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January 7th, 2009 02:44 PM #1
The Hand of Justice
Service Plays Wednesday
Larry Ness
Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (9*)
"The little school" from the state of Washington has made quite an impression on the CBB 'landscape' the last decade, making 10 straight NCAA appearances. Mark Few has led the Bulldogs the last nine seasons, taking a 236-60 (.797) mark into this year. The Bulldogs opened 7-0 this season but have fallen on hard times, losing FOUR of their last five, including three in a row. Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, Tennessee, where the No. 15 Volunteers (9-3) own a 37-game winning streak (dates back to March 1, 2006), is not exactly the perfect setting to get things "back on track." It's made worse by the fact that the Bulldogs gave the Volunteers their first loss of the season back on Nov 30 at the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, Fla (83-74). Tennessee shot just 35.5 percent in that game, while Gonzaga made 51.9 percent of its shots, including 11-of-20 from 'long distance.' Things haven't been "smooth sailing" for the Vols either as of late, having lost 88-71 at Temple (?) on Dec 13 and 92-85 this past Saturday at Kansas. I'm not quite sure what's going on with Gonzaga, as the Zags have two excellent 6-11 players in Heytvelt (14.9-6.4) and Daye (12.5-6.1) plus a terrific PG in Pargo (10.1-3.8-6.9), who was LY's WCC player of the year. Pargo has a trio of big guards on the perimeter with him, in the 6-5 Bouldin (11.3), the 6-5 Gray (10.4-3.8) and the 6-7 Downs (9.3-4.9). That's the type of lineup which would have given LY's Tennessee team fits but TY's team is better equipped to handle Gonzaga's size on the perimeter. Tennessee had a school-best 31 wins last season and even held the No. 1 ranking for a week (after winning at unbeaten Memphis) but with three 6-1 or 6-2 guards on the perimeter LY, the Vols were vulnerable and they got 'bounced' in the Sweet 16 by Louisville. TY, Pearl starts the 6-2 Maze (9.9-4.4 APG) at guard along with the 6-4 Tabb (4.0) and 6-7 freshman Hopson (9.0). LY's sixth-man-of-the-year in the SEC, the 6-7 Prince (10.2-3.8), plus 6-6 redshirt freshman Tatum (9.3) are also getting plenty of minutes on the perimeter. Up front, the 6-7 Tyler Smith (17.3-5.9) and the 6-9 Chism (12.3-8.5) are the "main guys," with 6-8 freshman Woolridge (6.3-29) "learning the ropes." The first time around, the Vols outrebounded Gonzaga 46-23 but couldn't overcome their poor shooting or the Bulldogs' "lights-out" shooting. Here in the "friendly confines," the outcome will be much different. Gonzaga's lost to a mediocre Arizona team in Phoenix and even at home to Portland State. The linemakers have NOT adjusted enough to the "demise of the Bulldogs."
Oddsmaker's Error on Tennessee
Weekly Wipeout Winner - NCAA
Tulane was a HUGE surprise last year, getting off to a 15-6 start. However, the Green Wave faded badly, losing NINE of their last 11 games. Tulane has just one double digit scorer this year, in guard Sims (12.2-3.8 APG). He's joined in the backcourt by Richard (9.0) and the team's frontcourt consists of three 6-7 players, Louisme (9.5-6.8), McQueen (8.2-5.4) and Puckett (7.6-5.4). ECU is off an 11-19 season and lost four starters, which was good news. The lone returning starter is guard Hinnant and he's played very well, averaging 15.5 PPG and 4.5 RPG. He's joined in the backcourt by two reserves from LY, Legan (13.3) and Young (11.2-8.1 APG), with both playing much better than expected to open this season. The 6-10 Wynn (8.6-5.1) is the lone big man in the starting lineup but 6-8 freshman Morrow (10.1-7.9) is making a big "first impression." The other starter is 6-5 swingman Abrams (7.9-4.0), giving ECU a much better than expected group of six players in its main rotation (not much depth). The Pirates started 8-1 but enter their C-USA opener on a four-game losing streak. However, it should be noted that THREE of those losses have come against ACC teams, although the team's "sad-sack" effort at Coastal Carolina was nothing to be proud of. All that said, I like ECU here, as the Pirates have an excellent perimeter game (against this level of competition) plus Wynn and Morrow should not have too much trouble with Tulane's "mediocre at best," frontline. The Green Wave are 0-4 SU on the road TY, losing by 25 points at Texas and Auburn, while losing at New Orleans (a SBC team which is only 6-8) by 10 and George Mason by eight. Tulane won both meetings with ECU last year but the "new-look" Pirates are the much better team this time around.
