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January 6th, 2009 02:25 PM #1
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January 6th, 2009 02:26 PM #2
The Hand of Justice
Gold Medal Club
Memphis -3.5
Chicago Bulls -8
New Orleans +7.5
NSA
20* Ball St +3
10* OVER 75
KBHoops
5* Orlando POD
Chris Rizzo
TULSA -3
The Booooj
10 Units on Ball St. (+3) over Tulsa
Ball St. (12-1) vs. Tulsa (10-3)- Both teams come into this game off of disappointing losses in their conference championships. Tulsa has one of the most exciting offenses in the country, led by the big arm of QB David Johnson. The Golden Hurricane will come out throwing and keep throwing all game. They have scored a ton of points this year, but have been plagued by turnovers at times. Ball St. is led on offense by talented QB Nate Davis, who can make all the throws, but also beat you with his feet. This dual threat ability is what really makes Davis an attractive NFL prospect. The Cardinals also feature tailback Miquale Lewis, who is a powerful runner, despite being a little undersized. Lewis could be the difference in this game as inclement weather is in the forecast and the running game will be pivotal. Look for Ball St. to have a more balanced attack and a slightly better defense. Ball St. by 7-10.
Winning Way Sports
Tulsa/BSU OVER 73.5
Larry Ness
Legend Play
There has been a HUGE 'move' on Tulsa in this game since bowl lines were first announced back in early December and while I wish everyone could play this game at the "original number," I have no major concerns that laying the small price on Tulsa now, will result in a different "ATS outcome" than if one would have taken Tulsa as a small underdog or at "pick'em," earlier in the bowl season. Ball State is in a similar situation to Alabama, as it's perfect season was foiled in a conference championship game. However, while Alabama lost to red-hot Florida in the SEC title game, Ball State lost to an overachieving Buffalo team, as QB Nate Davis three an interception and was involved in FOUR lost fumbles, two of which were returned for TDs of 92 and 74 yards. Ball State lost 42-24 to the Bulls in the MAC championship game, despite a 503-301 yardage advantage. We saw Alabama come out "flat as a pancake" vs Utah and that was with Nick Saban as its head coach. Ball State, which was released by the MAC from the Motor City Bowl to get a more favorable and attractive matchup here with Tulsa, must deal with the fact that former-alum and head coach for the last six years (Brady Hoke), used Ball State's record-setting season in 2008 to get the San Diego State job (Hoke was named the MAC's coach-of-the-year in 2008). Taking over for Ball State in this game is Stan Parrish, who has been the offensive coordinator for the team since 2006. Parrish probably never thought he'd get another shot as a Division I head coach after recording a 2-30-1 mark in three years at Kansas State in the late 1980s. However, he's been in the assistant ranks for years (many stops) and now gets his chance. Ball State QB Nate Davis (66.9 percent / 3,446 yards / 26 TDs and 7 INTs) had a terrific season and MiQuale Lewis (1,701 / 5.6 YPC / 22 TDs) leads a running game which averaged 192.7 YPG (5.1 YPC / 31 TDs). Ball averaged 36.3 PPG but the team's offensive numbers pale in comparison to Tulsa's. Tulsa enters averaging 47.4 PPG and 565.1 YPG, figures that both rank second in the nation. QB Johnson completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 3.866 yards with 43 TDs and 18 INTs. He led the nation in QB passing efficiency for most of the year, until a terrible outing in the C-USA championship game (five INTs and a fumble). While Ball State has an excellent running attack spearheaded by Lewis, Tulsa averages just over 60 more yards per game on the ground (254.8 / 5.4 YPC / 37 TDs) with a plethora of RBs. Adams (1,316 / 5.8 YPC / 10 TDs) is the lead back but four other payers have run for between 251 and 467 yards, with individual averages of 6.4, 7.9, 7.7 and 6.6 YPC! Four of Johnson's receivers have at least seven TD catches plus part-time TE Collums, has six catches in his six games, FIVE of which have been for TDs. This is really a unique team, one which scored 77 points in a win over UTEP, yet allowed 70 points in a loss to Houston. Both team's have major weaknesses on defense but this will be a 'shootout,' so defense will NOT the decide the winner (although turnovers, may?). One can't handicap turnovers, so I won't bother to try. Ball State didn't play anyone of note outside of the MAC in 2008 and the four MAC teams in this year's bowl season have been just dreadful. Central Michigan was the first conference team in action, losing 24-21 in the Motor City Bowl to a 6-6 FAU team from the Sun Belt, as a TD favorite. Northern Illinois scored a single TD against a 7-5 La Tech team in the Independence Bowel (lost 17-10). Western Michigan fell behind Rice 38-0 in a 38-14 loss in the Texas Bowl and just this past Saturday, Buffalo lost 38-20 to U Conn in the International Bowl, only staying that close because of FIVE turnovers by the Huskies. In all, the MAC's first four bowl representatives have been outscored by an average of 29.3 PPG-to-16.3! Ball State has been to four bowls since 1989, losing all four, including 52-30 to Rutgers in LY's International Bowl. Some history buffs may want to claim six career bowls for Ball St, as the team appeared in two Grantland Rice Bowls as well, but let me note that in 1965 Ball Sate tied Tennessee Tech 14-14 and in 1967 lost to Eastern Kentucky 27-13 in those games. Getting back to Tulsa, while the Ball State program has lost its head coach to San Diego St (is that really an improvement?), Tulsa's Todd Graham just agreed to a new 10-year contract on New Year's Day. Tulsa did lose to East Carolina 27-24 in the C-USA title game (SEVEN turnovers did them in) but the Golden Hurricane (at 10-3) have reached double-digit wins two seasons in a row for the first time in school history. The 10 wins matches a school record accomplished six previous times and a win here sets a new school record. Graham was quoted as saying, "Our program is about winning championships and we've got a chance to win a bowl championship." Tulsa beat Bowling Green (another MAC school) in last year's GMAC Bowl 63-7, outgaining the Falcons 562-229 in yards. It's "deja vu all over again," here.
