NFL ANALYSIS

KEY RELEASES
HOUSTON by 7 over Tennessee
CAROLINA by 9 over Minnesota

OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Jets-San Diego game

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

ATLANTA 23 - Kansas City 16—A smashmouth fest could be in the offing,with Larry Johnson of the Chiefs opposing Michael Turner (220 YR in opener) of the Falcons. However, K.C.’s rebuilding OL could not spring Johnson (12 for 22 rushing) last week nor could its defense stop the Raiders (300 YR!) Chiefs no pushover on the road, covering 7 of last 9 excursions. But is Matt Ryan the best QB in the game, even as a rookie?
(04-KANSAS CITY -3' 56-10...SR: Kansas City 5-1)

BUFFALO 24 - Oakland 10—With reports circulating that he might soon be fired, Lane Kiffin’s Raiders generated 300 YR in their win last week in K.C., and then he denied accusations of dissension on the team. Meanwhile, outspoken former Oakland DT Warren Sapp, never one to sugar-coat criticism, isn’t too high on Oakland’s chances TY, telling watchers of HBO’s Inside the NFL that the Raiders have “unrealistic ideas about what their people can do.” That comment speaks for itelf. So does the Bills’ 11-3 pointspread record their last 14 at home. Buffalo QB Trent Edwards making few mistakes.
(05-OAKLAND -3 38-17...SR: Oakland 19-17)

Houston 20 - TENNESSEE 13—Even without the unexpected “bye” week and distractions caused by Hurricane Ike, Houston figured to have its hands full with the rock’em, sock’em Tennessee defense that was respectfully referred to as some “animals” by Jag QB David Garrard. But Titans still seeking to develop consistency under new o.c. Heimerdinger’s play-calling, and Kerry Collins is hampered by Tennessee’s WR limitations. Scouts still believe rookie RB Steve Slaton could be a rainmaker for Texans. And, now, well-rested, wellcoached Houston eager to avoid 0-2 start and stay close in AFC South race.
(07-Tenn. 38-HOU. 36...T.23-18 T.39/155 H.12/39 H.27/44/3/294 T.25/42/0/267 T.2 H.3)
(07-TENN. 28-Hou. 20...T.23-17 T.29/153 H.25/119 T.21/31/1/229 H.20/35/1/196 T.0 H.1)
(07-Tennessee -1 38-36, TENNESSEE -3' 28-20...SR: Tennessee 10-2)

NY GIANTS 30 - Cincinnati 10—The situation has become even more distracting than the controversies at the MSNBC political anchor desk for downtrodden Cincy, which has already let a rookie QB (Ravens’ Joe Flacco) and a journeyman (Titans’ Kerry Collins) beat it TY. Now, Bengals faced with supremely-confident Super Bowl-winning QB Eli Manning, off near-flawless effort (260 YP & 3 TDP) vs. another troubled foe, St. Louis. Not to mention highly-athletic Giant stop unit that is affording d.c. Spagnuolo all sorts of flexibility in blitz and coverage packages, hardly what the anemic Cincy “O” (8.5ppg) needs right now. G-Men on 8-0 spread run dating to late LY!
(04-CINCY -6 23-22...SR: Cincinnati 5-2)

Arizona 23 - WASHINGTON 21—Ready to grab the points with Arizona,which appears steady on offense with Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin & Larry Fitzgerald & Co. and possesses a little more bite on defense in 2008 with the return of DE Bertrand Berry, OLB Chike Okeafor, and S Adrian Wilson after injuries LY, plus free-agent DE Travis LaBoy joining the proceedings. Cards have given up only 23 points TY.
(07-WASH. 21-Ariz. 19...A.19-10 A.30/84 W.28/73 A.28/42/2/280 W.12/18/1/87 W.0 A.1)
(07-WASHINGTON -8 21-19...SR: Washington 72-44-2)

