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June 11th, 2009 11:06 PM #1
Corporal
service plays for Thursday
Sportsbetcapping-Freddy Wills (Fast Cash Freddy)
granted these plays are after the fact (forgot to post them),but wanted to post them anyway "cause this guy has been on fire!!
A couple of things that happened last game that won't happen here tonight. The Magic won't shoot 62.5% from the field which they did and broke an NBA Finals record. If you don't think the Lakers are ashamed of that stat you are crazy. Second the Lakers still managed to shoot 51.3% from the field. With both of these totals the game still only managed 212 points in all. I think the total will be down tonight with all the $ riding on the Over I think we'll cash here with the under and it will be our 3DIME NBA POD.
Take Under 201.5 as a 3U NBA POD
Lakers have been dogs just 13 times this year. They are 10-3 in those games and I expect them to win this game. Actually like the Magic in Game 2 who would have wont he game if the last second lay up was not missed. In game 3 if Kobe does not miss 5 FT's the Lakers win this game. The Lakers were 16 -26 from the FT line and was the main reason why they lost this game. Tonight this will be fixed.
Take Lakers +2.5 buy 1/2 point
Detroit at W/Sox
Edwin Jackson has been a stud all year just as good on the road as he is at home posting 1.31 away ERA and a 2.86 ERA during day starts! Look for Jackson to continue where Verlander left off last night as Jim Thome is also out of the lineup today. White Sox games have gone under 9 of last 11 games now.
The reason why this reminds me of yesterday's game is the line movement. Edwin Jackson easy favorite right? Of course he opened up as -115 not as much as I thought it would be, but still he is the favorite on the road like Felix was last night. With 71% of the public going on the Tigers according to my source of 42 books the line has dropped in some places to -105 or remained the same. What that tells us is they are expecting a good start out of Gavin Floyd and why not.
Floyd willb e going for a bounce back start against the Tigers at home here today. He was hit hard for 6 runs in 5 IP against the Tigers in Detroit. That's just it his ERA at home 3.00 is not even close to his 7.97 ERA. Fortunately for us he is pitching at home. He has pitched 4 solid games in a row right now with a 1.82 ERA and a 23:8 K:B ratio.
Take Under 8.5 runs 3DIMES (1-5dime scale)
St Louis at Florida
The Bottom Line
Just got confirmation that Hanley Ramirez will be out today. Which is what will make this a play for me. I mentioned Wellemeyer as a cold starter today, but I really think he has a bounce back performance against a Marlins team that his hitting just .228 vs. RHP in their last 5 scoring just 3.16 runs/9 innings.
This along with the fact that the Cardinals seem to be out of their slump scoring 13 last night which was more than they had in their 5 game losing streak combined! Wellemeyer has had success here last year he pitched a 3 hitter giving 0ER in 7.2 IP. He backed that up against the Fish on his own turf with an 8IP 4H 3ER a month later. The Cards are 16-6 in their last 22 against the Fish and I expect them to take this one as dogs.
Andrew Miller has been solid as of late, but his 1.62WHIP in his last 3 games alarms me especially after how well the Cardinals played last night with their bats. They are 11-5 in their last 16 games vs. left handed starter look for them to make it 12-5!
Take Cardinals +106 1DIME Free Play
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