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January 5th, 2009 03:20 PM #1
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January 5th, 2009 03:21 PM #2
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January 5th, 2009 03:22 PM #3
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January 5th, 2009 03:23 PM #4
The Hand of Justice
SPORTS ADVISORS
FIESTA BOWL
(10) Ohio State (10-2, 5-6 ATS) vs. (3) Texas (11-1, 9-3 ATS) (at Glendale, Ariz.)
Texas, which had its BCS championship hopes dashed on a tiebreaker ruling in the Big 12 South, will instead settle for a Fiesta Bowl contest at University of Phoenix Stadium against Ohio State, which finished second in the Big Ten.
Following their last-second 39-33 loss at Texas Tech as a 3½-point chalk, the Longhorns finished the season on a 3-0 SU run (2-1 ATS), winning the three games by a combined score of 129-37. They capped the year with a 49-9 bashing of instate rival Texas A&M as an overwhelming 35-point home chalk on Nov. 27. QB Colt McCoy (23 of 28, 311 yards, 2 TDs) led a turnover-free offense that day, and RB Cody Johnson (eight carries, 102 yards, 2 TDs) paced a ground game that rolled up 216 yards as Texas finished with a whopping 536-245 edge in total yards. The Aggies were saddled with minus-24 yards rushing.
The Longhorns tied Oklahoma and Texas Tech for first place in the Big 12 South, but the Sooners beat out both squads in the BCS standings, which the conference used as the tiebreaker – even though Texas beat Oklahoma outright 45-35 as a seven-point pup in a neutral-site game in Dallas in October.
Ohio State won and covered in its last three games, scoring 30 points or more in all three, including a 42-7 whitewashing of archrival Michigan as a 20½-point home chalk to end the regular season. True freshman QB Terrelle Pryor (5 of 13, 120 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was a bit uneven, but he got all the help he needed from a rushing attack that netted 232 yards. RBs Chris Wells (15 carries, 134 yards, 1 TD) and Daniel Herron (8 carries, 80 yards, 2 TDs) paved the way, and the Buckeyes outgained the Wolverines by an eye-popping 416-198 margin.
These teams played a home-and-home set in the 2005 and 2006 seasons, with the road team winning and covering in both games. In the 2006 contest, Ohio State rolled 24-7 in Austin as a three-point pup, avenging a 25-22 loss in Columbus as a 1½-point home underdog during its 2005 national championship season.
Texas is playing in its third BCS bowl (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS), with its most recent effort a thrilling 41-38 win over Southern California in the Rose Bowl following the 2005 season, which gave the Longhorns the national title. Coach Mack Brown has led Texas to bowl games in each of his 10 years at the school (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) and is 11-6 (8-9 ATS) for his career in bowl games.
Ohio State is making its seventh BCS bowl appearance (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS), but the Buckeyes have been blown out in the national title game each of the past two seasons, suffering a 41-14 loss to Florida two years ago and a 38-24 setback to LSU last year. This will be Ohio State’s fifth Arizona bowl trip since 2002, and they’ve gone 3-1 SU and ATS in the previous four, including claiming the national title with a 31-24 upset of Miami as a 12-point underdog following the 2002 regular season. Coach Jim Tressel is 4-3 SU and ATS in postseason play since arriving in Columbus.
Texas rates among the top 10 in the country offensively in three major categories: points (43.9 per game, fourth), total yards (476.4, ninth) and passing yards (299.5, 10th), and the Longhorns also put up a healthy 176.9 rushing ypg (34th). QB Colt McCoy completed a sterling 77.6 percent of his passes for 3,445 yards with 32 TDs and just seven INTs, and he also led the team in rushing with 576 yards and another 10 scores. Texas had four players rush for at least 330 yards.
Defensively, the Longhorns allow 339.9 ypg (50th), but they rate second nationally in rushing defense (73.6 ypg) and 18th in points allowed (18.6). Defensive end Brian Orapko has a team-leading 10½ sacks.