Weekly Wipeout Winner on East Carolina
7* MVC Showdown
Barry Hinson tried but couldn't get Missouri St an invite to the "Big Dance" in nine years of trying. In both 2006 and 2007 his Bears had 22 wins with RPI's of 21 and 36, respectively but the school got shut out. A 17-16 season last year, "sealed his fate." Cuonzo Martin, former Purdue player and recent assistant coach at his alma mater, was hired. The Bears opened 7-3 under Martin but the team has dropped four in a row, including the first three games in its MVC schedule (not good news). Leading scorer, 6-4 senior swingman Chris Cooks (12.1-5.6), has missed the last three games witha concussion and is expected to miss again here. Missouri State has some decent size in its frontcourt, now that 6-9 Boston U center Creekmore (9.7-6.0) is eligible (he's played the last six games). Joining him inside are the 6-8 Knapp (9.5-5.0), 6-6 freshman Weems (9.4-3.9) and the 6-6 Jehle (5.1-4.6). Laurie (10.8-2.4-2.9), McFarland (6.0) and Fuehrmeyer (5.3) comprise the backcourt rotation. Evansville basketball has been in a slump for awhile and head coach Marty Simmons went just 9-21 in his first year with the Purple Aces. However, his team is 10-3 to open this year, 2-1 in MVC play. That's quite an improvement, as he's already exceeded last year's win total. The Purple Aces can't match Missouri State's size inside but senior swingman Ely (17.8-6.4) and PG Holsinger (12.6) will likely be the game's two-best players. Williams (6.3-4.3-4.6) and Lacey (5.6-3.1-2.4) are solid perimeter players plus senior swingman Garner (10.0-6.4) and 6-7 Haarsma (7.5-4.8) will help Ely out in the frontcourt. Evansville has some size in the 6-11 van Tongeren (5.1-2.7) but I wouldn't count on him too much. Evansville has been perfect at home TY, going 9-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. That includes an impressive 72-40 win over Western Kentucky, a program which has topped 20 wins in each of the last four seasons, including 29 wins LY, as the Hilltoppers reached the Sweet 16. Evansville also owns a home win over Drake (76-65), last year's MVC champs (regular aseson and tourney), a team which won 28 games before losing that classic first-round game to the aforementioned Western Ky in the NCAAs. Evansville beat Missouri St at home last year by 19 points but then lost in Springfield by 38 points and in the MVC tourney, 69-46. The Purple Aces are playing with confidence right now at Roberts Stadium and the Bears (especially sans Cook), are no match.
MVC Showdown on Evansville
Gimme the loot.
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January 7th, 2009 02:45 PM #2
The Hand of Justice
Gold Medal Club
Louisville -10.5 (HUGE)
Delaware +4 and Straight up money line.
Las Vegas Sport Picks
NBA
1* Heat +6
1* Bobcats +14
2* Pacers +10
2* Pistons +3
NCAAB
1* Michigan -6
2* William & Mary -4
2* South Florida +10
NHL
2* Oilers -120
JASON JOHNSON
ORLANDO at ATLANTA
PICK: ATLANTA -1
The Hawks are back on a roll and have now won seven of the last eight games with their only loss coming to the Nets in Jersey in OT. Atlanta shoots better from the field, the arc, and the stripe than the Magic and they have already topped the Magic once this season by 14 in Orlando.
Give the points in a home win.
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: JAZZ (minus the points vs. Hornets)
5 Dime: MICHIGAN (minus the points vs. Indiana)
5 Dime: TENNESSEE (minus the points vs. Gonzaga)
Jazz
One word: Letdown. That’s the situation the Hornets are in. Last night, behind sensational performances from David West (40 points, 11 rebounds) and Chris Paul (32 points, 15 assists) and a dominating fourth quarter (27-13), the Hornets trounced the Lakers 116-105, becoming just the second team this season to win on Kobe’s home court. Now, after a late-night flight to Salt Lake, New Orleans has to play the rested Jazz (13-4 at home) and deal with a big change in altitude. It’s something the Hornets haven’t handled very well in recent years, as they’ve lost four straight games in Salt Lake (0-3-1 ATS) by an average of 21 points per game!
Overall, New Orleans is 1-5 in its last six games against the Jazz, and since dynamic point guards Paul and Utah’s Deron Williams entered the league, the Hornets are 2-8 against the Jazz. Also, the home team has cashed at a 6-2-1 ATS clip in the last nine meetings and the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six.
Now, there’s no doubt which team is playing better basketball right now, as the Hornets have won five of their last six and 16 of their last 21, while the Jazz are just 5-6 in their last 11 games. But as I’ve often stated, the NBA, more times than not, is more about situations than streaks. It’s why I backed the Bobcats last night against the Celtics, who were in the midst of a brutal 10-game, 18-day stretch were eight of the 10 contests were played on the road.
Well, in this one, Utah should be quite rested, as it has played just three games since Dec. 27, two of them at home, Meanwhile, New Orleans is completing a four-game, six-day road trip, with the first three being played against playoff-caliber opponents (Blazers, Nuggets, Lakers).
Also, the Jazz have won three in a row and five of six in Salt Lake, with victory margins of 27, 9, 9, 17 and 5 points. As for New Orleans, despite last night’s impressive win in Hollywood, it is still just 10-6 SU and 7-8-1 ATS on the road this year. Also, prior to last night, the Hornets had failed to cash in five straight games as an underdog, and they’re just 3-4 ATS in back-to-back situations this year (conversely, Utah is 13-6 ATS when playing after one day off, including 4-0 ATS in the last four in that spot).
New Orleans has averaged – averaged! – just 81.3 ppg in its last four trips to Utah, and dare I guess that in none of those four were the Hornets less than 24 hours removed from their biggest win of the season or playing their fourth road game in six nights. Clearly, this is a terrible spot for the Hornets, and their win in Los Angeles last night definitely got Utah’s attention. Lay the chalk.
