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January 2nd, 2009 02:18 PM #1
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January 2nd, 2009 02:19 PM #2
The Hand of Justice
The Booooj
AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic
Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas
10 Units on Ole Miss (+4) over Texas Tech
Mississippi (8-4) vs. Texas Tech (11-1)- Texas Tech will come into this game with a chip on their shoulder. They still have a bad taste in their mouth from the beating that Oklahoma put on them, they feel their season warranted a birth in a BCS game, and QB Graham Harrell was snubbed on an invite to New York for the Heisman trophy presentation. The Red Raiders have been one of the most entertaining teams to watch all season and were one of the nation’s best teams for most of the season. Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree is in all likelihood playing in his last game at the collegiate level and will look to go out with a bang. Crabtree creates all types of matchup problems for opposing defenses, which creates opportunities for other receivers, and Graham Harrell is a master at exploiting those opportunities. Ole Miss comes in as a team on the rise, and will look to use this game as a springboard to next season. Jevan Snead is one of the country’s top young signal callers and has directed an offense that has gotten progressively better throughout the season. The Ole Miss defense will look to create pressure on Harrell and force him out of his comfort zone. The Rebels defensive front seven matches up favorably with the Texas Tech offensive line and could be the difference in the game. Look for the Rebels to spring the upset. Ole Miss by 4-7.
Auto Zone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
5 Units on East Carolina (-3) over Kentucky
Kentucky (6-6) vs. East Carolina (9-4)- East Carolina comes in winning 6 of their last 7 after a rough stretch in the middle of the season. The Pirate defense will look to take advantage of a Kentucky offense that has struggled of late. Defensive end CJ Wilson should be able to get to QB Mike Hartline who will regain his starting job from the injured Randall Cobb. For Kentucky to have any chance they will have to win the turnover battle. East Carolina QB Patrick Pinckney has struggled at times turning the ball over, but seems to have put those problems behind him. Look for East Carolina to pull away late. East Carolina by 10-14.
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
25 Units on Alabama (-9.5) over Utah
Utah (12-0) vs. Alabama (12-1)- Alabama has suffered a huge loss with the suspension of All American Left Tackle Andre Smith. Utah will no doubt look to attack the Alabama offense on that side to take advantage, that being said, nobody adjusts better than Nick Saban. Utah QB Bryant Johnson is a dual threat who has been at his best in the biggest moments, but will see a defense like none he has seen before. Utah will need to establish the run to give Johnson a chance, but that could be a problem with Terrance Cody in the middle of the Crimson Tide defense. On offense Alabama is a run first team with Glen Coffee and dynamic Freshman Mark Ingram in the backfield. They will look to dominate the line of scrimmage by pounding the ball and set up the play action pass. John Parker-Wilson has been a very good game manager for the Tide all season, and when he needs a big play he has been able to find his outstanding receiver Julio Jones. Utah could keep it close early, but look for Alabama to separate in the 2nd half when talent and depth really start to show through. Alabama by 14-20.
Gimme the loot.
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January 2nd, 2009 02:20 PM #3
The Hand of Justice
Larry Ness
Bowl GOY
Ole Miss made a terrible decision in getting rid of David Cutcliffe after the Rebels went 4-7 in 2003. After all, the Rebels had gone to just FIVE bowls from 1972 through 1996 but from 1999 through 2003, he took the Rebels to four bowl games, including a 31-28 Cotton Bowl win over Okla St in Eli Manning's senior season, the year before Cutcliffe was fired. Ed Orgeron was brought in and he "talked a good game" but delivered a pathetic 10 wins in just three seasons. Fortunately for Ole Miss fans, the school's next coaching move was a gem, getting Houston Nutt. The Rebels responded in a big way to Nutt, beating Florida (the 2006 national champs) 31-30 in Gainesville on Sep 27 and LSU (the defending national champs) 31-13 in Baton Rogue on Nov 22. The Rebels had won just 14 games over the previous four years and after going 0-8 in the SEC last year (3-9 overall), finished 5-3 in league play and 8-4 overall, ending the regular season on a five-game winning streak to nab this bowl invite. Nutt's team was competitive in its four losses too, with each coming by a TD or less and by a total of just 19 points. Jevan Snead (who transferred from Texas to get away from Colt McCoy), became eligible TY and was pretty good (55.7% / 2,470 yards / 23 TDs and 12 INTs). The running game averages 167.5 YPG (4.6 YPC), although no back had more than 644 yards. Dexter McCluster was a WR last year but was used in the team's "Wild Rebel" formation this year, rushing for 558 yards (5.9 per) while catching 38 passes. WRs Hodge (42 catches 16.