Ohio State has one of the nation’s better rushing attacks (191.6 ypg, 26th), but the Buckeyes level off from there with per-game averages of 28.2 points (42nd), 148.1 passing yards (105th) and 339.7 total yards (79th). Wells has rushed for 1,091 yards on 191 carries (5.7 ypc) and eight TDs, despite missing three games with a foot injury. Pryor, who took over the starting role in the fourth game, completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,245 yards, with 12 TDs and four INTs, and he also ran for 553 yards and six scores.
The Buckeyes field one of the nation’s top defenses, allowing per-game averages of 13.1 points (sixth), 114.9 rushing yards (20th), 164.3 passing yards (seventh) and a stingy 279.2 total yards (seventh). Linebacker James Laurinaitis led the way with 121 tackles.
The Longhorns are on ATS sprees of 10-3 overall, 6-0 in non-conference play, 6-1 at neutral sites, 7-1 after a spread-cover, 8-2 after a SU win and 9-3 as a chalk, but they are also on ATS hiccups of 0-4 against the Big Ten and 2-6 as a bowl favorite.
The Buckeyes have cashed in four of their last five games and are on a 4-1 ATS run against Big 12 foes, but they also carry negative pointspread trends of 0-4 outside the Big Ten, 2-8 following a SU win of more than 20 points and 1-4 on Mondays, and they are on an 0-4 SU and ATS slide against Top 10 opposition.
The over for Texas is on rolls of 6-2 at neutral sites, 6-2 in bowl games and 12-4 against winning teams, and the over for Ohio State is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on grass, 5-1 in January and 5-2 in postseason play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(11) Georgetown (10-2, 5-3 ATS) at (7) Notre Dame (10-3, 4-4 ATS)
Georgetown and Notre Dame, both of whom are coming off upset losses in Big East play, get together at the Joyce Center in South Bend, Ind., in the only regular-season meeting between the schools.
The Hoyas, playing the second of three straight games against Top 10 opponents, got steamrolled by unbeaten and third-ranked Pitt on Saturday, falling 70-54 as a 3½-point home favorite to end a seven-game SU and four-game ATS winning streak. Georgetown, which knocked off second-ranked UConn 74-63 as a 6½-point underdog a week ago tonight, shot just 35.3 percent from the field (18-for-51) against Pitt and got completely destroyed on the glass (43-17). Prior to Saturday, the Hoyas had scored at least 69 points in eight consecutive contests.
Notre Dame went to St. John’s on Saturday riding a four-game winning streak and laying 8½ points, but the Irish got tripped up, 71-65. The Irish made just 43.5 percent of their shots, going 4 of 17 from 3-point range, and they, too, were dominated on the glass (40-27). Notre Dame matched its second lowest point output of the season against the Red Storm, finishing way below its season averages for points per game (80.8) and field-goal offense (46.7 percent).
Georgetown is on a five-game winning streak in this rivalry (4-1 ATS). In last year’s lone battle, the Hoyas rolled to an 84-65 win as an 8½-point home favorite. Even though Georgetown has covered three of the last four against the Irish as a favorite, the underdog is on a 10-4-1 ATS roll in this series.
Notre Dame is 0-4-1 ATS in it last five games played on Monday, but it is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in its last four after a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Hoyas are on ATS rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 17-5 after a SU defeat and 5-1 after a non-cover, but they’ve failed to cash in four straight games following a double-digit home loss.
Georgetown is on under streaks of 4-1 overall, 13-4 on the road, 38-17 in Big East play, 5-0 on Monday and 18-10-1 after a SU defeat. Conversely, Notre Dame is on over stretches of 17-8 overall, 7-3 at home, 19-7 in conference play, 7-2 on Mondays and 20-9 after a SU defeat. Also, the over is 9-4 in the last 13 series meetings between these foes and 5-1 in the last six clashes in South Bend.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
San Antonio (22-11, 15-17-1 ATS) at Miami (18-14, 13-18-1 ATS)
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
Gimme the loot.