Legend Play on TULSA
Las Vegas Insider - NBA
Break up the Minnesota T-wolves. Minnesota had lost 13 straight between Nov 29 and Dec 23 but the T-wolves have won FOUR of their last six, including two straight. Think that's NOT a big deal? Well consider this. Minnesota last won three in a row back in 2007 (Jan 12-15) and since then, has won back-to-back games eight different times, including wins over Golden State at home (Fri) and at Chicago (Sat). The team has failed to get that third straight wins in each of the last seven tries and will again try for that elusive third straight win tonight, for the first time this season. Standing in the way are the Grizzlies, who are 11-23 overall, including 9-10 at home (10-8-1 ATS). The T-wolves just beat the Grizzlies, 108-98 (OT) in Minnesota on Dec 29 but winning on the road is not something that the T-wolves do too often. They were 7-34 on the road last year and the team's Saturday win at Chicago gave them only a 4-13 road mark TY. Minnesota is 10-7 ATS away from home but it will be tough to 'cover' here, without winning SU. Al Jefferson (22.8-10.4) is having another All-Star caliber season for Minnesota but the talent surrounding him leaves much to be desired. Randy Foye (a former Villanova star) is coming around (14.7-3.5-4. but other than ex-Memphis player Mike Miller (10.2-5.9-3.5), who has been hurt on-and-off TY, the T-wolves have more questions than answers. Gomes (10.8-4.2) and Smith (8.8-3.4) seemed to have "maxed-out" their talent and McCants (9.9) looks to be no better than a journeyman guard in this league. Then there is Kevin Love (of UCLA), who McHale was "so in love with," that he made a draft-day trade with the Grizzlies to acquire Love, for OJ Mayo (more on him in second). Love has averaged 18.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG in his last two games but in his previous 10, had scored more than seven points just one time. He had two points or less five times in that stretch, averaging a paltry 3.9 PPG over the 10-game stretch, even though he had 17 points in one of those games. He's averaging 8.8 PPG and 7.9 RPG on the season and one wonders just what McHale was thinking? OJ Mayo (19.7-4.1-3.0) is the NBA's highest-scoring rookie and he's likely just "scratched the surface" of his talents. Rudy Gay (19.1-5.4) is proving to be a 'budding' star and joins fellow frontcourt players Warrick (11.6-4.9) plus Marc Gasol (11.3-7.0), giving the Grizzlies a very good group of forwards (they could sure use a "true" center, however). PGs Conley (7.9-3.1 APG) and Lowry (7.5-4.1 APG) show promise and I believe there is way more 'upside' with the Memphis franchise than there is in Minnesota. Marc Iavaroni's team is coming off its most lopsided win of the season on Sunday, beating Dallas 102-82. The Mavs had entered that game with an 18-5 mark since Nov 15 and that "confidence-builder" plus a little "revenge motive" from an OT loss at Minnesota on Dec 29, should be all the Grizzlies need to come out on top of the T-wolves in this one.
Las Vegas Insider on the Mem Grizzlies
Gimme the loot.
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January 6th, 2009 02:27 PM #3
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January 6th, 2009 02:32 PM #4
The Hand of Justice
SPORTS ADVISORS
GMAC BOWL
(23) Ball State (12-1, 9-3 ATS) vs. Tulsa (10-3, 7-5 ATS) (at Mobile, Ala.)
Ball State, which had its perfect season ruined in the Mid-American Conference title game, will try to bounce back against Tulsa, which also tumbled in its own league title game.
The Cardinals got bounced by Buffalo 42-24 as an overwhelming 15-point chalk in the Dec. 5 MAC final at Detroit’s Ford Field, bringing their 12-0 SU and 9-2 ATS run to a screeching halt. Ball State led 10-7 at halftime, but the Bulls put up 21 third-quarter points and another 14 in the fourth quarter to turn the game into a rout. In fact, Buffalo returned two fumbles for TDs in the third quarter, with one going for 92 yards and the other for 74. Cardinals QB Nate Davis (31 of 48, 351 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and RB MiQuale Lewis (30 carries, 131 yards, 2 TDs) had decent outings, but Ball State couldn’t overcome a 5-2 turnover deficit after entering the game with just 10 turnovers for the entire season.
The Golden Hurricane finished the season on a 1-4 ATS skid (2-3 SU), including a 27-24 loss to East Carolina as a heavy 12½-point favorite in the Conference USA title game Dec. 6. QB David Johnson (23 of 42, 195 yards, 1 TD) got his lone TD pass in the fourth quarter, tying the game at 24, but the Golden Hurricane lost on a late field goal. Much like Ball State in the MAC final, turnovers were a huge issue, as Johnson threw a stunning five INTs, with one returned 72 yards for a score. Tulsa also lost two of its three fumbles to finish with a 7-1 turnover deficit, negating a solid day from RB Tarrion Adams (28 carries, 120 yards, 2 TDs).
These teams have never met before. Ball State has lost all four of its previous postseason appearances (1-2 ATS in lined games), including a 52-30 wipeout against Rutgers as a 10-point pup in last year’s International Bowl. Tulsa is in its fourth straight bowl contest (2-1 SU and ATS) and is in the GMAC Bowl for the second straight time. Last year, the Golden Hurricane hammered the MAC’s Bowling Green 63-7 as a five-point chalk, setting a bowl record for margin of victory.
Ball State ranks in the top 25 offensively with per-game averages of 36.6 points (17th), 459.4 total yards (11th), 266.7 passing yards (22nd) and 192.7 rushing yards (24th). Davis completed 66.9 percent of his passes for 3,446 yards with 26 TDs and just seven INTs, and Lewis (1,701 yards, 22 TDs, 5.6 ypc) was the nation’s third-leading rusher in the regular season.
Defensively, the Cards were middle-of-the-pack in allowing 347.9 total ypg, but they yielded just 18.6 ppg (19th).