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and Wallace (35 catches / 20.1 YPC / 6 TDs) both own excellent YPC averages. The Ole Miss defense allows 17.8 PPG and 293.8 YPG and both of those averages rank 14th in the nation. However, the Rebels haven't faced an offense like Texas Tech's. Let me note that Tim Tebow had his only 300-yard game of the years vs Ole Miss (24-of-38 for 319 yards) and the following week, Chris Smelley of South Carolina, a QB who threw just 13 TDs and 15 INTs on the year and has since lost his starting job, had 327 yards passing with three TDs vs the Rebels. I shudder to think what a motivated Graham Harrell might do. The key here is, I believe Harrell, the entire Tech team and coach Mike Leach will ALL be highly motivated for this game. Yes, Tech is disappointed that its 11-1 season (tying the single-season school record for wins previously set in 1953 and 1973) couldn't get them a BCS bowl bid but note that a loss here, would completely ruin Tech's year. Harrell completed 71.5 percent of this throws for 4,747 yards. He has 32 career 300-yard games with 20 of those games being of the 400-yard variety. He enters this game with 15,429 career passing yards, the second-most yards all-time (Timmy Chang of Hawaii is the all-time leader with 17,072 yards) and his 130 TD passes is second to only Colt Brennan (131) on the all-time list. Harrell was NOT even invited to New York as a Heisman finalist. He HAS something to prove and take note of what he's done in his previous two bowl games. He threw for 445 yards with two TDs plus ran for another, as the Red Raiders pulled off the biggest comeback in bowl history in 2006, rallying from 31 points down to beat Minnesota, 44-41 (OT) in the Insight Bowl. He then threw for 407 yards and three scores in LY's Gator Bowl, helping Texas Tech overcome a 17-point deficit in the final four minutes of a 31-28 win over Virginia. In the second halves of Harrell's two bowl games, the Red Raiders have outscored their opponents, 71-13! WR Michael Crabtree had 93 receptions for 1,135 yards and 18 TDs this season, becoming the first repeat winner of the Biletnikoff Award (nation's country's top receiver), after he was the first freshman to win the honor in 2007. Leach is known for his passing attack but the team's 118.9 YPG on the ground (4.7 YPC / 28 TDs), is the highest in the Leach era. Tech's OL averages 6' 6" and more than 320 pounds and has allowed just 12 sacks (Harrell attempted 568 passes!). While Tech doesn't run often, Batch (742 yards / 6.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and Woods (670 yards / 5.0 YPC / 12 TDs) have been amazingly efficient. One also can't overlook the Tech defense, which also produced a Leach era-best, allowing 133.5 YPG on the ground (3.9 YPC). I am a big fan of Houston Nutt, but this is a tough matchup for him. The 'public' and 'wise guys' are "all over" Ole Miss in this game but I see no way the Rebels can trade scores with Texas Tech. Entering its Nov 22 game at Norman, Texas Tech had scored at least 30 points in 14 straight games but as we all know, the Red Raiders were never in that game, losing 65-21. Tech entered that game No. 2 in the nation but that one loss crippled the team's chances for a shot at the national championship game and made them a long shot to even appear in the Big 12 title game (they didn't). Tech's "let down" game came the next Saturday in a home game with Baylor and the "after effects" of the Oklahoma loss were in evidence. Tech was sloppy and when the Bears scored on their opening drive of the third quarter, Tech was down 28-14. However, showing what he was made of (playing with a injury to his throwing hand and without Crabtree), Harrell led the Red Raiders to three second-half TDs and a 35-28 win. Tech enters the game averaging 536.2 YPG and 44.6 PPG (both figures rank 4th in the nation). After scoring 35 points vs Baylor, Tech has now scored 30 or more in 27 of its last 30 games and while the Ole Miss 'D' has been very good this year, remember that Tebow and even Chris Smelley, 'lit them up.' Tech's a much better program than most people realize. The Red Raiders have now posted 16 consecutive non-losing seasons and are the ONLY school in the Big 12 to have posted consecutive winning seasons, despite playing in the much tougher South Division (with Okla, Okla. St, Texas and Tex A&M). As for Mike Leach, he's now led Tech to a bowl game in all NINE of his seasons at Lubbock and the man who had "any number of chances" to capitalize on Tech's tremendous 2008 season, decided to stay put with the Red Raiders. This will be Tech's 32nd all-time bowl but the Red Raiders are just 10-20-1. However, after losing in his first two bowl appearances with the Red Raiders, Leach has won FIVE of the last six. Tech has never played in a BCS bowl and in three previous Cotton Bowls (the school's biggest bowl stage to-date), the Red Raiders have gone 0-3, losing in games following the 1938 and 1994 seasons, plus following the 2005 season under Leach, when Alabama kicked a game-winning 45-yard FG with 0:00. That was then and this is now. Harrell took over at QB the last two seasons and I've already given you his bowl resume. This time around, no second-half dramatics will be necessary, as the Red Raiders win "in style!"