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January 5th, 2009 03:23 PM #5
The Hand of Justice
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Miami Heat
The Heat returns home to host the Spurs in a non-conference clash at American Airlines Arena Monday evening in a mini two-game getaway for San Antonio. Miami has performed admirably under rookie head coach Erik Spoelstra, especially in underdog roles while the Spurs have underachieved as chalk this campaign. Look for the Heat to improve to 5-0 ATS in this series here tonight.
Jim Feist
INDIANA PACERS at DENVER NUGGETS
Take: OVER
Reason: The Pacers defense will never be confused with the Celtics, that's for sure. The Pacers are dead last in the Central Division of the Eastern Conference. Their defense, or lack thereof, has been one of the big problems for this club. The Pacers can score points, averaging nearly 103ppg and ranking 6th in the NBA. But they give them up in bunches too, allowing nearly 105ppg and ranking 17th in the league. And, it likely won't get any better tonight against the Nuggets, the league's 4th highest scoring team. The Pacers haven't held an opponent under 100 points in their last six straight games and have seen 10 of their last 12 games go OVER the total. As for the Nuggets, their defense is ranking in the bottom third of the league and they have seen their last seven games go OVER the total. Looks like another shootout tonight in the Mile High City. Take the over and enjoy the show.
Dave Cokin
Old Dominion @ William & Mary
Play: Old Dominion -3'
The Monarchs will try and earn a split of their weekend road trip after losing a tough one point decision at Georgia State. I think they'll find William & Mary a softer spot. ODU should be all out here off the loss, plus this is the team that sent them home early in last year's CAA Tourney. Old Dom is no great shakes this year, but they're the better team here and in a spot where they figure to win. I'll give the points.
Tom Freese
Golden St at Utah
Utah is 16-5 ATS at home off two straight games where they had 26 or more assists and they are 40-20 ATS their last 60 games as home favorites. The Jazz are 12-2 ATS vs. Pacific Division teams and they are 7-0 Straight Up and 5-1-1 ATS their last 7 home games vs. the Warriors. Golden St is 7-15 ATS on the road this year and they are 2-12 ATS away when the Total is 210 or higher. The Warriors are 3-12 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in two straight games are 1-9 ATS on the road when playing their second game in five days. PLAY ON UTAH -
Gimme the loot.
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January 5th, 2009 03:24 PM #6
The Hand of Justice
BRAD DIAMOND
Play on: San Antonio over Miami
Of late the Spurs (22-11)have started to put up more solid individual numbers as documented by Tony Parker hitting at 21.5 points per game, Duncan grabbing 10.3 rebounds, in addition Parker dealing 6.8 assists. At this writing SA has won 8 of the last 9 SU. Miami has looked good this season playing great energy as Dwyane Wade (28.8)is once again carrying the scoring load. Still this is a very difficult spot for the home standing Heat are 4-0 ATS the last four outings vs. SA. The Spurs will come in fired up looking to avenge a 99-83 loss last time they met.
Jimmy The Moose
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers
Prediction: New York Rangers
Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight games and 7 of their last 10 overall. The Penguins have lost their last 4 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Pittsburgh is 1-9 in their last 10 games played coming off 1 day rest between action. The Penguins have lost 6 of their last 7 games played vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers have lost 4 of their last 5 but will take this one. The Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Penguins have lost 7 of their last 8 trips to New York. Play on the New York Rangers -.