Tulsa sports the No. 1 offense in the country in total yards, averaging a whopping 565 per game, including 310.2 passing ypg (seventh) and 254.8 rushing yards (seventh), while putting up 47.4 ppg, which rated second nationally. Johnson completed 64.8 percent of his throws for 3,866 yards with 43 TDs and 18 INTs, WR Brennan Marion (43 catches, 1,112 yards, 8 TDs) averaged an eye-popping 25.9 yards per catch, and Adams ran for 1,316 yards (5.8 ypc) and 11 TDs.
On the other side of the ball, though, the Golden Hurricane were quite generous, giving up 29.1 ppg (86th) and 392.3 total ypg (85th), including 258.8 through the air (104th).
The Cardinals are on a plethora of positive pointspread runs, including 20-8 overall, 5-1 after a SU loss, 10-2 after a non-cover, 10-2 outside the MAC, 7-2 as an underdog and 16-5 against winning teams. On the flip side, along with their current 1-4 ATS skid, the Golden Hurricane are on ATS slides of 1-5 on grass, 1-4 laying points, 3-8 against winning teams and 5-12 after a pointspread defeat.
The over is on a 4-1 run for Ball State against winning teams and is 5-2 in Tulsa’s last seven non-conference games, but the under for the Golden Hurricane is on stretches of 7-1 on grass and 6-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALL STATE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Ohio State (10-2, 4-5 ATS) at (8) Michigan State (11-2, 6-4 ATS)
Off to a strong start in Big Ten play, Michigan State looks to keep rolling and extend a seven-game overall winning streak when it returns home to face suddenly slumping Ohio State.
The Spartans opened conference action with a pair of double-digit road wins at Minnesota on Wednesday (70-58 as a one-point road favorite) and Northwestern on Saturday (77-66 as a four-point road chalk). Six of the team’s contests during its current seven-game winning streak have come by 11 points or more, and Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in lined action during this run (3-0 ATS last three).
Ohio State vaulted into the Top 25 courtesy of a 10-0 start, but the Buckeyes slipped out of the rankings after losing two of their last three (0-3 ATS). After opening the league season with a narrow 68-65 home win over Iowa as an eight-point favorite, Ohio State went to Minnesota on Saturday and got dumped 68-59 as a 3½-point underdog. During its 1-2 slump, the Buckeyes have averaged 58.3 ppg while giving up 69.7 ppg.
These rivals split two regular-season meetings last year, with the home team winning each contest and Ohio State going 2-0 ATS. But in the Big Ten Tournament, the Spartans prevailed 67-60 as a 4½-point chalk at a neutral site, ending an 0-3 ATS drought against the Buckeyes. The favorite has gotten the money in the last two meetings after the underdog cashed in the previous five. Finally, the visitor is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 regular-season battles.
Ohio State is in ATS ruts of 1-4 overall, 1-4-1 in Big Ten play and 0-4 versus winning teams, but the Buckeyes are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Tuesday contests. Conversely, in addition to cashing in four of its last five overall, Michigan State is on ATS runs of 4-0 in conference play and 6-1 at home against teams with a winning road record, but Tom Izzo’s squad is 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven Tuesday contests.
The over is 5-0 in Ohio State’s last five on Tuesday and 4-1 in its last five after both a SU and ATS loss, but the under is 10-2 in Michigan State’s last 12 on Tuesday and 5-2 in its last seven lined games overall. Finally, the under is 3-0-1 in the last four regular-season battles in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
(5) UConn (12-1, 5-4 ATS) at (25) West Virginia (11-2, 5-5 ATS)
West Virginia has used a five-game winning streak to climb into the Top 25 but now faces its toughest test of the season when it hosts fifth-ranked Connecticut.
The Mountaineers opened Big East play with a dominating 92-66 road win at Seton Hall, cashing easily as a nine-point road chalk. West Virginia started its five-game run with a 68-63 win at Duquesne but has since ripped off four blowout victories by 36, 35, 28 and 26 points, and including the Duquesne win, their average margin of victory during the winning streak is 26 ppg (81-55). Bob Huggins’ team has followed up an 0-5 ATS slump with three consecutive spread-covers.
UConn rebounded from its only loss of the season (74-63 to Georgetown as a 6½-point home favorite eight days ago) with Saturday’s 80-49 rout of Rutgers as a 21½-point favorite, halting a two-game ATS slide. With the exception of the game against Georgetown and a 68-64 win at Buffalo, the Huskies have scored at least 75 points in every game this season, and they’ve held eight of 13 opponents to 58 points or fewer.
These schools met twice in a two-week span back in March, with UConn prevailing 79-71 as a three-point home favorite in the first clash and the Mountaineers exacting revenge in the Big East Tournament with a 78-72 victory as a 2½-point underdog. Going back to 1999, the Huskies are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS against West Virginia, including 3-1 SU and ATS in Morgantown. Also, the favorite has cashed in five of the last seven series battles.
West Virginia averages 81 ppg while making 50 percent of its shots, while UConn puts up 76.1 ppg on 44.7 percent shooting. Defensively, the Mountaineers have the slight edge, giving up 56.2 ppg (39.6 percent) compared with the Huskies’ 61.6 ppg (37.8 percent).
UConn is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 true road games, 6-14 ATS in its last 20 against teams with a winning home mark and 1-7 ATS in its last eight when coming off a victory of more than 20 points. Meanwhile, despite cashing in their last three contests, the Mountaineers are only 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 on Tuesday.
The over is on streaks of 9-4 for UConn overall in lined outings, 4-1 for UConn on the road, 5-1 for UConn in Big East play, 4-0 for UConn against winning teams, 7-1 for the Mountaineers in league play and 4-0 for the Mountaineers against winning teams. Also, the last four series clashes between these schools have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Alabama (10-3, 4-4 ATS) at (12) Clemson (14-0, 5-4 ATS)
Clemson – off to a 14-0 start for the second time in three years – will try to match the school record for victories to start a season when it hosts surging Alabama at Littlejohn Coliseum in Death Valley.