NEW ENGLAND 22 - Miami 13—Tom Brady and Randy Moss were way too much for the downtrodden Dolphins LY. Miami is still down in the dumps, but not as deep in the muck as LY. And, of course, Pats adjusting to life without their MVP QB. Thus, will give the Dolphins one more shot, despite last week’s early defensive collapse in Arizona, until we find New England’s new, true balancing point with Matt Cassel (16 of 23, 0 TDs, 0 ints. in first start) at QB.
(07-N. Eng. 49-MIAMI 28...M.25-23 M.30/179 N.22/84 N.22/28/1/359 M.24/37/1/203 N.0 M.1)
(07-N. ENG. 28-Miami 7...N.19-15 N.25/196 M.22/108 N.18/33/2/204 M.18/41/0/133 N.2 M.0)
(07-New England -16 49-28, NEW ENGLAND -22 28-7...SR: Miami 48-37)

CHICAGO 27 - Tampa Bay 20—Will T.B. return to Jeff Garcia (who denies his ankle was so sore as to keep him sidelined last week), or stick with Brian Griese,who was 3-3 as a starter for the Bears in 2007 before a shoulder injury and is now 1-0 TY with the Bucs? Since Chicago QB Orton avoiding TOs (none so far) and T.B. 3-6 SU last 1+ seasons on the road, will side with improved Bears (check status of Devin Hester’s rib injury). Chicago has had a knack of going “over” at home lately (15-4 of last 19).
(06-CHICAGO -13' 34-31 (OT)...SR: Chicago 35-17)

Carolina 22 - MINNESOTA 13—All of the pieces seem to be in place for Minnesota…except at QB (no wonder owner Zygi Wilf risked tampering charges with his interest in Brett Favre during the summer!). But as long as it’s Tarvaris Jackson, have little interest supporting Vikes vs. quality foes, of which rebounding Carolina (2-0 for first time since ’03 Super Bowl year) certainly qualifies. Tough-minded Panthers and physical Oregon rookie RB J. Stewart (77 YR & 2 TDs vs. rugged Bears) not likely to abandon infantry assault as do most Minnesota foes. Jake Delhomme smiling from Charlotte to Greensboro this week with return of home run WR Steve Smith from suspension, especially vs. Minny secondary.
(06-MINNESOTA P 16-13 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 4-3)

SEATTLE 27 - St. Louis 20—St. Louis happy to be facing a fellow troubled team after being clobbered at Philly and by Super Bowl champion Giants the first two weeks. Rams sporting a 5-13 spread mark last 18 games. But at least their top (RB Steven Jackson) & top WR (Torry Holt) are healthy, something injury-plagued Seahawks can’t say. Matt Hasselbeck (2 damaging ints. last week vs. S.F.) misses his favorite targets.
(07-SEA. 33-St. Lou. 6...Se.19-15 Se.32/100 St.17/53 Se.18/35/1/189 St.21/40/3/168 Se.0 St.2)
(07-Sea. 24-ST. LOU. 19...Se.18-17 St.31/104 Se.19/87 Se.21/38/1/215 St.23/37/2/161 Se.1 St.0)
(07-SEATTLE -8 33-6, Seattle -3 24-19...SR: EVEN 10-10)

[TheFade]

SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Detroit 23—S.F. offensive coordinator Mike Martz against the team that fired him after LY, with Jim Colletto hired to develop a more worthy ground game so the Lions can better exploit the talents of WRs Roy Williams & Calvin Johnson. Also, new 49er starting QB J.T. O’Sullivan rode the pine in Detroit LY. So, will this be a game of egos? S.F. prefers to make it more one of defense after the Lions have been ripped for 921 yards & 82 points in the first two games.
(06-San Francisco +6 19-13...SR: San Francisco 33-27-1)

DENVER 31 - New Orleans 24—Bronco offense being sparked by its WRs,with super-quick rookie WR Eddie Royal (14 recs) seemingly the perfect complement to the 6-4, 230 Brandon Marshall, who had 18 catches vs. S.D.And, while 2008 N.O. defense might be improved, it has some holes after three starters missed action in last week’s 29-24 loss at Washington. Deuce McAllister (only 2 carries TY) not 100%. No surprise if this one goes “over,” as Denver “over” 18 of its last 23, while Saints “over” 15 of 21!
(04-Denver -5 34-13...SR: Denver 6-2)

