Saturday Service Plays

[TheFade]

Kevin Kavitch

Like I noted last week, Baltimore is my Super Bowl darkhorse and they are built to win in the playoffs. Excellent defense, a solid running game, and the attitude of a very dangerous team. Give the Titans credit for their record but I feel overall Baltimore is the better team and they have a greater amount of momentum. Tennessee lost their shine down the stretch and we're outgained by both Houston and Tennessee in their last 2 meaningful games. I get the feeling teams have learned how to attck their offense. Baltimore is now 10-2 SU and ATS and even though they lost in Tennessee by 3 early in the season, Flacco has improved greatly since then and they outgained the Titans by a significant margin, especially in the running game. That game will give them the confidence to know they can win here. I expect a close game that the Ravens win outright. Take Baltimore +3 for a 4* Regular Play.


Spylock

Baltimore 1 unit


Ben Burns

NFL Playoff GOY

TENNESSEE


Allen Eastman

$2000.00 Baltimore (+3) over Tennessee
The Baltimore defense looks every bit at strong as it did back in 2000 when it was winning the Super Bowl. They only lost by three points to the Titans earlier this season, but Tennessee was playing much better at that time. Now the Ravens have all of the momentum and I just don’t see the Titans being able to put up enough points to advance. Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games against the AFC and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Tennessee. The underdog is 13-4 ATS when these two meet and I think that the Ravens will be set to pound the Titans when they meet this weekend.

$600.00 ‘Over’ 34.5 Baltimore at Tennessee
The Ravens have been a solid ‘over’ team on the road this year, going 5-1-1 against the number in their last seven games. They are able to force turnovers with that defense and are good at turning those into points on the board. Now that this team has finally found a solid quarterback in Joe Flacco the offense is moving the ball and I can see them ringing up over 20 points by themselves in this one. I see this one ending around 24-14 in favor of the Ravens so we’ll play this one to go ‘over’ as well.

$300.00 Sweetheart Teaser:Baltimore (+13) and ‘Over’ 24.5 Baltimore at Tennessee and ‘Over’ 30.0 Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants


Dr Bob

2 Star Selection
CAROLINA (-9.5) 32 Arizona 14

Arizona was a good bet last week at home, but the Cardinals are in a tough spot this week against a rested Panthers team that applies to a very good 36-6 ATS playoff situation. Arizona played well here in a 23-27 week 8 loss as a 4 point dog, but Arizona didn't fair so well against other good teams away from home. The Cardinals played 4 road games against teams that ended the season with a winning record and they were blown out in 3 of those games – losing by 21 points at the Jets, by 28 points at Philadelphia, and by 40 points at New England – so don't put too much stock in the fact that Arizona played well here in week 8. Carolina played very well at home this season, winning their 8 home games by an average margin of 15.4 points and winning by 14 points or more against other .500 or better teams Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Denver and New Orleans on this field. Panthers' quarterback Jake Delhomme played much better at home (8.7 yards per pass attempt and a 100.8 QB rating) than he did on the road (7.3 ypa and a 71.4 rating) and I expect Carolina's balanced attack to perform well against a Cardinals' defense that gave up an average of 31 points on the road this season. Arizona's defense is actually slightly better than average if you exclude week 4 and 5 when star safety Adrian Wilson was out, but Carolina's attack is 0.9 yards per play better than average in the 14 games with star WR Steve Smith playing. Arizona does have an advantage with their offense (0.6 yppl better than average) going up against a Panthers' defense that is 0.4 yppl better than average, but the Cardinals' advantage disappears if WR Anquan Boldin can't play or is ineffective with this injured groin (I'll assume he's playing). My math model would favor Carolina by 9 ½ points under normal conditions but home field advantage is an additional 2.5 points in this round of the playoffs with the home teams coming off a bye, so Carolina by 12 points is what I get mathematically in this game. The 36-6 ATS situation that applies to Carolina makes the Panthers worthy of a play and I'll take Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less.