Scott Spreitzer
Loyola MD at Niagara
Prediction: Niagara
I have been on the Purple Eagles quite a bit this season and have been rewarded repeatedly. The team is 11-3 SU, 12-2 ATS so far this season. They're loaded up-and-down the roster and led by a sensational and underrated guard in Tony Lewis. He's definitely the floor-general and he's been able to get several players involved. Lewis is throwing down about 17 ppg. Lewis and G/F Bilal Benn are also outstanding on the defensive end where the two combine for 5 1/2 steals per contest. Benn has been playing his best basketball over the past couple of weeks with a few double-doubles to show for it. Meanwhile, 6'10 center Benson Egenmonye has become the force on both ends that coach Joe Mihalich had hoped for. The team is deeper in talent than most MAAC entries, and six players are scoring between 7.9 and 16.9 per game. Loyola-Maryland is in trouble in this one. They don't have the height to match Egenmonye, and they are going to have a tough time keeping Niagara off the boards with 6'8 Isaac Reid having to do all of the inside work, almost by himself. The Greyhounds (5-9, 5-6) are not a deep team and have really struggled in quick turnarounds. They're 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS when playing with less than two days rest...and they just faced Canisius on Saturday. They're on the wrong end of an 82.4 to 60.2 average in those quick turnaround games. Look for Niagara to continue their excellent season, both SU and ATS on Monday. I'm laying the points with Niagara.
Brian Hansen
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers
Prediction: New York Rangers
The Rangers are coming off a 2-1 road loss but I expect them to be sharp tonight at home against the visiting Penguins. Pittsburgh is coming off an embarassing 6-1 home loss by the hands of the Panthers and I look for them to be sluggish again this evening. Look for the RANGERS to improve to 8-3 their last 11 vs. division opponents!
Gimme the loot.
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January 5th, 2009 03:24 PM #7
The Hand of Justice
John Fisher
Ohio State vs. Texas
Play: Ohio State +8
Not sure how Longhorns mindset will be here. One thing for certain is that Ohio State looks to be focused for this contest. Finally, most of their players will be healthy for this contest. Ohio State is a PROUD Senior crew that plays terrific defense and has the speed on the edges to compete with Texas. Look for this to be a better game than expected. The key here will be for OSU not to get in 3rd and long situations. Pryor does not have the poise as does QB McCoy of Texas. His legs will create problems if they are in 2nd and 3rd and short situations. Look for this game to go down to the wire. Take the points in this contest. Texas scores late to take victory. Texas 30 OSU 24
Sports Gambling Hotline
Ohio State vs. TEXAS - at Glendale
First of all, this field in Glendale is one of the very best in all of football, and it is not surprising that in the NFL this past weekend, the Falcons-Cardinals game went OVER the total. The field is fast, and that should equate to plenty of points on the scoreboard come the 4th quarter of this game.
Ohio State has played OVER the total in 5 of their last 7 bowl games, while Texas has play UP in 6 of their last 8 bowl games.
Texas has also gone OVER at a 12-4 clip when they play teams with a winning record.
Finally, take a look at what the teams have done to get here, as Ohio State has scored 42-points or more in 3 of their last 5 games, while Texas has put up 33-points or better in 11 of their 12 games for the year!
We have to believe that this total will tumble by the early stages of the 4th quarter.
Play on the OVER.
5♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Kent +8 at TEMPLE
Not so sure I want to back the Temple Owls right now, especially minus this big number.
Fran Dunphy's team has hit the skids, losing their last 3 both straight up, and against the spread. 2 of the losses came by double-digits, so you would think that laying close to double-digits tonight is not the wisest move, as the G-Man can see the Owls stopping the bleeding, but not doing so in convincing fashion.
Kent brings a 7-6 mark into this one, and while it is true they just played Hampton, and Shawnee State to "pad" their mark a little, I have to believe those last 2 "practice" sessions will bode well when playing at Temple tonight.
Look for this game to stay fairly close all the way, making the Golden Flashes plus the points the play in the City of Brotherly Love tonight.
1♦ KENT
Jeff Benton
Georgetown at NOTRE DAME -2
Scored yet another free winner Sunday, as the Lakers, courtesy of a dominating second half, blew out Portland. I’m now on a 34-16 run with freebies, and we’ll look to continue that streak Monday as we switch to College Hoops and back Notre Dame minus the points against Georgetown.