Pittsburgh 20 - PHILADELPHIA 17—With Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulder having passed the test last week at Cleveland, Steelers have a lot going for them early in the season. A healthy RB Willie Parker, two outstanding WRs in Hines Ward & deep threat Santonio Holmes, a fierce and mobile set of LBs (again), and Troy Polamalu’s presence in the secondary. Eagles have not been a dominating home favorite, and they are 11-6-1 “under” last 18 at home.
(2008 Preseason: Pittsburgh -1 beat Philadelphia 16-10 in Pittsburgh)
(04-PITTSBURGH +1 27-3...SR: Philadelphia 46-27-3)

INDIANAPOLIS 23 - Jacksonville 13—After doses of Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson the past two weeks, Indy might finally catch a break against bangedup,makeshift Jacksonville OL that has neither been able to open many holes for Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew nor provide much protection for the harried David Garrard, who’s already thrown as many picks (3) as he did all of ’07. Indy ground forces have gone nowhere yet, but at least Colts have Peyton Manning and a bounce in their step again after dramatic late rally at Minnesota. Jags (only 13 ppg) hard-pressed to outscore competent oppositon until further notice.
(07-Indy 29-JACK. 7...I.24-18 I.33/141 J.27/117 I.23/37/1/243 J.17/36/2/109 I.0 J.1)
(07-INDY 28-Jack. 25...J.27-19 J.31/168 I.25/63 I.20/29/1/279 J.24/29/1/243 I.0 J.1)
(07-Indianapolis -3 29-7, INDIANAPOLIS -6' 28-25...SR: Indianapolis 11-3)

Cleveland 20 - BALTIMORE 16—Cleveland QB Derek Anderson was 2-0 in 2007 vs. the Baltimore team that probably should never have let him go. Now,Anderson owns a significant experience edge over rookie Joe Flacco, who’s making just his second start after facing a Cincy team of few strengths in his first-ever game before being “hurricaned out” at Houston. Cleveland owns the superior receivers, and Browns pleased to be taking on someone their own size after dealing with Cowboys and Steelers first two weeks.
(07-CLE. 27-Balt. 13...B.16-12 B.20/111 C.30/99 B.34/53/1/307 C.10/18/1/204 C.0 B.1)(07-Cle. 33-BALT. 30 (OT)...B.23-22 B.25/128 C.34/117 C.24/38/1/263 B.22/41/2/240 C.1 B.2)(07-CLEVELAND +4 27-13, Cleveland -2' 33-30 (OT)...SR: Baltimore 11-7)it in the irregular meetings of these two, with the host going 14-2 SU the last 27 years. Brett Favre was injured after throwing 2 ints. in LY’s meeting, with Aaron Rodgers (18 of 26, 1 TD) enjoying the best and most extensive performance of his career until taking over this season. Tony Romo had 4 TDP in the game,which the Cowboys led 27-10 midway in the third Q. But that was in Dallas. Have to be impressed with the way Rodgers is already “looking off” DBs and hitting alternate targets. Note: Packers “over” 16 of last 20. TV—NBC
(07-DALLAS 37-G. Bay 27...D.23-20 G.19/124 D.28/105 D.19/30/1/309 G.23/40/2/233 D.0 G.0)
(07-DALLAS -7 37-27...SR: Dallas 15-12)


NY GIANTS 30 Cincinnati 13 - For the 3rd week in a row the Bengals will play a power oriented physical defense & have an added challenge of facing a balanced offense. CIN is 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS on the road & in those 7 SU losses they have been outrushed 159 (4.5) to 75 (3.4) losing by an avg score of 28-20. The poor play of the OL is neutralizing one of the best QB’s in the NFL with Palmer as they simply can’t hold up at the POA. LW in weather conditions that should have shown off the OL’s run blocking abilities they were held to 88 yds (3.1) rushing. The Giants take on a bad OL for the 3rd week in a row & in the 1st 2 games they have allowed 76 yds rushing (3.8), six FD’s on 26 3rd Dns (23%) with 7 sacks earned. Non-conf HT’s before a bye & off a 17 pt SU win are 12-5 ATS vs a foe off a SU loss. Manning looked comfortable vs a bad defense in STL LW & inc playoffs he is avg 226 ypg (62%) with an 13-3 ratio (7-0 SU & ATS). The Giants are just 4-9 ATS as a fav of 7.5 or more & only beat 1 team at home LY by over 13 pts but CIN has been gutless so far & the Giants enter their bye 3-0 SU & ATS.