NFL Strong Opinions

NY GIANTS (-4.0) 24 Philadelphia 14

The Eagles are every bit as good as the Giants, but New York has had an extra week off and that has proven to be a significant factor in the playoffs. The oddsmakers started to adjust for the fact that home teams in this round performed better than expected and the road teams have actually covered more often in recent years. However, that has not been the case for teams that qualify in the 36-6 ATS playoff situation that applies to the Giants in this game. Philadelphia and New York split their two games this season, with the Eagles winning here in New Jersey in week 14, but teams with revenge are 15-0 ATS in that 36-6 ATS situation, so New York should be prepared to play well. Also, when division rivals meet in the playoffs the team that lost the most recent game is 23-8-1 ATS if the opponent has a win percentage of less than .700, which is the case here. These teams are even and my math model favors New York by 5 ½ points with the addition home field advantage for this round of the playoffs and the line has come down from -5 points to -4 points, so there is a little bit of line value on the side of New York in addition to the good situation. My only issue with this game is that the Eagles are 43-22-2 ATS as an underdog or pick under coach Andy Reid, including 5-1 ATS in the post-season. Philly is only 3-5 ATS as a dog or pick against a division rival with revenge, so that trend isn't enough to keep me away from favoring New York. It will, however, keep me from making the Giants at Best Bet at this price. I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion at -5 or less and I'd take the Giants in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 at -1.15 odds or better.

PITTSBURGH (-6.0) 24 San Diego 13

These teams played the only 11-10 game in NFL history in week 11 here in Pittsburgh, but that game should not have been that close. Pittsburgh dominated with 410 total yards at 5.7 yards per play to 213 yards at 4.3 yppl and I think they can do it again. The Steelers defense is the single most dominating unit in this game, allowing just 3.9 yppl for the season against a schedule of teams that would combine to averaged 5.3 yppl against an average defense. San Diego's offense was 0.6 yppl better than average for the season and I rate them at 1.1 yppl better than average with Darren Sproles at running back in place of the injured and washed up LaDainian Tomlinson. As good as the San Diego offense is with Sproles getting more touches, the Steelers' defense allowed more 4.8 yppl or more just one time all season (5.3 yppl at Tennessee) and should contain that attack. Pittsburgh isn't much offensively, averaging 5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack and the Chargers are average defensively, but my math model favors Pittsburgh by 5 1/2 points in this game, so the line is fair. The reason for siding with the Steelers is a 36-6 ATS playoff situation that applies to the Steelers in this game and a negative 4-21-1 ATS negative situation that applies to San Diego. The Chargers were able to win as a home underdog last week, but teams that win as a playoff home underdog are just 1-8 ATS on the road in their next playoff game. The reason I'm passing on this game as a Best Bet is because the Chargers are 19-3-2 ATS as an underdog the last 5 seasons, including 3-0 ATS this season. My research shows that teams trends are not nearly as predictive as general situations, so the technical analysis still favors the Steelers and I'll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -6 ½ or less.


TENNESSEE (-3.0) 17 Baltimore 14

There is no doubt that Baltimore is a better team than Tennessee right now, as the Ravens' defense has been the best in the league since star CB Samari Rolle returned to the lineup in week 10 and the offensive units are about the same, but home teams have a stronger than normal home field advantage in this round of the playoffs, and Tennessee by 3 points is a fair line. The Titans will have their two star defensive linemen Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth available to play this week and the Tennessee defense was 0.7 yards per play better than average in the 13 games in which they both played. Baltimore's offense is just average running the ball and average throwing the ball, so Tennessee's defense has an advantage in that match-up. The Titans are also mediocre offensively, rating at 0.1 yards per rushing play better than average and 0.2 yppl worse than average throwing it with Kerry Collins at quarterback (excluding their week 17 game against the Colts when they rested starters). That unit will also have a tough time moving the ball, as the Ravens' defense is 0.7 ypr better than average defending the run (3.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.3 ypr against an average team and an incredible 1.5 yards per pass play better than average with their current lineup in the secondary (since week 10 when Rolle came back and CB McAlister was put on IR). Overall, Baltimore is 1.1 yppl better than average defensively and the Ravens have an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game. My math model would have predicted this game even under normal circumstances, but home field advantage in this round of the playoffs, when the home team is rested, is 5 ½ points rather than the standard 3 points, so I get Tennessee by 2 ½ points mathematically. Playoff home teams that are coming off a loss are 39-22-1 ATS over the years, but that's the only significant playoff trend that applies to this game and I don't want to predict the Titans to win by more than 3 points since 3 is such a key number (nearly 10% of all games when the line is around 3 points are won by the favorite by exactly 3 points). I'll lean slightly with the Titans if the line drops to -2 ½ points and I have no opinion on the total (my math model actually projects 32.7 points, which is too close to the 34 point line to be worth betting).