We’re getting some pretty good line value here, thanks to the Fighting Irish’s tank job at St. John’s on Saturday. Facing an inferior opponent that was coming off three straight double-digit losses to Virginia Tech, Miami (Florida) and Providence, Notre Dame got caught in the classic look-ahead situation and stumbled 71-65. It was just the third time all year that the Irish had failed to score at least 74 points and just the fourth time they had been held below 81 points.
Now, they do run up against one of the nation’s better defensive teams in Georgetown. However, the Hoyas got exposed a bit in Saturday’s 70-54 home loss to third-ranked Pitt, as they couldn’t put the ball in the basket (the missed 33 of 51 shots) or control it when they did miss (they managed just 17 rebounds to 43 for the Panthers). This is also an incredibly brutal spot for G-Town, which started Big East play with last Monday’s game at second-ranked UConn (74-64 upset win), then played the third-ranked team in the country on Saturday and now hit the road again to face the No. 7 team in the land.
In fact, the Hoyas are in the midst of a stretch of playing five teams in the Top 13 in a six-game stretch (they have current #13 Syracuse and #5 Duke, along with Providence, between now and Jan. 17). Conversely, while they Irish have faced a pair of Top 5 opponents in Texas (win) and North Carolina (loss), they haven’t played a ranked foe since the day before Thanksgiving.
Notre Dame is in a real revenge spot here (four straight losses to Georgetown), and I think it got a much-needed wake-up call with that loss at St. John’s and will show up raring to go against the Hoyas. After all, the Irish have been a strong bounce-back team of late (5-1 ATS in their last six games after a defeat and 4-0 ATS in their last four after an ATS loss). Lay the small price with the home team in what should be a very entertaining contest.
3♦ NOTRE DAME
Bobby Maxwell
Indiana at DENVER -8'
The Nuggets are still playing some great basketball and they have won three straight and five of their last six. Now they are at home against a bad Indiana team and we're going to go ahead and lay the chalk with the Nuggets to win this one by 15 at least.
Denver was crushing a very good Hornets' squad on Saturday 77-51 but had to survive a late rally by the Hornets and eventually won the game 105-100. Six Nuggets reached double figures in scoring, led by Carmelo Anthony's 22 points.
They are 12-4 at home this season and this is game two of a seven-game homestand. The Nuggets have won five of the last six meetings with the Pacers and Anthony has averaged 30 points a game in his last seven against Indiana.
And this is the start of a five-game road trip for the Pacers who are just 5-12 on the road this season, and that includes winning three of the last four.
Denver has covered the number seven of the last eight meetings with Indiana and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 against the Eastern Conference. The Nuggets are also 5-1 ATS in their last six after getting a day off and 19-7-1 ATS as a favorite of 5 to 10 points. Let's play Denver to win this one and get us the cash.
4♦ DENVER
Gimme the loot.
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January 5th, 2009 03:25 PM #8
The Hand of Justice
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the points with Wofford.
South Carolina is a very talented and dangerous team this season. The Gamecocks will not be the doormat of the SEC like in some previous seasons because they return a ton of talent with Devan Downey, Zam Frederick, Dominique Archie and others. But Wofford is not that bad at all and the 'Cocks are in a tough tough spot today.
South Carolina just had a great upset win in Waco over a quality Baylor group on Friday night. Sure that will instill some more confidence for Darrin Horn's 10-2 squad but now getting up for a 4-5 team named "Wofford" is going to be difficult for the SEC team.
But don't be fooled as the Terriers are not terrible and better than their below .500 record indicates. Yes I'm not a fool and did see they just lost to Navy and were blown out by 50 against Clemson earlier in the season but these guys also took Georgia to overtime on the road in a one point loss and beat what is a bad Air Force.group this season but still a Division one club that boasts some talent.
Junior Salters and Noah Dahlman lead a visiting team that will treat this game as the National Championship. On the opposite end the 'Cocks just cannot be too pumped up for this one. SC obviously should get the W but in a pedestrian letdown effort they will struggle a little in an 8-10 point final.