WASHINGTON 24 Arizona 23 - ARZ beat WAS 21-19 but failed to cover as 8 pt AF’s. QB Warner was playing with a huge brace on his left elbow & ARZ found itself down 14-0 due to 2 int’s. ARZ controlled the game statistically with a 19-10 FD & 364-160 yd edge. They had a chance to win late after recovering
an onside kick but missed a 55 yd FG with :07 left. Unlike the other NFC West teams ARZ travels fairly well & are 8-4 ATS on the road. The Redskins were in a good situation LW with extra rest vs a dome team playing in a heat index of 98˚+. WAS finished with a 25-16 FD & 455-250 yd edge & took of NO’s lack of balance by outrushing them 149 (4.8) to 55 (2.9) with a +8:28 TOP. After a tough WK 1, Campbell passed for 321 yds (67%) with a 1-0 ratio but it was vs a defense without 3 starters. DE Taylor reinjured his knee LW & his status is unknown. ARZ dominated a young MIA team in a long road trip LW in the 1H with a 284-92 yd edge as Warner passed for 247 yds (85%) with a 2-0 ratio. ARZ is a heavy blitz, scheme oriented defense with a QB that fits the system throwing to WR’s that can make big plays at any point in a higher scoring game.

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CHICAGO 23 Tampa Bay 13 - The Bears are the only team to open the season with 2 road games & get a TB team that is 3-12 ATS away vs a non-div foe. After stumbling thru 2007 with injuries & bad QB play the Bears have returned to what they do best with a stout defense, power rushing game & QB play that minimizes mistakes. In the 1st 2 games of the season CHI notched a 351-180 yd edge in the 1H behind a resurgent defense. They limited Manning & Delhomme to 143 yds (48%) with an 0-0 ratio combined in the 1H. CHI’s offense couldn’t close out the game LW vs a good CAR team & gained just 39 yds in the 2H. Despite leading the team to the NFC South title, TB started shopping Garcia around & went with Griese vs ATL. Griese wasn’t very impressive with just 160 yds (58%) with a 1-0 ratio & his 5.2 ypa is something to watch. The defense took advantage of a rookie QB making his 1st NFL road start but was outgained 190-149 after 3Q. While Griese will be helped out by facing his former team here the CHI defense is faster & more aggressive & more reminiscent of the SB defense.

MINNESOTA 21 Carolina 20 - CAR comes in with lots of confidence after 2 late 4Q wins vs a pair of quality foes. MIN was expected to come out & make a strong run for the NFC North title but finds itself 0-2 after blowing a 15-0 lead late in the 3Q with a 263-91 yd edge. From there IND outgained MIN 220-41 & scored 18 unanswered points. No one doubts MIN’s strength vs the run (25 yds 1.3 allowed LW) but they let Manning pass for 311 yds (62%) with a 1-2 ratio. Delhomme is the unquestioned leader of the Panthers & the team rallied around him after the late hit on his slide as they outgained CHI 79-39, forced a trio of 3 & outs with a fumble as the offense scored 14 unanswered points. CAR’s power rushing duo of Stewart & Williams combined for 108 yds rushing (4.3) vs a tough CHI team & WR Muhammad has faced MIN’s DB’s the L3Y. CAR is 19-9-2 ATS as an AD, gets WR Smith back from suspension & we’ll side with the Panthers getting points.