The Tigers pounded a pair of regional rivals the last two times out, first knocking off South Carolina 98-87 as a 2½-point road chalk a week ago, then beating East Carolina 79-66 on Saturday, but falling well short as a 24-point home chalk. Clemson ranks 12th in the nation in scoring (82.7 ppg) and ninth in field-goal percentage (49.9); it has scored at least 70 points in every contest so far; and 10 of its 14 wins have come by double digits.
Since losing to Texas A&M in overtime back on Dec. 13, the Crimson Tide have reeled off five consecutive victories (2-2 ATS in lined action), and they’re 9-1 in their last 10. That includes Saturday’s 88-77 victory over Georgia Tech as a three-point home favorite. Like Clemson, Alabama can fill the bucket, averaging 72.6 ppg, but shooting only 43.5 percent from the field.
In a New Year’s Day clash last year, Clemson went to Tuscaloosa and rolled the Tide 87-61 as a two-point road chalk.
Both squads have been solid defensively, with the Tigers yielding 63.5 ppg (40.5 percent shooting) and ‘Bama giving up 65 ppg (38.2 percent).
Alabama is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against winning teams and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 following an outright win, but the Tide are mired in pointspread slumps of 3-8 after a spread-cover, 1-4 on Tuesdays and 3-11 on the road after playing three or more straight home games. Meanwhile, Clemson is 7-1 ATS in its last eight versus SEC opponents and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after a non-cover.
Alabama sports “over” streaks of 5-0 overall (all in non-conference action), 4-1 on the road and 5-1 after a spread-cover, but the under is 9-3 in its last 12 Tuesday affairs. The Tigers are on “over” stretches of 15-7-1 in non-league games and 5-1 against the SEC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON and OVER
(7) Texas (11-2, 6-4 ATS) at Arkansas (11-1, 4-2 ATS)
Arkansas puts its perfect home record and a nine-game overall winning streak on the line when it hosts seventh-ranked Texas at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville.
Playing in their home-away-from-home in Little Rock on Saturday, the Razorbacks downed North Texas 86-75, barely holding on as a 10-point home chalk to improve to 16-0 in designated home games dating to last January. A week ago tonight, they handed then-No. 4 Oklahoma its first setback of the season, rolling to a 96-88 victory as a 5½-point home underdog. Arkansas has been a scoring machine this season, putting up 82.7 ppg (13th best in the nation) on 47.4 percent shooting, and it has tallied at least 79 points eight times during its nine-game winning streak.
The Longhorns have played just twice since a 67-63 loss to Michigan State in Houston on Dec. 20, first topping Wisconsin 74-69 as a one-point underdog, then knocking off Appalachian State 78-43 as a 23½-point home favorite on Friday. Although Texas is 8-1 SU in its last nine games, only four of the victories have come by more than nine points. Rick Barnes’ squad is putting up 73.7 ppg (45 percent shooting).
These regional rivals last met in 2006, with Texas edging Arkansas 80-76 but coming up short as a seven-point home chalk.
Texas rates a huge edge defensively over the Razorbacks, giving up just 59.9 ppg (38.6 percent) while Arkansas surrenders 69 ppg (42 percent). The Longhorns have held seven of 13 foes to 58 points or less.
Arkansas is on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 8-3-1 at home and 6-1 against winning teams, but the Hogs are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 battles with the Big 12 and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Longhorns are on ATS upswings of 5-2 on the highway, 9-2-1 on Tuesday and 7-3 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points.
The over has been the play for both squads recently, including 6-2 for Texas on the road, 4-0 for Texas against the SEC, 4-0 for Arkansas overall, 4-1 for Arkansas on Tuesday and 4-0 for Arkansas versus Big 12 foes. Lastly, the 2006 meeting between these squads easily eclipsed the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
New Orleans (20-10, 13-16-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (27-5, 16-16 ATS)
The streaking Lakers put their six-game SU and five-game ATS winning streaks on the line when they host the Hornets, who have already dropped two home games to Los Angeles this season.
Los Angeles looked sluggish for the first 1½ quarters against Portland on Sunday, then turned on the jets en route to a 100-86 victory as an 11-point home chalk. Five Lakers scored in double figures, led by Kobe Bryant’s 26 points, and the team outshot the Blazers 49.3 percent to 39 percent.
The Lakers are 18-1 SU at home, winning the last 15 in a row. They’ve also covered four straight games at Staples Center after going 0-5 ATS in their previous five. For the season, Phil Jackson’s team is averaging 109 points per game (48 percent shooting) in its building while allowing 97.1 ppg (43 percent), and 12 of their 18 home wins have been double-digit blowouts.
New Orleans had a four-game winning streak halted in its most recent contest Saturday at Denver, falling 105-100 as a 4½-point road underdog. It was just the second time in the last 12 games that the Hornets reached triple digits in scoring and just the third time in the last 15 outings that they allowed 100 points or more. New Orleans has followed a 7-2-1 ATS run by failing to cash in six of its last eight.
With the loss at Denver, the Hornets dropped to a modest 9-6 SU and 6-8-1 ATS on the highway, where they’re putting up just 94.6 ppg (45 percent shooting) and giving up 92.8 ppg (45.2 percent).
The Lakers are riding a three-game winning streak in this rivalry, taking the first two meetings this year in the Big Easy by scores of 93-86 as a 1½-point underdog on Nov. 12 and 100-87 as a two-point pup on Dec. 23. The underdog has cashed in nine consecutive contests between these two squads, including eight outright upsets. Going back to the 2006-07 season, New Orleans is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in Los Angeles.
Although they’re mired in ATS funks of 2-6 overall and 2-5-1 on the road, the Hornets are still on positive pointspread streaks of 21-9 against the Pacific Division, 40-19-2 after a SU loss, 45-21-1 after a non-cover and 14-6-1 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. In addition to being 5-0 ATS in its last five overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four at home, Los Angeles is on pointspread runs of 4-0 against the Western Conference and 6-2 against the Southwest Division, but the Lakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 when playing on one day of rest.