Michigan
Kudos to Indiana for finding a way to hang with Iowa in Saturday’s Big Ten opener (65-60 loss as a 13-point underdog). But I wasn’t fooled, as the Hoosiers are still in for a looonggg conference season with a roster loaded with bench guys and walk-ons. They come into this game against surprising Michigan having lost four in a row and six of their last seven, including home defeats to – are you ready for this? – Lipscomb (74-69) and Northeastern (55-42). I know this Indiana program has pretty much hit rock bottom, but that’s downright ridiculous to lose to those two schools in Bloomington (and it makes me wonder if Iowa played the Hoosiers 4-on-5 or something).
Michigan comes into this contest with an 11-3 record (6-2-1 ATS in betting games), as the Wolverines have obviously turned the corner in the second year under talented coach John Beilein (formerly of West Virginia). Among those 11 victories are impressive wins over Top 15 foes UCLA (55-52) and Duke (81-73), and the same Northeastern team that won at Indiana lost 76-56 in Ann Arbor back in early November.
The Wolverines bounced back from a Big Ten-opening loss to Wisconsin (73-61) by rolling over Illinois 74-64 as a 1½-point home chalk Sunday. And a quick peek at the stat box shows advantages for Michigan up and down the line, as the Wolverines average 73.5 points per game (Indiana averages 60.2 ppg); shoot 44.1 percent from the field and 35 percent from 3-point land (Indiana checks in at 41.9 percent overall and 29.3 from downtown); make 77.8 percent of their free throws (Indiana makes 66.7 percent); and they allow only 63.8 ppg on 42.3 percent shooting (Indiana gives up 68.5 ppg on 46.5 percent).
With no real look-ahead to worry about with Michigan (its next game is against Iowa at home Sunday, this one’s a no-brainer. Wolverines cruise by double digits.
Erin Rynning
Miami
Milwaukee
Washington
Gonzaga
Gimme the loot.
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January 7th, 2009 02:45 PM #3
The Hand of Justice
SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Davidson (10-2, 4-6 ATS) at (2) Duke (12-1, 8-4 ATS)
More than a year after taking Duke to the wire on a neutral court, Stephen Curry and Davidson get another crack at the Blue Devils, this time inside intimidating Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The Wildcats fell out of the Top 25 following an ugly 76-58 loss at Purdue as a five-point underdog on Dec. 20, but they’ve since rebounded to win their last two at Charleston (79-75) and against Samford at home (76-55). However, Davidson failed to cover in both contests and it is now in an 0-4 ATS funk. Curry continues to lead the nation in scoring at 29.2 points per game, pouring in more than 20 in all but two contests to this point.
Duke has vaulted to No. 2 in the rankings courtesy of a four-game winning streak (3-0 ATS). On Sunday, the Blue Devils opened ACC play with their best defensive performance of the season in a a 69-44 rout of Virginia Tech, covering easily as a 17-point home favorite. During the winning streak – all by 18 points or more – Duke has averaged 85.5 ppg and given up 53.8 ppg.
These regional rivals meet every season, and Duke has won the last 21 in a row. Last year, though, Davidson gave the Blue Devils all they could handle before falling 79-73 as an eight-point underdog in Charlotte. The Wildcats were able to hang in the game despite a relatively tame 20-point effort from Curry. Duke is just 4-3 ATS in the last seven series clashes, while the designated home team has cashed in five straight meetings.
Both squads can fill the bucket, with Davidson averaging 80.1 ppg on 43.6 percent shooting and the Blue Devils putting up 82.8 ppg (48.1 percent). The Wildcats have scored 72 or more in eight of their 10 contests, while Duke had topped 70 points in every game before Sunday’s 69-point effort against Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils have scored 80 or more eight times.
On defense, Davidson yields 68.8 ppg (39.5 percent) and Duke surrenders just 60.2 ppg (39.2 percent), holding nine of 13 opponents to 60 or less.
In addition to its current 0-4 ATS rut, Davidson is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games against the ACC and 2-6 ATS in its last eight on Wednesday. However, the Wildcats remain on positive pointspread stretches of 44-20 on the road, 10-4 in non-conference games, 45-21-1 after a SU win and 48-17-2 after an ATS setback.
Duke is on a slew of ATS tears, including 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 in non-conference play and 7-1 against Southern Conference foes, but the Devils are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 Wednesday outings.
For Davidson, the under is on stretches of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in non-league action, 10-1 against the ACC and 5-0 versus teams with a winning record. For Duke, the under is on runs of 13-4 overall, 14-3 in front of the Cameron Crazies, 35-17 in non-ACC action, 8-2 against the Southern Conference and 10-4 after a SU win. Lastly, the past five meetings between these rivals have stayed under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Gonzaga (8-4, 5-5 ATS) at (15) Tennessee (9-3, 6-4 ATS)
Having tumbled out of the Top 25 after three consecutive surprising loses, Gonzaga now has to travel across the country for a second meeting this season with 15th-ranked and revenge-minded Tennessee, this one at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville.