Gimme the loot.
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January 2nd, 2009 02:20 PM #4
The Hand of Justice
Bowl Game of the Year Texas Tech
Las Vegas Insider- NCAA Football
Alabama has a great bowl history, as this Sugar Bowl appearance marks its NCAA-leading 56th bowl game (31 wins, including an 8-4 mark in 12 previous Sugar Bowls). In fact, the Sugar Bowl has been very good to Alabama, last appearing after the 1992 season, when its 34-13 win over then-No. 1 Miami-Florida capped a 13-0 season and gave head coach Gene Stallings his only national title. Legendary coach Bear Bryant won national titles at Alabama after Sugar Bowl victories following the 1962, '78 and '79 seasons. While Utah can't match Alabama's longtime bowl success, the Utes became the first non-BCS school to crash the BCS bowl 'party' back in 2004, when Urban Meyer's team (led by QB Alex Smith) capped a 12-0 season with a 35-7 win over Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl. This year's Sugar Bowl will be Utah's sixth straight bowl appearance and with Boston College losing on Dec 31 to Vandy in the Music City Bowl, the Utes' seven-game bowl winning streak is the longest active one in all of college football. Utah (12-0) is the only remaining unbeaten team in CFB in 2008, now that Boise State lost to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl and with 13 consecutive wins (going back to LY's 35-32 bowl win over Navy), the Utes also stand alone with the longest active winning streak in CFB (Alabama had won 13 straight as well, before losing 31-20 to Florida in the SEC championship game). Just how good are the Utes? They are clearly better than LY's Hawaii team which was dominated by Georgia 41-10 in LY's Sugar Bowl but I don't think they are anywhere near as good as their previous BCS bowl team in 2004 or the Boise St team which finished 13-0 in the 2006 season, with that dramatic and memorable 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Brian Johnson (68.3 percent / 2,636 yards / 24 TDs and 9 INTs) is a quality QB and a "winner" but his receivers corps is rather mediocre. Utah owns nice balance on offense with 236.8 YPG passing and 168.4 YPG (4.3 YPC and 23 TDs) on the ground. Again however, the team's main two running backs are rather ordinary, with Asiata (666 YR / 5.0 YPC / 11 TDs) and Mack (533 YR / 4.5 YPC / 3 TDs) hardly distinguishing themselves. Utah went 4-0 in games decided by three points or less this year, plus won at Air Force 30-23, by scoring the game-winning TD with just 58 seconds left. Utah caught Oregon St in the very first game after its stunning upset of USC (a great spot for the Utes), yet trailed 28-20 late, before scoring a TD (plus a two-point conversion) with 1:29 left, then winning the game on a 37-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. In a Thursday night game at home vcs TCU (the team I feel is the best non-BCS conference team), the Utes did little or nothing all game and only missed opportunities by TCU (two INTs and two missed FGs were 'killers'), kept Utah alive. Johnson was brilliant in a last-minute 80-yard TD drive (completed 7-of-9 passes for all 80 yards), that gave Utah a 13-10 win. However, let's note that the Alabama defense the Utes face is very similar to TCU's, which held the Utes in check all game (had gained less than 200 yards before that final drive) and held Utah's running game to 45 yards on 25 attempts (1.8 YPC). No one stopped the run better than TCU this year, but Alabama's 'D' was no slouch, allowing 78.8 YPG (2.8 YPC) and only four rushing TDs. It ranks third in total D (256.9 YPG ) and sixth in scoring (13.0 PPG). Utah does not have the speed and play-making ability on offense to score much vs Alabama, which held NINE of its 13 opponents to 14 points or less. The Alabama offense is hardly prolific but it made one or zero turnovers in 11 of its 13 games. JP Wilson is a mediocre QB (57.8 percent / 1,655 yards / 6 TDs and 5 INTs) but he doesn't make mistakes. The running game is very good, averaging 196.5 YPG (4.8 YPC) with 32 TDs. Coffee has 1,347 yards (6.1 YPC and 10 TDs) and with 125 yards in the Sugar Bowl, can break Bobby Humphrey's single-season school rushing mark. Ingram is more than just a by-stander in the backfield, adding 702 yards (5.2 YPC) and 12 TDs. Other than Jones (51 