The last five meetings in this rivalry have stayed under the total, but the over is 5-1 in the last six clashes at Staples Center. Furthermore, the Hornets are on “under” stretches of 10-2 overall, 10-3 on the road, 29-13 when playing on two days of rest, 6-1 when facing Western Conference foes and 5-0 when playing on Tuesday. The Lakers have stayed low in eight of 11 against the Southwest Division and five straight against teams with a winning record, but the over is 13-5 in their last 18 home games and 6-1 in their last seven on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Gimme the loot.
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January 6th, 2009 02:33 PM #5
The Hand of Justice
Wild Bill
Under 77 Ball St-Tulsa (5 units)
Ball St defense will be the difference in this tilt with a new coach taking the helm with a very good QB in Davis vs another good QB for Tulsa, however, Ball St has played a much better schedule and should prevail 34-24.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Utah Utes
A key non-conference clash tips off at the Huntsman Center in Salt Lake City Tuesday night when the Utes play host to the Bengals. Utah has made a living hosting non-confeence foes, especially so in games when the visitor is not off a double-digit loss, going 23-1 SU and 19-4-1 ATS in this roles. With LSU playing its first true road game of the season, look for the Utes to add another 'W' to their tally sheet here tonight. Lay the points with Utah.
Dave Cokin
Alabama @ Clemson
Play: Clemson -13.5
Tough spot for Bama. The Tide aren't exactly carrying the reputation of road warrior into Littlejohn, which is even tougher than usual these days with the Clemson program red hot. The SEC is very beatable this year, and I can't see an untrustworthy Crimson Tide squad being able to hang in with the Tigers, who often aren't shy about running it up. Clemson minus the points is the choice.
Brad Diamond
Play on: Charlotte + over Boston
The record breaking Celtics started at 27-2, but can't consistently put together a solid run. After a 1-3 SU road swing, the Green got up on the horrid Wizards and won going away this past Friday. However, the Celtics lost last time out to the restructuring Knicks at MSG, 29-6! Descending Bobbies have lost three of four and simply don't matchup with the Celtics, especially with the visitor in a pissed off mood. However, we note the UNDERDOG IS 11-0 ATS in the series.
Jimmy The Moose
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals
Prediction: Over
The over is 14-6-1 in the Flyers last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 13 games played with 2 days rest between action the over is 10-2-1. Philadelphia has played over the total in 6 of their last 7 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The over is 7-2-1 in Washington's last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. Atlantic Division opponents. The over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between the clubs. Play the over.
Dr. Vegas
GMAC Bowl - Ball State vs Tulsa
Ball State went 12-0 in the regular season, losing the MAC Championship to Buffalo. Some say that Ball State didn’t put forth the effort, but in fact they did beat Buffalo in many categories, such as First Downs, Total Yards, Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, and Time of Possession. They outplayed Buffalo in many ways, but the final score didn’t reflect it. Buffalo took advantage of several key turnovers.
Tulsa is another team that led the Conference but lost the championship game, in their case to the East Carolina Pirates. And just as Ball State did, Tulsa actually won many key categories in this game, including First Downs, Total Yards, Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, and Time of Possession. It was a close game decided by a late field goal.
So here we have two teams, conference leaders, who lost the championship in games they actually could have won.
Tulsa covered 6 of their first 7 board games, then Vegas adjusted and they lost 4 of their last 5 against the number, for a 7-5 ATS mark on the year. Ball State was a little more consistent with 4 ATS losses sprinkled amid their 8 ATS wins. Ball State scored 476 points and gave up 242, while Tulsa scored a whopping 616 and gave up 378. The games in which Tulsa played averaged a total of 76.5 points, considerable higher than Ball State’s 55.2 average.
Vegas opened this game with Ball State -2.5. As of this writing, it has moved to Ball State -1.5 with approximately 8% more of the public playing Ball State. Everyone is focused on the tight line and expecting a close game. What I immediately noticed is the total, which opened at 75 and now at 76.5.
Not once this season did a Ball State game pass 76. Five times this year Tulsa’s games surpassed that mark, but even those have circumstances to consider (such as the 62-34 drubbing of Central Arkansas).
I’ll give an opinion play on Ball State, but my free pick on the game is the play it under the total.
Mike Anthony
Ball State vs. Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -2
We are not sure of what the logic is that places this game mixed with the major BCS showdowns, but at least the folks in Mobile got themselves a matchup that brings some entertainment. The drama comes from Ball State being undefeated into December, but now having to play without head coach Brady Hoke, who has moved on to San Diego State. It might not even be a lateral move for him, but he seemed savvy enough to realize that this past season was as good as it is ever likely to be in Muncie.
With veteran Stan Parrish stepping in the Cardinals should not tactically miss a beat, but there are some psychological issues after those big dreams got turned around vs. Buffalo.
Meanwhile Tulsa also brings a bitter memory to the table, with steady QB David Johnson throwing five interceptions vs. East Carolina in the Conference USA title tilt, after he had a ratio of 42 touchdowns vs. only 13 picks all season coming in.
But the Golden Hurricanes do bring positive memories from this venue, their 63-7 thrashing of Bowling Green in this same bowl LY, and we believe the speed and precision of their offense can find some operating room against a Ball State defense that put up good numbers, but lacked quickness. Tulsa has more talent and seems to win the turnover battle in each game. PLAY TULSA!
Bobby Maxwell
UConn (pk) at WEST VIRGINIA
The Huskies are definitely the play here as they rebounded from their first loss of the season with a blowout of Rutgers on Saturday, winning 80-49 as a 21 1/2-point favorite. UConn will go to West Virginia and deliver us a winner.
UConn has scored at least 75 points in every game this season with the exception of their loss to Georgetown and a narrow 68-64 win at Buffalo. On defense, the Huskies have held eight of their 13 opponents to 58 points or less.
Dating back to 1999, the Huskies are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS against West Virginia and they are 3-1 SU and ATS in Morgantown.
West Virginia is just 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 Tuesday contests and UConn hasn't been much on the road, including 8-18 ATS in its last 26.
Look for a balanced scoring effort from the Huskies tonight as they move the ball and get the job done in West Virginia. Play UConn.
2♦ UCONN
Gimme the loot.