The Bulldogs’ slide began with an 88-83 overtime loss to UConn as a 3½-point favorite Dec. 20 near its home in Seattle. After that, Gonzaga got stunned by Portland State 77-70 as a 21½-point home chalk, then went to Utah a week ago tonight and fell 66-65 as a five-point road choice. It’s just the second time in eight years that the Zags have endured a three-game losing streak, and going back to Dec. 14, they’re in a 1-4 SU and 0-4 ATS slump. Mark Few’s team is still averaging 76.1 ppg on 46.7 percent shooting, while allowing 63.5 ppg (37.7 percent).
The Volunteers are coming off their own disappointing defeat, falling at Kansas on Saturday 92-85 as a three-point road underdog, halting a 3-0 run (2-0 ATS). Tennessee still ranks seventh in the nation in scoring at 84.6 ppg – putting up 72 points or more in every game – but the Vols are allowing 73.8 ppg, including 62 or more in every contest. However, in six home games (all wins), Bruce Pearl’s squad is netting an astounding 90 ppg (49 percent shooting) while surrendering 69.2 ppg.
Gonzaga handed the Vols their first loss of the season back on Nov. 30 at a preseason tournament in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., rolling 83-74 in a pick-em contest. Last season, the Bulldogs hosted Tennessee in Seattle and lost 82-72 as a 1½-point underdog.
Tennessee is on ATS streaks of 4-0-1 at home, 7-3 after a non-cover and 36-17 on Wednesday. Conversely, the Bulldogs are in pointspread dips of 0-4 overall, 0-4 versus winning teams, 1-7 against the SEC, 1-4 on the road and 2-5 after an outright loss.
The under is on runs of 7-3 for Gonzaga overall, 5-2 for Gonzaga on the road, 5-2 for Tennessee following a SU loss and 2-0 in the two meetings between these schools since December 2007. However, the over is 4-0 in the Vols’ last four games on Wednesday and 4-1 for the Bulldogs after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
NBA
Orlando (27-8, 22-12-1 ATS) at Atlanta (22-11, 19-13-1 ATS)
Two of the hottest teams in the league kick off this week’s two-game home-and-home series, with the Magic first visiting Philips Arena for a battle with the Hawks.
Orlando dumped Washington 89-80 last night, winning its ninth consecutive home game but coming up short as a 12½-point favorite. The Magic are on runs of 18-4 SU and 16-5 ATS, and the winner had covered the spread in 11 straight Orlando games prior to last night. Stan Van Gundy’s group is 12-4 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the highway.
Atlanta has been off since Saturday’s 103-100 victory over Houston, though it came up short as a 5½-point home chalk. The Hawks are on a 10-2 SU run, but they’ve followed up a 13-4 ATS roll by failing to cash in their last two outings. Atlanta has won 15 of its 17 games at Philips Arena (9-8 ATS), including six consecutive victories coming into tonight (4-2 ATS).
These teams opened the season against each other in Orlando on Oct. 29, with the Hawks stealing a 99-85 upset victory as an eight-point underdog. Atlanta has won five of the last seven series meetings both SU and ATS, and the winner has covered in each of the last 10 battles. Furthermore, the Hawks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven when hosting the Magic, and the underdog is 5-2 ATS during this stretch.
Despite not covering last night against the Wizards, Orlando is still on a bunch of positive ATS runs, including 19-8-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 20-8-1 on Wednesday, 7-1 versus winning teams and 5-1 when playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, Atlanta also carries several positive ATS streaks, including 9-4 overall, 5-2 at home, 6-2 on Wednesdays, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 6-1 against winning teams and 4-1 when playing on three or more days of rest.
In this rivalry, the under is on runs of 7-3 overall and 5-2 in Atlanta. Also, the under is 24-11 in Orlando’s last 34 against the Eastern Conference, 20-7-1 in Orlando’s last 27 against Southeast Division rivals, 12-5-1 in Orlando’s last 18 on Wednesday, 8-3-1 in Atlanta’s last 11 against the East and 5-0-1 in Atlanta’s last six divisional contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
Houston (21-15, 16-20 ATS) at Boston (29-7, 19-17 ATS)
The reeling Celtics take the court for the third time since Sunday when they make a quick stop at home for a battle with the Rockets, who have struggle so far on a five-game, eight-day Eastern Conference road swing.
Boston went to Charlotte last night and lost 114-106 in overtime as a 9½-point road favorite. Since ripping off a franchise-record 19 consecutive victories, the Celtics are just 2-5 SU and ATS, and last night marked the team’s sixth road game in its last seven contests since Dec. 25, and Doc Rivers’ squad hits the road for two more games after this one. On the bright side, the defending champs are 18-1 SU and 12-7 ATS at TD Banknorth Garden this season.
Houston kicked off its five-game journey with consecutive losses at Toronto (94-73 as a five-point chalk) and Atlanta (103-100 as a 5½-point underdog), then went to Philadelphia last night tumbled 104-96 as a three-point road favorite. The Rockets have followed up an 8-2 run (6-4 ATS) by going 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight. They’ve also now lost five straight road games (1-4 ATS), dropping to 10-11 (11-10 ATS) on the highway for the season.
The Celtics went to Houston on Nov. 4 and held on for a 103-99 upset victory as a three-point underdog. Boston has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) against the Rockets, but the visitor is 7-3 SU an 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series battles (5-0 ATS last five), and the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine (3-0 last three). Finally, Houston has cashed in six of its last seven trips to Beantown, the lone exception coming last year.