catches / 16.6 YPC / 4 TDs), there are no pass-catchers of note but Alabama is the perfect example of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. Saban's had his team properly prepared for every big test this year. Alabama met then-No. 9 Clemson in its season-opener in the Georgia Dome and led 23-3 at the half in a 34-10 win. At then-No.3 Georgia on Sep 27, the Tide rolled to a 31-0 halftime lead "between the hedges," in a 41-30 win and the Tide earned a hard-fought 27-21 OT win in Baton Rogue over LY's defending national champs, after LSU jumped to a 14-7 ead after the first quarter. In the SEC title game against Florida, the Gators scored on the their first possession to lead 7-0 but Alabama outscored the Gators 20-10, taking a 20-17 lead into the fourth quarter, before Tim Tebow played arguably his best quarter of football in his career. Now, Saban has a chance to validate the season by bouncing back from that loss with a convincing win over a very beatable foe. Anything less, will leave Alabama fans wondering just how good this team is. I for one, think it's pretty good and that this Utah team would have been lucky to finish .500 playing in the SEC.
Las Vegas Insider on Alabama
Gimme the loot.
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January 2nd, 2009 02:21 PM #5
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January 2nd, 2009 02:22 PM #6
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January 2nd, 2009 02:23 PM #7
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January 2nd, 2009 02:24 PM #8
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January 2nd, 2009 02:25 PM #9
The Hand of Justice
Ben Lewis
5 units E. Carolina
SIXTH SENSE
1% MISSISSIPPI +5
Wunderdog
Eastern Carolina vs. Kentucky
Pick: 2 units Kentucky +3
Pick: 3 units OVER 41
East Carolina was the surprise of the country in the early going. They beat Virginia Tech and West Virginia in back-to-back games to open the season - vaulting them into the national spotlight. Things went downhill fast after a third win over Tulane. The great start was met with three-straight painful losses where they gave up 106 points to teams that would go on to earn a Bowl bid. They finished strong, but nowhere near the team they were in those first two. Two trips into BCS conference territory resulted in two losses by 21 points. Kentucky met a similar fate as they opened 4-0, toppling Louisville. In game five, they suffered their first loss to a top-rated Crimson Tide team by just three points on the road. They also hung tough scoring 38 against a good Georgia defense, dropping the game by four, and were even with South Carolina late until losing by seven. Outside of their big games to open the season East Carolina hasn’t played any big teams and struggled in too many games where they should have dominated. Kentucky played a much more difficult schedule and almost broke through against top teams. Kentucky hasn't shown a big offense, but against teams with winning records they seem to rise up, as all four of their last games against teams with winning records have gone OVER. I think they are battle tested, and East Carolina has not been anywhere near the team that took the field in the first two weeks, so I'll back Kentucky and the OVER here.
Game: Utah vs. Alabama
Pick: 3 units OVER 45.5
This is a well-balanced Utah team that has scored 30 points or more in nine games this year. The same can be said for Alabama that has scored 29 or more in eight games on the season. The Tide defense has been tough all season, but a closer look shows few good offenses on the schedule. Utah has the 32nd best offense in the country. ‘Bama has played just three teams in the top 40 on offense all season. Those three teams all got to 20 points and averaged 23.7 points per game against the Tide, so Utah is going to score here. Utah stepped into BCS conference games just twice on the season and allowed 28 to Oregon State and 23 to a not-so offensive Michigan team, so I see the Tide getting their points in this one as well. This total is set too low, so I'm backing the OVER here.
Score
400 Ala
300 Miss
RAS
Cal St Northridge -6 1 unit
Long Beach State -3.5 1 unit
Gimme the loot.
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January 2nd, 2009 02:26 PM #10
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