SEATTLE 27 St Louis 23 - SEA swept STL LY including a 33-6 win as an 8.5 pt HF. SEA opened the 2H with a 91 yd KR for a TD & the defense forced 2 TO’s which SEA turned into 10 pts. SEA sacked Bulger 7 times & held STL to 53 yds rushing (3.1). SEA is 7-2 ATS as a div HF. STL is 3-6 ATS on the road. STL’s offense struggled in the 1H once again LW & was lucky to only be down 13-6 at the half. In the 1H of the 1st 2 games STL has been outFD 25-11 & outgained 526-145. Bulger as been limited to 335 yds (59%) with an 1-1 ratio with a poor 5.8 ypa. The defense will be without its best pass rusher in DE Little & it has given up 337 ypg (68%) with a 6-0 ratio (129.2 QBR) with a 9.9 ypa!!! SEA was without its #1 RB, RT, RG & top 3 WR’s LW & found itself in a shootout with SF LW. They lost 2 more WR’s LW (Wallace & Mankins) & its not known if they will return here. Hasselbeck had a tough game (42.5 QBR) due to no healthy WR’s, but the key here is the best def in the division which had 8 sacks vs an avg SF O-line and now take on an STL O-line that is one of the worst in the league and RB Jackson is another week away from being in football shape.

DENVER 37 New Orleans 30 - This is a bit of a flat spot for DEN who is off 2 big division games & have a road game vs KC on deck. DEN is 3-10 ATS as a HF. NO took on WAS without 4 starters (1 off 3 def) & the dome team struggled with a heat index of 100˚. Brees had a rough day passing for 216 yds (67%) with a 1-2 ratio with a 6.5 ypa & he wasn’t helped by a run game that was unable to bring balance (55 yds 2.9). The defense allowed 321 yds passing (67%) with a 1-0 ratio to a QB who only had 133 yds in Wk 1. DEN is off a shootout vs SD after blowing a 31-17 & converting a 2 pt conversion at the end to win. DEN had a 34-19 FD edge & Cutler was impressive with 350 yds (72%) with a 4-1 ratio. The defense/spec teams allowed a 103 yd KR, 48 & 66 yd TD passes but held Tomlinson to 26 yds (2.6) before he left with his injury. DEN needed some breaks to win LW but they catch a depleted NO defense in B2B road games & by going for 2 at the end Shanahan showed how much faith he has in his team which goes a long ways here.

Pittsburgh at PHILADELPHIA - Both teams are off primetime division games & this is the 1st time in 4 years the in-state rivals have faced each other. Each team dominated in week #1 scoring 38 points with PHI outgaining STL by 356 yds & PIT outgaing SEA by 71 yds. There are 3 great matchups in this game. The PHI DL vs the PIT OL, the PIT WR’s vs the PHI secondary & Westbrook vs the PIT LB’s. The advantage goes to all 3 on the offensive side. Another reason to wait and see on this game is that PIT is 7-1 ATS off a SU div loss while PHI is 7-0 off a SU div loss. Without seeing these two playoff caliber teams against a worthy adversary we’ll wait until we get a number & look for a higher scoring game. Our 3H OU’s are a perfect 6-0 100% this year & this game makes that list.

INDIANAPOLIS 20 Jacksonville 13 - It’s a bit surprising to see JAX 0-2 after being expected to mount a serious run at IND for the AFC South title. The Colts narrowly avoided an 0-2 start as Manning rallied
the team to 18 pts & a 220-41 yd edge. Manning is operating behind an OL with 3 new starters & LT Ugoh left LW’s game with an injury. IND is 2-6-1 ATS as a div HF & JAX is 9-3-1 ATS as a div AD. JAX is 8-3-1 ATS in the series. LY at home IND went up 14-0 after officials overturned 2 plays which went against them. JAX cut the lead to 3 late in the 4Q but IND ran out the final 2:47 of the clock. The Jaguars had 27-19 FD & 411-342 yd edges. JAX is off a tough loss to BUF & RB Jones-Drew was KO’d with an ankle injury. JAX has only converted 7 of 25 3rd Dns (28%) in its 1st 2 games & has rushed for 131 yds (3.0) as a team so far. Due to the injury Manning has basically used the 1st 6Q of 2008 as his preseason & DL of the Colts gets a boost with the fast track at Lucas Oil Field. Look for the superiority of IND’s WR’s to be key here & the Colts make up for losing the home opener.