In addition to their ongoing 1-7 ATS nosedive, the Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last five versus the Eastern Conference and 0-4 ATS in their past four Wednesday outings. Boston is on ATS tears of 4-0 at home, 9-1 against the Southwest Division, 21-8 against the Western Conference and 31-15-1 when playing on back-to-back nights, but the C’s have failed to cash in four straight games against winning teams and five of seven on Wednesday.
The over is on streaks of 12-3 for Houston on the road, 13-5-1 for Houston against the Atlantic Division, 4-0 for Houston when playing on consecutive nights, 4-0 for Boston at home, 6-2 for Boston on Wednesday and 10-4 for Boston versus the Southwest Division. Conversely, the under is on runs of 10-1 for the Rockets on Wednesday, 5-2 for the Celtics overall, 6-0-1 for the Celtics against the West and 4-0 for the Celtics when playing back-to-back games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Detroit (21-11, 14-18 ATS) at Portland (20-14, 16-18 ATS)
The Pistons go for their eighth consecutive victory overall and their third straight on the highway when they resume a four-game Western Conference road trip at the Rose Garden in Portland.
Detroit kicked off its weeklong journey with Sunday’s narrow 88-87 win at the Clippers, falling short as a six-point favorite. Despite their recent surge, the Pistons are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. Although they’re averaging only 89 ppg in their last six outings, they’re giving up just 83.3 ppg during this stretch.
Portland dropped its second in a row SU and ATS at the Lakers on Sunday night, falling 100-86 as an 11-point underdog. Since a six-game winning streak that ended on Dec. 5 in Boston, the Trail Blazers are just 6-8 in their last 14 games. They’re also in a 5-11 ATS slump, though all five spread-covers occurred in their last nine home games.
These teams have alternated SU wins and losses in their last six meetings, but Portland has gotten the money in six of the last seven battles, all as an underdog. That includes a 96-85 upset win as a four-point road pup on Nov. 8. The visitor has cashed in five of the last six clashes.
The Pistons have covered in five straight games on Wednesday, but otherwise it is on ATS slides of 0-4 against the Western Conference, 0-4 against the Northwest Division, 1-4 when playing on two days of rest and 1-4 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, despite its current 4-11 ATS rut, the Blazers are still 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home contests and 6-2 ATS in their past eight Wednesday affairs.
The under is 6-1 in the last six meetings in this rivalry. Additionally, Portland carries “under” streaks of 15-5 overall, 9-4 at home, 7-3 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 versus the Central Division and 41-18-1 when playing on Wednesday. Lastly, the under for Detroit is on runs of 16-7 overall, 7-2 on the highway, 4-0 on Wednesday, 8-3 after a SU win, 11-4 after an ATS setback and 5-1 when going on two days of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Gimme the loot.
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January 7th, 2009 02:46 PM #4
The Hand of Justice
Dave Cokin
Missouri State @ Evansville
Play: Evansville -8
Sometimes the trends are just too lopsided to ignore and that's the case tonight as Missouri State visits Evansville. The Bears are simply terrible as road dogs. Evansville is an amazing 17-3 ATS as chalk. Add in the road team possibly missing one of their better players tonight, and I have to look for the home favorite to get the money. Go with Evansville.
James Patrick
Marquette vs. Rutgers
The Golden Eagles of Marquette hit the road off a home stand and when the Golden Eagles travel off 3 or more home games they are just 1-4 ATS. The Scarlett Knights have played well of late against some quality competition and are 4-1 ATS in their past 5. Our selection in NCAA Basketball Wednesday action is Rutgers Scarlett Knights in Big East action.
Bobby Maxwell
Orlando +1 at ATLANTA
This should be an entertaining home-and-home series between two of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference. We're going to play Orlando to get this one as this team has really matured into a legit contender.
The Magic beat Washington 89-80 on Tuesday and they are on runs of 18-4 SU and 16-5 ATS and Orlando has gone 12-4 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games on the road. Dwight Howard should have his way against Atlanta as they just don't have any big men that will be able to keep him off the glass.
Atlanta hasn't played since Saturday when they beat Houston 103-100 but came up short as a 5 1/2-point favorite. The Hawks are 15-2 at home but they are just 9-8 ATS.
The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams and Orlando will be looking for some payback from an opening-season loss to the Hawks, falling 99-85 as an eight-point home favorite.
Orlando is on ATS runs of 19-8-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 7-1 against winning teams and 20-8-1 on Wednesdays. We love the Magic to get the win and cash our ticket tonight.
3♦ ORLANDO
Jimmy The Moose
New Orleans Hornets at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Utah Jazz
The Hornets are 6-8-1 ATS on the road this season. In their last 16 games as a road dog of 5-10.5 the Hornets are 3-13 ATS. In their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record the Hornets are 7-19-2 ATS. New Orleans comes into this one 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. Utah is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall. In their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents they are 8-3 ATS. Utah is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings overall between the clubs. The Hornets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Utah. Play on the Jazz -.