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January 6th, 2009 02:35 PM #6
The Hand of Justice
Scott Delaney
Today's Selection
Play the Lakers over the Hornets tonight, as we come in off a push with Colorado in college hoops last night.
New Orleans on a West Coast trip mixed with a sizzling Lakers team that has now won six in a row after Sunday's blowout win is the right combination for a blowout win over rival-Portland.
The Purple and Gold will dominate tonight, getting revved up for a Western Conference conteder they've dominated the last few meetings - including the first two of this season.
And both of those games were in the Big Easy. But, the Lakers had no trouble winning by an average of 10 points per win.
L.A. has won by double digits in three straight now, defeating Golden State, Utah and the Blazers by an average margin of 14.7 points per win.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the points with the Kings.
Sacramento is not a very good basketball team anywhere and especially not away from Arco. Plus the Kings are on the tough back-to-back after the game last night in New Jersey but right now Chicago is a total disaster and for da Bulls to be laying a dozen plus to anybody right now is just silly.
In the begining of the season I really thought that Vinny Del Negro's team was going to be much improved after a last few disappointing seasons and were ready to rebound behind a total Rookie stud in Derrick Rose. These guys teetered around the .500 mark for the first month or so but have regressed to the dog with fleas category over the past few weeks.
Chicago just looked awful at the United Center as a similar favorite against a similar skilled opponent to Sacramento in Minnesota dropping to 14-20 overall after losing their sixth game in their last seven. I just don't see why anything will really improve all that much here as Drew Gooden and Luol Deng are still banged up and Deng is out for sure.
The Kings may run out of gas late but I'm really not sure sure that these Bulls can capitalize on much in any scenario right now. Mush is mush and da Bulls are mush!
JIM FEIST
SACRAMENTO KINGS /CHICAGO BULLS
Take CHICAGO BULLS
Sacramento doesn't have much at either end of the court. The Kings allow 105 ppg, which is third worst in the NBA. This is also a terrible situational handicapping spot, playing their 4th game in 5 nights -- all on the road! Throughout the season, opposing defenses have focused on containing the Bulls' potent backcourt of Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon. The duo accounts for nearly 40 points a game and each is converting better than 45 percent of his field-goal attempts. However, the Kings don't have backcourt depth or defensive skills. A good spot for the rested home team that needs a big win. Play the Bulls.
Alex Smart
Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Bobcats Over 178.0
The Bobcats are an extremely inconsistent team, that has shown spurts of cohesiveness this season. The visiting Celtics find themselves in a slump , after an early season 19 game win streak, and have now lost 4 of their L/6 and are off a lazy lackluster effort against the Knicks last time out losing a 100-88 affair.
Boston will be in a bounce back mode and bring their A game to the court tonight against a Bobcats team that has given some problems in recent meetings, as was the case when Charlotte beat them 95-83 at the Garden last January.
The Celtics because of their current funk, will be in a nasty mood , and come out firing on all cylinders. The hyped up Bobcats will have no choice but to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the court. Im betting the Shamrocks show little mercy here this evening and pile up the score in merciless fashion, while the cats, fire in away with a back door advantage. This scenario will see more than enough points going on the board to burst the number.
I am not interested in backing the Celtics via a DD spread, but the Total looks very beatable.
Final notes & Key Trends: Over is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 games following a SU Win.
Play OVER
Brian Hansen
Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks
Having recorded shutouts in each of their last two games versus the Kings, the Ducks try for a third straight victory over Los Angeles on Tuesday night in the opener of a home-and-home series between the southern California clubs. Anaheim is 12-8 its last 20 when playing against a team with a losing record; play on the DUCKS!
Sports Gambling Hotline
Ball State vs. TULSA - at Mobile
Talk about getting a tired hand, expect the scoreboard operator at Ladd-Peebles Stadium to be reaching for the Aleeve from all of the scoring that is going to be going on in this game.
You want offense? You have it tonight!
You want turnovers? You will have them tonight as well!
Prior to their MAC Championship Game against Buffalo, Ball State had been averaging 38-points per game over their final 5 games of the regular season.
Tulsa, prior to their Conference USA Championship Game against East Carolina had been averaging 45.5-points per game over their final 6 games of the regular season.
With quarterbacks Nate Davis, and David Johnson both looking for a little redemption after shaky conference title games, expect these teams to flourish on offense tonight.
Play on the OVER in the GMAC Bowl this evening.
4♦ OVER
Vegas Experts
New Orleans at LA Lakers
The Hornets are playing with revenge for a 13-point home loss to the Lakers last month where they were without Peja Stojakovic. PG Chris Paul had a rare off night as well. New Orleans has been a great revenge team over the last three seasons, going 55-35 ATS in that role, including 25-10 ATS if seeking revenge for a home loss. They are also 34-17 ATS off a road loss, 16-5 ATS off a loss by six points or less and 58-37 ATS playing with 2 days rest.
Play on: New Orleans
Mr A
Ball State vs. Tulsa
Expect a high scoring contest when two of the nation’s top quarterbacks Ball State’s Nate Davis and Tulsa’s David Johnson have a shootout in Alabama. The Cardinals average 36.6 points per game, while the Golden Hurricane average 47.4. The total is set at a huge 75, but this battle will be a scoring frenzy.
Over 75
NBA TUES
Orlando Magic -13
Sacramento Kings +8½
GINA
New Orleans Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers
Go with the Lakers to win their 16 straight game at home when they face the Hornets tonight at the Staples Center. Los Angeles has beaten New Orleans in ten of their last 13 meetings in Los Angeles and should easily cover the 7½ spread. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home. The Hornets are 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games, 1-3-1 ATS on the road.
Los Angeles Lakers - 7½
Wunderdog
Philadelphia at Washington
Pick: Washington -156
You have to be intrigued with a Washington team that has fallen just once at home all season and at 17-1-1 why they are laying so little. What makes it look even better is they are on a roll right now, home or away with just one loss in their last 12 outings. That loss was a drubbing at the hands of the Flyers on the road 7-1, so you know they are going to bring their "A" game to this one to revenge the loss, and their "A" game has been almost flawless at home. The Flyers have been playing negative hockey in their last nine games with a sub-.500 mark, so this certainly isn't the venue to get healthy again. The Caps are now 39-13 in their last 52 at home, while the Flyers have amassed a very poor 15-41 mark on the road against teams .600 or better. The Capitals get it done here.