POINTWISE
FIESTA BOWL
TEXAS (11-1) vs OHIO STATE (10-2)
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Texas .......... 47.9 ...44-19 ... 27-18 .. 177- 74 ...300-266 .. + 3 . Texas
Ohio St ........ 47.2 ...28-13 ... 17-17 .. 192-115 ...148-164 .. +15 . by 5.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the first time in 3 years, the Buckeyes of Ohio State are not a part of the BCS Championship contest. Sure, atonement would have been nice for the Bucks, after a pair of one-sided losses to Florida & LSU in the '06 & '07 title matches, in which they were outscored by combined 79-38, but it wasn't to be. OhioSt ranked a consensus #1 on the "Polls" column of our initial issue this season, with no less than 18 starters from LY's 11-2 team, including QB Boeckman, who ranked #13 in passing efficiency in '07 (2,372 yds, 64%, 25/14); & RB Wells, who ranked #11 in rushing (1,609 yds, 15 TDs). And how about 9 starters from LY's top-ranked "D"? But, whereas the Bucks not only won consistently the past 2 years (23-3), but also dominated ATS (16-9), their wins this season weren't all that impressive. As a matter of fact, they stood at just 2-6 vs the pts, before covering their last 3. At season's end OSU ranked just 79th in total "O". Pryor (62.5%, 12/4) replaced Boeckman, & a healthy Wells is always trouble. But their opponents here, the Longhorns of Texas, rank #2 vs the run, allowing just 7 overland TDs. Texas, of course, has been the #1 victim of this year's BCS debacle, as its only setback came on the "play of the year", when TexasTech clicked on a 28-yd TD pass in the final 0:01, to take the Steers, 39-33. Led by McCoy (77.6%, 3,445 yds, 32/7) who has thrown for 9,318 yds & 83 TDs the past 3 years, the Longhorns have averaged 44.5 ppg over their last 15 games, & that includes a 52-34 pasting of ArizonaSt in LY's Holiday Bowl. Note that the Devils were allowing only 22.5 ppg entering that one. Have to go back to the '02 Fiesta to find last time Bucks have been pegged this big a dog.But the Steers have the horses to do this up right. PROPHECY: TEXAS 40 - Ohio State 24 RATING: 1
THE SPORTS MEMO
FIESTA BOWL
Ohio State vs. Texas -9.5 O/U 53.5
Recommendation: Under
Ohio State has enjoyed tremendous success at the Fiesta Bowl this decade, winning a National Title against Miami, knocking off Kansas State as a seven-point underdog and earning their most recent bowl win against Notre Dame following the 2005 season. But since the win over the Fighting Irish, to say that Ohio State has not fared well on the national stage in recent years is something of an understatement. The Buckeyes were embarrassed in each of the last two BCS title games, losing to Florida and LSU by a combined 41 points. It didn’t get any better in their toughest non-conference test this season, a 35-3 wipeout at USC. And the offense was once again nowhere to be found when they lost their chance at another outright Big Ten title in a 13-6 loss to Penn State in Columbus. Can head coach Jim Tressel repair his squad’s national reputation in this matchup? It certainly won’t be easy against a Texas Longhorns team that got shafted by the much-maligned BCS process. The Pokes were left out of the title picture despite the fact they were the only team in the country to beat Oklahoma. Fundamentally, the Buckeyes’ offense has been mediocre at best this season; ranking 37th in the country in “true rushing” yards per carry and 68th in the country in passing yards per attempt. Freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor finished the season with just 1,245 passing yards on 95 completions but did gain 553 yards on the ground. He was the second leading rusher behind only Beanie Wells and his 1,091 rushing yards. Leading receivers Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie produced less than 900 receiving yards between them, which means if Ohio State can’t run, they can’t win. The Texas defense ranks No. 2 in the country against the run, allowing only 73.6 yards per game. The Longhorns led the nation in sacks, and held seven opponents to 14 points or less. Probably the most shocking feat is that UT held every opponent under its season average. Considering the explosive offenses in the Big XII this year, those numbers are downright impressive. Ohio State is going to need a very creative game plan on offense if this game becomes a shootout. But while the offense was lethargic for much of the year, the Buckeyes defense was tremendous. Malcolm ******* was arguably the nation’s best cornerback, while fellow senior James Laurinaitis won the Butkus and Nagurski awards as the nation’s top defensive player last year. Only USC produced more than three touchdowns against the Buckeyes’ stop unit and after the embarrassment of poor defensive showings in each of the last two national title games, motivation is clearly on their side. We project Ohio State doing whatever it takes to avoid a track meet-type scenario. In all reality, it is their only chance to win. Texas will score but it isn’t going to come as easy and we feel confident in this game going Under the total.