Scott Spreitzer
DePaul at Syracuse
Pick: Syracuse
I'm laying the points with the Orange on Wednesday. Syracuse has suffered a couple of recent injuries, but it won't hurt them against Depaul. Eric Devendorf (hip) is listed as questionable. But stud forward Paul Harris (finger) returned to practice and he's expected to play. Syracuse already knows what it's like to play without Devendorf, winning both games he missed, including a road victory over Memphis. Tonight, they'll face a "scattered" Depaul team, if you will. Coach Jerry Wainwright came into his fourth season at Depaul with a 43-48, three-year record. Many in Chicago expected bigger things for this program than Wainwright has been able to deliver. The reason is simple...it doesn't seem like there's much coaching going on with this team. I saw Depaul twice in person a couple of weeks ago, including their loss to Creighton. The Blue Demons own some quality athletes, and Dar Tucker may be one of the best sophomores in the college game. But in both games I attended, it was basically a case of "roll the ball on the court and have at it." I'm not exaggerating. The team lacks focus and it starts at the top. Boeheim v. Wainwright is a complete and utter mismatch! No less than FIVE Syracuse players average over 11 ppg. There is plenty of guard talent to step-up if Devendorf can't play. And, just like in the win at Memphis, if the junior guard misses the game, it'll force the rest of the team to pick up their game. Depaul has dropped three of their last four and they're just 4-7 following a 4-0 start. The Blue Demons truly struggle outside of Rosemont. They're 2-5 SU in their last seven road & neutral site games. In those seven outings, Depaul is averaging four more turnovers per game than assists. In fact, they're dishing out just 9.7 apg! The ultra-low assist average is another indicator of the individual concept caused by Wainwright's lack of coaching. Depaul has averaged just 21.8 made FGs per game at 38.7% away from home. And, they're making just 23.6% of their three point attempts. The team also struggles at the charity stripe. Depaul was 13-of-24 in the loss to Creighton, and they had one three-game away stretch where they hit just 26-of-51 FTA! Syracuse can feast on Depaul's lack of fundamentals whether Devendorf plays or not. Even at this number, I believe the Orange are under-valued. I'm laying the points with Syracuse on Wednesday.
Brian Hansen
New Orleans Hornets at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Utah Jazz
Utah is coming off a great 119-114 victory over the Jazz and I look for them to carry that momentum into tonights game vs. the Hornets who are coming off a satisfied victory on the road over the Lakers last night. Utah is a perfect 5-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 190 and 194 1/2 points and I look for that strong trend to continue tonight; play on UTAH!
Gimme the loot.
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January 7th, 2009 02:47 PM #5
The Hand of Justice
Nostradamus
Utah -5
Louisiville -10
Hofstra -3.5
Cincinnati -3.5
Tulane +7.5
Davidson +13.5
Indiana St +13.5
Northwestern +8
JIM FEIST
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES / NEW JERSEY NETS
Take NEW JERSEY NETS
The Nets are rested and home, as well as off a win. Vince Carter scored 29 points, Yi Jianlian added 22 points and a season-high 13 rebounds and the Nets limited Sacramento to 36 second-half points in a 98-90 win on Monday. "Yi was tremendous for us, not only putting the ball in the basket, but giving us extra possessions with his aggressiveness, and blocking a couple of shots," Carter said. "It was great to see." New Jersey outrebounded Sacramento 53-38! While New Jersey is rested, Memphis plays its third game in four nights here, plus the second of a back to back spot. The Grizzlies are decent at home, but just 2-13 on the road, something common with young teams. Play the Nets.
Vegas Experts
Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta has done quite well for themselves in this Southeast Division rivalry, winning and covering six of the last nine meetings, including an opening night win in Orlando. Overall, the Hawks are 6-0 in division play this season. They have been off since Saturday while this is the Magic's third game in four nights. Atlanta is too strong a home team (15-2 SU) to be laying this short a number against an unrested foe, no matter what the team.
Play on: Atlanta
Carlo Campanella
Gonzaga at Tennessee
Tennessee (9-3) hosts Gonzaga (8-4) on Wednesday in one of their most profitable role- The Vols are 13-1 ATS at home after facing a Non-conference foe. Willing to lay the small number as Tennesse has won 3 of their last 4 games and is an unbeaten 6-0 at home this season. That loss came in their last game, an 85-92 road loss at Kansas. Gonzaga has shockingly lost 3 straight games- ALL as Favorites- And finds themselves in the Dog role for the first time this year. Tennessee has NOT LOST back-to-back games this year and it won't happen on Wednesday at home. Good luck - Carlo Campanella
Play on: Tennessee
Sports Gambling Hotline
Oklahoma City +6' at MINNESOTA
Minnesota is playing their best string of basketball, as they come into this home game having won 3 in a row, and 4 of their last 5, while covering in ALL 5.
They may extend their winning streak to 4 straight, as Oklahoma City is just 1-15 straight up on the road, but getting the cover as the home favorite will be another story.
Oklahoma City did win last night at home against the Knicks, and on the road the Thunder is 8-1 against the spread their last 9 games, and 12-4 overall against the spread on the highway this season.
These teams are meeting for the third time this season, and the first two meetings in Oklahoma City were decided by 2, and 3 points.
We expect another close one tonight among the NBA's bottom-feeders.
Play on the Thunder plus the points.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Gimme the loot.
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January 7th, 2009 02:47 PM #6
The Hand of Justice
Karl Garrett
NC Charlotte at DUQUESNE -3'
Tonight in college buckets, lay the small home wood with Duquesne, as the Iron Dukes are looking for some revenge on NC Charlotte.