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Dallas at GREEN BAY - The Cowboys are off LW’s MNF game vs PHI while GB overcame blowing a 24-3 lead vs DET LW with 2 int returns for TD’s late. DAL got a good look at Rodgers LY when he came in after Favre’s injury & he passed for 201 yds (69%) with a 1-0 ratio. DAL won 37-27 as 7 pt HF’s with a 414-357 yd edge. DAL noted after the game that they hadn’t studied anything at all on Rodgers prior. Both teams are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball & this game could go a long way in the standings later. The situation does favor GB with DAL off a MNF game vs PHI & WAS on deck.

NY Jets at SAN DIEGO - This is the farthest West the Jets have gone in reg season since facing SD in Wk 2 of 2004. Favre faced SD LY & passed for 369 yds (62%) with a 3-0 ratio but needed a 4Q comeback for a 31-24 win as 6 pt HD. Both teams are off losses to division foes with SD having lost on the foes final play for the 2nd straight week. A hungry SD team now faces a Jets squad with Favre becoming more comfortable each week.


NFL

San Francisco over Detroit 35-24



Power Sweep NFL

4H SAN FRANCISCO over Detroit - Mike Martz takes on the team that fired him after 2 seasons as OC. DET is 4-13 ATS on the road but SF is 3-7-1 ATS at home. Despite the Lions trying to become a run oriented defensive team they have been lit up in the 1H of both games being outscored 42-17 and outrushed 212 (7.6)-54 (3.2). LW they rallied from a 24-3 deficit to take a 1 pt lead halfway thru the 4Q but the defense allowed 10 pts by GB & Kitna was int’d twice in the final 5:17. SF played a good game vs SEA LW & beat them in OT 33-30 as a 6.5 AD despite being sacked 8 times O’Sullivan tallied 321 yds (63%) with a 1-0 ratio & 10.0 ypa. Bruce expands the field & knows the Martz system inside & out (4 rec 38.3 LW) so look for Gore to improve on his running numbers of 61 yds (3.2) from LW. On paper SF’s defense faces a challenge with DET’s WR tandem but the DET coaching staff refuses to play to its strengths. SF has the better overall offense & an under the radar defense headed up by LB Willis & gets their 2nd win here. FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 31 Detroit 20

3H ATLANTA over Kansas City - This game features 2 teams projected to have a top 5 DC in 2009. This could be the only time ATL is a favorite in 2008 & they are 1-4 ATS a HF. KC is 3-10-1 ATS as single digit AD. Even though the Chiefs are playing for 2009 HC Edwards made a very questionable decision LW pulling QB Huard despite only being down 6-0. He inserted 2007 7th RD DC Tyler Thigpen from Coastal Carolina who OC Gailey feels is a better fit athletically for the offense. Thigpen passed for 151 yds (42%) with a 1-1 ratio but KC was shutout for the 1st 56 min of the game. KC was outgained 355-190 & allowed 300 yds rushing (6.4). RB Johnson only had 22 yds rushing (1.8) vs an OAK team that was shredded for 142 yds (4.8) by DEN. KC only had 2 drives cross into OAK territory during the entire game with one 80 yd drive. ATL played TB straight up in the 1st 3Q (190-149 yd edge) but settled for 3 FG’s on 3 drives inside the TB 14. Ryan did look awful going 3 for 18 with 36 yds & 2 ints for the 1st 37:30 of the game but that was on the road vs LY’s #2 defense & now he takes on LY’s #13 defense in a rebuilding mode. Look for ATL to reemphasize the ground game & for Ryan to be more comfortable here & ATL gets an impressive win. FORECAST: ATLANTA 30 Kansas City 10