Gimme the loot.
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January 5th, 2009 03:26 PM #9
The Hand of Justice
LT Profits
Drexel +3.5
The James Madison Dukes look to be improved from the team that went 13-17 straight up and 10-15 against the spread last season, but we are not prepared to lay points with them vs. a Drexel Dragons club that is having a fine year ATS.
Drexel may be just 5-6 SU overall, but remember that they got off to a 2-6 start and have now won three straight, with all three wins impressively coming on the road.
Even during their slow start, they were not getting blown out, and as a result, the Dragons are a nice 7-3 ATS this season, including 4-2 ATS on the road. If you take away a 38-point blowout loss at Memphis, which is certainly forgivable, Drexel is only losing their other five true road lined game by an average -1.4 points per game.
Now the Dukes are off to an 8-6 SU start including 2-1 at home. Still, they have not played a grueling schedule and that one home loss was vs. Northeastern, a club that is not significantly better then their opponents from Drexel tonight. Also, Madison cannot be trusted as favorites just yet, as they are just 5-7-1 ATS in this role since the start of last season.
Do not be surprised of the Dragons post their fourth consecutive outright road upset here.
Pick: Drexel +3.5
Tony Karpinski
Georgetown vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -2.5
We’re getting some very good line value here on Big Monday ESPN Hoops action, thanks to the Fighting Irish’s tank job at St. John’s on Saturday. Facing an inferior opponent that was coming off three straight double-digit losses to Virginia Tech, Miami (Florida) and Providence, Notre Dame got caught in the classic look-ahead situation and stumbled 71-65 on the road.
Now, they return home and run up against one of the nation’s better defensive teams in Georgetown. However, the Hoyas got exposed a bit in Saturday’s 70-54 home loss to third-ranked Pitt, as they couldn’t put the ball in the basket (the missed 33 of 51 shots) or control it when they did miss (they managed just 17 rebounds to 43 for the Panthers). This is also an incredibly brutal spot for G-Town, which started Big East play with last Monday’s game at second-ranked UConn (74-64 upset win), then played the third-ranked team in the country on Saturday and now hit the road again to face the No. 7 team in the land.
Notre Dame is in a real revenge spot here (four straight losses to Georgetown), and I think it got a much-needed wake-up call with that loss at St. John’s and will show up raring to go against the Hoyas. After all, the Irish have been a strong bounce-back team of late (5-1 ATS in their last six games after a defeat and 4-0 ATS in their last four after an ATS loss).
Lenny Del Genio
Ohio State University at Texas
Prediction: Under
Considering some of the numbers posted in other high-profile bowl games, this number looks a bit low. Rather than take the bait, were going to sit back and think about this and realize Under is the way to go. Buckeyes are 8-1 Under when the total is between 49.5 and 56. Their big win over Michigan sets them up for an Under as well as they are 8-0 Under L3 seasons off a home win by 28+ points. Although you probably think of Texas as an Over team, the Longhorns split on totals during the regular season, going Over six times and Under six times. They held seven opponents to 14 points or less. Take Under in the Fiesta Bowl.