The 49ers have taken the last pair of meetings against the Iron Dukes, including their last visit to the Steel City, 99-90 back in 2007.
Bobby Lutz' team has not performed well on the road this season, as the 49ers are just 2-5 both straight up, and against the spread on the highway thus far, and they are fresh off a road loss at Maryland.
Duquesne brings a 4-game winning streak into tonight's action, and they are 5-2 straight up at home, and 4-1 against the spread at home this year.
The Dukes are up to the 9 win mark on the young season, and tonight they notch win #10, and also cover the impost.
Take Duquesne.
3♦ DUQUESNE
Gimme the loot.
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January 7th, 2009 02:50 PM #7
The Hand of Justice
GINA
Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks
Two hot teams square off at Philips Arena. Orlando has won 10 of their last 12 games and has played well on the road, 12-5 this season. Atlanta has won eight of their last 10 games and is 15-2 at home. Go with the Hawks at home. Atlanta has won five of the last seven meetings versus Orlando and has won six of the last 7 meetings in Atlanta, going 5-2 ATS.
Atlanta Hawks - 1½
Johnny Guild
New Orleans Hornets at Utah Jazz
The hot Hornets have won three in a row and five of their last 6 games, but will have a big task against the Jazz in Salt Lake City. Take Utah to cool down New Orleans at Energy Solutions Arena. The Jazz have won five of their last six games at home and have beaten the Hornets in five of the last six clashes in Utah, 4-2 ATS.
Utah Jazz -5
NCAAB
Duke Blue Devils -13.5
Wisconsin Badgers -7.5
Steve O'Brian
Houston Rockets vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Under 184.5
Well guys, we enjoyed another easy winner last night here as the underdog TCU Horned Frogs got the outright victory for us over Texas Tech. I take pride in my record for the free picks section and I am putting out another courtesy selection for you tonight. I'm going back to the NBA and a totals play for wednesday. I suggest you play under 184.5 in the Celtics-Rockets matchup. The Celtics have come in under in 7 of their past 8 games in back to back situations. I look for that trend to continue tonight. Good luck guys and be sure and take a serious look at my early bird NFL offer, it truly is a great value. Enjoy guys!
Alex Smart
Northwestern @ Wisconsin
PICK: Northwestern
The Northwestern Wildcats (8-4,0-2) enter into this contest against Big 10 defending champions Wisconsin at the Kohl Center, off a couple of hard fought close losses at Penn State and Michigan State .
The Badgers (11-3, 2-0) are tied for first place with Michigan State in the conference and are off a closely contested 65-61 home win over Penn State in their last trip to the court this past weekend.
Despite of the contradictory records ,Northwestern matches up pretty well against every team in this conference, behind a D , that is currently the best in the Big Ten and ranked fifth in all of NCAA Division , allowing an average of 55.5 points per game .
The Wildcats because of their grit look like a very viable side to back getting points, as is evident by gaging the margin of defeat in their 4 losses , which have come by an average of just 6.25 PPG.
Final notes & Key Trends: Northwestern is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their L/6 road games as a underdog of between 6.5 to 12 points . The Wildcats have covered 4 of the L/5 meetings.
Play on Northwestern to cover
Nite Owl Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Pick: 3 units: Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5
In one of our recent complimentary picks for the Top Ten newsletter, we pointed out how the Okla City Thunder has become a virtual ATM machine when playing on the road TY, and like that "energizer bunny" you see on the TV ads, they just keep going, and going, and going -- they are now 12-4 ATS in their 16 road games so far this year. And with them playing Minny, a fellow NBA bottom feeder but with a losing ATS record overall and a horrible home ATS record of 5-11 TY, you would think that the geniuses who set these lines would have this game at about 3 or 3.5, but no, there the game is on wednesday's "card," with that nice fat line of 6 or 6.5, just tempting us to take Okie and all those points. Well, guess what? We'll take the bait and run with it, all the way to the bank after we cash our victorious Okie ticket later tonite after this game is in the books. OK, enough talk, how about some stats and numbers supporting this pick -- right, you've got it.
We'll start with fact that these two have played two very close games TY, both in Okla City, one won by each side, and we expect another close one, but this time we're getting 6.5 points. And Okie players should have confidence playing at Target Center, as they have won SU there the L3 times they played during L2 seasons, although these same Okie players were wearing Seattle Sonics uniforms in those games. While most of Okie's road ATS success TY has come as a double digit dog, Thunder has been decent as well as a single digit road dog against TY's "dregs" of the NBA, with a 3-2 ATS record and average MOL (margin of loss) of just 4 points in those 5 road games vs the NBA's bottom feeders. And while Minny is a credible 2-2 ATS as a home fave vs C teams like Thunder, with an avearge MOV (margin of victory) of just one point in those 4 games, they should be 1-3, and would be if Memphis hadn't blown a late sizable lead in last two minutes of the game and eventually lost to T-Wolves in OT.
Another factor favoring Okie is that both teams are playing w/o rest, and both had to travel last night to get to Minny for this game. However, that's where the similarity ends, as Minny is an ugly 0-3 ATS at home in "no rest games," while Okie is a solid 5-3 ATS away in that no rest mode. And finally, we have the fact that both teams are coming off a rare win, something that has happened only 4 times so far for Okie and 7 for Minny. But Okie has recovered better than minny from their post-win celebrations, as Okie is 3-1 ATS after a SU win, while Minny is just 2-5 ATS.