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Under
Dallas is 17-8 UNDER as a favorite and they are 7-0 UNDER off an ATS loss. The Mavericks are 4-0 UNDER after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 21-5-1 UNDER vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40%. The Clippers are 12-3 UNDER with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points and they are 16-5 UNDER vs. winning teams. Los Angeles is 10-2 UNDER on Tuesday and they are 6-1 UNDER vs. the Southwest Division. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
David Malinsky
Texas @ Arkansas
PICK: Texas -4
In setting this line where they have, the oddsmakers made a statement that the Arkansas upset of Oklahoma last week was “real”. That is putting the cart far ahead of the horse in our book, and a hard-nosed and veteran Texas team is in an excellent position to cash a ticket for us at this discount offering.
Yes, it was a brilliant showing by the Razorbacks, who have the athleticism for special things when they are clicking. But note that the upset came against an Oklahoma team that was not forewarned, and also one that was not prepared for dealing with these uptempo tactics. It is because of that very result that Texas will be properly focused here, with Rick Barnes able to use those films not only for tactical purposes, but for motivation as well. And with Barnes having the kind of roster that can absorb the message, we will see Arkansas being exposed here, rather than building momentum.
The Longhorns bring the ideal chemistry to take into a hostile environment – a starting lineup of seniors A. J. Abrams and Connor Atchley, and juniors Damion Jones, Dexter Pittman and Justin Mason, is no stranger to taking on challenges away from Austin – they won at U.C.L.A. in non-conference play LY, while also beating NCAA-bound Kansas State and Oklahoma on the Big 12 road, and they showed their fortitude in winning at Wisconsin already this season. The defense has a chance to be as good as any in the nation, allowing 38.6 percent from the field, 30.6 from beyond the arc, and just 59.9 points per game, with a combination of both physical tenacity and court savvy. The latter allows Barnes to go both zone and man-to-man, with that flexibility giving him ideal matchups against a young Arkansas back-court starting freshman Courtney Fortson and Rashnei Clark.
The Razorbacks are mercurial, but a little soft, and it takes more than beating one major opponent to have them ready for this class – in terms of strength of schedule they are #342 in the nation on the Sagarin ratings, and #337 from Pomery (as always, we will use those outside sources for such references, so that our own numbers can be kept safely in-house). We expect them to face major adversity for the first time tonight, getting drawn into a half-court game in which they are not at their best, and the frustrations will show.
Karl Garrett
Boston at CHARLOTTE +9'
Underdog NBA play tonight on the Charlotte Bobcats as the G-Man expects Larry Brown's crew to hang inside this roomy home impost.
Boston is struggling right now, as the Celtics have dropped 4 of 6 both straight up, and against the spread, and the C's are playing their 5th game on the road in their last 6 games tonight. Doc Rivers' crew does have a home date with Houston all set for tomorrow night, so it is easy to see Boston looking ahead in this spot.
Charlotte lost by just 5 at home in the season first meeting back at the end of November, and the Bobcats have covered 7 of the last 9 series meetings overall.
With Charlotte fresh off a 10-point home win over Milwaukee, the G-Man likes them to show up in tonight's home date against the sliding Celts.
Take the points.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Nostradamus
Tulsa -3
Miami Ohio +6.5
Seton Hall +6.5
Bradley +2.5
LSU/Utah Under 136.5
Houst/Phil Under 189.5
New York -2
Carolina -125
Jeff Benton
L.A. Clippers +12' at DALLAS
I’m now on a 35-16 run with free plays after last night’s winner on Notre Dame minus the points against Georgetown. For Tuesday, we’ll flip to the NBA – where I’ve hit five of my last six freebies – and take the massive points with the depleted Clippers at the Mavericks.
I know that two key starters for Los Angeles -- Baron Davis and Zach Randolph -- won't play in this game, but that doesn't change the fact that Dallas struggles mightily as a favorite (10-14 ATS on the season) and is downright awful as a big chalk, going 1-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite. Two of the Mavs’ non-covers in the favorite role this year have come against the Clippers – they lost 103-92 as 4½-point road chalk on Nov. 9 and barely pulled out a 100-98 win as an 11-point home favorite on Dec. 2.
Sure, Dallas finally got its act together against the Clips in a 98-76 win in Los Angeles as a one-point underdog on Dec. 28. However, since then, the Mavericks looked shaky in home wins over sub-.500 teams Minnesota (107-100 as a 13-point chalk) and Philadelphia (96-86 as an eight-point choice), then went to Memphis on Sunday and got throttled 102-82 as a six-point road favorite.
Meanwhile, the Clippers can’t buy a win to save their lives (they’ve now dropped seven in a row). However, they’ve covered the spread in three of their last four (all as an underdog), and despite missing Davis and Zach Randolph (not to mention center Chris Kaman), they nearly knocked off Detroit on Sunday, losing 88-87 loss as a six-point pup. And get this: Astoundingly, that was L.A.’s 10th loss this season by five points or less, or in overtime – meaning they’ve been much more competitive in their 8-25 record.
The Clippers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after a defeat and 6-1 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference, while the Mavs are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 at home. And even though L.A. will once again be without Davis, Randolph and Kaman, I’ll still confidently roll the dice with the underdog in this one.
4♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
Drew Gordon
Washington at ORLANDO -12'
Boy, did the Wiz sure pick a bad time to travel to O-town! Coming off a bitter loss at the Raptors in their last one, I expect the Magic to drop the proverbial hammer on the visiting Wizards tonight. Similar to what they did to the Bulls New Year's Eve, beating them 113-94 after losing to Pistons two nights before (and they did that in Chicago, now imagine the bounce back effort at home).