Wunderdog
San Antonio at Miami
Pick: UNDER 181.5
Things are changing in Miami! The NFL Dolphins went from worst to first in the NFL East and the Heat has gone from a team that won just 15 games a year ago, to one that has already surpassed that total this season at 18-14. They have creeped up to #15 in my NBA power rankings and right now they are playing about as good as they have all season, winners in six of their last eight. Two of those wins came against a couple of the best teams in the league in the Lakers and the Cavs. They limited two of the NBA's top offenses to 90 ppg in those wins and are getting it done on the defensive end. The Spurs are hot as well claiming wins in 13 of their last 16 games. The road however isn't where they are making strides against the good teams, where they are just 3-4 with offense not coming easily. The Spurs have always been a defense first team, and the last three on the road vs .500 or better teams have gone UNDER. The Heat have shown the ability to hold down good offenses. I like the UNDER here.
Gimme the loot.
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January 5th, 2009 03:26 PM #10
The Hand of Justice
Drew Gordon
Kent State at TEMPLE -8
Big-time bounce back spot for the Owls, who've struggled on the road in losing their last 3 games, but a return to Philly is just what they need to get back on track. Remember, this is the same Temple team that beat Tennessee outright 88-72 in their last home game, & I expect to see a lot more of that Owls team against an overrated Kent State team tonight.
First of all, the fact the Owls lost so badly at Villanova in their last one has them steaming, especially star F Dionte Christmas, who's 4 of 19 shooting night was a big reason the Owls lost so badly. Not to mention, their # 2 & # 3 scorers, Brooks and Olmos, combined to shoot 5 of 17 for the night in a very uncharacteristic effort for the Owls. Look for big bounce back games from their top-3 players tonight.
Second, don't buy into the Flashes last two cupcake wins. After starting the season with big expectations, this Kent State has gotten thoroughly exposed time and again. Their most recent loss, at Cleveland State in their last road game against a "real" opponent (Hampton hardly counts), is a perfect example of just how road-weary this Flashes team can be. Also, the fact Kent State is just 1-4 ATS away this season cannot be ignored.
Finally, its tough to go against this Temple team at home, where they're an incredible 13-3 ATS over their last 16 there! Their most recent home win over the Vols is testament to their ability to get it done against virtually anyone at home, and I expect Kent State to find that out the hard way tonight. Owls roll, as a little home cookin' goes a long way in this one!
Take Temple over Kent State in this college hoops match up.
2♦ TEMPLE
GINA
Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets
The hot Nuggets will try to win their fourth straight tonight when they square off against the Pacers at the Pepsi Center. Denver has won and covered the spread in seven of the last eight meetings. Both teams are playing sound offense, but poorly on defense. Go with the Nuggets in a high scoring game. The total has gone 'over' in four of the last 5 meetings in Denver
Denver Nuggets -8½
Over -222½
Ron Raymond
NYI (+170) vs EDM
The Edmonton Oilers should never be a -200 favorite to any team this year, take a flyer on the Islanders with DiPietro in nets. When EDMONTON Played as a Favorite - During Last 5 Years - With 1 Under or More - Won Last Game by 3 Goals or Less - With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G; The Oilers are 3-7 SU in this cycle.
King Creole
1* KENT STATE plus the points
Best non-conference DOG of the night is the Golden Flashes of KENT STATE... who take on a reeling Temple team that's dropped three straight games SU and against the spread.14-5 ATS so far this season for a non-conference dogs of 6 > points (KENT) versus any opponent off BB SUATS losses (Temple). If the host team is actually off THREE SU and ATS losses in a row (like the Owls are), the results improve to a PERFECT 6-0 ATS since December 1st.With the Golden Flashes off a couple of BIG 'unlined' wins, it's time to grab the points.6-0 ATS so far this season for ALL road dogs playing off back-to-back 'unlined' wins of 20 or more points each (KENT).
Gimme the loot.
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