So based on the above, we believe that we have more than enough to justify this 3 unit pick at +6 or +6.5. And when first half lines come out Wed AM, we'll be considering a possible first half pick on Okie as well.
Ted Sevransky
Charlotte @ Duquesne
PICK: Charlotte
Charlotte got off to a terrible start this year. Coming off a 20 win season, with four returning starters, perhaps they read too many of their own press clippings, claiming that they were ready to compete for a Atlantic-10 championship with the likes of Xavier and Dayton. Instead, the 49ers lost six straight following their opening day win. After an overtime loss in their finale of their post Thanksgiving tournament in Anaheim, Charlotte stood at 1-6 SU, a team in disarray.
Since that time, Bobby Lutz has started to work his magic. First, Charlotte won outright at Southern Illinois. Then they won outright at Mississippi State. The 49ers followed up those two impressive road wins with a couple of home blowouts over lesser foes and suddenly, this team is playing with confidence and chemistry. They were tied at Maryland this weekend at the midway point of the second half before the Terps went on one big run to notch the victory, but even in that game, the 49ers regained their composure and notched a push for those who bet it late. Tonight, in their A-10 opener, that composure will suit them well against a team they have handled with ease in all three meetings over the past three seasons.
The Palumbo Center is not one of the stronger home courts in the A-10, to put it mildly. After losing their top five scorers from last years 17 win squad, we can expect a rather significant drop-off from the Dukes as conference play begins tonight. This is a game that Duquesne will struggle to win, let alone winning by any sort of a margin at all. 2* Take Charlotte.
Jeff Benton
Louisville -10' at SOUTH FLORIDA
I’m now on a 36-16 run with free plays -- including 3-0 the last three days -- after last night’s easy winner on the Clippers plus the points versus the Mavs. For Tuesday, we’ll flip back to College Hoops – where I'm 14-5 with my last 19 freebies going back to last season – and lay the big price with Louisville on the road at South Florida.
Frankly, I can’t think of a college basketball team that, to this point in this season, has underachieved more than Louisville. That might seem a bit harsh, given the fact the Cardinals are 9-3 and still ranked in the Top 25. But their three defeats have ranged from surprising (70-64 to Minnesota on a neutral court) to completely unacceptable (68-54 to Western Kentucky; 56-55 to UNLV at home). Even on Sunday, the Cardinals struggled to put away mediocre Kentucky, winning 74-71 but again failing to cover as a 7½-point home favorite (the team’s sixth non-cover in its last seven games).
So what’s my reasoning for backing Rick Pitino’s troops tonight? Well, for one thing, it’s time for this incredibly talented team to get its act together and lay the wood to an opponent, and South Florida is the perfect fodder. The Bulls are just 5-8 this season, including blowout losses to the likes of Oral Roberts, Wright State, Niagra and South Florida. And while South Florida has been able to hang with some of its tougher opponents – five-point loss to Syracuse on Friday; two-point loss at Virginia – this is by far the most gifted foe the Bulls have faced all season. And it’s a gifted foe that is angry and eager to put up an dominating performance.
Finally, not only has Louisville owned this rivalry – and rightfully so – by winning nine of the last 10 meetings including the last seven in a row, but the Cardinals are 8-2 ATS during this run. In seven of those eight spread-covers, Louisville has won by point margins of 20, 20, 26, 45, 19, 10 and 19 points.
The Cardinals are 24-7-2 ATS in their last 33 Big East battles and 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 true road games, while South Florida has failed to cover in 17 of its last 25 Big East contests. Honestly, if Louisville doesn’t win this game by at least 20 points, I’ll be shocked!
4* LOUISVILLE
Gimme the loot.
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January 7th, 2009 02:50 PM #8
The Hand of Justice
Dwayne Bryant
Atlanta Hawks -2
The Hawks have been extremely tough at home, going 15-2 SU. They already own a 14-point road win over the Magic this season. Atlanta is: 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600; 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss; 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less; and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Orlando is 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta. And while the Hawks have had three days to rest, Orlando played at home against the Wizards last night.
Take the Atlanta Hawks -2
Who2beton
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Charlotte Bobcats have gone Under in both head-to-head meetings this season, but we see this third encounter playing out much differently.
The Bobcats have improved offensively as the season has gone on, and they are now averaging 98.3 points over their last 10 games, topping the 100-point mark in six of those games. This has raised their average for the entire season to 91.8 points per game, a figure that is identical both at home and on the road.
We look for the Bobcats to score around that average here, which would mean this game has to go Over this posted total if the Cavaliers win, which we expect. After all, Cleveland is a perfect 13-0 straight up at home, where their games have averaged a combined 194.2 points, nearly 12 points higher than this total.
This number is obviously deflated due to the fact that the first two meetings averaged just a combined 169 points, but we look for a more normal final score here, something in the area of 100-90.
Pick: Bobcats/Cavaliers Over 182.5
Last edited by SteveJanus; January 7th, 2009 at 06:13 PM.
Gimme the loot.
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January 7th, 2009 06:16 PM #9
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