OTHER SELECTIONS

2H Miami (+) over NEW ENGLAND - The ripple effect of the Farve trade continues as NE takes on a MIA team with Pennington instead of an inexperienced QB. NE is 2-5 ATS hosting a Div foe but MIA is 4-13-1 ATS away in Div play. While both teams have a bye on deck MIA is on the road for the 2nd straight week & the inexperience of the OL & the WR’s was on display LW. ARZ jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the 1Q which forced MIA to abandon the run game that HC Sparano wants to lean on. Pennington only had 45 yds (50%) at the half with 5.6 ypa & was under constant pressure. MIA has only rushed for 121 total yds (3.0) in the 1st 2 wks as they haven’t been able to play with a lead. MIA’s WR’s only have 16 rec’s (11.5) in the 1st 2 games. NE is off a close game vs NYJ in which Cassel had to just manage the game & not make any mistakes. He finished with 165 yds (70%) with a 0-0 ratio & the play calling was fairly balanced (33 run 23 pass). RB Maroney injured his shoulder LW & his status is unknown. We leaned with NE LW as players tend to rally after a key injury but then the team relaxes after a win. We’ll side with a more desperate MIA team getting generous points & not overreact to LW’s win over the Jets & the Dolphins are the Ugly Dog Play (17-9 65%). FORECAST: Miami 13 (+) NEW ENGLAND 20

2H Cleveland over BALTIMORE - CLE is off LW’s SNF game & are 5-1 ATS after facing PIT. BAL is off an unexpected bye week & is 7-3 ATS if they won before it. The extra rest could be just what the team needs for TE Heap & RB McGahee who were ? vs HOU. CLE is a very beat up team & could be without WR Stallworth, OLB Wimbley & both starting Safeties here. BAL’s biggest claim to fame so far is their 17-10 win vs a CIN team that is very soft. Flacco needs the gametime experience & the interruption in their schedule breaks up the momentum BAL had after Wk 1. He only passed for 129 yds (52%) with a 4.4 ypa & his 37 yd TD was when CIN defenders clearly quit on the play. Anderson has faced 2 quality defenses to start they year & now gets a step down in class. This will be an ugly game to watch but we side with the road team here. FORECAST: Cleveland 14 BALTIMORE 10

OTHER GAMES

BUFFALO 23 Oakland 13 - The Bills are 12-5 ATS at home under HC Jauron & in their 9 wins they have avg’d a 26-14 score. BUF is in another solid situation as they catch OAK on its 2nd straight road game after B2B division games with a QB in his 4th career start. Also compounding things for OAK is the public dispute between Lane Kiffin & Al Davis & the team could very well have a new HC here despite shutting out KC for the first 56:00 of the game. OAK took the game out of QB Russell’s hands LW (55 yds 35%) & into RB McFadden’s who rushed for 164 yds (7.8). BUF comes in with 2 quality wins vs 2007 playoff teams beating SEA in all 3 phases in Wk 1 & standing up to JAX on the road in 95˚+ heat. QB Edwards had a great day passing for 239 yds (80%) with a 1-0 ratio but the most impressive stat is his 9.6 ypa. BUF held QB Garrard who passed for 209 ypg (64%) with a 18-3 ratio LY to just 165 yds (61%) with an 0-1 ratio. OAK isn’t as good as it showed LW vs the youngest team in the NFL in KC & BUF is the play after beating 2 quality foes to start the season.

TENNESSEE 23 Houston 13 - The Texans are off an unscheduled bye & it’s unknown where they will practice this week after Hurricane Ike. HOU is 1-5 ATS as a division AD. TEN is 4-0 SU, ATS & O/U vs HOU. QB Collins started the 1st meeting LY which was a 38-36 win as a AE & TEN had a 32-7 lead entering the 4Q with a 20-5 FD & 311-96 yd edges. QB Schaub was KO’d of the game & Rosenfels led HOU with 309 yds & 29 pts in the 4Q as TEN won with its 8th FG. DT Haynesworth returned from a 3 game absence for the 2nd game & TEN KO’d Schaub again. HOU muffed a punt & TEN took over at HOU 29 for the game clinching TD & held off a Rosenfels rally with 2:09 left. TEN rallied around QB Collins & while he only passed for 128 yds (67%) with a 1-0 ratio the game was played in tough weather conditions (25+ mph gusts). TEN outrushed CIN 177 (4.3) to 88 (3.1) & the defense was brutal with lots of pressure & held Palmer to 134 yds (59%) & 2 ints. TEN is a veteran team that knows how to win & Collins experience is a boost to the passing game. HOU will have a lot of off field distractions here & look for TEN to be the much more focused & get the win in a lower scoring game.