[TheFade]

Scott Spreitzer

25* Titans


Doc

4 Unit Play.Take Baltimore Ravens +3 over Tennessee Titans


KELSO

NFL Playoff Game Of The Year

100 Units Titans (-3) over Ravens
Tennessee by 7-10

TV: CBS Comments: The first thing one must consider in this American Football Conference showdown is the weather, and it could be downright dreadful. The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain, with a game-time temperature of 45 degrees and with winds out of the west-southwest at 13 miles per hour. That might put the damper on a team that figured to be a low-scoring battle between two ball control teams. Baltimore comes into this game 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS while Tennessee is 13-5 and 12-4 in those categories, with the figures meaning both have played above expectations all season. However, there are three edges Tennessee, which beat Baltimore 13-10 in Baltimore in the fourth game of the season, has that I believe will make the difference. 1. While both teams have excellent running games, the efficiency of the quarterback is going to be a major factor—and Tennessee has a big edge with the grizzled and seasoned old pro in Kerry Collins. He is no world-beater but he does not make the mistakes that get teams beaten. As much respect as I have for Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco, he will be facing a one of the most aggressive defenses in the NFL and it has not been lost on me that he completed 9-of-23 passes for just 135 yards in last week’s playoff win over Miami. The Titans are no Miami, to say the least. 2. Tennessee had last week off to get ready for this while the Ravens had to play in the wild-card round at Miami. A rested team this deep into the season always has some edge. 3. Tennessee is at home. Both these teams play great defense, with Tennessee giving up just 14.9 points and 293.6 yards per game and Baltimore surrendering just 14.6 points 261.9 yards per outing. The quality of defensive play almost insures a close game and I believe the Titans have a far better chance of taking Flacco out of the game than the Ravens have of rattling Collins.


Al DeMarco

10 Dime - Titans

Baltimore is the pick here as the public was certainly swayed by its dominating defensive performance in an easy win at Miami last Sunday. The Ravens were my Best Bet in the Wildcard round, but let's not crown this team Super Bowl worthy yet. There's a big difference between taking on a Miami team with a mediocre ground game and average defense versus a Tennessee squad that excels in both areas.

Like every other game this weekend, this is a rematch as the Titans, despite getting outplayed, rallied for a 13-10 road victory in the season's first meeting in Week Five. With Chris Johnson held to just 44 yards on 18 carries, Tennessee needed Kerry Collins to lead its comeback and he delivered with the game-winning TD pass with 1:56 to play.

Baltimore is certainly on a roll, winning 10 of its last 12 straight-up, but when I review its schedule this year I see a team that failed repeatedly in "step-up" games. The Ravens lost by three and four points at home against Tennessee and Pittsburgh, respectively. On the road they lost by 20 to the Giants and three to the Steelers. The win at Dallas? I don't put much stock into it considering how the Cowboys totally collapsed down the stretch.

Tennessee struggled somewhat near the end of the season, playing .500 ball in its final six games. But the one contest that sticks out is the season's second-to-last game against Pittsburgh. The Steelers, who carried a five-game winning streak into the contest, were thoroughly dominated in a 31-14 loss. The Titans defense suffocated Ben Roethlisberger that day despite missing Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch. The anchors of their defensive line are both back today and ready to put the pressure on Joe Flacco, who struggled through an 18-for-27 performance at Miami in which he passed for only 153 yards and was intercepted twice.

Tennessee's defense might be a notch below Baltimore's statistically, but it's a solid stop unit nonetheless. And while the Ravens were wildly successful harassing Miami's Chad Pennington last Sunday, they will not find similar success against Kerry Collins, who has been sacked just eight times in 15 starts this season.

These teams are similar, both relying on strong ground games and stifling defenses. But the Titans have the more experienced quarterback, the homefield advantage plus extra rest courtesy of a first-round bye. Those factors should prove to be the difference against a Baltimore squad playing on the road for a second straight weekend and off a short week of rest and preparation.

Speaking of the line.... As I post this play late Thursday night, Tennessee - as has been the case all week - is a solid -3.

My advice: Same as the CEO's, why not buy the insurance, Buy it down making Tennessee a -2 1/2 point favorite so you get the win should Tennessee prevail by just a field goal. If you get stuck with -3 1/2, even after shopping around, buy down the 1/2 point to make Tennessee -3 so you get a push should Tennessee win only by three.

[TheFade]

Steve Budin

25 Dime Teaser - Carolina/Steelers 6 pt teaser



Frank Patron

First Ever 50000 Unit Lock

Baltimore Ravens +3


ATS Financial

3 Units Tennessee/Baltimore UNDER 34


ASA

3* Arizona

3* Eagles/Giants Under 40


ATS Lock Club
3 units Ravens +3
8 units Michigan St -7
8 units N . Iowa -6
7 units Arkansas -6
6 units BC -2
2 Unit round robin parlay the above 4
5 units Marquette -2.5

ATS Financial Package
4 units San Diego St -3.5
4 units Washington -4.5
4 units Rutgers +7

[dolfan101]

Anybody have brandon lang's play for today?