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January 9th, 2009 05:37 PM #1
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January 9th, 2009 05:37 PM #2
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January 9th, 2009 05:38 PM #3
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January 9th, 2009 05:39 PM #4
The Hand of Justice
SPORTS ADVISORS
Atlanta (22-12, 19-15 ATS) at Orlando (28-8, 23-12-1 ATS)
The Hawks seek to avenge Wednesday’s home loss to the Magic when they head east to Orlando in this clash of Southeast Division foes.
Atlanta suffered just its third home loss in 18 games this season when it fell 106-102 to the Magic as a two-point home favorite. It was the Hawks’ third consecutive non-cover following a 13-4 ATS run, but they’re still 10-3 SU in their last 13 games, though 10 of those contests were played at home. Atlanta has scored 102 points or more in five of its last six outings.
With Wednesday’s upset win, the Magic are now 28-6 since staring the year with consecutive losses, which included a season-opening home setback against the Hawks. Orlando has been money in the bank lately, too, going 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games, including 7-2 ATS at home. Speaking of home, Stan Van Gundy’s squad has won 10 in a row inside Amway Arena and is 15-3 on its own floor this season (11-7 ATS). Also, the SU winner is 14-2 ATS in the Magic’s last 16 outings overall.
These rivals have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last six meetings, with the visitor going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three. That includes the Hawks’ 99-85 win in Orlando on opening night as an eight-point underdog. The pup has cashed in six of the last eight series clashes, and Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Amway Arena.
The Hawks are on ATS streaks of 6-2 on the road, 5-0 as an underdog, 11-1 as an underdog of 5 to 10½ points and 4-1 when playing on one day of rest. However, they’re 5-11 ATS in their last 16 divisional battles. Meanwhile, the Magic are on pointspread upticks of 20-8-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 11-4 as a favorite, 11-2 following a SU win, 8-1 against winning clubs and 17-8-1 versus Southeast Division rivals.
The over is 5-1 in Atlanta’s last six games overall, but otherwise the team is on “under” streaks of 6-1-1 on the road, 6-0 on Friday, 6-2-1 as an underdog and 9-1 when playing on one day of rest. For Orlando, the under stretches include 4-0 at home, 10-3 as a favorite, 6-2 on Friday and 20-7-1 against divisional foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Boston (29-8, 19-18 ATS) at Cleveland (28-6, 24-10 ATS)
The freefalling Celtics trek west looking to get back on track and hand the Cavaliers their first home loss of the season in a clash of Eastern Conference powers.
Boston is coming off Wednesday’s 89-85 setback to Houston as a 10-point home favorite, the team’s third consecutive SU and ATS defeat and its sixth loss in the last eight games (2-6 ATS) since reeling off a club-record 19 consecutive wins. The Celtics, who play at Toronto on Sunday, are in the midst of a stretch where they’re playing eight of 10 games on the road in an 18-day span. Doc Rivers’ squad has scored between 83 and 89 points six times during its current 2-6 slump, but it has topped 100 points in 15 of its last 21 victories, including the last five wins in a row.
Cleveland ran its home record to 18-0 SU and 14-4 ATS with Wednesday’s 111-81 rout of Charlotte as a 14-point favorite. Although the Cavaliers have split their last four games, they’re still on a 19-3 roll (16-6 ATS). At home, LeBron James and his crew are outscoring their visitors by an average of 16 points per game (105-89).
These teams played a thrilling seven-game Eastern Conference semifinal series against each other last spring, with Boston prevailing while the Cavaliers went 6-1 ATS. They also opened this season against each other in Boston, with the Celtics winning 90-85 but Cleveland covering as a six-point underdog. The Cavs are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, including six consecutive spread-covers. Going back further, Cleveland is 16-5-2 ATS in the last 23 series clashes (4-1 ATS in the last five at home), but the underdog is on a 10-4-1 ATS roll.
Boston is 37-16 ATS in its last 53 games as underdog (37-14 ATS as a road pup) and 6-1 ATS in its last seven Friday outings. However, the C’s are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road tilts. Cleveland is on ATS tears 36-16 overall, 20-7 at home, 24-8 as a favorite, 11-3 after a double-digit win, 5-0 on Fridays, 21-8 against the Eastern Conference and 19-7 versus the Atlantic Division. The only negatives for the Cavs: They’re 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on one day of rest and 0-4 ATS in their last four following a victory.
Boston has topped the total in four of its last five against Central Division opponents, but is otherwise in the midst of “under” stretches of 6-2 overall, 6-1 on the road, 9-3 on Friday, 9-3 as an underdog and 4-1 when going on one day of rest. For the Cavs, the under is on runs of 4-1 on Friday and 7-2 after a one-day respite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
Detroit (21-12, 15-18 ATS) at Denver (25-12, 21-15-1 ATS)
The Pistons continue a four-game Western Conference road swing with a stop at the Pepsi Center in Denver, as they try to halt the Nuggets’ five-game overall winning streak.
Detroit came up short in Portland on Wednesday, falling 84-83 as a 2½-point underdog, snapping the team’s seven-game winning streak. The Pistons haven’t hit the century mark in scoring in seven straight games, tallying 90 or less six times during this stretch. However, they’ve turned up the heat defensively, allowing just 83.4 ppg over the last seven.