Also, I smell a MAJOR letdown here for Washington, one game removed from beating the mighty Cavaliers 80-77 Sunday. The Wiz put everything they had into beating Lebron and company, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least, if they came out flat tonight on the road. A sluggish start against a motivated Magic team will have the Wiz playing catchup all night.
From a match up standpoint, we saw what happened the last time these two teams got together, a 105-90 Magic road win back on November 27th. Howard, Turkoglu, and Lewis all won their match ups with ease, and in fact, the Magic won that game handily without starting PG Nelson in the lineup! Magic only allow 90 ppg at home this season, and with Washington struggling to break 89 ppg over their last 5 games, it's going to be long night for the Wiz in this one.
Bottom line, an Orlando bounce back effort at home, coupled with a Wizards letdown after beating Cleveland, point to only one result in this contest - a solid home win and cover by the Magic - lay the points!
Take Orlando BIG over Washington in this NBA match up.
2♦ ORLANDO
Gimme the loot.
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January 6th, 2009 02:35 PM #7
The Hand of Justice
Ted Sevransky
Alabama @ Clemson
PICK: Alabama +14
Year after year under head coach Mark Gottfried, Alabama has been on a very of a breakthrough campaign. Year after year, injuries and inconsistency have plagued them, keeping them from realizing their potential. Things feel different this year. They’ve won nine of their last ten, the lone loss coming in overtime against a solid Texas A+M squad. Point guard Ronald Steele, an all-SEC talent as a sophomore who sat out last season while rehabbing from knee surgery, is back and better than ever.
Here are a couple of quotes coming out of Tuscaloosa following ‘Bama’s easy win over Georgia Tech on Saturday. At times, particularly in the first half, Steele showed the kind of speedy and aggressive play that once made him one of the best point guards in the country. I've been waiting to see that quickness and speed. It seems like mentally he turned it loose today,” Gottfried said. “Early in the game it was the best I've seen him in a while.” “He's a veteran player. He understands how to play,” Georgia Tech head coach Paul He¬witt said. “If he gets (stays) healthy, they'll be a good basketball team. He's the quickest I've seen him all year.”
Don’t be fooled by the 11 point margin of victory against the Yellow Jackets either – the Crimson Tide led by 30 midway through the second half before coasting down the stretch. “I think for about 25 or 30 minutes, we were an awfully good basketball team on both ends of the floor,” coach Mark Gottfried said.
Five Alabama players scored in double figures in the win over Georgia Tech, the second time that has happened this season. The first was in their previous game. And that is most assuredly the key to this wager – well, that and the inflated pointspread. Clemson is a tremendous defensive team. Their 14-0 start and Top 10 ranking is no accident. The Tigers will continue to shut down weaker offensive teams. But Alabama’s scoring balance and their improved play at the point with a healthy Steele make them a force to contend with tonight, against a foe that may well be looking ahead to their ACC home opener this weekend.Take Alabama.
Gimme the loot.
-
January 6th, 2009 02:36 PM #8
The Hand of Justice
LT Profits
Georgia +7.0
Now make no mistake, we realize that the ACC is much stronger than the SEC. However, we rate the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets as probably the worst team in the ACC and we feel they are a bit of an overlay vs. the Georgia Bulldogs here.
After all, Tech played the weakest non-conference schedule of any ACC team, and yet they still have five losses already. Now granted, two losses came at USC and at Alabama, which are forgivable.
But the other three all came here at home as favorites, as they were upset by Illinois-Chicago and Penn State out of conference and by Virginia in their ACC opener. The Jackets are also just 3-6 against the spread so far and they are on a four-game ATS losing streak, making them very vulnerable giving this many points.
Now the Bulldogs are not world-beaters, but they have certainly been competitive. Georgia is 9-5 straight up, including going 4-2 in their last six games with one loss being by one point in overtime and covering the spread in the other loss vs. Missouri on Saturday. They have played just on true road game and they played well, gaining the push in a 67-63 loss at Western Kentucky as four-point dogs.
We look for Georgia to play hard again tonight and take this ACC lightweight down to the wire.
Pick: Georgia +7
Larry Ness
Miami (OH) @ Dayton
PICK: Miami (OH)
The 13-1 Dayton Flyers will try to remain perfect at home (9-0) when they host the Miami-Ohio RedHawks at Dayton Arena. The RedHawks had a tough schedule at the start of the season, opening at Pauley Pavilion for the first round of the 2K Sports Classic. Miami edged Weber St in its first game but then lost to UCLA. The team remained on the road losing at Pittsburgh, winning at Wright St, losing at Xavier and winning at Temple. The team has won FIVE of six including that Temple game, losing only at West Va in that stretch. The Rehawks are not deep and miss the 6-6 Tim Pollitz (15.5-7.1) from LY's team. The 6-5 Bramos (19.0-4.0) is the team's best player but senior guard Hayes (13.9), the team's only other double-digit scorer, will undergo surgery for a wrist injury and will be out for quite some time. The 6-8 Dierkers (8.5-7.1) is the team's best big man with vets Eric Pollitz (5.4) and Winbush (5.1) making contributions. The Flyers lost leading scorer Roberts (18.4) from LY's 23-11 team but the 6-8 Wright (12.1-6.6), whose injury caused him to miss the second half of last season, is back healthy. He's joined in the frontcourt by the 6-6 Little (7.5-4.2) and the 6-10 Huelsman (4.3-5.0). Marcus Johnson (11.7) and Warren (4.5-3.9 APG) start in the backcourt with guard Lowery (7.4) and 6-5 swingman Chris Johnson (7.1-5.8) making the most 'noise' off the bench. The Flyers are 24-3 SU at home since the beginning of last year but this a bitter rivalry (127th meeting). Miami plays excellent defense (allows 61.1 PPG) and plays a deliberate style of offense. These two schools have battled hard throughout the years and I'm taking the points.
Ron Raymond
Purdue -2.5 / Penn St.
My ATS numbers have Purdue winning tonight by 7.37 points and my PVI Rating index numbers have the Boilermakers covering the spread with a 61% probability factor compared to 29% for the Nittany Lions.
Gimme the loot.
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