Playing its first game since star forward Carmelo Anthony broke his hand, Denver took care of the Heat 108-97 on Wednesday, cashing as a 5½-point home favorite. Not only are the Nuggets on a five-game winning streak – averaging 116.8 ppg – but they’ve won eight of their last 10 (6-4 ATS), going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home during this run.
The Pistons have won the last four meetings in this rivalry (3-1 ATS), sweeping the season series last year with a 98-93 win in Denver as a two-point underdog and a 136-120 victory at home as a 4½-point chalk. Also, Detroit is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 series tussles (6-2 ATS in its last eight trips to Denver), while the home team is 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine battles. Finally, the SU winner has covered the number in each of the last 10.
Despite cashing in four of its last six overall, Detroit is mired in ATS funks of 0-5 on Friday, 1-4 against both the Western Conference and Northwest Division, 0-5 after a SU loss and 2-7 when playing on one day of rest. The Nuggets are on pointspread streaks of 4-1 at home, 4-1 against the East and 7-1 when playing on one day of rest, but they’re 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine against the Central Division, and they’ve failed to cover in four straight games on Friday.
The under is 9-4 in the last 13 Pistons-Nuggets clashes, including 5-1 in the last six meetings at the Pepsi Center. Additionally, Detroit is on “under” stretches of 5-2 overall, 8-2 on the road, 4-1 against Northwest Division foes and 10-3 after a SU loss. Conversely, the Nuggets carry nothing but “over” trends, including 8-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-0 when playing on one day of rest, 13-3 after a SU win, 10-3 on Friday, 49-24-1 against the Eastern Conference and 19-7 versus the Central division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Gimme the loot.
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January 9th, 2009 05:42 PM #5
The Hand of Justice
Jeff Benton
Well, we misfired on Oklahoma with the premium play on Thursday, but the free-pick streak rolled on as the Knicks got the spread-cover in Dallas. That’s now five freebie winners in a row, and I’m 38-16 with complimentary releases over the past 54 days. I’ll take that! For Friday, we’ll grab the points with the Celtics at the Cavaliers.
No question about it, all signs point to Cleveland in this contest. The Cavaliers are now percentage-points ahead of the slumping Celtics in the Eastern Conference playoff race, they’ve won all 18 of their home games (covering 14 of those contests), and they’ve cashed in six straight meetings with Boston and eight of the last nine.
But see, this is precisely why I like the defending champs tonight: After losing six of their last eight games, everyone is counting them out and few are giving them a chance to right the ship in Cleveland tonight. Big mistake. For one thing, you don’t ever underestimate the heart of a champion, especially with warriors like Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Also, this is a big-time measuring-stick game for the Celtics (for both teams, really), and Boston realizes that if it loses this one – particularly if it’s a blowout – then the doubters will really start coming out of the woodwork.
Another reason to support the Celtics: They haven’t been an underdog very often lately, but when they have been, they’ve produced, going 37-16 ATS in their last 53 games as a short. They’ve also taken six of the last nine SU against the Cavaliers, including a 90-85 win on opening night back in October in the season’s first meeting. This figures to be a 48-minute war between two very good teams, but I’m siding with the desperate, more talented squad that needs it more. Take the points.
4♦ BOSTON CELTICS
Matt Rivers
For Friday lay the wood with the Rockets.
Nostradamus
Fairfield -1
Niagara -13
Columbus +1.5 -120
Dwayne Bryant
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder +7
Wunderdog
Dallas at Phoenix
Pick: Phoenix -5.5
Bryan Leonard
Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls
PICK: Under
Greg Shaker
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Oklahoma City +6.5
Who2Beton
St. Louis Blues / Vancouver Canucks Under 5.5
Drew Gordon
New Jersey at MILWAUKEE -5
Love this match up for a Bucks team that's been quielty flying under the radar, despite being an excellent 24-12-1 ATS on this season, including 11-5 ATS at the Bradley Center! After dominating the Raptors Monday, the Bucks took their foot off the gas against the 76ers Wednesday and it cost them (110-105 loss). Look for Redd and company to get back on track tonight and here's why:
First, while Bogut likely misses this game with a back injury, its not like the Nets are without their own injury issues. G Devin Harris is dealing with a bad hammie, and while he could play, it remains to be seen how effective he can be. Speed is the name of his game, and with one bad leg, he'll be slowed up.
Second, the biggest disparity between these two teams is defense, plain and simple. Nets allow upwards of 101 ppg on 46% shooting when they travel (not particularly good). While the Bucks have been locking down the opposition at home, allowing just 93 ppg on 43% shooting! Jefferson and Mbah a Moute are both extremely athletic, and should easily win their match ups, while Redd will out play Carter, who's been known to struggle in hostile territory.
Finally, let's not forget the last time these two played. The Nets destroyed the Bucks at the Bradley Center 111-98 last April, and in fact, New Jersey has won and covered 4 straight in this series. Revenge isn't as strong in the NBA as in college, but you best believe a much improved Bucks team is looking to put an end to their losing streak against the Nets. Also, when you factor in their ugly loss to the 76ers Wednesday, I'm expecting a "max-effort" from the Bucks tonight at home.
Take Milwaukee over New Jersey in this NBA match up.
2* MILWAUKEE
Gimme the loot.
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